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A Good Day for George
The Liberal leadership race is too close to call, but two changes give Abbott a better shot.
George Abbott's chances to replace Gordon Campbell just got better.
Two weeks before BC Liberal party members choose a new leader who will become premier of the province, they made two major changes to how that vote will be held.
The frontrunners in the campaign have all welcomed the amendments in their public statements, but if there was a consensus in the room at the Vancouver Conference Centre on Feb. 12, it was that the changes would hurt Christy Clark's chances and give George Abbott a boost.
The first change debated was one several speakers described as "late." It will force voters to pick at least a first and a second choice on their preferential ballot when they rank their favourites among the six candidates. The second weights votes in a way that gives an equal say to every constituency in the province, regardless of how many party members live there.
Forcing members to mark a second preference takes away their ability to "plump" by marking just a top choice. It was proposed by Mike de Jong's campaign, and Abbott and Moira Stilwell also spoke in favour of it ahead of the vote.
The amendment would give the eventual winner legitimacy in the eyes of the press and the public, said de Jong. Without it, he said, it would be possible to win with the support of fewer than 50 per cent of the membership. "It tries to ensure a genuine majority is responsible for electing the leader," he said.
He also acknowledged that the change could be seen as having "a self-serving component."
Falcon supporters opposed change
The vote is unlikely to be decided by the first votes, said Abbott. As candidates are dropped, the second and third votes will become important and the eventual winner needs to be supported by the majority of the party, he said.
"I think it's very important that we honour the spirit of the preferential ballot," said Stilwell. Ending up with a leader only supported by a minority of the party would be a detriment to "not just the candidate but to the party in the future."
While an official with Kevin Falcon's campaign said Falcon voted for the amendment, some of his prominent supporters spoke against it.
"No one should be forced to cast a vote for a contestant they do not support," said Children and Family Development Minister Mary Polak, who has endorsed Falcon.
Senator Richard Neufeld from Peace River North, a former MLA who has also endorsed Falcon, said he was opposed. "I should have the right to say I only want to vote for one person," he said. "Why we have to have number two, I'm not sure."
A third Falcon supporter, Chilliwack MLA John Les, lined up at the microphone for people who opposed the change, but did not get a chance to speak before the debate closed.
Another cabinet minister who supports Falcon, however, said that had the debate continued, he would have spoken in favour of the change.
An official with the Clark campaign said Clark voted for the change.
It required a 50 per cent plus one majority and passed with 751 votes for and 606 against.
Second choices may be key
There were various theories circulating the conference centre about who the change would help and who it might hurt.
The way the voting will work, ignoring for the time being how they will be weighted, is that once all the first choice votes are counted, the person in last place will be dropped from the contest. Then, the second preferences of the people who voted for that person are distributed to the remaining candidates.
The process continues until one of the candidates has the support of at least 50 per cent of the voters.
The conventional wisdom is that Clark will be the first choice of the most voters, but without enough support to win in the first round, followed by Falcon, Abbott, de Jong, Stilwell and Ed Mayne, more or less in that order.
Several think that as Stilwell and Mayne are dropped, the second preferences of their supporters are more likely to go to Abbott and de Jong, rather than more polarizing figures like Falcon and Clark. With many second and third preference votes in the mix, especially as the field is reduced from four to three, it becomes possible for someone who is in third place -- likely Abbott, but possibly de Jong -- to vault into second or even first on that round or in the final one.
Abbott has been targetting Clark in recent weeks, making him perhaps less likely to pick up second preferences from her supporters, but as long as she isn't eliminated before the final round of counting, that won't matter.
It is also worth noting that several observers mentioned that Abbott's campaign appears to have signed up fewer new members than other campaigns did, making being people's second preference that much more important for him.
Weighted votes
The other big change Liberals made was one that appears to benefit Abbott, who comes from Sicamous and lays claim to being the best candidate to reach out to rural B.C., though it should be noted Falcon has made the north a focus of his campaign and has key endorsements from Prince George cabinet ministers Pat Bell and Shirley Bond.
The 1,342 delegates who voted at the Feb. 12 extraordinary convention -- representing the some 90,000 members the party says it now has -- approved a change recommended by the party's executive that gives each of the province's constituencies an equally weighted vote.
Under the system, each constituency will have 100 points, which will be allocated to the candidates in a way that matches the proportion of the votes they got in that region.
