Opinion

Where this Election Will Be Won

Fourteen ridings in BC's North and Fraser North will decide it.

By Will McMartin, 8 May 2009, TheTyee.ca

Prince Rupert

Northern towns like Prince Rupert have seen steep population declines.

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*Story updated at 5:30 on May 8, 2009.

All voters are important, of course, and every vote counts. But voters in two separate and distinct B.C. regions will be vital -- more important than the others, as it were -- to the outcome of the provincial-general election on May 12.

Simply, the next provincial government will be formed by the party that wins a majority of legislative seats in Fraser North -- home to 11 Lower Mainland ridings located on the north side of the Fraser River, stretching from Boundary Road in the west to Mission in the east -- and in B.C.'s North, which has 10 electoral districts.

The two regions are a study in contrasts, economically and politically. Fraser North is a mostly-urban region, increasingly populous and prosperous, while the sprawling, largely rural North is suffering from a declining population and diminishing prosperity.

In electoral terms, Fraser North during the latter half of the 20th century traditionally backed left-of-centre parties, but over recent decades has returned a growing number of right-of-centre MLAs.

The North, however, after historically backing free-enterprise parties, has become increasingly supportive of the New Democratic Party.

Mapping BC's voter regions

In analyzing B.C. elections, it is useful to divide the province into 13 distinct regions and sub-regions that feature common geographies, voting histories and socio-economic profiles. In 2005, five of those regions strongly endorsed the BC Liberals, and another five backed the New Democrats. The remaining three had mixed results.

The five BC Liberal regions were the Okanagan, Fraser Valley South (ridings located on the south side of the Fraser River, stretching between White Rock and Chilliwack), Vancouver Westside, Richmond and the North Shore. In 2005, these regions had a combined total of 26 seats, and Campbell's Liberals captured all but one.

The five regions favouring the New Democrats were Vancouver Island South, Vancouver Island North, Vancouver Eastside, North-Central Surrey and the Kootenays. The NDP in 2005 captured 23 of the 30 seats in these regions.

In their five regions, BC Liberal candidates garnered in excess of 318,000 votes -- a whopping 135,000 more than their NDP counterparts.

And in the five NDP regions, the New Democrats captured about 350,000 votes -- which was 73,000 more than the BC Liberals.

If current public opinion polls are to be believed, little change will occur in any of these 10 regions on May 12. While a handful of seats may move from one party to the other -- possible BC Liberal pick-ups include Vancouver Kensington, North Island and Saanich South; and possible NDP gains could occur in Comox Valley, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Kootenay East and Boundary-Similkameen -- the total number likely will be insufficient to affect the overall outcome.

Worth watching

That leaves three regions that had indeterminate results in 2005 -- Thompson-Coquihalla, Fraser North and the North.

In Thompson-Coquihalla four years ago, the BC Liberals garnered about 41,000 votes and won three seats. The New Democrats were close behind at 36,000 votes, but took just one electoral district.

Not much will change in this region on May 12. BC Liberal cabinet minister George Abbott will easily win re-election in Shuswap, while the NDP's Harry Lali ought to retain his redrawn Fraser-Nicola constituency.

The other two ridings -- Kamloops-North Thompson and Kamloops-South Thompson -- should be interesting to watch on election night for several reasons. First, the boundaries of these two districts have been significantly redrawn.

Second, as a consequence of the first, BC Liberal cabinet minister Kevin Krueger abandoned the former riding, which he first won in 1996, to seek election in the latter.

And third, Kamloops is B.C.'s historic bellwether. The city has returned a government MLA in every B.C. general election since 1903, when political parties first appeared in provincial contests. For that reason alone, the Kamloops ridings will be closely watched on election night, although with just two seats at stake, the outcome will have little impact on the province-wide results.

Growth of Fraser North constituency

We return, then, to our two seat-rich, highly-competitive regions. Let's look first at Fraser North.

