'Energy Return on Investment' hard to justify says P.G.-based engineering analyst.
Energy intensive oil sands extraction. Photo: Chris Clarke, courtesy of Pembina Institute.

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ENERGY & EQUITY, a Tyee column by Andrew Nikiforuk, this week explains the secret of EROI.
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Former CEO of ICBC concludes project 'is neither needed nor in public interest.'
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Veteran energy analyst David Hughes calculates three reasons the project is bad for Canada.
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Find more Tyee energy reporting here.
A B.C. engineering consulting firm claims it has hard numerical proof that Enbridge's Northern Gateway proposal augurs poorly for the future of modern society.
The Prince George-based C.J. Peter Associates Engineering came to this conclusion after performing an EROI analysis on the $5.5-billion project.
That acronym stands for Energy Return On Investment, a little-known but potentially revolutionary concept with direct implications for Alberta's oil sands.
It refers to the amount of energy that must be expended in order to produce more energy. (Think, for instance, of all the heavy machinery, pipelines and refineries needed to produce gasoline.)
What C.J. Peter Associates found when it analyzed each stage of Northern Gateway's global supply chain, is that getting oil sands bitumen from Alberta to China requires so much energy it might not be worth the effort.
"When animals expend more energy foraging than they obtain from plant food sources, they die," the firm's Norman Jacob said at public hearings on the project in Prince George last month. He added: "Societies that ignore EROI necessarily fail."
Energy in, energy out
To understand the firm's analysis, you must first know that Enbridge's proposal is about much more than a steel pipeline across northern B.C.
Northern Gateway is actually a new global supply chain for heavy Alberta oil that begins somewhere in Australia or the Middle East.
Each of these regions produce large quantities of a natural gas liquid known as condensate, one vital to Alberta's oil sands industry.
If Northern Gateway is approved, tankers loaded with condensate would cross the Pacific Ocean to the small B.C. coastal community of Kitimat.
Here the condensate would be sent east through a 1,172 km pipeline stretched across creeks, rivers and mountain ranges to Bruderheim, Alberta.
It would then be mixed with the thick, viscous bitumen extracted by deep steam injections or surface mining projects near Fort McMurray.
Doing so would allow the diluted bitumen to flow west through a separate pipeline all the way back to Kitimat.
That product would then be loaded onto tankers and shipped to refineries on the far side of the Pacific, facilities built to remove the condensate, and then turn raw Alberta bitumen into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel for fast-expanding Asian markets.
During the heyday of Texas oil development in the 1930s, energy companies could reasonably expect to produce 100 barrels of oil for each barrel's worth of energy they invested. By the 1970s, the EROI for oil had shrunk more than a third.
And now, four decades later, expend one barrel's worth of energy to power Enbridge's Northern Gateway supply chain and how much could you expect to get back? A paltry 2.41 barrels, according to C.J. Peter Associates.
"It begs the question of why are we doing this?" the firm's Jacob told The Tyee in an interview. "Because as EROI gets lower, a greater percentage of the overall economy is subsidizing the production of oil."
Wait for more efficient method: analyst
The C.J. Peter Associates analysis contains an important caveat.
Transporting bitumen and condensate by tanker and pipeline is actually a relatively energy efficient process, the firm concluded, when compared to the massive amounts of energy needed to process and refine oil sands bitumen.
But the entire global supply chain created by Northern Gateway would enable large expansions of Alberta's oil sands industry, deepening our dependence on some of the planet's least sustainable energy, it argues.
"From the perspective of the energy systems of the earth, [the project] sounds absurd," Charles Hall, a prominent energy analyst and ecologist at the State University of New York, said when contacted by The Tyee.
Hall is one of the originators and leading proponents of the EROI theory, seeing it as an important tool for probing and quantifying a society's sustainability.
He argued in a 2010 academic paper that EROI analyses "should always be done and done comprehensively for any major political or financial decision about energy." While he also said that EROI is not the only criteria that should be used, it is a very important component of any good analysis.
What his research has shown is that the effort modern society puts into producing a unit of energy has grown steadily over the past few generations.
We may reach a point within several decades, Hall argues, where "oil and eventually gas will cease to be a significant net source of energy."*
The implications for our fossil-fuel dependant society could be massive, say Hall and other EROI theorists.
Projects such as Northern Gateway, argue C.J. Peter Associates, with its relatively small energy returns, get us closer to that day.
"The tar sands should be left in ground until we can find a more elegant and energy efficient way of dealing with them," the firm's Chris Peter told The Tyee, adding, "if that ever occurs."