Clark, Falcon, Abbott, de Jong and Stilwell all spoke in favour.
"This is a highly important vote for the future of this party and the future of this province," said Abbott.
"This is essential for the unity of the BC Liberal party and the future of British Columbia," said Stilwell.
Whoever wins will be better placed if they can say they have support from throughout the province, said Falcon. "It will strengthen us as a party and contrast us to the NDP."
Another Liberal official observed in a conversation later that it gives the party incentive to build in the areas where it is less strong, which is a very smart decision for the longterm health of the party.
Some more equal than others
Speakers opposed to the motion said all votes should count equally. "Democracy means one vote for one person," said a member from Coquitlam-Maillardville. Another said the system will give more value to some voters than others and paraphrased George Orwell's Animal Farm, saying that while everyone is equal, some will be more equal than others.
Another said, "We're being gerrymandered here." Gerrymandering usually refers to the adjustment of voting area boundaries to advance one party's interests unfairly, but can also mean manipulating the system for one's advantage.
The motion, which is available here (scroll down), needed two-thirds support to pass. The vote was 1,319 in favour with 23 opposed.
Abbott said in an interview that the changes are good for the province, but also allowed they will help him strategically.
"This is certainly not in any way destructive of my chances," he said. "We've been basing our campaign on the premise that this would pass. We had always hoped that it would."
The vote weighting will make more of a difference than forcing people to pick a second preference will, he said.
The second part of the convention was a "debate" that included no opportunities for the contestants to rebut the statements others made. Meanwhile, the person they are vying to replace, Premier Gordon Campbell, was outside the convention centre speaking to a rally celebrating the one-year anniversary of the 2010 Olympic Winter Games. ![]()




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Christy Fan
1 year ago
I disagree respectfully...
UNSUBSTANTIATED ALLEGATIONS REMOVED. -MODERATOR.
Hermans Hermit
1 year ago
If George Wins This Thing
Rumour has it that George's campaign team has already selected his leadership win campaign theme song ....
Hey There Georgy Girl......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bf8O1whEH5s
zalm
1 year ago
Simply no clue
1. We've already got one. Had him for ten years. Didn't seem to hurt your desire for more of the same any. Indicates the state of morality among those who think free enterprise belongs only to Ayn Rand's disciples.
2. No program, no coherent economic plan, no friends, no answers to BC Rail.
No premiership. Simple as that, no matter how creepy your promotion of her feral looks.
Cyrille
1 year ago
Hypocricy in voting system
Clearly the second choice ballot "give the eventual winner legitimacy in the eyes of the press and the public" and insures "a genuine majority is responsible for electing the leader" otherwise "it would be possible to win with the support of fewer than 50 per cent of the membership".
How reasonable these statements sound. Yet the Liberal party strongly opposed STV (Single Transferable Vote), which is similar to the ranked ballot being debated, for provincial elections. The Liberal party strongly supports an electoral system where a party with less than 50% of the votes can obtain a majority government. This is simply because Liberals have the most to lose.
The weak opposition from pro Falcon supporters, who also have the most to lose, are repeating the same lines the STV opponents used a few years ago.
The proposed ballot system will elect a leader of the Liberal Party through consensus rather than a high school popularity contest. Now if only we could do the same at the Provincial level.
Cyrille
1 year ago
Hypocrisy!
Ouch.
metacomet
1 year ago
STV with a twist
The STV of our famed referendum allowed plumping. I'm guessing that the term includes any ballot that does not rank all the candidates. I'm also not sure if it means that a ballot could be cast with, say, the first,
third and sixth ranking, leaving the second, fifth and fourth rankings blank. Or if the rankings are automatically ranked ordinately (or is that cardinally?) so that, in the above example, the third ranking becomes the "second" choice and the sixth the "third."
Could anyone explain what "second choices" must be cast means. Does it mean that any two out of six (in the Liberals case) rankings could be chosen, or only number one and number two. Would ballots marked otherwise be spoiled? Is one allowed to choose number one and number six, for example?
Now, there are bound to be some BC Liberal members who are as dumb (or as contrarian) as I am. I'd be hoping that whatever the rules are, the explanation given by both the party executive and the candidate I signed on to support are the same. Otherwise there might be some confusion. Would any of the candidates sow any confusion for their own advantage? Naw, BC Liberals would never play sneaky games like that, would they?
