Against Copenhagen
Why we need to 'lose' at this week's climate summit if we are to win the fight against global warming.
'Planetary eco-conversion' is what's really needed.
[Editor's note: University of Victoria Environmental Law Professor Michael M'Gonigle has many friends and students going to Copenhagen, leaving him (like the rest of us) to watch from a distance. This is the first part of a "letter to a friend" who is going. More tomorrow. The Tyee will provide diverse coverage and discussion of the summit and has several bloggers there. Follow the posts from Copenhagen on The Hook.]
Hello JB,
So you've arrived in Copenhagen, and the "Be-In" of the 21st century has started. It would be great to be there, though the trip would probably double my carbon footprint for the year.
But I wouldn't be much help anyway. Who needs a naysayer? Who wants to hear doubts about the whole exercise? Who would listen to the suggestion that, without a transformative outcome, the best result would be a complete failure?
Read Tyee Reports from Copenhagen
The Tyee has several bloggers in Copenhagen. Follow their posts on The Hook.
They'd all ask, "Does this guy work for Exxon?"
Before you left, you wanted to discuss my justification for what seems to be a contradictory position. Like you, I am terrified and saddened at what climate change is doing to the Earth, and recognize that dramatic action is needed. But this is precisely why I take this position. We need to do it right, and Copenhagen is not on that track. We cannot afford to play still more games. It has been almost 20 years already since the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change treaty -- with only worsening conditions on the ground (and in the air). Why will this time be different? Sure, there's a lot more pressure, but it's still the same formula. And the same players.
We are in a tough spot. Environmentalists have done a phenomenal job at educating the public about climate change. We have cranked up a huge amount of political energy -- probably the greatest, most focused energy in the history of the movement. But we risk losing it on an agreement that is not just weak, but targeted on the wrong thing.
So here goes. I will do my best to lay out my contrarian position -- but be clear that I base it on strategy, not cynicism.
The only outcome that matters in the end is on how we can redirect this new energy to where it actually needs to be -- from the partial restraints of Copenhagen to full blown eco-conversion. Copenhagen is a story of many contradictions, but the need to "lose" at Copenhagen in order to expand the momentum for this conversion is the biggest of the bunch.
The problem with treaties
I am not pulling rank here, but my own (too long!) experience makes me very wary. As you know, I went to law school in the '70s with a goal of stopping whaling. When I graduated, and came back to Vancouver, the media was ablaze with photos of the Greenpeace zodiac between the Russian whaling ships and the whales. I soon found myself in the Greenpeace office on Fourth Avenue, where it was easy (in those early days) to convince a core group -- Bob Hunter, Pat Moore, and Paul Spong -- of my plan. Greenpeace had the world's attention -- but it wasn't where the decisions were being made at the International Whaling Commission. So, yes, they agreed, let's do it. And I had a job -- get us accredited at the IWC, be our delegate, and get a ban.
And so, I worked with Greenpeace (and others) over the next 20 years on a variety of international negotiations. I have also studied these treaties, and taught them, and I have learned a bit about what they can and cannot do.
For example, everyone today is freaked out about the leaked emails of last week that are throwing the climate science into question. (Interesting timing, eh?) Science is, they say, being politicized. Right. It has always been this way. The problem is that the real politics in science that I have experienced are on the other side. At the IWC, my biggest lesson came at my first meeting -- I was your age. A critical analysis of the reproductive rates of sperm whales in the North Pacific had shown that the proposed quota for the next summer should be slashed from 10,000 to 0. After a major struggle, and with only a handful of environmentalists in attendance, we got the cut! But with a caveat -- the science would be reviewed at a special follow-up meeting.
Sure enough, in Tokyo the following winter, the science was "revisited," and the quote was jacked back up. One variable was changed -- and the following summer, 10,000 whales were killed. But the effort that the whalers expended the next summer to find that dwindling population was so great that the hunt could no longer be justified, however much you fiddled the variables. The result was that the recovery of the sperm whales in the South Pacific was set back for many, many decades to come.
Now the upside is that we did get a moratorium -- one on long distance whaling in 1979, and a full commercial moratorium in 1982. So treaties can work, even though Japanese whalers are still whaling, operating under a phony "scientific" exemption (there it is again). Meanwhile, Japan repeatedly threatens to leave the International Whaling Commission.
But enough history. Here are some lessons that I have learned.
More problems with treaties
One is that our individual governments operate at these levels only in their perceived "national interest." This is the "collective action" problem. Canada, by the way, was one of the worst pro-whalers right up until the 1982 moratorium. So its bad reputation today has long preceded it, despite federal green-washing.
In these negotiations, what’s right for planetary health counts for almost nothing in comparison with what counts politically (and economically) at home. Why do you think there isn’t any global forests convention, though God knows, we need one. All forests are national, and all the negotiations even to discuss a treaty have produced more smoke and mirror than you will ever see over the next couple of weeks. Again, Canada is no supporter here; its concern for national sovereignty trumps its planetary responsibilities hands down.
As any international environmental lawyer will tell you, the results of treaty negotiations reflect the "lowest common denominator" of the states involved. (That denominator is economic.) The necessity of Copenhagen is to redefine that denominator, and push it way up. But such a goal is not on the table, because it is state delegates, not environmentalists, who draft the treaties, sign them and implement them (or not).
Yes, treaties can be effective, but there's another irony here. Their effectiveness is greatest when there is the least at stake. Like where there are only a few bad guys to control, or a low-cost solution at hand. At the Whaling Commission, there were only two long distance whalers -- Japan and Russia -- and it was still a huge battle.
And we were able to "solve" the problem of ozone depletion from CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) only because we could easily replace CFCs with a different refrigerant.
But in Copenhagen, these conditions don't exist. Everyone is more or less a bad guy because everyone contributes to climate change, and controlling it goes to the heart of every national economy.
'Well it's a first step' and other fallacies
There is another lesson that should cause real caution if it looks like something minimal is coming out of Copenhagen. Targets that are set as minimums end up becoming maximums. If science later points to the need for more aggressive action (as it has a habit of doing), no matter. It takes years, decades, a whole generation to bump up the targets. In other words, a weak treaty itself becomes an immovable object, so that overcoming it becomes a massive energy sink for the whole movement. Time is wasted.
If one were to be cynical, or realistic, this would help explain why so many world leaders support a treaty. It will provide a shield against more demanding political commitments, and sheathe the sword that might actually slay climate change. Given the minimal positions of the U.S., China, India and a host of other states (not to mention Canada), nothing more can be expected. Even Dr. Climate Science himself, James Hansen of NASA, is now saying that Copenhagen should fail. This is why.
So, when you start hearing "Well, it's a first step," it's time to shout "Fire!" and race for the exits. And take the voting delegates with you!
One last lesson: even minimal targets are meant to be missed. We have seen this with the Kyoto Protocol. But there is an even more telling example that is not yet big news. When the Framework Convention was agreed to in Rio in 1992, the other big achievement was the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD). The parties to the CBD -- the same governments at Copenhagen -- later set a fixed date and formally agreed to "achieve by 2010 a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national level." In their upcoming meeting next April, these parties will announce that they have been unable to meet these targets, and that there is no hope for doing so.
The elephant that is not even in the room
Speaking of the CBD, there's another big problem too -- biodiversity loss. And this unfolding global catastrophe is not related historically to climate change. And it's not the only one such problem.
You know the whole debate about the "hockey stick" -- the proposition that when you plot the increase over time in atmospheric greenhouse gases on a graph, the shape of the trajectory looks like a hockey stick, rising gradually over the decades then shooting up like a rocket in recent years. Well, the real issue here is not whether science supports this hockey stick graph. That whole debate is really a minor skirmish, and a diversion, because we are not talking about a single hockey stick, but a whole locker room full of hockey sticks!
If you were to pass around a single piece of information at Copenhagen, it should be the two pages of graphs at the beginning of an interesting book written by Gus Speth, this generation's leading environmental bureaucrat in Washington D.C. The book is The Bridge at the Edge of the World: Capitalism, the Environment, and Crossing from Crisis to Sustainability. Speth sets out 16 hockey stick graphs that portray increases in water use, in the damning of rivers, in CO2 concentrations, ozone depletion (hopefully now slowing down), rates of increase in average surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, the rising frequency of great floods, depletion of ocean ecosystems, loss of rainforests, biodiversity decline, increases in fertilizer and paper consumption, and the explosion in the number of motor vehicles.
And three others: growth in the size of the global economy (GDP), foreign direct investment, and population.
Together, these graphs -- all hockey sticks -- provide a single message. We are killing the earth in every way imaginable, getting rich in the process, and providing a model for a growing world population to join in on.
In short, the message is that we have a system problem, not just a climate problem. And, for me, this leads to two questions. First, can we solve a system problem by solving one aspect of it? Clearly not. But, you will say that climate change is hugely urgent (yes, it is), and it is going to make all those other problems worse (yes, it is). So we have to act on it now, and fast. This is understandable; this is the mantra.
