Tory Resources Minister Battles Three Shades of Green
Trio of opponents may split vote against Conservative Gary Lunn.
Saanich-Gulf Islands MP Gary Lunn.
During the election campaign, Conservative cabinet minister Gary Lunn will face targeted protests from environmental groups and heavy criticism from three opponents who are strong advocates for the environment in a riding where that matters, but some fear vote splitting may well let him win his seat again.
There's little question people who care about the environment would dearly like to see the Natural Resources minister lose his Saanich-Gulf Islands riding. Victoria's Dogwood Initiative is planning a Sept. 20 rally outside Lunn's office to highlight his support of oil tanker traffic, and all three of his main opponents will be doing their best to show the minister's record is a very dark brown.
Lunn, by the way, did not return calls. An assistant said he was "out campaigning."
The Green Party's Andrew Lewis called Lunn's record "appalling" with his support for the asbestos industry, nuclear power and oil tanker traffic. The top issues in the riding are agriculture, health care and greening the economy, he said. "Gary is not helping on any of those fronts."
In the 2006 election, Lewis won nearly 10 per cent of the vote, making him competitive in a riding where Lunn got in with just 37 per cent support. In that election, the Liberals, then led by Paul Martin, ran Sheila Orr, who had sat as an MLA in Gordon Campbell's right-wing first term. The NDP ran Jennifer Burgis, who in this election is running in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. Orr and Burgis each got about 26 per cent of the vote.
This time around, the NDP is running Julian West, who was once a B.C. Green Party member and activist. And the Liberal candidate is Briony Penn, an environmental activist, former reporter for a local environmental television show and writer.
Similar views, different parties
The problem for environment-minded voters, and Lunn's big hope, is people may see little to choose between Lunn's three challengers.
Even the NDP candidate, West, said he sees it that way. "What separates me from Briony on the issues? We're going to vote the same way on everything," he said. "If there was free voting, Briony and I would vote the same way on everything, I suspect."
They even have campaign offices next door to each other, in a busy area near a popular bicycle trail.
If there's a difference, however, it is with the party and how they'd behave once elected. "She's going to be a whipped member of the Liberal party and I'd be a whipped member of the NDP," he said. "She'd vote the wrong way on Afghanistan. She'd hate it."
Penn said the Liberal party has been welcoming and that she so far feels free to speak her mind. When she decided to run, she said, the NDP and Greens also wanted her on their slate. "The Liberals are capable of forming government and getting onto the task immediately," she said. "[Stéphane] Dion has demonstrated his leadership 9,000 per cent, and he's formed an alliance with the Greens."
Dion is supporting Green leader Elizabeth May's bid to win a seat, and he's publicly expressed support for electoral reform to bring in a system of proportional representation. "What more can I ask? I've got a guy in a mainstream party to follow and to support and collaborate with whose actually interested in moving the agenda of climate change forward in a non-partisan form."
At a Sept. 12 event at the University of Victoria with Dion, climate scientist Andrew Weaver pledged support for Dion's plan. So did local environmental writers and activists Guy Dauncey and David Boyd.
Claiming to be the 'real' green
The hope, Penn said, is she can hold onto previous Liberal support in the Saanich-Gulf Island riding and consolidate enough environmental and progressive votes to beat Lunn. "The math is very straightforward," she said. "I need another eight per cent, which is 32 people per poll. It's about 5,000 people... All three parties were asking me because they felt I would be able to bring the vote together."
The idea of voting strategically for Penn sits badly with at least one of her opponents. The Green Party is strong in the riding and strategic voting is a mistake, Lewis said. "If you're going to vote green, you may as well vote for the real thing," he said. "She's green window dressing for the Liberals."
Penn might see running with the Liberals as pragmatic, he added, but it's worse than that. "I think it's really political expediency," he said. "This is the reason we have the mess in Ottawa. It's putting power first... I think people in Saanich-Gulf Islands deserve better than that."
There are clear differences between the Liberals and the Greens, he said, and they should be explored and debated during the campaign. "What we need in this riding is a strong four-way race based on the issues," he said. "If the election in Saanich-Gulf Islands polarizes between Gary Lunn and some other candidate, Gary Lunn will win."