[Tags: Energy.]
*Story updated Feb. 9 at 11:16 a.m. ![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png)
Geoff Dembicki reports on energy and climate issues for The Tyee.
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Fiat lux
1 year ago
Now try to explain common
Now try to explain common sense to so called "economists" and "conservatives".
The more we waste, the more disasters, the higher the fraudulent monetary figures of the "growth" and GDP. And that's all they can care about with their warped little brains.
Like all the mice can think about is how to bite into the cheese on the trap.
Ed Deak.
wiley
1 year ago
thundering past tipping points
Negative EROI is why much of what remains in difficult and unconventional fossil reserves will stay right where they are. But watch as governments continue to throw subsidy after subsidy at losing propositions until even they cant hide the truth.
Years ago we passed the tipping point in the EROI of salmon fishing, where the amount of diesel energy used to chase after food surpassed the calories obtained. Only the rising price of fish and surplus of boats keeps it going, with another increased subsidy from our wallets at the fishmonger's. Fish farmers make a profit by obtaining their "hidden" EROI subsidy in ridiculously cheap rent and free "bycatch" on prize oceanfront in the middle of wild salmon migration routes, and the steady exhaustion of small fish in the southern hemisphere.
But with "fossil fishery" the energy you have to spend is the same type you're fishing for, so EROI becomes EROEI.
Hidden subsidies in the form of clear BC fresh water turned into fracking sludge to produce natural gas to ship to Fort McMurky to fire steam boilers to SAG the tarsands are what keep the diminishing returns game going right now, because here in BC clean water is grossly undervalued.
Tragedy of the Commons is written large on the western Canadian landscape. Even our forests have passed the tipping point in many regions. We cannot blame this on "too many people" but on greed, this mass cultural consumer hypnosis called "I wanna be a millionaire too."
NicS
1 year ago
EROI truth will set us free.
Excellent article. Bringing EROI analysis into the mainstream is crucial for us doing the right thing with the Tar Sands. For decades, its been the million dollar question. Are the Tar Sands "economically" viable? They sure as hell have shown that they are not, currently, environmentally viable! Shipping the tar to Asia in a medium of condensate is not going to make the Tar Sands anymore environmentally or economically viable either.
More solid articles like this one will help disperse the myths that perpetuate the Tar Sands viability.
It would be interesting to know how refining the Tar Sands in Alberta, instead of shipping them elsewhere, would affect their EROI?
wiley
1 year ago
NEROI hits Sinopec
And they haven't even tapped our very expensive bitumen yet:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/03/china-oil-sinopec-idUSL4E8D32VP20120203
Fiat lux
1 year ago
The actions of all forms of
The actions of all forms of life , including and especially of humans, are forms of energy control.
All human actions and theories, including agriculture, manufacturing, religions, ideologies, politics, advertising, education, etc, etc. endlessly, are forms of energy control.
The main demand for control has always been by human predator classes, like aristocracies, priesthoods, military, and now the multinational corporate mafia, with their new form of colonization, called "globalization", has always been for energy control over resources and humans, under their thumbs.
The worst examples of energy control are wars, which now include the neoclassical economic theory using the perceived power of non existing, imaginary money for weapons.
All wars have been and are fought over certain forms of energy control to steal energy from others, but when we look at what has been gained and lost in wars, it shows that the energy used and wasted to fight them, usually far exceeds what is gained by the winners.
E.g. There have been studies after WW2, with great details, that the energy and resources wasted in fighting, would have given a very high standard of life to everybody on Earth.
Basically the same applies here with the wars against the environment, natural resources and humanity, for the purpose to increase the energy control over everything and everybody by a ruling sector, using ideology and fraudulent, monetary economic theories to justify their waste and crimes.
Ed Deak.
Feverish
1 year ago
How true
Everything is energy-based. These comments, our feelings, they are an exchange of energy and EVERYTHING is connected in this manner
As Ed keeps reminding us; we are all ruled by physical laws and those laws remain constant. We cannot "win" we can only exist within the natural system or we perish. The sooner we give up our desire to dominate, the sooner we will find peace. How crazy is it that we as humans must "fight" for it?
David
Victoria VI
jnewcomb
1 year ago
Not all energy the same
Making peteroleum is worth higher EROIs because the economic value of petroleum is worth more than the natural gas. Until a whole lot more drivers burn natgas in their cars, gasoline-from-petroleum is just plain worth more and this EROI stuff is bunkum.