Who would candidates advise their supporters to pick as second choice, whatever ranking that might mean? Would they wait till the last minute? Would they leave it up to the individual member to decide? What if I objected to the second-choice recommendation of the candidate I signed on to support? Maybe I'd change my first choice. Hell, just being forced to make a second choice, whatever that means, might be enough to make me reconsider my first choice. Maybe just pick it out of a hat.
Man O man! am I ever glad we voted down STV for provincial elections. Gonna love watching the Liberals go through it, though.
Frank
1 year ago
Only 1342 Liberals left?
So the Liberals are down to 1,342 actual members that care enough to vote?
What happened to all of those new members? Looks like the party has been reduced to being nothing more than friends and families of the candidates and Campbell.
Frank
1 year ago
metacomet
I doubt you can pick a 6th choice without picking a 2nd through 5th.
And what would be the point? Your first choice counts in each round until that person is eliminated. So let's say the first ballot votes are counted and your 1st choice comes in last and is dropped. That means whoever you had written down as your 2nd choice would now get your vote.
If you were allowed to not have a 2nd through 5th choice then your ballot would simply no longer be counted at all until the 6th round and that's only assuming your 6th choice is still in the process and the process is till going.
Cyrille
1 year ago
STV continued
As metacomet shows, many people didn't understand how STV works and voted against it due to the rhetoric.
Yes with STV you can choose just one person on a ballot - plumping - but you are losing your right to representation. If your 1st choice does not have enough votes that person is eliminated as is your voice. The same thing currently occurs if you vote for the green party - your vote becomes worthless because it is not transferable to NDP or Lib which has more votes. (I don't necessarily support any of these parties - they are just examples so bear with me)
With STV you could vote for who you truly agreed with while keeping a safety by voting NDP or Lib to counter the other. (Or vote 1st for NDP, then green... or vice versa with the Libs)
So getting back to ranking people on your ballot 1, 3, 5 has the exact same effect as writing 1, 2, 3 (unless the software is defective by design).
By forcing a second choice on ballots a everyone should be more content with the outcome. Perhaps most people want Falcon as their first choice but more people would rather have someone else - that's what STV style ballots can achieve.
Frank
1 year ago
A candidate with minority support is a good thing?
I can't think of any party anywhere that uses first-past-the-post to select their leader.
With 7 candidates you could have a party leader selected by as little as roughly 15% of the party.
That's why parties have traditionally (in the days of delegated conventions) allowed delegates to switch their support from one candidate to another as candidates were defeated. It means the final choice has over 50% support even though they didn't when the convention started.
JoshC
1 year ago
@Cyrille re: STV
Both the NDP and the Liberals took no official positions on STV. I think Harry Lali was the only MLA to take a position one way or another; he opposed STV.
Christy Fan
1 year ago
Only 1342 Liberals left? NO
Those are delegates the party membership sent forward. Period, full stop.
pwlg
1 year ago
what a "democracy"
Out of 3.2 million eligible voters in the province of BC (election BC figures) 1.5 million cast a vote in the last provincial election.
Of the number of eligible voters in this province, less than 4% belong to a political party but this is inflated by leadership contests which see their rosters grow by eager candidates and their supporters solicitng "drive-by" members.
The 1342 delegates who took a few hours out of their day to cast ballots at the recent BC Liberal gathering indicates that the percentage of eligible voters in the province who bother to participate in party politics and engage in their party's policy process, 4%, may be a very very very generous figure.
And this is how we allow such a few individuals in this province to select the next leader of the province. A leader who will wield more power than former president of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak.
I just hope citizens of Tunisia and Egypt don't use BC as an example for their vision of democracy.
freebear
1 year ago
Don't trust any politician named George..
period!
Okanagan Orchardist
1 year ago
I thought I had it all thunk out...
I figured my solution was a sure thing before I read all of the comments. Here is what I emailed to an NDP friend:
" New rules for selecting a Liberal candidate to run for party leader in the next election means that you have to pick two--your first choice and your second choice---or, your vote won't count. This applies to all Liberal party members who will be able to make the selection at the end of this month. In other words, I want to select a first and second choice who have no chance against a good NDP leader. It gets kind of complicated. Suppose all the people who support Abbott put him first on the ballot and Clark as their second choice. Then those that support Clark would put her as their first choice, and possibly Abbott as their second choice. Then those people that support Falcon would put him as their first choice and possibly Clark as their second choice. All things being equal, Clark would be elected as party leader. Sort of a dark horse winner by winning one first and two seconds."