Penn Attacks Lunn's Record
"Gary [Lunn] doesn't read his auditor general reports," said Liberal Briony Penn, the most likely candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands to consolidate environmental and progressive voters against the Conservative cabinet minister.
There were warnings a year before the shut down of the Chalk River reactor and the medical isotope shortage that there would be problems, she said. "Where was Gary? Why didn't Gary read the auditor general's report?"
Lunn did not return calls by deadline.
His failure on Chalk River was consistent with his performance in the government, Penn said. "If you go through every one of Gary's responsibilities in his portfolio, he's similarly irresponsible."
With both Democrats and Republicans promising to increase domestic supplies of oil, many more tankers will be travelling from Alaska down the coast, she said. "There will be tankers going up and down this coast like we have never seen before," she said, but Lunn does not seem to care. "That will destroy the coast."
For people living on multi-million dollar properties in Saanich-Gulf Islands, many of whom have fled Alberta's oil patch, their views will change. "Instead of looking at orcas, they're going to be looking at oil tankers," she said. "Even Gary's hardcore supporters are going to question his sanity on this one."
If people get the sense strategic votes are going to the Liberals, he said, many will vote to keep them out. "I think more people will vote strategically for the Conservatives rather than the Liberals," he said. "If we want to elect someone other than Gary Lunn, we have to put aside strategic voting. It's a wasted vote. It's a zero-sum game."
'A lot of strategic voters'
Whether the candidates like it or not, however, many voters are going to be thinking strategically, said the NDP's West. "I hate to say this, because it's awful for a candidate to say this, but there are a lot of strategic voters. There are a lot of strategic voters in this riding. It is particularly strong in this riding."
As West put it, "There are a lot of people out there who'd just like to defeat Gary Lunn. They don't really mind if it's Briony, or me, or even Andrew."
People felt that way in the last election, too, West said, but there was no clear indication of who was in second place, which would have told people where to put their strategic votes. "The hope is one or the other of us can demonstrate we're the best challenger to Lunn. Then the strategic vote comes to us."
How that might happen, however, is unclear, he said. "Maybe there'll be some polling done in the riding," he said. "We may get more clear signals later."
Endorsements coming
As it happens, a particularly strong signal is on its way and all but delivered.
The Conservation Voters of B.C. are planning to announce their endorsements within the next week, said Christianne Wilhelmson, chair of the organization's board. The non-partisan CVBC will endorse candidates in two or three ridings, and one will likely be Saanich-Gulf Islands.
Asked who the best person to beat Lunn would be, she said, "That's a good question. There are two strong people."
Lewis has done well in past elections, she said, but Penn's views and commitment are well known. "I suspect Briony has a bit more on the record." Asked about West, Wilhelmson said she hadn't heard of him.
When the question was put to Penn of who the CVBC would endorse, her eyes lit up and she gave a wide smile. "I don't know, but I have a pretty good suspicion."
Related Tyee stories:
- Harper's Fearless 'Dirty Gary'
MP Gary Lunn is pro-nukes, oil sands, mega-tankers -- and his riding is one of BC's greenest. - The Closest Race in BC?
In North Island, NDP and Tory foes split last two races by a hair. Here comes round three. - Oil a Slippery Concern for BC's North Coast Natives
Jobs beckon, but Alaskan brings message of caution.
![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
G West
14-09-2008
Drop out
Briony Penn should withdraw - and an NDP candidate should withdraw in an Ontario riding where the Liberals are 2nd to the Conmen.
If the parties won't do it - the voters should do it themselves...
Luke Skywalker
14-09-2008
I Think Ya Got It Backwards...
In 2004 Lunn won with the Liberals placing second with a 3,300 vote margin over the NDP. In 2006 the Liberals and NDP finished in second place in a virtual tie.
That federal riding is more centre-right than centre-left (thinkin' North Saanich, Central Saanich, Sydney) and is held provincially by the Liberals and the Saanich South polls portion contained therein was also mostly won provincially by the Liberals.
If ya take that federal Liberal candidate out of the equation, those votes will splinter more to the Cons than the NDP.
Ergo, you've basically signed, sealed, and delivered the seat to the Cons!
Frank
14-09-2008
G
The Liberals will never work with anyone. Their answer is always the same, vote Liberal to stop the Cons even though they have the same program.