A century ago the region had but two legislative seats: New Westminster and Dewdney. That number became three when Burnaby got its own MLA in 1924, and then four after Burnaby became a two-member riding in 1956.

It grew to six in 1966, when Coquitlam separated from Dewdney and Burnaby was split into three electoral districts; to seven in 1979 when Coquitlam was split in two; and then to eight in 1986 when Dewdney became a dual-seat constituency.

Further redistribution in 1991 and 2001 gave the region 10 legislative seats, and a recent redrawing of the electoral map has raised that number to 11 for the current election.

The North also rises

The North elected four MLAs a century ago -- two in the Cariboo, and one each in Skeena and Atlin. Redistribution after completion of the Grand Trunk Pacific in 1914 saw the elimination of one of the Cariboo seats and Skeena, and the creation of Fort George, Prince Rupert and Omineca, for a new total of five.

That number grew to six in 1924 with the restoration of Skeena; seven in 1933 with the addition of Peace River; eight in 1956 after the Peace was split into North and South districts; and nine in 1979 after Fort George was divided into Prince George North and Prince George South.

The region hit its current allotment of 10 seats in 1986 when Cariboo returned to being a two-member district. Five years later, after abolition of B.C.'s two-member ridings, Cariboo was divided into north and south districts.

The voting history of these two regions has been far from consistent (see sidebar).

Volatile Voting Regions

Who BC's North and North Fraser have elected over the years.

A century ago, New Westminister and Dewdney initially returned Conservative and Liberal MLAs. Working-class Burnaby, however, quickly adopted as its party of choice the Cooperative Commonwealth Federation, forerunner of the New Democratic Party. From 1933 until 2001, the CCF-NDP captured 33 of the 39 Burnaby seats contested during general elections.

New Westminster in 1952 moved into the CCF-NDP column, and stayed there until 2001, through 14 consecutive general elections.

The CCF-NDP record in Dewdney was more mixed. The riding rejected the CCF until Dave Barrett scored a breakthrough in 1960, and he held the seat until redistribution six years later when he opted to represent Coquitlam. Dewdney subsequently favoured the Socreds, save for a lone NDP victory in 1972.

Ridings in the Tri-Cities area (Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and Port Moody) featured several close-fought contests between the left-of-centre New Democratic Party and right-of-centre Social Credit party during the 1970s and 1980s, although the NDP won a majority of tilts.

With the collapse of Social Credit in the 1990s, the field opened up for the New Democrats, who captured all nine seats in 1991, and then eight of nine in 1996.

Five years later, however, the NDP was obliterated in the region and Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals captured all 10 seats.

See-saw in the North

The North was a Liberal stronghold -- anchored by Grit stalwarts such as Duff Pattullo (in Prince Rupert) and Harry Perry (in Prince George) -- through most of the first-half of the 20th century, and the Conservatives had to content themselves with the occasional victory.

In 1952, Social Credit, as it did elsewhere across the province, made a breakthrough in the North and remained the region's dominant party until the party's implosion in the 1990s.

Even then, however, the Socreds managed to hold three seats in the North -- Omineca, Peace River South and Peace River North. In 1996, when Social Credit disappeared from the legislature, the two Peace River MLAs, Jack Weisgerber and Richard Neufeld, won re-election as Reform BC candidates.

The CCF-NDP had minimal success in the North prior to the 1990s. Atlin was a party stronghold from 1949 through to 1975, and then again from 1975 to 1991 (when it was eliminated through redistribution), as was Prince Rupert, which returned a CCF-NDP MLA in 1945, and then in every election from 1972 through 2001.

Elsewhere the party racked up only occasional wins -- Peace River (in 1945); Fort George (1945, 1972); Omineca (1945, 1972); Skeena (1972, 1979); and Prince George (1986).

The New Democratic Party's big breakthrough occurred with Social Credit's demise in 1991, when the party captured seven of the region's 10 seats. That was sustained with NDP victories in six northern ridings in 1996, but was followed by the historic wipe-out in 2001.