But I would then ask you a second question -- can you solve one problem (climate) without addressing the underlying system problems driving it and all the others? Few, if anyone, with the power to make a difference in the hard negotiations is addressing this question, because the whole conference is premised on that answer being "Yes, we can." Unfortunately, the correct answer is "No, we can't."
Tomorrow: Bring in the elephants. ![]()





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crankypants
2 years ago
Hypocracy
If CO2 is such a big problem with respect to climate change, then why are we having meetings such as the one in Copenhagen? What will be the carbon footprint created by all those that make appearances? We've got the oficial delegations from various countries, provinces or states, media from a majority of these areas, and activists all making their way to Copenhagen. I doubt too many of them are walking or cycling to get there.
Has anyone ever heard of video-conferencing? If you want people to buy-in to something then it may be prudent to lead by example. The do as I say, not as I do concept will do little to convert the non-believers.
superjudge
2 years ago
brrrr
A little doubtful of Global Warming this morning as it's -16 here in Kelowna. But on the serious side, be careful of the wolves in sheep's clothing in Copenhagen...
Urbanismo
2 years ago
Well Crankypants you
Well Crankypants you certainly have that right: hypocrisy!
Environmental Law Professor Michael M'Gonigle has written a measured and responsible assessment to behavior that is anything but measured and responsible.
Multiple hockey sticks do not contribute to the conversation: all are "photoshopped" as is the Mann version.
With a Greenpeace pedigree he must know the futility of confronting "big business" of any logo: Irvin Stowe and Bob Hunter will be turning in their graves. The Phyllis McCormack is long gone Michael . . .
Now we have Copenhagen and money. I will not be there because I am not interested in making money off our woes.
Copenhagen is about cap-and-trade: just another ponzi.
Evidently we now know Obama is heavily invested in the Chicago Climate Exchange: he's got it right, for "himself"!
And that is the ethos we face "for himself".
Locally we must disabuse Mayor Gregor of his "Green" sustainable fantasy. Nothing is sustainable and his green region dream, Portland/Seattle/Vancouver is, at best, another excuse to junket first class at our expense. At worst a sleazy power grab.
Watching the mayor so far, the latter is unlikely but we all know, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
"Like you, I am terrified and saddened at what climate change is doing to the Earth, and recognize that dramatic action is needed."
Unlike you I am not scared " at what climate change is doing to the Earth . . . " I am scared by what we are allowing the power/money psychotics to do in our name . . .
And that is why Professor Hansen is right.
realisticman
2 years ago
crankypants
You don't have to go to Copenhagen, just grab a coke, save the world.
http://www.hopenhagen.org/cocacola
Fiat lux
2 years ago
The main cause of
The main cause of environmental degradation is the presently used, fraudulent definition of economic efficiency, basically as "the biggest monetary profits for the smallest monetary inputs", overruling the definition of physical efficiency as "the most work done with the smallest resource/energy inputs"
We can not have two contradicting definitions of the same principle within the same system and get away with it.
Of course, humanity has been practicing the same contradictions since the beginning of history. E.g. "Do not kill" in all religious and civil laws, then overruled by all societies always preparing for war and the mass murder of others to steal their resources.
The long and short of it is that as long we have imaginary monetary values governing our economies, we'll continue on our road to self destruction.
Especially now, when imaginary money, created from the air by a special interest sector has become the licence for the dictatorial control of the world's resources, taught in our universities as "economics".
As long as this racket is permitted to go on, there's no hope for any change for the better.
Money is an important economic factor we can not live without, but what goes on in the present, with the present monetary system licencing violence, crime and the destruction of the environment and humanity by the priesthood of economists in service of the Money God, is completely unacceptable and has to be stopped if we want to survive as a civilization
Ed Deak, Big Lake.
Van Isle
2 years ago
Well said Ed. As I commented
Well said Ed. As I commented last week, the psyco-paths are in charge and they don't care about the enviroment, pollution or any of the stuff; just making money and having power.
jwishart
2 years ago
I have read M'Gonigle in the
I have read M'Gonigle in the past and liked what I saw. This piece, however, was extremely unpalatable to me.
One can either be a purist or a realist, and M'Gonigle chooses to be the former here. If he thinks that there is a chance of a systemic change of our entire economic system, and that this change can occur in the timeframe that the upward trend in GHG concentrations demands, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I'd like to have him take a look at.
The Copenhagen summit is the only game in town, and to join forces with people like U.S. Senator James Inhofe in hoping that it fails is probably the worst thing that an "environmentalist" can do. We need to start reducing our emissions (now!), and negotiations at Copenhagen are an important step in this process. I absolutely agree that the targets are very unlikely to as strong as the science warrants; however, it's not an all-or-nothing problem and so every reduction we can make is a point to the good. It's just naive to think that a failure in Copenhagen will cause everyone to take a step back and say,"Ok, since we couldn't agree on how to limit GHG emissions, let's tackle the fundamental way that our economies work--I am sure we will all be able to agree on how this will be done." I am getting sick of hearing the much over-used adage to "not let the perfect be the enemy of the good," but it most certainly applies here.
I think that M'Gonigle is doing something both dangerous and dumb by writing this article. His authority is likely to divide the people who want action just when we need solidarity and provide fuel and cover for the delayers and deniers. His experience with negotiations and seeing how the real world actually works should have helped him see that academic wishful thinking is at best counter-productive and at worst disastrous (he decries at once the negotiations to end whaling before acknowledging that they worked in the end!) I hope that he sees this before writing his next piece, but I won't hold my breath (even if it would reduce my carbon footprint)...
Oh, and M'Gonigle is wrong about the "hockey stick": it's about the surface temperature record of the past 1000 years, not the level of GHG emissions.
KWD
2 years ago
"Everyone is more or less a bad guy ..."
Finally we get some much needed insight into the pschology around the issue of climate change rather than mindnumbing focus on on the legitamacy and value of statistics … an unwinnable debate … and the straw men start gathering.
Soon we will see yet another march down the streets of Obfuscatia, leaving a trail of annoying detritus and the attention will turn once again to the plight of the hollow men rather than the behmouth marching into Bethlehem.
"Here we go round the prickly pear
Prickly pear prickly pear
Here we go round the prickly pear
At [nine] o’clock in the morning."
Art the Green
2 years ago
patrick moore
I'd be skeptical too if I'd worked with patrick moore:
http://sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Patrick_Moore
seth
2 years ago
Easy Peasy
The world outside of Greenpeace is starting to realize that nuclear power is the only possible in time answer to our less than ten years away civilization ending peak oil and climate crisis.
A worldwide build of 10000 mass produced reactors would be payed for and would end fossil fuel use, air pollution, peak oil and global warming all at once. The worldwide build would be an excellent investment with less than three year paybacks financed by ending the use of fossil fuels. The industrial effort required would be only a small portion of current excess capacity.
Because of nuclear's financial benefits and air pollution elimination even Deniers would embrace the nuclear solution.
Because Greenpeace was so successful at replacing nukes with Big Coal power, they are responsible for the deaths of hundred of millions of people worldwide from lung disease. Suzuki in a paper a few weeks ago actually recommended we continue with radioactive toxic waste spewing coal plants killing hundreds of millions more as long the carbon is sequestered - a thoroughly discredited impractical and ultra expensive solution to GHG's.
Greenies with their renewable nonsense are working hard at Copenhagen against nuclear power to ensure nothing is done about Global warming or peak oil until billions are dead and civilization is shattered.
soleprobe
2 years ago
the moon is melting
I hope this collection of old-fart gasbags don't forget to mention at this summit the fact that the moon is made of cheese and it is in fact melting... We have a serious threat from lunar warming.
Such a valuable use of time and money by the world’s leaders at the expense of its citizenry. It gives a pretty accurate idea of just how efficiently this new global order will be managed.
Chris Keam
2 years ago
yeah, about that word controlling thing
Soleprobe:
You keep suggesting world government is the aim of climate change activism. That purported aim is going to be a bit hard to achieve though isn't it? Since most proponents of action against climate change actually support more self-sufficiency, more input and decision making at the regional level, and a return to locally-based economies wherever possible. In fact, it's quite obvious that action against climate change will for the most part decentralize the power structure, since the biggest impediment to local action for the environment is usually some globe-spanning corporation or WTO-type legislation.
Bruce Elkin
2 years ago
So, what do you propose, Michael?
Interesting and challenging piece, Michael. I agree with you that it is a "systems" challenge. But you shoot down the validity of COP15 without suggesting another way to approach the multiple hockey sticks. Where in the system do you propose to intervene? And how?
There is an immense amount of energy, especially in young people, growing around the climate change issue. They are often visionary, but not grounded firmly in the whole reality, and thus take actions that either merely bring them relief from the "problem" or are doomed to fail, and lead to depression, cynicism, and lack of energy.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on how to take on - or transcend - this systemic, multiple hockey stick challenge.
dorothy
2 years ago
There will more to riding than saying 'giddyup'.
“Environmentalists have done a phenomenal job at educating the public about climate change.”
Have they? News to me. There is a lot of panicky unsubstantiated claims; a lot of fancy graphs, where half of the information is missing to make them valid statistical statements, and then there is the blaming game, which to any sensitive person comes clearly out as thinly veiled misanthropy.
