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Economic Clairvoyant
VIDEO: Peter Schiff predicted collapse. He has a new vision.
A lone voice of caution in a sea of misinformed optimism.
From the great wash of financial experts across the cable TV spectrum, a clairvoyant has emerged. In several clips from 2006 and 2007, a little-known analyst named Peter Schiff predicted -- to a remarkably accurate degree -- the collapse of the U.S. economy. And those videos are now climbing up the YouTube charts.
"When you see the stock market come down," he says in one early clip, "and the real estate bubble burst, all that phony wealth is going to evaporate, and all that's going to be left is all the debt we accumulated to foreigners."
And in another: "This is going to be an enormous credit crunch. The party is over for the United States."
As the economic situation across the globe has become more dire over the last few weeks, the Schiff montage has amassed half a million views on YouTube (an astounding number, considering the dry subject matter).
Before all this happened, Schiff was just one of many so-called financial experts that made the rounds on TV news. The president of an investment strategy company called Euro Pacific Capital, and a financial advisor to former presidential candidate Ron Paul, Schiff was a rare voice of skepticism during the bull market years, often mocked by cheery analysts that couldn't see more than a few months into the future.
Now, of course, Schiff has been vindicated. The popularity of the montage video caught the attention of cable news networks this week, and Schiff's most recent appearance on CNBC, in which he is introduced through a reference to the video, is now a hit online as well.
Aside from the fact that Schiff clearly understood the financial crisis better than most, the montage video also raises questions about the role the media has played -- and hasn't -- in this ongoing economic downward spiral. Back in 2006 and 2007, most of the other panelists on these shows thought Schiff was out to lunch. Why didn't more experts see this coming, and do something about it?
Take Arthur Laffer -- a well-known economist and head of the research group Laffer Associates. "I think Peter's just totally off base," he says in response to Schiff at one point. "I just don't know where he's getting his stuff."
Or Ben Stein, the sometimes-economist and sometimes-comedian, who advised viewers to ignore Schiff's warnings and buy up financials for bargain-basement prices back in 2007 because they couldn't possibly go any lower. He suggests Merrill Lynch -- and we all know what happened to them.
Now, with the consequences of the credit crisis clear, and the rising economic troubles a constant topic in the media, shouldn't we be worried we're getting bombarded with the same kind of misinformation? It's easy to see how commentators unqualified to assess the situation could further propel the economic downward spiral.
Luckily, we've got Schiff, and his keeper, a YouTube user named jdouche, whose previous videos warned of a corrupt banking system, to set things straight.
By the way, for those with any money left in the bank, Schiff warns the devaluation of the US dollar could be next.
Related Tyee stories:
- Bring on the Real Estate Crash
My generation has been shut out of the housing market for years. Something's gotta give. - A Wildfire Expert Views the Money Meltdown
What SoCal's blazes should teach Wall Street. - Why BC's Credit Unions Aren't Melting Down
'We're more traditional,' says North Shore's CEO. Are you listening Wall Street?
![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
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- Conservative MP says he might vote against budget, then 'clarifies' his position
- Genetically modified plants won't take root with councillors in Richmond, BC
- Hundreds at Vancouver rally to support Quebec students
- Could Fort Mac become an eco-tourist hotspot?
- Rick Hansen's Man in Motion anniversary tour concludes in Vancouver
- The Gem of Canadian Science that Harper Killed
- Who Mowed Down the Premier?
- Canada's Economy, Deconstructed (by a 12 year-old)
- Death in Remand: a Tyee Inquiry
- Now Is the Time to Talk up Big Ideas
- Bill C-38: the Environmental Destruction Act
- Sexism Tinges Criticism of Teachers' Job Action
- 'A Gut Feeling'
- Bias in BC's Pesticide Decision? Follow the Bouncing Verbs
- The Ethics of Addiction Studies
- The Gem of Canadian Science that Harper Killed
- Sexism Tinges Criticism of Teachers' Job Action
- Now Is the Time to Talk up Big Ideas
- The Ethics of Addiction Studies
- Bill C-38: the Environmental Destruction Act
- Alberta Fills Pipes with Corrosive Denial
- Bias in BC's Pesticide Decision? Follow the Bouncing Verbs
- How Our Immune Systems Exaggerate Fear
- BC biotech company seeks approval for GM apple
- What's Behind BC's Doors?
- Bias in BC's Pesticide Decision? Follow the Bouncing Verbs
- Death in Remand: A Jail Crammed with Risk
- The Ethics of Addiction Studies
- What's Behind BC's Doors?