NDPers in the past have deluded themselves to think the Libs are different this time and have walked starry-eyed into the booth to vote for Chretien or Martin only to wake up later and discover they got what they thought they were voting against anyway.
This time I'm not expecting NDPers to move to the Libs, burned too many times. Frankly, if anyone wants to vote "strategically" against the Cons this time around, they'll probably be voting NDP.
Luke Skywalker
14-09-2008
Frank...
As an aside, former New Democrat Gregor Robertson's campaign manager for his centre-left Vision Vancouver's mayoral bid is a fella by the name of Brad Zubyk.
Brad Zubyk is also the federal Liberal communications head here in BC. Imagine that!
In any event, the federal Liberals strength lies in the City of Vancouver and surrounding environs (North Shore, Richmond, and Burnaby). They won all of those seats in 2006 but Van East and came very close in Burnaby Douglas.
Additionally, they have strength in urban Victoria and its two neighbouring suburban seats, including the subject story.
BTW, I will re-iterate that I don't have much faith in national pollster's sub-samples and Strategic Counsel's tracking poll, but here are today's SC's results nevertheless:
Con - 36% (-3)
Lib - 29% (+5)
NDP - 21% (-4)
Grn - 14% (+2)
Luke Skywalker
14-09-2008
That's For BC...
Dem polling results.
Frank
14-09-2008
Luke
Two things, I think you're agreeing with me that the Liberals will never work with anyone, its either vote for us Liberals or forget it.
Second, so Strategic Counsel is saying the Libs and NDP were tied whenever it was they did their last poll? How many people in BC is that poll?
Luke Skywalker
14-09-2008
Frank...
Sounds like the NDP, but I digress.
It's the SC tracking poll of battleground ridings in BC from last night. Sample size - 390.
http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2008/polltracker.html
Frank
14-09-2008
Luke
A. That's not an answer
B. As I've already written, NDPers have in the past voted strategically for the Libs, as electoral results show. Personally I've always thought voting strategically was stupid but that's just me.
C. For what its worth I think the NDP working with the Libs would be like working with the Cons against the Libs, so I don't see any reason for it.
Frank
14-09-2008
Strategic Counsel
That poll only deals with "battleground" ridings, not the whole province.
Luke Skywalker
14-09-2008
Frank...
Ya I know. One would expect the parties to be a lot closer in the "battleground" ridings.
ME2
15-09-2008
comment, FWW
For the Greens, with no chance of winning, it's all about cashing in on the $1,45 (or whatever it is) per vote, and cranking up their national stats.
freebear
15-09-2008
Power Over vs. Power to do
People may consider strategic voting but for a candidate to ask voters to make a strategic vote for them is simply wrong.
I would be more impressed by a candidate who asked you to vote strategically by not voting for them!
Also if the parties wish to ensure they turf Lunn they should agree to marshall support for one candidate; but which one?
It doesn't matter because every voter should have the same choices (except for the Bloc Quebecois of course and small parties)in each riding.
I would be miffed if because of a strategic deal between parties I was not able to cast my vote for the candidate because they were not running.
Unfortunately, I think any and all choices will result in, for the most part, more of the same, whatever the political stripe.
Every party believes in continuous economic growth, all negatively impacting the environment, being unsustainable; with only minor differences between the government policies!
Frank
15-09-2008
Axis of evil
I think Dion feels he's being bullied by the Cons and NDP. Says they're sorta in cahoots. Sad really.
http://www.winnipegsun.com/canadavotes/news/2008/09/15/6770516.html
Frank
15-09-2008
Anyone But Conservative
I have a problem with this.
The Liberals ran roughshod over Canadians through 4 elections, taking advantage of the split on the Right although they used it only to put in the same policies Preston Manning wanted to see. Why shouldn't the Cons be able to do the same now?
So they want to allow the last Cdn companies to be taken over, its not like the Liberals disagree.
Only the NDP stands against that and since we're only around 20% of the population who are we to say Canada should be Canadian-owned when all those Lib and Con voters think different?
From 1984 to today Canada has essentially been run by one party, a party that enjoys the support of about 70% of the 65% that vote.
Whenever we change to a different faction within the Libs and Cons we still get the same result. Why would 2008 be any different?
NicS
15-09-2008
What's Wrong With This Picture ?