It is a fact that the Earth in the past has undergone climate changes up and down far more radical than what we have seen recently, for reasons no one has yet understood. There is lack of solid proof, or even any proof, that the present climate change – if it is there, is man-made, and that we can do anything to change it. Yet, the climate-change thing is fast turning into a really ugly religion, with all kinds of desires sticking out for severe punishments for heresy, as illustrated in the e-mails leaked. No, I’m not ‘freaked out. I am hearing no more than I suspected I would, were I a fly on the wall. But I’m not happy that I was right about that.
George Monbiot in the Guardian mentions “…the extraordinary pressure the scientists were facing from a denial industry determined to crush them..”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2009/nov/25/monbiot-climate-leak-crisis-response
I’m sorry, but I don’t have any patience with people who try to excuse wrongdoing and cheating with the difficulty of their job. When things are going well, they enjoy all the prestige and power and privilege their academic standing gives them. Their community supported them in achieving it, with the understanding that they would hold up their end of the deal by presenting things in an honest and accountable fashion. Then they cannot whine about how hard it is in the moments where they must pay their dues.
All I can say is: I have never met an ‘environmentalist’ I liked, simply as a human being, one who showed respect for others instead of disgust, impatience, arrogance. If there really is climate change that we have made, and we fail to address it, and we perish together as a consequence, I will lay the blame squarely on the doorstep of the ‘environmental’ movement. No one can present a concern to fellow human beings in the style they’re doing it, and expect to be heard.
Soc
2 years ago
Get over it. Hypocrisy is an
Get over it. Hypocrisy is an unfortunate but undeniable part of the human condition. For example, why does Michael continue to work at a University whose policies he apparently loathes? Lots of good reasons, I assume. Some probably financial. Others probably not. The point is, if we're going to deal with this crisis (ahem, these crises...), we must look deeper into the root causes of why there is so much resistance to change. Many of them are due to vested, powerful interest (ie. money). Others, however, speak to what many people desire in life: job security, comfort, economic and political freedom. This is what keeps electing conservative and liberal governments in Canada. As soon as you start trying to redirect jobs, reduce consumption, slap a tax here and a regulation there, people get kinda pissed, because it gets in the way of these freedoms they've learned to expect from modern, first world life. That's where summits like Copenhagen may be beneficial; to show the public that, yeah, even the major power brokers are looking a little concerned, not just all the environmentalist lawyers, students, and activists out there. Of course, I agree with M'Gonigle that the complex, many-faceted nature of the ecological crisis has the potential of being swept under the rug by events likes Copenhagen. However, I disagree with him in calling for a complex, many-faceted solution to these crises, moral quips aside.
worldofplenty
2 years ago
Climategate is the real news, not Copenhagen
The Tyee has missed the real news here, it is Climategate, the hacked email incident that may save us all trillions of dollars of badly allocated climate fraud fighting dollars. Blink twice and you miss it....The traditional news media are hushing it up, the UN is hushing it up and so are most governments.
Global warming is a fraud and people are starting to find out about it. For the first time in several years, journalists are starting to use the word skeptic instead of denier to describe people that do not believe in global warming being caused by humans.
In a few years, we will all laugh at the massive fraud of human caused climate change, and cry about what we could have done with all the money wasted on it.
Here is one good quote of many from a hacked email:
- From Phil Jones, head of the Climatic Research Unit at East Anglia University, to Ray Bradley, Michael Mann, and Malcolm Hughes, three U.S. scientists who have produced the controversial "hockey-stick graphs" that purport to show rapidly increasing temperatures in recent decades. Nov, 16, 1999.
"I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i. e. from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline."
Read more: http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=2258373#ixzz0Z1vo9wK3
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Hook
2 years ago
The arrogant elephant
I couldn't agree more. The underlying systemic problem is the arrogant elephant. The elephant??? Too many humans on the planet. This is where all topics concerning environmental degradation lead. I hope this will be addressed in your next installment.
bakoonin_mik
2 years ago
Dorothy serves as a perfect case
Dorothy serves as a classic example of how the climate denial PR machine is winning over science. I don't blame Dorothy, she is a layperson caught in the mucky mire of PR confusion being spread by big oil and friends.
The reason scientists have stopped engaging deniers (i.e., appearing to have stopped educating the public), is because they've made a calculated, scientific decision that when there is no debate, there is no sense in debating. Here's Dr. Andrew Weaver's take:
"We, as a community of international scientists, are refusing to continue to engage anymore in these false debates, because there isn't one. If we do, then they say there is a debate and they've won the PR game."
Scientists are not in the business of PR, nor should we expect them to be in that business, but the need to better communicate the science is clearly pressing.
Here's what PR guru James Hoggan says:
"In 35 years of public relations, I have never seen anything close to the magnitude of this current manipulation of the media. It is my view that the climate denial PR machine is working extremely well and we need to stop it. We cannot have the energy industry shaping the policy on climate change."
Hoggan is not a scientist, and even says he's not even an environmentalist, but he knows slick, effective PR when he sees it.
A lot of people, like Dorothy, say they don't buy the climate change science because they don't "see it." As Weaver notes, this misconception relates to confusing weather and climate. Not the same things at all. The big oil/energy PR machine has done just this, led us into such nonsense that has us saying, "it's so cold this winter, how could there possibly be climate change?"
dorothy
2 years ago
Speak for yourself
"Hypocrisy is an unfortunate but undeniable part of the human condition."
Maybe for some, but not for those of us who like to be able to meet our own eyes in the mirror and sleep nights without benzodiazepines.
"..the root causes of why there is so much resistance to change. Many of them are due to vested, powerful interest (ie. money). "
There is no 'resistance to change', just a demand to see the proof and substance of the claims, based on which change is advocated. This ain't a matter of belief, I should hope, but of science, and for that we have scientists. If they cannot give substance to the claims, I am afraid you will have 'resistance'. It should really be good news that people are not endlessly gullible, but asking for substance, shouldn't it, rather than a fly in the ointment?
"..even the major power brokers are looking a little concerned, not just all the environmentalist lawyers, students, and activists
out there.."
Hee, hee. I have long ago learned that the 'major powerbrokers' may have many and varied reasons to look a little concerned, most of which have absolutely nothing to do with my daily grind. Their lives are so complex and far removed from my neck of the woods, that I would not break my head over them looking concerned, however much or little.
"...job security, comfort, economic and political freedom. This is what keeps electing conservative and liberal governments in Canada."
Nope. I don't expect those governments, any more than their counterparts, to hand me these things on a silver platter. The difference is that I know precisely to what extent I cannot count on them to give me anything, as well as exactly where they'll clip and snip it. With the other guys - they strike me as similar to this fancifully designed critter on the recent show 'defying gravity', the fractal beastie, who swirled and twirled around itself and changed color all the time, while emitting a strange, haunting song. You never know where they are in their mystical cycle.
I'm sorry to so dissect your posting, but it just seems to me you are assuming you know how people think, and maybe you are being a touch condescending and counting on people being slightly more underdogs than they really are. I think more respect for the common man and woman is what this calls for, not any kind of spin or fix. There you probably have your 'root cause'. People can handle that you tell it like it is, with evidence to back it up. They can't handle being handled by another breed of peddlers of some religion.
Dr Alexander
2 years ago
bakoonin_mik So you are quoting...
a pro-Global Warming PR Hack that is warning us about anti-Global Warming PR Hacks.
Now, that is very funny.
Almost as funny as "if we refuse to debate, then there is no debate and thus we can say the debate is over"
I would like to haul that back to my family farm.
patrickC
2 years ago
Depressing
Its really depressing to read most of these angry comments, especially when in nominal response to Michael M'Gonigle and his thoughtful, and grounded in deep experience, article. Michael is a man who has A plus street cred for walking the talk. For a whole lifetime now. Its bleak. Very bleak.
dorothy
2 years ago
Gee thanks ('blush')
"Dorothy serves as a perfect case"
No one has ever called me 'perfect' before. This is so much more profound than someone slavering over my eye color!
But I would RESPECTFULLY submit that it is not your prerogative to blame me or otherwise, as I have left that with my Gods, who, in contrast to many other such ones, have a keen understanding of entropy.
I am really incensed at your arrogant assumption that I must be a 'lay' person, since I don't agree with you on matters that I now more and more recognize as religious in nature.
You are quite wrong. I understand scientific principles very well, which is why I adhere to them in my query. I am aware that 'weather' is not the same as 'climate', as I learned that in Geography in grade 6 and still remember.
I am not convinced, because I haven't seen anything to convince me. Your rhetorical tidbits from gurus, who are neither scientists nor environmentalists, but nevertheless claim to know all there is to know about who are the villains of the piece, make me yawn. Like all other sermons, they don't convince me. Had you offered even one scientific paper, one book that contains other than rhetoric and massaged hockey-sticks, I would maybe sit up and take notice. As it is...I think that out of the two of us, you are the 'case'.
Dr Alexander
2 years ago
Chris, soleprobe is not far off.
World taxation based on carbon usage is probably more to the mark.
If you control tax money, and you are not elected, you control everything.