Am I right??
David Huntley
1 year ago
Preferential ballots are best
So the Liberal Party has recognized the benefits of a preferential ballot, one in which candidates are ranked 1st, 2nd 3rd etc.
Will the Liberal government please let us use the same kind of ballot to elect our mayors. At the last election of mayors in 2008 there were at least two mayors elected with about 30% of the vote. It is quite possible that there were other candidates who the voters preferred to the ones elected. A preferential ballot would have solved this problem.
Preferential ballots are not currently allowed under the Local Government Act (some people dispute this).
rlbolin
1 year ago
Liberal Party Representation Rules
Is the BC Liberal Party slouching toward proportional representation?
SCR
1 year ago
Abbott less polarizing ?
"Several think ... the second preferences ... are more likely to go to Abbott and de Jong, rather than more polarizing figures like Falcon and Clark."
Not long ago, as Health Minister, George polarized the province by breaching the HEU contract, an un-business-like tack.
http://thetyee.ca/News/2007/06/08/Bill29Dies/
"Government understood Bill 29 to be legal and constitutional under the jurisprudence prevailing at the time the bill was passed. ..."
He didn't explain this statement, the legal advice before or the supreme court ruling.
He commented that he'd do it again.
His polariized misunderstanding cost us all $80 million.
Skywalker
1 year ago
The reason for this strange voting system.
It would appear that the divisions in the liberals are huge. They are worried that if the folks cast ballot with a single name on it, and that person loses, people won't bother to vote again. The second choices are so repugnant to them. Think of how that will look when the final votes are cast and counted. The winner wins by a minority of the members present because the majority didn't like the choices left. It is all a bit hilarious.
Frank
1 year ago
Skywalker
Not only hilarious but bodes well for the NDP. I just can't understand why anyone wouldn't want a second vote unless they really really hated all the other candidates.
Unbelievable.
SCR
1 year ago
Thrift Lesson
100 point weighting echoes BS TV just like vote ranking mimics STV. BC CAN VOTE.
Are they mocking high school parliaments ?
Can ridings add leadership traits to their shares ?
Will executives over-ride members ? A tiny minority just did that. 1342 (~1.5%) pre-empted 90,000 (uncorroborated).
Will the 30 member riding get 100 points just as the 300 member base ?
Will the 30 members who get to the vote on time decide for the 270 who don't ?
The 751 to 606 (1357 Total, not 1342) vote reveals a close contest likely to flare again.
Are they going to put these decisions to the test of the majority ?
Why do these "bright" ideas raise more questions ?
metacomet
1 year ago
Just a itty-bitty puppy yet
Thank you all, especially Frank and Cyrille for helping me understand STV a little bit more. I have to admit I didn't become an expert in it while it was a possibility because I'm generally against pro-rep for other reasons and voted against it. For me it's not so much how good people feel about getting more "democratic" voting, it's about the nature of representation and compromise. I suspect a lot of people didn't vote against the method of pro-rep, but against pro-rep itself.
I'd compromise if it was some kind mixed-member plurality that was recommended. I though the process of selecting STV above other pro-rep systems was heavily biased toward STV.
A party leader, of course, represents everyone in the party.
Thanks again.
JonBC
1 year ago
Abbott attending BC Green Liberal caucus town hall
Heard Abbott is coming to talk to the BC Green Lib caucus on Saturday. Personally I'm much more interested in what his views are on global warming, peak oil, forest, soil, fisheries, fresh water, etc. than whether he's mean or nice to Christy Clark. De Jong is coming too. Has anyone heard from any of the candidates so far on the subject of the environment?
boondoggle
1 year ago
Abbott victory would be a win for the opposition
I and my family members have had personal dealings with our MLA George Abbott and we have been collectively astounded at his lack of knowledge on the subjects discussed which were all high priority in our riding. Furthermore, his overt attempts to avoid meetings or discussion altogether are even more shocking especially considering they were prearranged. This incompetent puppet is the best premiere the opposition could hope for, believe me. Go George Go!
freebear
1 year ago
Has anyone heard ......
Has anyone heard from any of the candidates so far on the subject of the environment?
Yeah, they acknowledge they live in the environment!