- The Gem of Canadian Science that Harper Killed
- Sexism Tinges Criticism of Teachers' Job Action
- Should You Run from that Medical Test?
- 'The Dictator'
- Death in Remand: Stacked Deck
- 'Moonrise Kingdom'
- Double lung recipient dances on Ellen show
- ISS astronauts grab DragonX space capsule by the tail with Canada Arm
- Metro Vancouver gas prices peak at record levels
- Ottawa posts $9-billion deficit in March despite pledge to avoid spending spree
- BC phases out AirCare to focus on fighting bigger vehicle emissions
- Tsunami senors to be dropped into deep sea off of Vancouver Island
- Student groups file court challenge against Quebec protest law
- ...while on the streets, pirates and ninjas put aside mutual animosity to join student protests
15
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Van Isle
3 years ago
I was told a number of years
I was told a number of years ago that all bubbles will burst. That, I understand, is the basics of Economics 101.
bun
3 years ago
Schiff was right, but hardly "lone" voice
Note to caption writer : Schiff has been a welcome voice of sanity, but really now, he is FAR from being the "lone voice of caution". Commentators like Nouriel Roubini, Stephen Roach, Mike Shedlock, the blog Calculated Risk, Eric Janszen, Barry Ritholtz, etc etc have been stating the obvious for just as long, or longer.
But Schiff, et al remain anomalies as far as the MSM goes - they are STILL going back for commentary to the SAME people who have gotten it _completely_ wrong all these years. Which is why I have stopped reading the MSM ages ago, and stick to the sites like the Tyee, and selected blogs.
asp
3 years ago
US May Lose Its 'AAA' Rating
This is another great clip, the one guy is horrified that someone would say such things about the US!
http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=QOAcd14bP8M
Cynic
3 years ago
That's right, Bun. Many
That's right, Bun. Many analysts have seen this coming for years, it's simply that you never see them in the corporate cheerleader media. Thankfully via the internet we can access genuine analysis of the manipulated casino economy. The essential fact that we'll likely never see in the msm is that money is debt-based, i.e. loaned into existence, but only the principal is created with no provision made for the payment of interest. The interest burden grows over time, resulting in today's situation where debt exceeds the money supply by more than three times.
No need to wonder any longer what is happening with the economy. There is nowhere near enough money in existence to pay off the debts in society, and every new injection of money exacerbates the problem. This entirely manufactured crisis is just the latest in a series that will never end without money reform, so let's get used to it. Might as well take the red pill, learn about the banking scam, and enjoy the ride down the rabbit hole.
James Burns
3 years ago
Laziness
What a friggen joke. This article just goes to show the simply spectacular idiocy of the MSM. The fundamentals have always been clear for anyone taking the time to look. It was always just a matter of timing. Exactly when the collapse would happen was the tough part. The rot certainly went on for longer than I thought it would, but that is more a sign of the extent of denial, and just how far people were willing to fabricate value.
The real story is why the MSM is so fantastically stupid and poorly informed. The simple answer is corporate censorship. Hell even the Tyee and a huge number of so-called capitalist commenters here pooh-poohed the rather crystal clear threats to the world economy. And the reason for that is simply too much respect for the MSM, and not enough for simple commonsense and empirical observation.
The same goes for Obama. A step in the right direction, yes. But where the hell are the articles here on the Tyee questioning his team selection thus far? For a so-called progressive publication, the Tyee certainly drags its ass sometimes.
realisticman
3 years ago
How do you define MSM
The Globe & Mail, among many others, has been writing about this for years.
SORRY, WHEN URLS ARE TOO LONG THEY SCRAMBLE OUR PAGE. CAN YOU POST AGAIN USING THE ORIGINAL URL THAT IS MUCH SHORTER? -- TYEE MODERATOR
If one only watches tv news shows then I suppose one might not have seen this coming. Duh. Ask the average person on the street to define ABCP and I expect they would roll their eyes. Is anyone really surprised?
James Burns
3 years ago
Oh please
Once in a blue moon is pathetically lazy coverage of an issue. Set against the rah-rah idiocy of the MSM for real estate and every other financial derivative under the sun, an occasional article on the looming economic dangers is like throwing a handful of sand in the ocean.
There's currently a slew of articles on freedom of speech in Canada by overpaid MSM dorks who want to make sure they and guys like Mark Steyn have the right to pedal hate about whoever they choose. But the real censorship is by corporate interests strangling any coverage of issues that may endanger their immediate profitability.
realisticman
3 years ago
Blue Moon?