Urbanismo
2 years ago
Against Copenhagen
Well Crankypants you certainly have that right: hypocrisy!
Environmental Law Professor Michael M'Gonigle has written a measured and responsible assessment to behavior that is anything but measured and responsible.
He is right to be against Copenhagen, although multiple hockey sticks do not contribute to the conversation: all will "photoshopped" as is the Mann version.
With a Greenpeace pedigree he must know the futility of confronting "big business" of any logo: Irvin Stowe and Bob Hunter will be turning in their graves. The Phyllis McCormack is long gone Michael . . .
Now we have Copenhagen and money. I will not be there because I am not interested in making money off our woes.
Cap-and-trade is just another ponzi.
Evidently we now know Obama is heavily invested in the Chicago Climate Exchange: he's got it right, for "himself".
And that is the ethos we face "for self".
Locally we must disabuse Mayor Gregor of his "Green" sustainable fantasy. Nothing is sustainable and his green region dream, Portland/Seattle/Vancouver is, at best, another excuse to junket first class at our expense. At worst a sleazy power grab.
Watching the mayor so far the latter is unlikely but we all know, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
"Like you, I am terrified and saddened at what climate change is doing to the Earth, and recognize that dramatic action is needed."
Unlike you I am not terrifed " at what climate change is doing to the Earth . . . " I am terrified by what we are allowing the power/money psychotics to do in our name . . .
And that is why Professor James Hansen is right to call for Copenhagen to be cancelled.
Urbanismo
2 years ago
Pissed off
So, I see your system still cannot deal with Safari repeating.
I do not appreciate having my posts deleted just because your web master cannot correct an error in your system . . .
Please get with it . . .
Rex Weyler
2 years ago
M'Gonigle nails it
M'Gonigle nails it
Sorry, for those who feel hope is shattered by this reality, but ecology -- earth, energy, sun, water, biology -- has its own rules. One of these rules is that things and groups of things cannot grow forever. Our underlying system -- as M'Gonigle points out -- requires that we believe the impossible: endless growth.
The under lying humanh global economic system of production and consumption and waste is indeed the problem and neither Copenhagen nor all the Corporate "Sustainability Managers" in the world won't change that.
Thanks for speaking the tough truth, Michael.
Rex Weyler.
Chris Keam
2 years ago
Dr Alexander
'not far off' at the start of the journey usually means way, way off by the end. Starting from the idea that climate change is bogus and efforts at remediation are a ploy for economic control by shadowy Mustapha Monds leaves one making claims that aren't supported by the evidence... and certainly don't conform to the Occam's razor approach.
soleprobe
2 years ago
Hook, your desires regarding the elephant may still be achieved
Hook, biofuel production resulting from climate policy has already starved millions of people to death. Once climate policy is implemented globally it will result in a billion or more people starving to death. So don’t worry, the desired end result of the climate summit will achieve the desired ultimate aims of the climate agenda and fulfill your desire for a massive and rapid reduction in the size of the elephant: the death of over a billion of the world’s poor.
The environmental do-gooders of Tyee don’t appear to be too concerned about the starving to death of over a billion of the world’s poor resulting from climate policy since I haven’t seen one article and few posts concerning the millions that have already starved to death from climate policy.
They sure love to use their brown faces, while they are still alive, in their advertisements to promote the climate change agenda though.
Dr Alexander
2 years ago
Chris "Mustapha Monds"?
I don't read enough Desmog Blog to know the conspiracy theory about this guy.
With regards to Occam's Razor, well, follow the money usually works for me. Why else would Shell Oil be a supporter of Hadley CRU?
worldofplenty
2 years ago
growth is the problem and will not be solved in "carbonhoggin"
yes, endless population growth is the real problem the world faces. but this is not a problem in the developed world where birthrates are below replacement levels, but in the third world where they are far above replacement levels. all climate change devotees should by definition be anti immigration (from the third world to the first) because as soon as they come over here and start livin' high on the hog they start emitting more greenhouse gasses from their ars*s like we do. the greenhouse gas problem will solve itself if we can get third world population growth levels down AND stop them from coming here (to the developed and rich west). unfortunately most greenhouse gassers are too politically correct or brainwashed by al gore to want to stop third world immigrants from trying to better themselves at the planet's expense.
PWB
2 years ago
You all still don't really get it!
The real cause of our total environmental dilemma, and the hockey stick that no one cares to mention, is quite simply OVERPOPULATION!!!! That is precisely why Kyoto, Copenhagen and Timbuktu whatever, will have no appreciable effect on reducing global warming or the decline in biodiversity or the consumptive demise of the planet as we now know it. Every one of the major problems that mankind faces today is directly attibutable to the fact that there are simply too many of us for the earth to support. Never before in the history of mankind have there been so many of us to feed, cloth and house. The last time I looked, there doesn't seem to be any shortage of 'us' on the horizon either.
It is my contention that unless we seriously and effectively deal with this issue in a non-religious and sensible manner, our future as a civilization on this planet looks exceedingly bleak.
caikman
2 years ago
Isn't it simple, really?
Sure, the world has lots of other crises. But most of them relate back to our primary crisis: our use of energy. We can't solve ANY of the other crises without solving that one!
Is it that hard really? All we need to do is shift from fossil to sustainable (free) energy. We have most of the technology to do this already. What we need is politcal will.
Janie Jones
2 years ago
Blood and Gore
I see Tzeporat has flown off to Copenhagen.
Should we splat a polar bear on the sidewalk in front of the Flack Block in her honour?
Janie Jones
2 years ago
Blood and Gore
I see Tzeporat has flown off to Copenhagen.
Should we splat a polar bear on the sidewalk in front of the Flack Block in her honour?
anetaua
2 years ago
I share in your scepticism
I share in your scepticism on Copenhagen. http://www.vancouverobserver.com/politics/2009/12/06/step-canada-climate-change-its-gettin-hot-here-students-foreign-policy-camp-say
Hook
2 years ago
M'Gonigle nails it
Good to read an opinion without it being overly demonstrative with anger, accusation or assumtion. I look forward to M'Gonigle's next article.
worldofplenty
2 years ago
PWB i agree overpopulation is the real problem
But overpopulation doesn't give politicians or NGOs or Environmental groups any funding. Climate change is a false crisis created by humans and it making some people VERY rich. The real problem in the world is third world population growth, since the first world population would shrink if it was not for immigration (we are below replacemnt level). As our technology advances we will eventually wean ourself from hydrocarbons anyway.
I reiterate: The West is not the problem: The third world and its greedy population growth at the expense of the world is the problem along with the left wing liberals who promote immigration into Canada and the west to relieve to population pressures of the third world.
record
2 years ago
Right On Rex
Quote:
The under lying human global economic system of production and consumption and waste is indeed the problem and neither Copenhagen nor all the Corporate "Sustainability Managers" in the world won't change that.
--------------------
The problem in a nutshell. Copenhagen is a farce since it will not deal with this problem, and anthropogenic assisted climate change is only a symptom of a problem, not the problem.
The human population is currently consuming at a rate greater than the biosystem's ability to sustain it, so much so that if all of the greatest consumers were vaporized, about a billion, the rest would still be over consuming on average. Greener energy sources and other more ecofriendly practices will not help unless the overall demand on the system is reversed, and reversed considerably.
If we wish future generations to have anywhere near the average per capita rate of consumption currently enjoyed in the developed world, those generations will probably have to be a third or less in size than the present population. And, an economic system will have to be in place that values stasis, not growth.
dorothy
2 years ago
Not pissed off, more like embarassed...
I am not doing the safari thing, neither at my keyboard nor on the Serengeti...
But I see I got 'a double' in there. What happened is, I went back and forth between a weird screen telling me the session had timed out, and one that looked like the page I had just left, with my post still sitting there un-posted. So I managed to do so twice without quite knowing how that happened. You're certainly welcome to delete one of them, I promise not to get pissed off.
dorothy
2 years ago
Yeah, but...
"...an economic system will have to be in place that values stasis, not growth."
Well, now wouldn't that tend to put us in an adversarial relationship with those philosophies that have it on their agenda to win supremacy by out-breeding the rest of us?? Those that keep their women barefoot, pregnant and in the kitchen or some version thereof?
record
2 years ago
It would
An adversarial relationship with any who think that they have a right to reproduce unconditionally, with any trying to dominate through reproduction, and with any economic system built on growth and the fantasy that wealth can be created.
Dr Alexander
2 years ago
"an economic system that ... values stasis"
It does get me to thinking if The Suzuki Foundation and Greenpeace would prefer to be static or prefer to grow.
If they could ever say: "I think we are big enough", then I could believe that business could do the same.
Hook
2 years ago
anetaua. Isn't it simple, really?
Actually no, it unfortunately is not. While our technology may help us shift from fossil fuels it will also promote the the underlying belief that the human species can continue to "grow" without limits.