Sounds like a debate 40 years ago when a researcher said EROI of lobster fishing made it uneconomical and we should all just eat sardines. Well, the market figured that higher lobster prices were ok and fishing for lobster still goes on.
firefox007
1 year ago
Ed Deak Number Two.
Ed: "There have been studies after WW2, with great details, that the energy and resources wasted in fighting, would have given a very high standard of life to everybody on Earth."
Right, Ed, don't fight Hitler when he's killing millions & trying to take over the world.
The silly calculus that every penny saved by Gov'ts. leaving Hitler or Stalin alone, would automatically go to every nation in the world, to give them a lovely lifestyle is quite laughable.
[OFFENSIVE COMMENT DIRECTED AT ANOTHER COMMENTER REMOVED. -MODERATOR.]
metacomet
1 year ago
Rabbit Starvation
Here is a homily on EROI:
A man becomes lost in the wilderness. He has a rifle and plenty of ammo. Fortunately, he thinks, there is a virtually endless supply of rabbit to hunt, all the rabbit he could ever eat and more. Nevertheless, he begins to gradually lose weight, so he eats more and more rabbit at a meal. But the faster he eats rabbit, the quicker he wastes away. This is called "rabbit starvation," because very lean rabbit meat takes more energy to digest than it supplies to its predator; a diet of only rabbit leads to starvation.
It would still be profitable to sell such a man more ammo, though.
Fiat lux
1 year ago
Fire....Just come to our
Fire....Just come to our place with a weapon in you hand and violence on your mind and see what happens.
Defence against assault and invasion is not pacifism and I'm the last one to suggest submitting to it.
I was talking about the cost of war and not the justification of either side.
By the way, are you a "conservative" voter?
Sure sound like one, twisting the words and facts around .
Ed Deak.
Cynic
1 year ago
Good post Wiley, but I don't
Good post Wiley, but I don't agree with this statement: We cannot blame this on "too many people" but on greed, this mass cultural consumer hypnosis called "I wanna be a millionaire too."
Well maybe you're somewhat right, but the point I want to make is that when it comes to blame, let's lay it on those who really deserve it, our elite masters. It's important to realise that we good people didn't ask for nor invent the regime under which we live. It's been imposed upon us and we've been indoctrinated to the point where we quite easily say "it's our fault". But it's not. The main reason that things are as egregious as they are is because a small group of elite psychopaths have engineered it. Things could be completely different and would be if the elite weren't so evil. We need to call them out.
Fiat lux
1 year ago
Cynic....You're completely
Cynic....You're completely right about the elite psychopaths, not only of the present lot, but all the way back in history.
What we have to remember is that all of history's psychopaths and the damage they caused, have been licenced by faith, such as religions, ideologies and now economic theories, taught in our universities.
Every society and faith condemns theft, enslavement and murder, yet at the same time
licence the psychos to commit the worst kind on their way to "wealth creation".
In our present case it isn't Harper, but what he has learned in schools and university, and had to write his term and exam papers on, without the mental capacity to understand what it was all about.
Ed Deak.
edoherty
1 year ago
So, lets build more roads and airports?
Yep. Then take that tar sands derived diesel and burn it building wider roads and bigger airports. Then burn more and more of it so we can sit in traffic jams each in our own car, or so we can fly somewhere with less traffic.
After all, where would the 1% be if we decided to ride bicycles, trolley buses and electric trains instead of buying SUVs? What if we joined car co-ops with electric cars? Maybe a Transportation Transformation is needed as part of the energy transformation, but is it possible? - http://ecoplanning.ca/events
aDriftwood
1 year ago
Dostoevyesky had it right
When he said that religion is just another way to control the masses. Also private banking and private corporations controlling governments.
Which brings us nicely to the song, Good Morning Little Schoolgirl
How do you do?
Good morning little schoolgirl
And how are you?
Tell your mama and your papa,
that I'm a little schoolboy too
Get it?
Granville
1 year ago
Obvious solution to the bitumen storage issue
Pump it to Calgary and fill Glenmore Reservoir with bitumen until it can be shipped to the USA. There are dozens of natural lakes and even streams in Southern Alberta that could be used to store bitumen; the Bow River for one. The great thing about this idea is that all the bitumen would end up in Medicine Hat anyway. Perfect!