Are the Greens not supposed to be the party to vote for if you're concerned for our environment? Yet here in BC Enviro groups and enviros are supporting Campbell's Liberals and Dion's Liberals. Julian West has gone from the Greens to the NDP. Across the country the Conservatives are silently supporting the Greens in the hopes of splitting the NDP vote.
With Dions support for Gordon Campbell's Liberals in BC and Lizzy May in the east, the Federal Liberals are now clearly a rudderless ship.
Being truly green has never been so confusing! My vote though is still for the truest of green parties, the (BC) NDP. Why, because of their Sustainability Policy.
canary
15-09-2008
money's good but integrity is better
ME2 says we're in it for the money! (I just signed up with the green party over the weekend)Not at all...but the money would help for sure!
No,
I'm looking for a leader that has; a track record of REALLY caring about the environment CHECK. Elizabeth May has worked on environmental stewardship(Head of the Sierra Club at one time) for decades,a leader that has pretty conservative fiscal ideas CHECK.(Worked with Brian Mulroney's gov't as a consultant) a leader who is bright,articulate,unscripted and speaks from the head and heart CHECK (listen to any interview with her and you will go away learning something you never thought of before!) and a leader who will do as fine a job of guiding our Canada, at long last towards more responsible behavior in this world like some European countries
( ie; Germany - led by a woman for years)
Yes, I'm really excited about hearing some honest to goodness debate with Elizabeth May on board CHECK. SHE will open the windows and let the fresh air flow in!
NicS
15-09-2008
Link Correction , sorry folks!
NDPSustainabilityPolicy
Mooney
15-09-2008
ABC
I live in the riding in question.
Anyone But Conservative is my motto. And I believe that opinion is fairly widely held.
We haven't had an opposing candidate with the environmental profile of Penn for some time.
Given Briony Penn has the best chance of beating dirty Gary, I'll be voting for her.
A vote for anyone else, is a vote for Lunn. Who by the way, didn't have the balls to show up for Salt Spring's Fall Fair.
alive
15-09-2008
the difference between NDP and the Greens
Well canary,you said it for me:Quote:
That is exactly the difference between her and the NDP!
We do not need any more Mulroney/Reagan policies here, and it is possible to have a green economy without favouring the rich (one more time)!
The greens have lined themselves up alongside the Neocons, let them suffer their fate then!
crackpot
15-09-2008
focus on the candidates
The headline is wrong: Lunn is natural resources minister, not enviro. But I digress.
Despite all this talk of strategic voting, far more important is who the actual candidates are. Briony Penn has a chance against Lunn because she has credibility from years of working on local environmental issues, with visible results. Lewis (Green) has few credentials in this regard, West (NDP) has none.
If I lived in Saanich-Gulf Islands, I'd be voting for Penn. But I don't; I live in Victoria. Here, I'm voting NDP -- and for the same reasons. Denise Savoie has worked hard for Victoria as a city councillor before she became our (incumbent) MP. The Liberal this time around is a retired bureaucrat parachuted in from Calgary and the Green is a 26-year-old who's lived here for less than a year.
There's way too much focus on the leaders and the parties (blame TV for this), and not on the people who are actually going to represent us.
YOU'RE RIGHT OF COURSE, CRACKPOT, AND WE'VE CHANGED THE HEADLINE. MY MISTAKE (TYEE REPORTER ANDREW MACLEOD CERTAINLY KNEW WHICH MINISTER LUNN WAS, EVEN IF HIS EDITOR SPACED OUT) -- DAVID BEERS
Strategic Voter
15-09-2008
polls
Regarding the Strategic Counsel polls quoted above, this is not a reflective cross-section of BC. In those 10 ridings, the Liberals were 6 points ahead of the NDP in BC as a whole (Lib 33, NDP 27).
But in the province overall, the NDP led the Liberals (NDP 29, Lib 28). The same was true in Saanich-Gulf Islands (NDP 27, Lib 26).
So the 8-point lead which Luke Skywalker claimed for the Liberals amounts to only a 2-point shift from 2006. Projected onto the riding, that would put the Liberals only 1 point ahead of the NDP.
Besides, Luke is quoting selectively: in most of those Strategic Counsel polls, the NDP has been leading the Liberals: http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls.asp -- just as they have been in every other poll from every other polling company.