For myself what is simple is it takes more food to sustain more humans and while the topic is about climate change, 6.8 billion humans - and counting -is related and often not recognized as inextricably from the issue. I think M'Gonigle is pointing this out when he poses "can you solve one problem (climate) without addressing the underlying system problems driving it and all the others?" I am sure there are many opinions as to what the underlying system problems are and I only proffer my own as it strikes me that it gets little recognition. I have little faith that global leadership can deal with the very real problem of convincing the world's cultures that humans must learn to drastically reduce procreation! Notwithstanding I believe it is possible to make systemic changes locally, and successful change at this level can lead...
Urbanismo
2 years ago
QED
http://eclipptv.com/viewVideo.php?video_id=8790
Dr Alexander
2 years ago
patrickC says that Micheal M'Gonigle has got street cred
Well, so did Jones.
Up until about a week ago.
lynn
2 years ago
Ineffective Band-aids.
Great article.
It reveals how the world is operating at every level now....lurching from one ineffective so-called temporary solution to another....
No one seems to care a whit about real effectiveness.
Certainly not the cowardly, unimaginative, walking dead posing as leadership these days. KWD nails it when quoting TS Eliot of how obfuscation, the endless delay and muddle of it, now rules the day, yup, here we go....."round and round the prickly pear"...'til we all fall down.
As M'Gonigle writes
Quote:
"If one were to be cynical, or realistic, this would help explain why so many world leaders support a treaty. It will provide a shield against more demanding political commitments, and sheathe the sword that might actually slay climate change."
Ironically, it's "the shield" itself that has become effective.
Shielding ourselves from commitment we seem to do rather well.
At our tragic peril.
As M'Gonigle suggests when that happens real solutions don't then stand a chance.
And in that regard, my God, this is the best statement of all:
"But I would then ask you a second question -- can you solve one problem (climate) without addressing the underlying system problems driving it and all the others? "
Isn't this THE question that must be taken on in every arena of life that needs to be addressed of late.
Endlessly tinkering with the parts just doesn't cut it anymore.
The system is killing us. It's a lemon.
It must change. WE must change it....and ourselves.
steve.a.parr
2 years ago
whats the strategy then? and my take:
didn't see much strategy in his article.
too much smart-sounding cynicism. i appreciate that it's well-earned by his amazing experiences and vastly more detailed knowledge of the subject area than most.
i don't believe that Copenhagen will fix anything or will necessarily be a "good first step" (which seems to imply that this is a linear process rather than the system, value and consciousness-shifting course that I simply must believe humanity is engaged in - I don't see how we'll make it otherwise).
i do believe that it is absolutely vital that we throw our energies into Copenhagen and all other opportunities to galvanize and deepen social engagement with climate change issues. not haphazardly and certainly with discernment, to be sure, but consistently and pnately. this is the defining issue of our age precisely because it's resolution depends upon big C cultural shifts, shifts that ultimately are in everyone's better interest and I am optimistic will profoundly serve our species and all life.
im probably around students too much, but seems like a lot of creativity and good ideas can come when a deadline is pending ...
thoughts prayers support and muffins to all those devoting their energies in Copenhagen to reshaping this world. don't despair if it doesn't work out like you think it does, your sustained passion matters a whole lot more than any outcome.
Soc
2 years ago
Re: Speak for Yourself
I admire your steadfastness in pursuing the “proof and substance of the claims” as a prerequisite for change. Debate about anthropogenic climate change has been raging since the early 70’s, with persuasive claims on either side of the debate. Though, as an environmentalist I am evidently biased, I too am opposed to arrogant, fear-mongering, “religious-style” arguments on either side of the debate.
Uncertainty will always be part of any public policy decision. However, this is exactly why we should be doing something about climate change. As suggested by Elizabeth May and The Economist, strong climate policy is like putting insurance on the planet. At relatively minimal costs we can avert potential catastrophic costs, all the while reaping benefits to the health of our communities, ecologies, and economies.
Up until recently, American taxpayers have been paying more on the Iraq war yearly than it has been estimated to prevent climate change (as predicted by economist Nicholas Stern). This is excluding the un-renderable value associated with preserving natural ecologies and animal life (including humans). Meanwhile, the decision to enter the Iraq war was swift and absolute –hardly the 30 odd years of climate debate- and ultimately based upon faulty “intelligence.” Yet, the political will existed, arguably due to the “vested powerful interests (ie. Money)” that I spoke of before. These same vested interests are preventing a less costly (a bargain both in terms of money and human life) solution to an entirely more sinister problem, in the face of more convincing scientific evidence.
Contrary to what you suggest, I am not “assuming that I know how people think”; I am simply trying to make sense of what I observe in the world around me. As you have suggested, people are asking hard questions about what should be done about climate change. I feel that this is reflected in the resistance to change exhibited in the general public. This is at least partially tied to the fact that any policy aimed at resolving climate change will ultimately affect people's livelihoods. If it didn’t, we wouldn’t be having this debate at all (or am I assuming this too?). However, in the developed world we are also faced with the triple burden of deciding what is best for ourselves while also considering how these decisions will affect other human beings (including those in the developing world) and natural ecologies themselves.
As far as Hypocrisy goes, I was simply trying to illustrate that the problem goes deeper than the hypocrisy of the “political and economic elites”, as some have suggested, but is systematic, including the choices made by each and every one of us in our daily lives. The world is full of beautiful contradictions, of which I am apart, and only by recognizing our own occasional hypocrisies can we come to a deeper, more complex understanding of what it means to be human and deal with the problems we face.
KWD
2 years ago
the hypocracy runs from top to bottom
Because oil and it’s countless derivatives … society’s foundation cornerstones … have become the lifeblood of modern industrialized society, any suggestions of drastically reducing, much less removing, oil from important god-appeasing sectors like the transportation sector, are viewed as somewhat heretical or treasonous. Those that plead for mercy are marched kicking and screaming to the denialist’s sacrificial altar.
Requesting leave to plead reason to higher levels not only threatens that which feeds the ‘gods’, it threatens the lifestyles of those that sharpen the knives and keep the ‘gods’ happy. But sadly, even the still throbing heart, held in the hands of those wishing to join the ‘enlightenment’, will not be enough to quell their ‘gods’ anger.
As a result, not only will very few people willingly release their grip on that which makes their lifestyles possible, and enjoyable, they will, in the face of any reasonable proposition that suggests we may be on the path to global calamity and much pain, deny that their behaviour … rounding up the heretics for slaughter … has anything to do with the problems.
It is because of this far reaching dependence on oil, and its inescapable and undeniable relationship to pleasure, and pain, that we see such a pronounced and profound level of denial in public opinion.
The truth is, the strength of the climate change denial cabal is a function of the enormity of individual complicity.
dorothy
2 years ago
By the Book
“…strong climate policy is like putting insurance on the planet.”
OK, so it’s a feel-good thing. Then let’s treat it as that, instead of an all-stops-out-backs-against-the-wall kind of panic, which would seemingly require at least the War Measures Act and justify spewing hatred at each other for ‘over-consumption’ seen in snapshots out of context.
This will give us time to really consider, in the cold light of the morning after all the placards and the hype is gone, what we need to do.
Here is my number one on the list:
Getting the ‘climate’ (read: frivolous overgrowth in a struggle for supremacy and the creation of a marginal market) changed start with harmonizing the religions.
Why must we have the religions dealt with? Because they no longer serve the purpose for which they were created: crowd control. We are down to water cannon and tazering and nightsticks. The monotheistic religions are now evil kabbals with lives of their own, the hiearchy of which operate like another sort of gangsters. They are in the way of everyone understanding that we all share this globe and there is no win-lose game that will be other than ‘lose’ for all. Therefore, those parts of the scriptures that do not serve our purpose, to take ourselves into a leaner, cleaner, more orderly and genuinely more peaceful future, must be removed. All kinds of aggressive statements of supremacy and denigration of others, which is in reality hate speech but enjoy an unlawful protection under a misguided interpretation of Freedom of Religion, those must simply go, both from the books and from the minds and hearts. Same goes of course for current economic schools of thought, both Rand-ism and Marxism, as they were parts of the mix that put us in the fix. Something new and far more pragmatic is required, something characterized by intelligence rather than by dogma.
Cynic
2 years ago
Absolutely, it's the
Absolutely, it's the underlying system that is the core problem, not climate change per se. And who chose the system? Not me. Not you. The power elite.
We can make all the personal psychological changes we want, all the personal lifestyle changes we want, and it matters not a whit. Power doesn't care, power doesn't even notice. No hope, no change. The only thing power notices is a threat to the status quo, to itself.
What would threaten the status quo? People talking about the underlying system, the system set up by the elite, the system that gives them the power: money and banking. Where does money come from? Can you imagine what would happen if this was the core topic of discussion, on the front pages and in the blogs? Very soon, the people would begin to assert their will against the psychopaths. That would bring genuine change.
dorothy
2 years ago
But of course...
"...It is because of this far reaching dependence on oil, and its inescapable and undeniable relationship to pleasure, and pain, that we see such a pronounced and profound level of denial in public opinion."
You cannot convince people of anything by scolding them and slamming their morals and intelligence. Of course it is harder to convince people of anything, if they have something invested in the status quo. But then you should have known that anddone the homework better. Want to scale a straight-up cliff and leave half of your gear at home? Your fault, not the fault of the cliff.