Just joking, silly. I wouldn't want anyone to do to Southern Alberta what has already been done to the people of Fort McKay and Fort Chipeweyan. Although the idea of force-feeding bitumen to Stephen Harper and Peter Kent would be entirely appropriate.
igbymac
1 year ago
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right
Add in the traumatic environmental destruction and only a bought and paid for shill of the Global elite could even contemplate, let alone bombastically endorse, such an abject failure.
Speaking of failure, PM Harper comes immediately to mind.
And this is exactly what should be happening:
igbymac
1 year ago
firefox007
don't fight Hitler when he's killing millions & trying to take over the world.
...and now for the rest of the story. Hitler was funded by the same financiers to the Allied forces with assurances to the financiers, as collateral, that they will repay the debt of the loser upon the end of the war. The same financiers who have control of the world's central banks (BIS, IMF, World Bank) which direct the national and regional central banks like the ECB, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. The same financiers who have control of the transnational corporations which have oligopolies in energy, the media, health, food, and natural resources.
So I wonder, do you honestly think Hitler just decided he was going to 'take over the world' on his own? This shit doesn't happen without a known money supply to run these horrific operations that ruin nations and destroy millions of lives annually. The problem is a 'little' bigger than Adolph Hitler. /sarcasm
igbymac
1 year ago
Ed Deak
No, Ed Deak, it is Harper.
There are tens of thousands of folks who have gone through the same schooling program as Stephen Harper, and the majority of them, though likely just as delusional about economics, are not the psychotic type of persons who think they are justified sinners.
It take a special kind of sicko to behave with complete disdain and contempt for others, then smile at them and pretend he sincerely gives a shit. This sort of social miscreant's disease runs far deeper than a university education.
George Smith
1 year ago
When control is in the hands of psychopaths
We have no lack of scientific evidence the tar sands are both an ecological and environmental disaster. The evidence is beyond reproach. The problem is our governance has been usurped by corporate psychopaths who have no concern for anything but short term profit. All long term pain is "externalized". For these people, there is no downside. Unfortunately for us, we have handed these psychopaths the reins to power. We are now faced with the challenge of wresting the reins back as quickly as possible. This has to be our collective focus and we have no time to lose.
vicfar
1 year ago
"economy" as Enbridge sees it
As heard yesterday on CBC, Robyn Allan did some serious digging through Enbridge's own documents. The resulting vision is very eye-opening, to say the least.
http://www.robynallan.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Economic-Assessment-of-Northern-Gateway-January-31-2012.pdf
KWD
1 year ago
igbymac
“No, Ed Deak, it is Harper.
There are tens of thousands of folks who have gone through the same schooling program as Stephen Harper, and the majority of them, though likely just as delusional about economics, are not the psychotic type of persons who think they are justified sinners.”
A particularly odd bit of logic coming from someone that claims to understand that most of our thinking and behaviour is a product of something deeper.
We become what we’ve been conditioned to believe is true. We are convinced our beliefs are true when we recognize that those around us accept the same life stories and similar beliefs.
If we ever hope to understand how folks like Harper or Hitler gain power and influence we must focus on the process through which this conditioning took place. Unfortunately it’s a task few, certainly those with power and influence, are willing to undertake.
This is the reason why many of those that share an environmental ethic will unflinchingly insist that they are doing everything that one can reasonably expected to do about the environment, all the while pursuing a “justified sinner” lifestyle that’s difficult to distinguish, on many levels, from other folks that “pretend to give a shit”, like Harper.
Yes, you and Ed are partly correct, but schools, universities and religious beliefs are little more than symptoms of a much greater problem that, if we really look closely, underlies the behaviour of the “tens of thousands of folks who have gone through the same schooling”.
dave49
1 year ago
Labour shortages and jet fuel
The plans to triple tars sands output will reported face a 250,000 worker shortage. The perverse result is that we may fly in foreign workers to do this. Keep in mind this flying in and out will happen on a three week rotation. So, we will use Alberta jet fuel to help mine more tar sands to make more synthetic crude and jet fuel to keep the whole expansion process going. A bit circular!
Royal Canadian Air Farce skit:
Man to drunk sitting on the ground drinking:
Why do you drink?
Drunk: To forget
Man: What are you trying to forget?
Drink: That I drink...
Fiat lux
1 year ago
The world has always been
The world has always been controlled by brainwash to make people sacrifice their lives and send their kids under the knives of priesthoods, hoping to gain salvation
I was recruited by the British in 1948, at the beginning of the Cold War and spent several years at Cambridge, as a farmworker, under various names, including my present one, studying how brainwash, at that time the communist propaganda machine, works and how to fight it ?
