NDP, Liberals Still Lead in Key BC Battlegrounds, but Tories Advancing

A new poll of seven key battleground ridings in British Columbia shows the New Democrats and Liberals maintaining earlier leads with the Conservatives on the rebound and the Green Party receding into insignificance.

"The New Democrats are holding on to the lead in four of the seven ridings, but the Conservatives have improved their standing over the past few weeks," said Mario Canseco, vice-president of public affairs at Insights West. The Liberals are leading in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky Country and North Vancouver, he added, but the incumbent Tories are on the rise in those ridings.

Insights West was commissioned to do the surveys by the environmentalist Dogwood Initiative, which is promoting strategic voting to defeat the Conservative government this election. Earlier polls of the same ridings for Dogwood in May and July showed the Conservatives in deep trouble. But the right-wing party's fortunes have improved, according to the new survey.

The latest polls should be of interest to those voters whose main goal is to topple Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Canseco said.

"The environmentally friendly voter may be having a tough time figuring out the best choice to get rid of the Harper government -- is it to vote for a Liberal or a New Democrat?" said Canseco.

"Especially, now that the colour of the government could be any of the big three parties, strategic voting starts to play a role in casting ballots."

Steady Tory gains

The poll found that NDP candidate Carol Baird Ellan, at 28 per cent, is the candidate best positioned in Burnaby North-Seymour to defeat the Conservatives. Tory candidate Mike Little has made strong gains and is now in second at 25 per cent. Liberal Terry Beech is at 16 per cent while Green candidate Lynne Quarmby has fallen to fourth at seven per cent, after the previous Dogwood poll put her in second place.

In North Vancouver, front-running Liberal Jonathan Wilkinson has improved his standing since the earlier Dogwood poll, with the support of 33 per cent of respondents. Conservative incumbent Andrew Saxton trails in second at 25 per cent. NDP support in the riding has dropped sharply since previous polling with candidate Carleen Thomas back to 11 per cent. Claire Martin of the Green Party is at 10 per cent.

In West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky Country, Liberal challenger Pam Goldsmith-Jones appears to be the only candidate who can defeat Conservative incumbent John Weston. Goldsmith-Jones, at 28 per cent, has a narrow lead over Weston, at 25 per cent. Support for NDP candidate Larry Koopman has dropped slightly to 18 per cent with Green candidate Ken Melamed at nine per cent.

Pollster Canseco said the results in the two North Shore ridings show the "rebirth of the Liberals as an urban party" in B.C. The strong polling for the Liberals nationally has probably encouraged many former Liberals to return to the fold, although the party continues to trail in third place in nearby Burnaby North-Seymour.

Canseco added that the Conservatives are steadily improving their position, even though they remain behind in each of the seven seats in the survey. "These ridings are going to be closer than we saw a couple of months ago because the Conservatives have been connecting well. And now with the economy and the government surplus, they will be trying to use that to their advantage."

The Green Party is in fourth place in each of the seven ridings -- and could be enough of a spoiler to help the Conservatives in some close races. Canseco said that the Greens typically lose momentum closer to the election date.

Libs poised to regain Vancouver South

Meanwhile, the Liberals appear poised to regain Vancouver South with candidate Harjit Sajjan holding steady in first place (29 per cent) over Conservative incumbent Wai Young (20 per cent.) NDP candidate Amandeep Nijjar and Green candidate Elain Ng trail in third and fourth.

The Dogwood poll also found that NDP candidate Gord Johns (30 per cent) leads Conservative incumbent John Duncan (25 per cent) in Courtenay-Alberni with Liberal candidate Carrie Powell-Davidson (10 per cent) and Green candidate Glenn Sollitt (nine per cent) far back in third and fourth place.

NDP incumbent Randall Garrison has a strong lead in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke (31 per cent) over Conservative Shari Lukens (16 per cent), Liberal David Merner (15 per cent) and Green candidate Frances Litman (15 per cent.)

In Okanagan-West Kootenay, NDP candidate Dick Cannings remains in the lead at 31 per cent, with second-place Conservative candidate Marshall Neufeld improving to 24 per cent.

Insights West interviewed 2,107 residents of North and South Vancouver Island, Metro Vancouver, the Sea-to-Sky corridor, the south Okanagan and the Kootenays. The margin of error is +/-5.6 percentage points for each riding, 19 times out of 20. Dogwood plans to commission a third survey just prior to the Oct. 19 election.