After winning just two northern seats northern seats (Cariboo North and Omineca) in 1996, the Campbell Liberals won all 10 five years later. – W.M.

And Fraser North and the North were the two closest-fought battlegrounds in B.C.'s 2005 general election.

Five of Fraser North's 10 ridings were taken by the BC Liberals four years ago, while the other five went to the NDP. And in seven of those electoral districts, the margin separating the winner and runner-up was fewer than a thousand votes.

Across the entire region, the New Democrats garnered nearly 108,000 votes, and the BC Liberals took just more than 106,000. The difference separating the two parties was a mere 1,519 ballots over all 10 ridings.

It was similar in the North, where the BC Liberals took six seats, and the New Democrats, four. The popular vote slightly favoured Campbell's Liberals over the NDP, 64,000 votes to 54,000 -- the difference was just 9,633 ballots across the region.

A tale of two economies

Economic circumstances over the last eight years -- since the election to government of Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals in 2001 -- have varied considerably in the two regions.

Fraser North has seen on-going population growth, while the North has experienced significant declines. And while the former region has enjoyed rising prosperity, the latter's economic fortunes have dimmed.

Let's start with municipal populations in both regions between 2001 to 2008.

Burnaby's population has increased by more than 14,000 (to 218,000); New Westminster's by 6,500 (to 64,000); Coquitlam's by 1,200 (to 121,500); Port Moody's by 6,300 (to 31,500); Port Coquitlam's by 1,700 (to 55,600); Maple Ridge's by 7,400 (to 74,000); Pitt Meadows's by 1,800 (to 17,400); and Mission's by 4,300 (to 37,000).

It's a much different story in the North, where nearly every municipality has fewer residents today than it did eight years ago. Prince George's population is down over the period by 1,100 (to 74,100). Williams Lake has lost 463 (to 11,100); Mackenzie, 800 (to 4,600); Quesnel, 700 (to 9,600); Vanderhoof, 700 (to 3,900); Smithers, 250 (to 5,300); Terrace, 1,500 (to 10,800); Kitimat, 1,600 (to 9,200); and Prince Rupert, 2,200 (to 12,900).

What is truly stunning is the proportion of population that has been lost in several communities. Vanderhoof has seen 18 per cent of its residents depart in the last eight years; Prince Rupert, Kitimat, Mackenzie and Terrace have seen declines of more than 14 per cent each; Quesnel is down seven per cent; and Williams Lake, four per cent.

Just two northern municipalities have gained population since the turn of the century, both in the oil-and-gas-rich Peace River country. Fort St. John is up by 2,300 (to 18,800), and Dawson Creek has grown by 630 (to 11,400).

A comparison of building permits issued in 2001 and 2008 further illustrates the discrepancies over the period between Fraser North and the North.

In 2001, the cumulative value of industrial building permits in Burnaby, Coquitlam, Maple Ridge, Mission, Pitt Meadows, Port Coquitlam, and Port Moody was $20.3 million. Eight years later, that figure had more than tripled to $65.6 million.

Across the North, industrial building permits totalled $9.7 million in 2001; and, like it did in Fraser North, nearly tripled to $26 million in 2008.

Yet nearly all of that increase was in the Peace River's gas industry. Excluding the Peace figures, industrial building permits in Northern B.C. inched up from $8 million to just $9.3 million between 2001 and 2008.

Businesses plummet in North

And despite an overall increase in business establishments in B.C. in the period between 2001 to 2007 -- from 157,000 to 169,000 -- the number of businesses operating in the North fell dramatically. (See link, here.)

Looking at just three development regions -- Cariboo, Nechako and North Coast -- more than 1,500 businesses disappeared, leaving a total of under 10,000. It was a different story in the Peace River district, where 650 businesses were added.

Overall, the number of business establishments in B.C.'s North between 2001 and 2008 fell from 14,700 to 13,800. Those numbers surely have worsened in the current recession.