Capitalist propaganda is basically the same, albeit more refined and, without a secret police to enforce it, less brutal. Plus the fact that we still have a degree of the freedom of speech.
It always has been, is, and will be the simple fact that wealth can not be created, only taken, which has been the cause of all disasters, wars, crimes and destruction in history.
The first thing to remember is that so called "economists" are simply a priesthood, dealing with and selling "faith".
Harper is an obvious mental case, written all over him and has been scaring me ever since I first saw his photo as one of Manning's right hand lieutenants some 20, or more, years ago.
But it was his university studies that gave him, and others, the licence to go wild.
All actions and crimes in history, and the present, have always been "licenced" by faith and always for "wealth control and taking" by predator ruling classes.
Ed Deak.
dave49
1 year ago
Lyrics to King Crimson's "Epitaph"
The wall on which the prophets wrote
Is cracking at the seams.
Upon the instruments of death
The sunlight brightly gleams.
When every man is torn apart
With nightmares and with dreams,
Will no one lay the laurel wreath
When silence drowns the screams.
Between the iron gates of fate,
The seeds of time were sown,
And watered by the deeds of those
Who know and who are known;
Knowledge is a deadly friend
If no one sets the rules.
The fate of all mankind I see
Is in the hands of fools.
Confusion will be my epitaph.
As I crawl a cracked and broken path
If we make it we can all sit back
and laugh.
But I fear tomorrow I'll be crying,
Yes I fear tomorrow I'll be crying.
Credits: ROBERT FRIPP, PETER SINFIELD, IAN MCDONALD, GREG LAKE, MICHAEL GILES
From the album "In the Court of th eCrimson King" released October 1969.
KWD
1 year ago
Knowledge is a deadly friend
There’s a Grand Canyon of knowledge and understanding that must be crossed if we are going to make a connection between “brainwashing”, universities and wealth as a cause of war, crimes and destruction.
Understanding that propaganda works and exposing propaganda is not the same as knowing the subtleties and conditions that underlie how and why the human mind allows it to work.
Granville
1 year ago
The tar sands are about 15% oil and 85% sand
Any processing to separate them is extremely inefficient. If it were done efficiently, by some magic process, the remaining sand would be contamination-free. There is no magic process, just a great big mess.
Alberta should consider exporting the sand with the tar, and let the customer sort them out. The resultant lakes could be great fishing.
igbymac
1 year ago
KWD
There is nothing 'odd' about the logic; I believe you are simply picking up the narrative in an incomplete way. I agree 'we are what we learn' (with certain biological and reptilian-brain reservations) but the question remains, Why do we learn what we learn?
Again, I agree that we need to look at the process. And that is what I was aiming at in the post immediately above the one you cite. Reference that post and see if it clarifies the issue. [Somehow I omitted control of the educational system in my list, clearly a huge oversight.]
In essence, we are following a societal lifestyle which is determined, taught to us, and controlled in its important aspects by the very elite. And its dead simple to understand why those on top want to keep it that way. With your being familiar with my discourse on matters in general, KWD, you are likely aware of how I routinely mention this as the imperialism of culture.
If there is something even deeper than this cultural narrative perpetuated by accepted authority, I am not aware of it. So, in all seriousness, please explain.
That said, we can return to the nature-nurture argument about why the Harpers of the world behave as they do. I think my point with Ed Deak was not to suggest that academic learning was unimportant in shaping his misguided views -- as I offered up the other delusional souls as evidence of that (no doubt we can include myself in that backwater pool) -- but that there is something more.
I've no evidence here, but it seems to me that there are a relatively small number of people who, given the same information as Harper, Hitler or even Gandhi or Jesus, would behave in the same fashion. It's pretty obvious that the entrenched system just thrives easier with the destructive oddities at the helm at times than with the constructive ones.
igbymac
1 year ago
KWD
I should add, quickly, I am talking along the avenue of thought regarding the information provided to us all, not the incredible workings of the brain/ mind (another topic altogether).
Knotsure
1 year ago
Atomic Energy Investment
A few people are trying to sell all of the people of Alberta (they just pay for it) a new Electrical Transmission grid, North to South, as "alternative" sources to power the tar sands are being explored.
Americans are paying record high fuel prices, $0.70 more than 1 year ago.
$3.43 a US gallon = $0.906 a litre.
RickW
1 year ago
"Fortunately"....
....the energy required to process the tar sands is a completely different set of books than the energy gained by the end product - and the two sets of books will never meet.