Punch 'Subprime' into The Globe archives section and you'll get over 150 articles. That's more than once in a blue moon.
The fact is most people do not read business and finance stories, even if they are right there in their media. Ask the average Joe or Jane who or what is or was Enron (not unlike the banking collapse). It's somewhat sobering to remember that the Enron deck of cards collapsed seven years ago this week. There was lots of press. Financial literacy is poor.
Even Fox News ran this in 2002!
Financially Illiterate: Schools Not Teaching Personal Finance
June 18, 2002
By Jennifer D'Angelo
"NEW YORK — Alarmed by the Enron scandal, Jennifer Muzio decided to review the contents of her 401(k) plan. But like so many other Americans who were similarly inspired, her eyes quickly glazed over terms like "average maturity" and "expense ratio."
"To this day I don't have a clue when it comes to personal finance," said the 25-year-old New Yorker. "Why people buy stock, why they sell it, I have no idea. It wasn't something I learned in school."... The Onion, a popular satirical newspaper based in New York City, recently spoofed the nation's financial illiteracy with its faux headline: "Americans Would Be Outraged if They Understood Enron Collapse."...the issue is more that teachers "don't know the material themselves."
"They are afraid that students will ask questions that they don't have the answers to," he said. "So they steer clear." "
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,46899,00.html
murdock
3 years ago
Dukes of Burgundy
The first nation run on 'tick.
When Charles the Bold finally ran out of available credit, his Italian Mercenaries went on to become "free lances".
If Peter is right, then we should be more concerned about what the American Troops scattered about the globe will do when their paper money paychecks bounce sky high...
Ultimately this has all been seen before...about 500 years ago actually.
carfreed
3 years ago
economists
So... maybe Obama will ask him aboard?
James Burns
3 years ago
Get real
150 over what time frame? Are they all negative? You're saying nothing. 150 articles over a period of a year is nothing, nada. 150 handfuls of sand in the ocean. Was it over a month, a year, two years?
What's more having domain knowledge of finance doesn't automatically lead to better behavior, unless it's paired with best practices, and a financial environment that doesn't reward criminal activity.
Enron and the banking crisis are quite simple: executives cooked the books. They lied and they stole money. Not a lot you need to know. It is prevented through judicious regulation.
KWD
3 years ago
Peter Schiff is getting MSM
Peter Schiff is getting MSM attention because MSM has no choice. They’ve run out of ways to respin the endless growth story. And they can no longer deny what we’ve known since Aristotle: There are limits to growth.
But Schiff is hardly a rare voice and he’s hardly novel. Hell, if I had access to You Tube in the 60’s a couple of my university profs would have gotten the Schiff treatment years ago.
However, as much as Schiff is bang on with respect to where markets (foreign and domestic) are going in the near future and how governments are dealing with today's financial crisis, he's still caught inside the capitalist box.
His remedy http://tinyurl.com/6fo2jh is to cut social spending by gov't, cut gov’t and encourage consumerism to generate "real wealth". He actually believes that doing the same thing to foreign markets, i.e. over-investing and driving foreign stock prices out of sight, will be our salvation. It will shift real wealth back to US and North American markets.
Unfortunately, he completely ignores some pretty basic physical laws, and biological principles, that are beyond the control of the market.
The global economy may see a recovery after the US dollar tanks but the frequency and severity of future global financial crises is on the increase.
We live in a finite world, particularly with respect to cheap energy and it's availability for consumer goods production.
realisticman
3 years ago
"There's a sucker born every minute"
Google 'sub prime danger' and 1,240,000 references pop up in 1.2 seconds. Any suggestion that the MSM ignored this is ridiculous. As too is the suggestion that any corporate censorship suppressed details of the financial details of those worthless loans and other reckless practices. It was all there for all to see; Enron, ABCP, Ninja Mortgages, Credit Default swaps, pumped ratings and Ninja credit cards are next. Financial ignorance simply depends on which media sea one swims in.
James Burns
3 years ago
And some suckers refuse to learn from their mistakes
Google? How many of those are blogs and alternate media? Instead of getting better you're getting worse. If it was so obvious in the MSM why did authorities let it happen? Jezuz RM who are you trying to fool? Yourself?
Frank
3 years ago
James
realisticman was one of those who constantly refused to believe anything bad was happening. Argued it for a year as it was happening and posted oodles of links that "demonstrated" everything was fine.