Finally, let's consider the growth of labour force income between 2001 and 2006. Across B.C. as a whole, labour force income in aggregate rose from $88.6 billion to $120.4 billion -- an increase of 35.8 per cent.

In Burnaby, the increase in total labour force income was about the same as the provincial average, up 35 per cent -- from $4.0 billion to $5.5 billion.

So, too, were the increases elsewhere in the region: New Westminster, 28.7 per cent; Coquitlam, 28.2 per cent; and Maple Ridge, 38.3 per cent.

In much of the North (again excluding the Peace River region), however, aggregate labour force income over the period grew by much less than the provincial average.

In Prince George, it grew by 28.2 per cent (from $1.9 billion to $2.4 billion), in the Cariboo Regional District, by 27 per cent (from $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion), and in the two northwest regional districts -- Kitimat-Stikine and Skeena-Queen Charlotte -- by an anemic 18.4 per cent (from $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion).

Fourteen seats very much up for grabs

A total of 21 seats will be contested in Fraser North and the North on May 12. Just seven may be considered "safe" for either of the two major parties, four for the BC Liberals -- Peace River North, Peace River South, Nechako Lakes and Port Moody-Coquitlam -- and three for the New Democrats -- North Coast, Port Coquitlam and New Westminster.*

That leaves 14 electoral districts in the toss-up column from just these two regions -- more than all the other swing-ridings combined from across the rest of the province.

Will Fraser North revert to its historic, working-class roots and endorse the NDP, or take another step into the arms of the BC Liberals?

Will the North, battered by economic decline, opt for B.C.'s free-enterprise party, Gordon Campbell's Liberals, or vote for a more-activist government as promised by Carole James and the New Democrats.

The party that wins a majority of seats in these two regions will be elected to government on May 12.

Related Tyee stories:

[Tyee]

Veteran political analyst Will McMartin is a Tyee contributing editor.

36 Comments:

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  • organiccanadian...

    3 years ago

    election eering?

    The other media doesn't seem to be talking about a significant factor in this election. Perhaps the tyee will look into it?

    Some individual is spending a ton of money on tv ads against the STV. Doesn't the public have a right to know who is paying that bill, as opposed to the disclaimer at the end = 'authorized by' some accounting firm?

  • morechatter

    3 years ago

    Its A Toss Up

    On what the public has a right to know as just yesterday I was listening to some mindless reporters on TV talking about the economy which they knew ditto? Dah as they talked about Global who they worked for and its backing of Campbell Government as if it was actually telling the news. Felt it was okay to promote the Liberals while keeping the public in the dark when it came to what was going on in the province.
    Something like the RCMP and police who decided it wasn't the 5 zaps that where the problem but rather that the public got hold of the information? Dah.

  • seth

    3 years ago

    regional power

    These two areas have been affected more than any other regions by Campbell pirate power rips.

    The Fraser north people have many Pirate projects on the go there including round two of the Upper Pitt. In the north, Pirate projects and proposals are numerous.
    People in these areas know that Gordon Campbell has sleazed away as much as 50 billion dollars in taxpayer dollars - four convention centre cost overruns per annum for the next 40 years, to his pals in the pirate power business.

    They know that individuals and businesses will face a doubling of electricity rates over the next three years.

    There is a paper written by a professional engineer who has worked in public power at

    http://publicpowerissues.blogspot.com

    This work is the only one that I've seen that proves with references and calculations, the extent of private power ripoff.

    To put a stop to the ripoff progressive voters need to park their vote with the NDP, but dissatisfied BCLiberals need to support the BC Conservative party when they can.