The NDP is MUCH better positioned than the Liberal Party to take seats from the Tories in BC -- this one is no exception.
Strategic Voter
15-09-2008
Fall Fair
Mooney claims that Gary Lunn was not at the Saltspring Fall Fair -- but he was there, on Sunday.
The Liberal and Canadian Action Party candidates were there as well, at least on Sunday.
The NDP and Green Party candidates were there both days.
puckerlips
15-09-2008
ABC it is
Like mooney, I also live in the riding.
I am a life-long NDP supporter, and I worked hard and long for Lynn Hunter when she ran for MP (and won . . . and lost).
The only way to keep Lunn's ass out of a Commons seat is to unite behind the best candidate - the one with the best chance to defeat him.
If the policies and personalities of the three opponents were strikingly different, this might be a more difficult choice.
But, to this ancient voter, they proffer very little in their political differences.
Those who call strategic voting "dumb" are insulting the intelligence of today's voter. We can read polls and sniff the wind, and we are connected to both our neighbours and the web.
When the leading candidate is not just unwanted but abhorrent, strategic voting is almost a necessity.
Right now, Briony Penn is my choice, but if the tide shifts, so will I.
sanamark
15-09-2008
Wishful thinking
That is certainly wishful thinking. The NDP will most likely poll around its traditional 15-18% and will win 30-35 seats.
pender paul
15-09-2008
lunn must go
MP Gary Lunn is a poor choice to send to Ottawa. His narrow views on the environment indicate the depth of his ignorance. His refusal to accept that constituents might have other ideas is appalling--for example, I have been critical of the government's position on Afghanistan and its continuing support for the policies of George Bush. Mr. Lunn has told me in no uncertain terms that he will not respond to any correspondence that criticizes US foreign policy. He obviously agrees with the Bush agenda for the Middle East and the war in Afghanistan. Given the loss of life, disruption of civil society, burden on the federal finances, loss of government services at home due to 'inability of pay' and the contamination of the environment through the activities of war, Mr. Lunn should not be allowed to run for dogcatcher, let alone parliament.
Name
15-09-2008
Briony would have my vote
I don't usually vote Liberal but if I was in that riding and wanted a green MP, Penn would seem to be the logical choice, especially with Dion as her boss.
I heard students in Ontario have set up some sort of vote trading scheme so you can make your vote count if there's no hope in your own riding. Not sure it's even legal, but when people make the effort to vote, they don't want to feel they're throwing it away.
Our system is not set up for anything outside a 2-way race and we need to look at this if 4 and 5 parties is the new norm.
verso
15-09-2008
...
I heard students in Ontario have set up some sort of vote trading scheme so you can make your vote count if there's no hope in your own riding. Not sure it's even legal, but when people make the effort to vote, they don't want to feel they're throwing it away.
Is there anything like this for BC, or any site that tracks how candidates are polling ridding by ridding?
Frank
15-09-2008
sanamark
Perhaps, I'd be happy with that because unlike the Libs at least we won't be losing seats.
politico
15-09-2008
Gary's Blunnders
http://members.shaw.ca/shunlunn/blunders.htm
Go here for all the details of Gary's BLunnders.
sanamark
15-09-2008
Perhaps, Frank...
Unfortunately, to form a government, Frank, your party would need to see significant gains, somewhere on the order of 100 seats.
Never count the Liberal Party of Canada out.
Budd Campbell
15-09-2008
PENN ANTI UNION
When the question was put to Penn of who the CVBC would endorse, her eyes lit up and she gave a wide smile. "I don't know, but I have a pretty good suspicion."
No kidding, Penn. CVBC is, or at least used to be, headed up by one of David Anderson's people.
There's another major difference between Penn and West that this article doesn't touch on, and that's Penn's anti-union attitude, one she shares with many other Dion worshippers. She may have been advised by Liberal HQ to mute those feelings, but I recall seeing them very clearly displayed last year when her Grit candidacy was first announced.
Frank
15-09-2008
sanamark
Yes, I understand the math, thank you. Its actually about 120. Unfortunately, I think the NDP's chances of getting all those seats are as bad as the Lib's chances.
Nothing like blind faith I guess. I prefer to be realistic myself but to each his own.
BC Mary
15-09-2008
Little Mr No-Neck
Pender Paul, you said it just right!