In fact, You make me angry at you and your compadres for botching something perhaps vitally important. Maybe you took up space for others, who would have done a proper job of it. Go someplace else for band-aids for your scraped knee
dorothy
2 years ago
You can do that now
"Very soon, the people would begin to assert their will against the psychopaths"
Very simple: don't give them more of your money than you can absolutely help. Don't be a good little consumer. Learn how to darn socks and repair stuff yourself. Grow your food. reuse, reduce, recycle. Get over your induced disgust at reusing a piece of dental floss. Also remember my list of ingenious uses for old numbers of the Vancouver SUN. And so on. That's exerting your will in a way they will feel if enough people do so. More powerful than talk.
From the broken record label, at no charge...
frank2
2 years ago
steve/a/parr has it right. I
steve/a/parr has it right. I look forward to Michael's positive suggestions in tomorrow's installment.
Dr Alexander
2 years ago
Actually, M'Gonigle hits in on the nose with this comment:
"They'd all ask, "Does this guy work for Exxon?"
And that is the problem. If you are not singing off the IPCC crib notes, if you are not parroting the Suzuki/Greenpeace/Gore/May line, if you are not in complete conformity with whatever the "Go Green" flavour of the week is, then:
"Does this guy work for Exxon?"
So, M'Gonigle recognizes that the AGW gang have their head buried so deep in carbon that any diversion from the Message cannot be tolerated.
BTW. It seems that Berman is going to Copenhagen, and Gore is canceling his trip to Copenhagen. I wonder if the two events are related.
Dr Alexander
2 years ago
BTW, anyone wonder why...
WE have not seen a draught document?
If it is so warm and fuzzy and is going to save us from reaching the tipping point, one would expect the Copenhagen folks, and especially our elected representatives, to let us know what the Day One draught document is. You know, the one that is placed in front of the them the moment they sit down.
Perhaps Prof. Jones will put it on his Hadely server.
RickW
2 years ago
DOROTHY
Yes, this is true. It is also true that, unlike the past, the world today has some 7 billion people -- none of whom want to die! And it is also true that during any of these radical changes, life (human and otherwise) was depleted to the point and beyond, of extinction.
That is the real concern of most people. Few care if the air stinks and the water is dirty - as long as they can hang on to life.
RickW
2 years ago
From the Monday edition of CBCs The Current:
The Voice sums it up quite nicely.
http://www.cbc.ca/thecurrent/2009/200912/20091207.html
It's Monday, December 7th.
Today marks the opening of the global climate-change summit in Copenhagen.
Currently, this means that countries around the world will soon learn what bold new proposals to save the earth they can ignore.
This is The Current.
ME2
2 years ago
Voodoo science.
I'm glad that this thread is prompting discussion of what lies at the very root of our multivariate environmental problems, as summarised (well enough for me, anyway) by Cynic.
Re the appeals to Occam's Razor above, Wiki offers this as part of of its definition:
"The principle is often expressed in Latin as the lex parsimoniae (translating to the law of parsimony, law of economy or law of succinctness). When competing hypotheses are equal in other respects, the principle recommends selection of the hypothesis that introduces the fewest assumptions and postulates the fewest entities while still sufficiently answering the question. It is in this sense that Occam's razor is usually understood."
This whole hypothesis of "Global Warming" - oops - "Global Change", began with the assumption that over a certain percentage in the atmosphere, CO2 can act as a greenhouse gas. AFAIK, to date there is no verifiable science to prove at what level this effect kicks in, or where it did in the past. Everything so far is strictly hypothetical.
To date, the main enviro argument has rested upon the Precautionary Principle in which the most terrible effects are posited as "sure things" if we refuse to see the imminent danger they want us to see.
So much for Occam's Razor, this is just religion. No damn wonder we're being led to worship at the sacrificial altar of Cap and Trade.
soleprobe
2 years ago
first of a series of climategate cover-ups
Well it’s no surprise 95% of the commentaries, including the article, are on the same page:
Cover-up climategate, cover-up climategate, cover-up climategate....
Distract, distract, distract....
Polarize, polarize, polarize....
I assume this is the first of "a Tyee Series" of climategate distractions leading up to Copenhagen.
This approach would be very effective if many of the uninformed still came to Tyee to get their facts. And that vital pool of the uninformed is shrinking daily, especially after the recent climategate scandal.
It’s amazing all the work that is necessary: the constructing and orchestration of articles and commentaries to distract, cover-up, polarize, all for the purpose of covering up lies. The truth, however, requires such little effort to be exposed…. Just a single click of a mouse…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ydo2Mwnwpac
…and the whole Tyee house of cards along with its “series” of orchestrated articles and commentaries suddenly comes crashing down.
Thank God for the Internet and the intrinsic power of truth.
North of Hope
2 years ago
worldofplenty
You talk about the word "trick" used by one of the scientists. And you used "The National Post" as your source.
From “Climatologists under pressure” at
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v462/n7273/full/462545a.html
"One e-mail talked of displaying the data using a 'trick' — slang for a clever (and legitimate) technique, but a word that denialists have used to accuse the researchers of fabricating their results."
You should get some better sources.
KWD
2 years ago
I wonder if I've fallen down the rabbit hole?
“Let me think. Was I the same when I got up this morning? I almost think I can remember feeling a little different. But if I'm not the same, the next question is 'Who in the world am I?' Ah, that's the great puzzle!”
Harmonize all of the world’s religions … and then rewrite the bible. Christ, it’s too simple. Why didn’t I think of that?
But wait a minute; don’t we first have to recruit a few thousand harmonized missionaries? How else are we going to convert those several billion agnostics and atheists into harmoized believers? Surely some are responsible for part of the world’s woes?
I can hardly wait for ‘number two wabbit’ to hop on the to do list.
andrewwood
2 years ago
climate changre
Andrew Weaver's comments, quoted in one of the posts here, typifies the arrogant attitude found in the CRU emails, where his name also occurs. He can't debate the skeptics because that would mean there is a debate, and there isnt because the science is settled. Not being a member of the church of settled science, I find this attitude at odds with what I know of the basic principles of thee scientific method.
When an experiment is done, the raw data is published along with the results, so that experiment can be repeated by others, and thus verified. Real science is skeptical in nature, you say this is how the experiment went- I say , fine - I want to verify it independantly.But CRU has been withholding data, sometimes for years and years, so that no one else can repeat their work, which means its not science, just an opinion. I am proud to wear the label of 'skeptic' if this is what passes for science. And I dont want to see billions of dollars spent and millions of people suffer because of misdirected effort on the basis of these opinions
howbru
2 years ago
simple solution
it's really quite simple... get on your bike and stop eating meat. everything else will settle into place.
andrewwood
2 years ago
" hide the decline'
Heres a link to an American Thinker article explaining in detail what " mikes nature trick " was designed to hide.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/06/american-thinker-understanding-climategates-hidden-decline/
Fii
2 years ago
I second that, PWB
I used to get riled up about climate change, global warming, whatever you want to call it. But it's pointless. I agree wholeheartedly with what you say, and it amazes me, too, that it's a subject so impossible for people to address. As if it makes a lick of difference if we all reuse plastic bags and ride bikes (which I do) and take transit when we can and pontifcate at Hopenhagen and what-have-you. Because truly, it's all hopeless. Until worldwide population control is addressed- and outside of China I don't think the world will ever be up to it- we don't have a chance.
ME2
2 years ago
North of Hope
Re your link "Climatologists under pressure". Yes, thoe poor buggers slaving away in their cubbyholes just for the good of humanity
Quote..."scientists are human beings — and that unrelenting opposition to their work can goad them to the limits of tolerance....."
It is really sad that hundreds of other working climatologistts and tens of thousands of other scientists and academics have allied to oppose their findings. How dare they, eh?
It must be distressing to have to take the time to sour their opinions and so prevent the ears of gov't from hearing what they have to say, let alone to have to engage in the academic back-stabbing such contoversies generate.
And now, all their efforts to teach their followers to ridicule the "Deniers" in every possible way - as was done with the bitter ad hominem attacks on Mopled on these threads - is starting to unravel.
Sooner or later hyperbole has to give way to facts. Happy Carbon Trading, guys.
Fii
2 years ago
Re: World of Plenty's comment
It's not that simple. A woman in India can have 6 kids and their combined impact on the planet is far less than the Canadian with 1.5 (or whatever the rate is). We are the greedy ones. Women in third world countries, for the most part, have very little control over how many children they bear.
realisticman
2 years ago
andrew-wood
Thank you for that link. Perhaps the most unbiased and learned to date.
soleprobe
2 years ago
andrew-wood
I echo realisticman: Thank you for that link.
dorothy
2 years ago
What we want is not the important point
"the world today has some 7 billion people -- none of whom want to die!"
But then we're all going to, aren't we? No one gets out of here alive, last I heard.
I'm not sure I read your letter right. Do you mean that 'climate control' efforts will make our prospects for survival better, all 7 billion of us, or do you mean that the desire for survival is what drives such efforts, whehther they can have such a result or not (most likely not), depending on how much the climate really is or isn't subject to our efforts one way or another...?