  • cfvua

    3 years ago

    Peace River North

    MIght not be as comfortable for the liberals as they would like to think. Lack of jobs for Bc residents due to allowance of natural gas producers to bting in outside workers to perform menial tasks. Two very capable other candidates who would win by a mile if you take away the habitual liberal vote that would vote for a poodle if they ran one. ould go Green or INdependent. Either way if the liberals do win it will be a serious slap in votes. MUch like 2005 where the incumbent Neufeld lost about 1200 votes to the NDP knocking them down to less than 2-1 victory. Didn't even realize that they should start to pay attention to local concerns after winning by a 6-1 margin in 2001.

  • Rod Smelser

    3 years ago

    Excellent Analysis by Will McMartin

    Will McMartin's article is, like all his other reports, very good. I hope that some of the election night TV panelists will read this article before appearing on screen to "inform" us all.

    Looking at the Campbell Govt's response to all this, the Pitt River Bridge in Fraser North, the new Simon Fraser Bridge project in Prince George plus a committment to four-lane the "Cariboo Connector" all the way from Cache Creek to Prince George, it's clear that they see these two regions as crucial and have a simple, but powerful, approach to the matter.

    That's one of the main reasons Carole James had to get rid of the reflexive, occupationally driven, anti-highways messaging that has plagued the CCF-NDP since the 1950s, and which has reared its politically suicidal head once again with the various anti-Gateway proclamations and diatribes, many of them coming from Liberal controlled "environmental" NGOs and from Liberal professors on the public payroll.

  • Patiently Waiting

    3 years ago

    Error

    "and three for the New Democrats -- North Coast, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain and New Westminster."

    I think you meant to say Port Coquitlam not Coquitlam-Burke Mountain.

    Very interesting article, though.

  • Will McMartin

    3 years ago

    Patiently Waiting

    Er, oops. Writing too quickly and thinking too slowly. I'll ask editor to make change.

    Thanks.

  • pender paul

    3 years ago

    regional power--get with the program

    Seth (regional power) is so typical of the nabobs of negativism that rise to the surface every election. Gordon Campbell and the Liberals have invested for the future—and if you don’t believe me visit the bcIMC website and see where the provincially controlled pension corporation has invested money it receives from public servants. (For the uninitiated, bcIMC is the British Columbia Investment Management Corporation, and the provincial government its only shareholder. The government appoints the director and two of the board members. It invests pension money on behalf of teachers, municipal workers, government employees, college lecturers, etc. And the former minister of finance assured the province that there is no interference from the government.) bcIMC is poised to make a bundle from the sale of electricity to the good folks of Puget Sound. It has money in fish farms and timber holdings on Vancouver Island. It has ensured BC’s environmental goals will remain intact because it has cleverly invested money off-shore, where the environmental laws are more favourable to investment and the nasty carbon dioxide and other pollutants will stay. You won’t find that kind of economic savvy with the NDP, nor have the Greens figured out how to keep pollution at bay. And you know what? When the small ‘run-of-the-river’ generating stations start making a profit and are sold to American multinationals (I’ve been told that negotiations are underway right now for one such company) BC and the pension plan will benefit again because in all likelihood, bcIMC has shares there, too. Always trust the Liberals to do the right thing. I know where my vote is going on May 12th.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    bcMIC

    Pender Paul:

    Kindly tell me about the relationship between Chris Trumpy, the sale of BCRail and the BCIMC and the Executive Council.

    I don't want public agencies selling public assets to provide power to Americans and profits for foreign companies.

    What's wront with your head?

    We need to start looking after our own and remember that every time the Yanks decide to do another flip-flop on softwood lumber.

    If Gordon Campbell gets in for another 4 years there won't be any public servants or public school teachers left to fund anyone's pension plan.

    Wake up man. The Liberals only do the right thing for their friends and that's NEVER the 80% of British Columbia citizens who have been going backwards for the last 8 years.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    And Pender Paul

    In case you didn't know it, the BCIMC was not a creation of your heroes - the Campbell clique.

    It was created under, horror of horrors, the NDP.

    Sometimes my friend, a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.