You got me thinking back to when Gary Lunn was first elected as Reform MP.
I lived on Pender Island then and was worried about CBC, with CBC-hating Reformatories getting elected. So I decided to do my civic duty and say Hello to our new MP.
My letter started off by saying that I realized he didn't share my admiration for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation but that I thought he might like to hear from others, so that he could represent all the citizens of Saanich and the Islands.
I told him how important the National Broadcaster had been in my life and said I hoped he would speak up for CBC when it came time to vote on CBC funding annually. Like I say, I thought I was doing my civic duty. I was polite, too.
Nobody who hasn't seen his reply, would believe the nastiness of it. It was clear that Little Mr No-Neck hadn't the slightest intention of representing any but his own interests. He was partisan, rude, patronizing, despicable.
How such a person could have held onto that riding for YEARS, I simply don't understand.
I remember another time. Just before flying to France to visit the Dieppe Canadian battlefield and military cemetery, I stopped in at Lunn's constituency office in Sidney. I had heard that MPs had a supply of small Canadian flags which they gave to people, to leave as a mark of remembrance and respect at these military graves.
But not Mr No-Neck. He had the flags, of course, but he wasn't about to let go of them. His minions hemmed and hawed and refused. I raised my voice a notch and persisted: "Do you have such a large number of constituents visiting battlefields overseas that you've run out of flags?" His stooges hemmed and hawed some more. Then they allowed as how they could "let" me have a dozen little flags.
I'm not so sure that it's Lunn who is NOT a nice person ... or if it's the Reform/Harper party which gives off these unlovely vibes. Whichever, I absolutely do NOT understand how the Reform/Cons have held onto Saanich and the Islands all these years.
I hope for better things this election.
Luke Skywalker
15-09-2008
Strategic Voter
To clarify, the SC tracking poll in the 10 BC battleground ridings.
Same overall results for the 10 close ridings in 2006 and today:
CPC - 35% - 36% (+1%)
Lib - 33% - 29% (-4%)
NDP - 27% - 21% (-6%)
Grn - 5% - 14% (+9%)
Greens are biggest gainers and NDP losing most ground.
NADA. Just this weekend and today as well the Greens are second place in in BC in both the Ipsos and Angus Reid Strategies polls.
But again, all of these polls don't mean much. (poor sampling, oversampling in some geographic areas, small sample sizes, IVR technology, online polling, etc.)
If you REALLY want to know the final overall outcome in BC (and extrapolate to individual ridings), look at the Mustel poll and the large sample "BC only" Ipsos poll to be released in the final week of the campaign.
Mustel was virtually bang on in their final BC federal voting intentions prediction in 2004 and 2006:
http://www.mustelgroup.com/accuracy.asp
Frank
15-09-2008
Luke
What would be the point if its in the final week? Why not just wait a few more days and see the actual results?
Mustel doesn't have polls out right now and therefore they're irrelevant.
Strategic Voter
15-09-2008
polls
I wrote: "the NDP has been leading the Liberals just as they have been in every other poll".
Then Luke Skywalker wrote: "Just this weekend and today as well the Greens are second place in in BC"
Uh, yes, and the NDP are LEADING THE LIBERALS in those polls as well. In the Angus Reid poll you mention, it is NDP 24, Liberals 13.
Show me a poll in which the Liberals are ahead of the NDP province-wide. Maybe if you scratch around you will find one. But I can show you at least 10 with the NDP up on the Liberals, sometimes by as much as 10 points. e.g., EKOS, Sept. 12: Con 35, NDP 28, Lib 19, Green 16. Harris-Decima, Sept. 15: Con 40, NDP 29, Lib 23, Green 8.
NDP is the only "ABC" choice in Tory-held ridings in BC.
Gustav
15-09-2008
ABC
Strategic Voter is right. The NDP is the main challenger to the Conservatives in BC, which is why Harper has begun training his fire on the NDP.
I suspect that Saanich-Gulf Islands is no different from other ridings in the sense that most voters choose the party, not the local candidate. (How else could Lunn have got elected?) So even if Penn is better known that West, the NDP will still be most voters' choice to knock off Lunn. Meanwhile, a vote for the fourth-place Greens can only have a spoiler effect.
Luke Skywalker
15-09-2008
Polls Again....