I think we must think of the future. We cannot have the extrapolated result of uncontrolled breeding of those 7 billion. We must find a way to hit the brakes, all of us, not just those in the North-western part of the World and places like Japan. We must all follow China and have a one-child policy for at least a couple of generations to set things straight. And we must stop thinking of neigboring countries as not yet conquered territory. Those of us who think that way. We all know who that would be. That is the imperative for any kind of a future.
Yes, it will be wrenching for the culture and the economy and all we know now. This is why I think it can only be brought about by reforming the great religions to the purpose. What Wabbit hole? The enormity of the task did not make the guys who met in Nicaea in 325 go pale around the gills! Are we more lame than they were? They had no problem rolling up their sleeves and thoroughly cook the book to fit the new agenda. Compare to the Dead Sea Scrolls and the Nag Hammadi Library to see to what extent it was re-shaped.
So yes, we must recruit lots of 'harmonized' missionaries. Or maybe just 'one to control them all'. How about talking to Eckhart Tolle or some type like him? Or, how about looking closer at 'the church of all worlds' courtesy of Robert Heinlein? In a time where a measurable proportion of people in several countries put down 'jedi' as their religion, whether in fun or not, all things are possible!
bakoonin_mik
2 years ago
Dorothy - you're not in Kansas anymore!
Dorthy declares:
"I understand scientific principles very well."
You've demonstrated no such understanding in your treatment and casual dismissal of the climate change science.
Dorothy says:
"I am not convinced [of the science on climate change], because I haven't seen anything to convince me."
In other words, you've never read the science. That you haven't seen anything to convince you is really an empty statement.
More Dorothy:
"Your rhetorical tidbits from gurus, who are neither scientists nor environmentalists"
Excuse me? Dr Andrew Weaver not a scientist? Professor Weaver is a climate scientist in the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of Victoria, and a lead author of a chapter on Global Climate Projections in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report "Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis" - Weaver has been named a Guggenheim Fellow, a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, a member of the Order of British Columbia. I'm only laying all this out to illustrate your ignorance, more than illustrate Weaver's authority on the topic.
Dorothy continues:
"Like all other sermons, they don't convince me."
If you want a convincing sermon, go to your nearest place of worship. If you're truly serious about the science of climate change, then go directly to the source (IPCC). You're mantra, "they don't convince me" - I'm afraid does not qualify as a scientific counter-argument.
Science has done its job on climate change. The mostly PR hacks who have moved from big tobacco to big oil to craft clever denials of the science are doing a splendid job of convincing and hoodwinking people like you that human caused global warming is actually open to scientific debate.
soleprobe
2 years ago
Alternative Copenhagen conferences – an overview
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo1MYWUSKHY&feature=player_embedded
dorothy
2 years ago
You're not contradicting me here, you know...
"You're mantra, "they don't convince me" - I'm afraid does not qualify as a scientific counter-argument."
But then I'm not trying to present one. First and foremost because science of the kind we are occupied with here does not build on 'argument', but on data. Secondly, you may remember that this was a reply to how the scientists had done an excellent job of 'educating the public'. Well I am a member of the public. That public which you and others like you are castigating for our ingorance and lack of insight. Your recommendation "If you're truly serious about the science of climate change, then go directly to the source (IPCC)" is not to the point. You are the ones who want to see something change, and claim it to be necessary; therefore, the burden of proof lies with you. You won't see things change by dumping on your audience and the more you do so, the more you are admitting that I am right: you haven't educated anyone. Maybe you should follow the example of those who have supposedly succeded in 'hoodwinking me', for, as the wise would have it: don't dwell on your own failures. Instead, study the successes of your enemy. If YOU are serious, you'll do a better job.
bakoonin_mik
2 years ago
andrewwood
andrewwood, you give skeptics a bad name. You need to learn the difference between skepticism and ignorance.
Dr Weaver and IPCC's science is there, but you need to look at it, rather than have someone look at it for you and interpret it for you. They didn't just pull this stuff out of a hat in Kyoto. This science goes back decades, long before climate change became fashionable. However, the small vocal minority of PR spinsters non-scientists denying the decades of climate change science did truly pull their trick out of a hat in the last few years.
bakoonin_mik
2 years ago
dorothy
"... science of the kind we are occupied with here does not build on 'argument', but on data."
You need to review the data. It has changed pretty significantly since Kyoto, and will continue to change.
"...That public which you and others like you are castigating for our ingorance and lack of insight."
You misunderstand. I am not castigating you or anyone else. I am calling you on your intellectual bluff, your constant implication that there is not enough data and science to be "convinced." Right now it's the available climate science vs. Dorthy's failure to be convinced. You can't play the 'burden of proof' card if you haven't read that proof.
"the burden of proof lies with you."
Wrong, the burden of proof lies not with me, it lies with the science. And that proof is there. You've demonstrated either an outright or willful ignorance with respect that that science. Precisely why experts like Weaver refuse to be led into false debates, which threaten to legitimize the unscientific claim that climate change is a myth, a conspiracy, and such.
Further, I'm not the one citing transcendental New Age mystics as the way to solve all our world's problems. Somewhat ironic coming from someone who is accusing climate science as just another "religion" that fails to convince you.
Denying the science on climate change is negligent, willful or otherwise, and ignorance is no excuse. I'm sorry if I lack the grace and niceties you seem to demand, but these are pressing, urgent times. People who deny climate change need to be called out and held to account. So far, you've provided not an iota of scientific data or evidence to counter the mountains of data and science that fails to convince you. Which, in my opinion, makes you little more than a sophist with a hunch. Not good enough. Neither is posting links to articles about "climate-gate" or other non sequiturs.
andrewwood
2 years ago
bakoonin_mik
do you have anything to contribute to the debate besides invective and ad hominem attacks? Please tell me where I am wrong on the scientific method. Otherwise go back to your sandbox.
dorothy
2 years ago
Dorthy's failure to be convinced, and such
"You need to review the data."
I would probably do so if I was actively looking for information, but that really was not the starting point of my involvement here.
It is quite possible that there is a lot of data sitting somewhere that might be quite good and informative. But the problem here was, that some of the seriously minded environmentalists such as yourself were complaining about how the PR machine had worked against them, and that they could not in the presence of such an adversary win the uphill battle and gain credibility with the ‘gullible’ public. What I then pointed out was that the solution would appear to be to enter into active competition with the PR machine and do some ‘gulling’ of their own, which should be easy as pie if they had solid data to back up their claims.
That is the name of the game in the public scene. You want to be heard, you must learn to speak so people will listen. Simple. Instead, you start socking it to people in a major way:
“People who deny climate change need to be called out and held to account.”
Wow, the heavy artillery! Called out where? Held to account in accordance with what standard? And by whom?
“So far, you've provided not an iota of scientific data or evidence to counter the mountains of data and science that fails to convince you.”
I don’t have to, you still don’t get that. Not as long as “experts like Weaver refuse to be led into false debates, which threaten to legitimize the unscientific claim that climate change is a myth, a conspiracy, and such.”
Please tell me the difference between a “false debate” and a real one? Are you saying that Weaver et al could not make mincemeat out of real or ‘false’ adversaries in their own field, but have to resort to harm-avoidance? Now I’m really worried. Maybe this IS a myth, a conspiracy, and such.
“..Which, in my opinion, makes you little more than a sophist with a hunch. Not good enough. Neither is posting links to articles about "climate-gate" or other non sequiturs.”
Sophist? Maybe at times. Hunch? Hunches are good. I often follow them to my benefit, and that of others in my care. Not good enough? According to whose judgment? Yours? I see. Climate-gate is a non-sequiteur??? I don’t really think so, when you are trying to hit people over the head with the supposedly towering credentials of those who guarded that gate less than successfully.
Enough is enough. You’ve had your say, and it amounts to little more than name-calling and veiled threats, and Hel of a lot of pomposity. You suck in the PR department. And I’m doing you a big favor giving you my sophistry to cut your teeth on. I hope you’re suitably grateful.
G West
2 years ago
Interesting piece, with links, in today's NYTimes
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/09/science/earth/09climate.html?_r=1&hp
record
2 years ago
Climate Change is a side show
Climate change is not the central problem that we are facing, any anthropogenic effect on the climate is merely a result of a much bigger problem. That problem is gross overconsumption of resources by humans, so much so that were the richest societies totally eliminated, about 1 billion people, the rest would still be over consuming on average.
Dealing with climate change or any other symptom of this problem without dealing directly with the problem is a waste of time.
The climate change debate is an energy sink perpetuated to pull efforts away from fixing the consumption issue.
Those proposing solutions to climate change have no credibility unless they are demanding reduced consumption and production of everything, and reversal of economic and population growth.
freebear
2 years ago
For the 'record'.....
I agree with 'record'.
Copenhagen and all of the warm fuzzy composting and recycling your widgets is just a misdirection.
Earth needs fewer villagers who consume less and who find the 'equilibrium' or 'stasis' or steady state (of being!)!
ME2
2 years ago
Whee's the smoking gun?