    I'd still like you to look into Chris Trumpy and the first Campbell Government's involvement in the 'sale' of BC Rail while Trumpy appeared to be playing on both sides of the fence...

    And, for those who care, here's the relevant proof of where the BCIMC came from:

    The British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (bcIMC) was established under the authority of the Public Sector Pension Plans Act, which was passed by the British Columbia Legislature on July 15, 1999. While the corporation is relatively new, through predecessor organizations we have a long history of providing prudent funds management services.

    I'll await your abject apology Paul...

  • Energy Recruiter

    3 years ago

    Same Northern regions could thrive with green power jobs

    Excellent run-of-river and wind resources exist in the central interior and BC north regions. Recently, a Lower Mainland crane company hird 60 people in the Peace River area to help hoist the wind towers at the new Bear Mountain Windpark. Towns like Revelstoke and Atlin have enjoyed employment linked to green, professionally done run-of-river projects.

    The way British Columbians vote in this election will determine if a clean-power career is a viable option in our province. It will also determine whether municipalities can count on this revenue source in their tax base, in many cases making up for the closure of sawmills and other industry.

    Opportunity continues to grow in Alberta for wind turbine technicians. Ontario, with its new Feed-in Tariff electricity program, is a great place for people and companies that want to be a part of this emerging industry.

    In B.C., our most plentiful renewable energy resource is river-based. We have more than 10,000 streams and rivers on Crown land.

    If the fear-based campaign against private power development, primarily against run-of-river hydro, sways voters, it will likely have an impact on job prospects in this important sector.

    Currently, about 1,100 people are employed in well-paying jobs on privately held green energy projects. How many more could benefit if the demand for made-in-B.C. renewable power were allowed to evolve in a positive direction?

  • pender paul

    3 years ago

    pender paul responds to g west

    That was my attempt at sarcastic humour. I'd better not give up my day job. I know all about bcIMC and it seems to me that the government is misusing the pension funds. The provincial government owes the fund nearly $6 billion--the fund earns 0%. Where is the provincial government spending the money--I doubt we'll ever know. The provincial government is suing the tobacco companies, but bcIMC has shares in a company selling fruit flavoured cigarillos to tweenies. The provincial government talks about BC being the best place on earth, while its creation owns shares in companies guilty of participating in some of the worst human rights violations recorded in recent times. And then there is the investment in private power, private water, fish farming feedlots, weapons manufacturers, pornography--the list goes on and on. And what I find so discouraging is that nobody seems to give a damn--not the participants, not the public, and certainly not the politicians. "Follow the money"--well, I've followed the money trail that bcIMC has left and I'm shocked and appalled--we don't live in the "best place on earth" but rather the benthic ooze at the bottom of the swamp. Let us be judged by where we, collectively, spend our money, be it pension funds or short term investments and money held in trust by the provincial government. The need for reform is great--the will on the part of the majority completely lacking.

  • mikev

    3 years ago

    re: Energy Recruiter

    Is there some reason those same jobs couldn't be created by BC Hydro directly? I'm sure a lot of opposition would collapse it it wasn't a case of our current provincial government handing out licenses to print money. Mine would. I'm all for renewable wind and low impact hyrdro power. I'm not at all for crippling a highly successful crown corporation to benefit a few private executives at the cost of we the rate payers. Just a thought.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    Thanks Pender paul

    Print is a difficult medium - sometimes irony just doesn't translate.

    Cheers.

    I think lots of people do give a damn though - but unless we have someone swinging the bat for the public we're in trouble..

  • seth

    3 years ago

    energy recruiter

    You are joking right?

    50 billion dollars over 40 years of mostly springtime power at 12 cents a kilowatt hour that must be sold at 2 cents or less if we are lucky. Power projects that BCHydro could have built for half the price. Hivalue baseload power dams that can't be built because BC Hydro's money is committed to your pirate friends. Doubling and tripling of power rates.

    Wind power technicians. As if!!!