Ipsos from last week with larger BC sample size (464):
CPC: 43%
Liberal: 27%
NDP: 16%
Grn: 13%
Nanos from today:
Western Canada:
CPC: 45% [-4% from 2006 election]
Liberal: 29% [+6% from 2006 election]
NDP: 18% [-4% from 2006 election]
Grn: 8% [+3% from 2006 election]
http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC-Nanos-September-15-2008E.pdf
Now is that Liberal surge happening in AB or SK? Doubt it. Manitoba. Don't think so. That obviously leaves BC, which has the largest federal Liberal MP contigent west of Ontario.
Separate BC numbers will be released by Nanos Friday.
Remember that Nanos predicted the 2006 election by 1/10 of 1% for each federal party in its final poll release????
As for BC, anyone who thinks that voting other than Liberal in the following ridings should take a refresher course in politics 101. ;)
1. Vancouver Quadra
2. Vancouver South
3. Vancouver Centre
4. Vancouver Kingsway
5. Richmond
6. North Vancouver
7. West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country
8. Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca
9. Newton--North Delta
10. Delta--Richmond East
11. Fleetwood--Port Kells
12. South Surrey--White Rock--Cloverdale
13. Port Moody--Westwood--Port Coquitlam 14. Saanich--Gulf Islands
15. Kelowna--Lake Country
16. Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo
17. Cariboo--Prince George
18. Langley
19. Okanagan--Coquihalla
20. Okanagan--Shuswap
21. Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon
22. Prince George--Peace River
23. Kootenay--Columbia
24. Abbotsford
asher
15-09-2008
"I don't live in this riding but..."
Meanwhile at a Liberal campaign office...
"Okay guys some of you go to the Tyee and post comments supporting Brionny Penn." Some of the above comments sound very rehearse. Ah, Liberal political machine, is there any way you won't try to manipulate and deceive me? Could someone at the office kick David Anderson in the ass for me?
But for me, the first day of the election campaign summed up what Brionny Penn running for the Liberals meant: her election campaign team erected a huge billboard of her in the middle of a nature park! Nothing says caring for nature and the environment than a plastic sign and 2 X 4s. Maybe the local Liberals could spell out "Vote for Penn" with dead Vancouver Island Marmots. A good project for Dominion Janitorial Services perhaps.
You can call yourself an enviromentalist but if you are a puppet of a party of corporate capitalism your face will get nailed to a tree.
Mooney
15-09-2008
Fall Fair
@strategic voter.
I was volunteering in a booth and could have missed a drive by appearance by Lunn on the run , but I doubt it.
I have just communicated with some other attendees at the Salt Spring Fall Fair on Sunday, who have verified to me that Lunn did not appear. So I'm calling bullshit. You're either taken in by it, or spreading it around.
Mooney
Gustav
15-09-2008
Conservatives with a capital L
In Vancouver Kingsway voters are unlikely to be hoodwinked by the Liberals a second time. They should know that voting NDP is the only sure way of defeating the Conservatives--both the official Conservative candidate and the one running as a Liberal.
Julian West
15-09-2008
Fall Fair
Mooney, I was at the Fall Fair, and Gary Lunn was definitely there. I spoke with him several times. In fact, I asked him to sign my nomination papers, but he declined. :-)
If you don't believe me, CPAC was at the fair to interview most of the candidates, so you'll probably see footage of Lunn at the fair if you watch their program later this week. (It's just possible that they will only use footage from the main interview they did with him in Sidney on Saturday, but I'll be surprised if they don't show him walking around the fair as well.)
Julian
alive
16-09-2008
strategic waste of a vote
About strategic voting: the only thing that counts is how many seats each party gets!
Once the new parliament sits, your local member is merely one vote for or against.
The overall picture is what to think about, or we will wind up much the same as we are now!
It should be clear to all that Liberals and Conservative now have a new friend in the Greens, so what is left? (pun intended)
freebear
16-09-2008
Poll: No more polls?
Why pay any attention to polls?
Do you watch polls so that you can vote for the 'winner'?
Election polls should be made illegal!
In a sense, isn't a poll trying to report results before an election is finished?
People use polls to avoid actually engaging as a citizen in an election campaign!
Go to a riding debate to inform your vote! Speak with a canadidate or two, and if your mind is made up good for you!
The only pole that matters is the one on election day.