GWest, your NYT article states the following in its opening remarks:
Quote
"The decade of the 2000s is very likely the warmest decade in the modern record, dating back 150 years, according to a provisional summary of climate conditions near the end of 2009, the organization said."
Very likely accurate, but certainly not news, since the globe has been warming up following "The Little Ice Age" approx 1350-1850, during which most harbours in what is now Canada and Europe froze up in winter and Europeans starved as crops failed. Nor is there any agreement re what "normal" tempeatures were BEFORE the Little Ice Age.
Furthermore, there is no argument against the fact that we are likely in the final stages of the warm-up between the Glaciations which occur cyclicly during every 100,000 years or so.(the Milankovvich Cycle)
As well, there is a considerable body of evidence which suggests that a significant factor contributing to Global Warming / Cooling is the Sunspot Cycle.
Quote
"These records suggest solar activity has returned to Medieval Solar Maximum highs after a prolonged period of reduced solar activity. Climate forcing by increased solar activity may explain some of this century's temperature rise without assuming unacceptably high climate sensitivity."
http://www.springerlink.com/content/q1510878h4857754/
Additionally, there is growing evidence that major ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream and the Pacific Decadal Osillation greatly influence climate. What is not known for sure is what is driving what and how.
Since even Mr Gore now claims that Anthropogenic CO2 is reponsible for only 45% of GW, it seems to me that to waste trillions of dollars on CO2 reduction, CO2 sequetration and the illusory cap and trade scam, all based upon a contrived body of highly speculative evidence, is pure lunacy and is obviously driven only by scare tactics and
political expediency.
record
2 years ago
Debatable
Quote:
Furthermore, there is no argument against the fact that we are likely in the final stages of the warm-up between the Glaciations which occur cyclicly during every 100,000 years or so.(the Milankovvich Cycle)
------------------
Actually, if I remember correctly, Professor William Ruddiman argues that we should be in an advancing Ice Age now, instead of warming, and the reason not can be attributed to anthropogenic causes.
RickW
2 years ago
A question about recycling
http://www.spraguephoto.com/countries/Philippines%20-%20life%20on%20a%20garbage%20dump%20Manila.lasso
If the poor in the Philippines eke out a "living" from the stuff thrown away, and if people there are suddenly seized by the light of environmentalism and no longer discard their "stuff", the poor will still be poor -- except they will no longer have even that meagre living available to them.
Has anyone at all given some thought to this particular repercussion?
RickW
2 years ago
dorothy
Yep! People don't much give a damn about a hypothetical future that doesn't involve them personally. There are very few actually willing to throw themselves on the proverbial grenade to save their fellow travellers.
dorothy
2 years ago
Some distinctions are perhaps in place
"There are very few actually willing to throw themselves on the proverbial grenade to save their fellow travellers."
There is, however, still a lot one may do short of being blown to smithereens, no? I mean, last year at a trade union convention I attended, there was a guest speaker, of of these professional shamers, as in 'do you know just how guilty you are?' Indistinguishable from some clergy types I met as a child, but there was passing around of this cute little cardboard wheel, titled 'things you can do to help save the planet'. There were 16 things listed, and all of them except one has been practiced by my family as a matter of course since I don't know when, at least thirty years, and before that, where I grew up. It was all very housekeeping-oriented stuff, things that I was taught were the classy thing to do, long before 'saving the planet' was on the table. So, I am thinking that it's just a question of not doing something simply because we can and no one is looking, just a question of not being rude as a principle you understand?
Just like everywhere else, it's the attitude.
G West
2 years ago
ME2
This is old ground - stuff we've been over before - which you well know.
As for Al Gore, you keep bringing him up and I never do - why is that?
If the past 10 years are the warmest on record - and that's what the article seems to suggest (along with a whole lot of additional data that seems scientifically sound) I'm more than convinced.
It also happens to mesh with my own 'personal' observations and experience. Furthermore, given the current deteriorating situation (pollution wise) I think any improvement is far from a negative outcome.
Furthermore, when a debate generates the kind of heat this one does – especially from a number of people of a particular philosophical bent with whom (your own good self and certain others obviously excepted) I almost always find myself at odds – I tend to think that there is a personal and financial agenda involved; an agenda with which I simply prefer not to identify myself with.
Therefore, while I disagree profoundly with climate change acolytes and hangers such as Gordon Campbell (and his good friend Al Gore) I do not reject what seems to be the reality of the observable and measurable changes in the world since, for example, the end of world war two….I think the world is warming up, filling up and messing up and I think we owe it to ourselves and the future to do something ‘real’ about it besides arguing the point on the web.
Therefore, as in other cases, my position having been stated, I leave the squabbling to the rest of you.
RickOshea
2 years ago
Moot Point
I do not think climate change is going to take out humanity and a large chunk of every thing else living along with it. If our current system survives long enough to threaten the climate much more than it already has - that would be a minor miracle.
Industrialized societies are teetering on the brink of collapse as we speak. Over population, over consumption, peak oil, a corrupt, fragile 'rube goldberg' globalized economy that is one environmental hiccup away from collapse...
My guess is that the trigger will be widespread famine due to drought caused by climate change.
The prospects are bleak even if you discount the threat nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons present.
Anything that cannot go on, will not go on. Our system is not just 'non sustainable', it is self destructing.
ME2
2 years ago
Record
Interesting hypothesis, record, but from what little I know about Swidden agriculture and broadcast burning on the Prairies, Veldt, Steppes, and Australian Outback, I have trouble reconciling dangerous CO2 buildup with "greenup" and biomass sequestration in the soils beginning 8,000 years ago.
record
2 years ago
ME2
Not quite sure what your point is. Are you referring to Ruddiman's theory that agriculture started the increase in GHGs, if only slightly?
Intention Pure
2 years ago
Great Article
I feel like people think I work for Exxon too, but really I just want to make them talk about EVERYTHING, and not let the oligarchs get away with creating a commodity of carbon. Carbon is one small part of a huge picture that has been painted by the guided hand of the ruling elite.
I refuse to allow them to fill their pockets with carbon credits while mining corporations use pristine BC lakes for tailing ponds (Schedule II Amendment) to increase profits and murder activists who expose the poisoning and contamination of the environment in Mexico. While they clearcut and slash and burn in domestic watersheds and try to ruin BC rivers for "cheap and easy" private hydroelectric power generation that looks to make a profit off of climate chamge/ melting glaciers in the area!
Mithrandir
2 years ago
Against Copenhagen
I am pretty foolish for criticizing M'gonigle when I have to hand in a paper to him today (please read this after the paper is marked, thanks :)
However something did come up in this that seems to be a common occurrence.. What do you propose?
I don't see many solutions here for our entire environmental needs.
Can we use the thing that scares organizations the most a *gasp* real carbon tax?
Never mind the one that passes for one here (although revenue neutral is a good idea), we need big tax on the real culprits (If the BC government didn't pony up to them to pay for the Olympics would be a start).
How about other climactic solutions for the biggest problem which is energy. 75% of world energy comes from fossil fuels.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_resources_and_consumption#cite_note-Renewables2006-2
Since biomass also produces emissions and at a higher rate then other fuels that leaves nuclear, hydro, solar heat,wind geothermal and solar photovoltaic which combined account for 10.04% of world energy production.
When I look at what it takes and what is going to be done, there is low probability of reaching the targets which we will need in time.
Hey Michael, wanna buy an organic farm, preferably high above sea level?
record
2 years ago
The solution
The only viable solution to our problem is to cut back consumption, taxes, shifting of sources, etc. will not fix the problem, though they may help. We need hard caps on the extraction, production and consumption of carbon fuels, and reduced use of everything. Those who do not have enough now to survive must get it from those that have more than they need.
record
2 years ago
More stuff to read
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/global_warming_contrarians/debunking-misinformation-stolen-emails-climategate.html
DavidM
2 years ago
Against Copenhagen
I understand your sentiment. One of the problems with our society is that we look for and believe in quick fixes and usually these quick fixes don't require us to step out of our sociological or physological comfort zone.
So here we are, to solve the many 'Hockey Stick Graphs" we as a global community will have to find it in our communial hearts to want different things from life. Different values, different sources of joy and a differnt and inclusive spirituality.
Impossible you might say but how did we get to this point. how did we get from that careful generation that grew up during the Second World War (my father's generation) to the subsequent consumer oriented generations (mind is the worst, the baby boomers). We got here through the marketer's exploitation of the very human characteristics of greed and self interest.
Why can't we use the same method to create a society who's self interest is survival and the experience of joy through the experience of life and nature.
Over the last few decades societal attitudes to violence against women, drinking and driving, and now smoking were changed. Schools are working really hard to change their student's attitudes to nature and the environment, and are having sugnificant successes.
So the legislated control of Carbon Dioxide output is only a tiny part, a part that may buy us enough time for the real change to happen. The change that needs to happen in our societies, religions, communities and our relationship to nature.
North of Hope
2 years ago
record
Thanks for the link, it is great and much needed.
RickW
2 years ago
dorothy
By all means, dorothy! But it would be encouraging were the things that are out of our immediate control (see G.West's last post) were addressed -- such as the poisons cast so casually into the air, soil and water, and from which we cannot reasonably escape.