All of the posts referencing polls I just skip; preferring to read actual thoughts instead!
Budd Campbell
16-09-2008
As for BC, anyone who thinks
As for BC, anyone who thinks that voting other than Liberal in the following ridings should take a refresher course in politics 101. ;)
1. Vancouver Quadra
2. Vancouver South
3. Vancouver Centre
4. Vancouver Kingsway
5. Richmond
6. North Vancouver
7. West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country
8. Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca
9. Newton--North Delta
10. Delta--Richmond East
11. Fleetwood--Port Kells
12. South Surrey--White Rock--Cloverdale
13. Port Moody--Westwood--Port Coquitlam 14. Saanich--Gulf Islands
15. Kelowna--Lake Country
16. Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo
17. Cariboo--Prince George
18. Langley
19. Okanagan--Coquihalla
20. Okanagan--Shuswap
21. Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon
22. Prince George--Peace River
23. Kootenay--Columbia
24. Abbotsford
Luke, can you possibly explain how on earth you developed this list? The Liberals were third last time in many of these districts.
Hyeena
16-09-2008
Tories
McLintock will win victoria-beacon hill. Last thing we need is a liberal.
Mooney
16-09-2008
Angus/ Ipso Reid
It always amazes me when people start quoting poles as if they actually mean anything other than what the person paying for the poll intended.
I guess a lot of you aren't old enough to remember the Angus Reid poll that had Kim Campbell and the Consevatives winning with her becoming the Prime Minister of Canada in a landslide 44% victory.
This was just before the election where the Conservative party was decimated, including Kim Campbell who lost her seat.
The loss was attributed to Lyin Brian and his pro American policies.
That would be the lyin Brian who is Stephen Harper's mentor.
Strategic Voter
16-09-2008
Poles
> It always amazes me when people start
> quoting poles as if they actually mean anything
Hey! Some of my best friends are Poles!
Luke Skywalker
16-09-2008
The First REAL BC Poll...
Mustel:
CPC - 39% (+2% from 2006 election)
NDP - 25% (-4% from 2006 election)
Lib - 24% (-4% from 2006 election)
Grn - 12% (+7% from 2006 election)
The NDP and Liberals virtually tied for 2nd place.
More interestingly, the CPC now has a net +6% spread (over both the NDP and Liberals) from 2006, which will give them a very strong potential shot at another 9 BC seats (4 NDP and 5 Liberal).
http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20080916.pdf
ME2
16-09-2008
about boneheadedness
Anybody who is truly "green" (not just the party) and who wastes his / her vote by not voting strategically, thus ensuring another win for Lunn / Harper, does not deserve the vote, even though it may be a right.
G West
16-09-2008
Mustel...the gold standard...
Mustel... the gold standard - (luke skywalker) now has the NDP AHEAD of the Liberals in BC.
I think the fact you even posted that result merits you a lot of credit luke.
Now could you tell us, please, about the open bidding policy of the Campbell Liberals.
I'm particularly interested in how a little outfit called Western Pro Show Rentals ended up with a no-bid contract for at least $90,000 to handle a little shindig for the CEO Premier's fifth annual regional and provincial award ceremonies.
More openness and accountability I guess.
G West
16-09-2008
Because, luke
The CEO is still playing the same old tricks - living the same old lie about honesty, accountability and openness that he was playing when this story was written:
http://thetyee.ca/News/2005/06/15/BigContracts/
Campbell and his story about doing the 'right' thing is getting awfully old and worn out, don't you think?
Frank
17-09-2008
Luke
Your "first real" BC poll was taken almost 2 weeks ago (Sept 2nd to 8th).
Mustel is out of date.
Luke Skywalker
17-09-2008
The Roll a Pollee
Strategic COunsel's 10 battleground BC ridings (interesting but still not Mustel) ;)
CPC - 43% (+8% from 2006 election)
Lib - 25% (-8% from 2006 election)
NDP - 17% (-10% from 2006 election)
Grn - 7% (+10% from 2006 election)
http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2008/polltracker.html
G West
18-09-2008
That's right luke
Mustel has the NDP ahead of the Liberals.
The only puzzle is why they aren't a lot further ahead. Certainly on performance, the Liberals have been a big disappointment so far.
That's the problem with a party that doesn't believe in anything but power.