  • biscotti

    3 years ago

    Liberals desperate in Cariboo North

    Cariboo North incumbent Bob Simpson, the NDP's forest critic, has worked very hard as a first time MLA and earned a lot of respect in this constituency.

    The Liberal candidate promised a clean campaign, but quickly reverted to slagging Bob; now they're getting desperate: bringing Campbell in yesterday to try to sway voters, trying to scare people about Softwood Lumber, and send out more slagging material.

    This shows how seriously they take Bob's candidacy and how desperate they are to take him down, by any means necessary. God forbid that they do; he's the best MLA we've had in a long, long time.

    P.S. Ignore the "green power" trolls. I heard one trying to bait Rafe Mair last week in Prince George at a meeting about Run of River. Mulroney said "free trade" would give us jobs, jobs, jobs, too!

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Lib - 55+ : NDP - 30-

    In 2005, the vote spread in favour of the Libs was 4%, the same finding of the then final Mustel poll.

    In the 79-seat legislature, the final outcome was 46 seats for the Libs to 33 for the NDP.

    With the new 85-seat legislature, the additional 6 seats would likely have been evenly distributed resulting in a 49 Lib - 36 NDP seat legislature.

    Both parties each won several seats by very marginal counts.

    During the 2005 election, alot of anger was directed toward the Libs due to the various cutbacks across the province. That certainly galvanized many voters to cast their ballot for the NDP.

    The NDP had momentum in 2005. Thats's also not palpable this time around.

    This time around that same swing voter anger/sentiment is also not palpable in terms of voter motivation. The Libs have also somewhat moderated during their 2nd term.

    According to both Mustel and Ipsos, Campbell has taken a hit after Sunday's leaders debate with his patronizing missive against James.

    Many "soft" female voters have gone from supporting the Libs to either the "undecided" or NDP column this week as a result.

    Whether that's just a short-term backlash will remain to be seen. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that James has seen a bit of movement in her direction this week. That movement of soft female Lib support to the NDP this week may or may not hold by Tuesday evening, which is reflected in both the current Mustel and Ipsos field results.

    In any event, Mustel's doubling of the 4% vote spread from 2005 to 9% in 2009 (virtually confirmed by Ipsos today), suggests that the Libs will have a 55+ to 30- seat count on election night.

    One should understand that the larger the vote spread, the more magnified the seat count is for the victor under FPTP.

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    Luke

    And on Wednesday morning you'll be hapiily celebrating the victory of business over children I guess.

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Frank...

    The incidences of child poverty in Canada and the 3 provinces with the highest levels of same in Canada:

    1. BC - ~22%

    2. Saskatchewan - ~20% (mostly under NDP administration)

    3. Manitoba - ~19% (under NDP administration)

    http://www.campaign2000.ca/rc/rc08/BC_ReportCard08-colour.pdf

    While the figures are relatively similar and yes it's a sad state of affairs...

    What's the diff?

    So what you are REALLY trying to say is ... Don't vote Liberal, Don't vote NDP... but vote anything else, right?

    That's my only logical conclusion.

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    Luke

    Compare BC with BC.

    Child poverty in BC has lead the country for years under the Liberals in supposedly good times. Yet apparently we are to believe that none of this is the Liberal's fault.

    Also, from the Globe :

    "Heavy workloads cited as child workers quit

    The Canadian Press

    May 7, 2009

    Child protection workers in the province are leaving their jobs at an alarming rate largely because of overwhelming work loads, a report by the Pivot Legal Society says.

    The report says the Ministry of Children and Family Development has a staff turnover rate of more than 10 per cent each year, with social workers complaining of high stress levels and a lack of support services.

    The report recommends giving social workers more support and spreading out caseloads so they can do their job better.

    The B.C. Government Employees Union says the government should act on the recommendations to make sure children and families are not put at risk."

  • Frank

    3 years ago

    but then...

    I realize protecting children is not one of Campbell's priorities so he doesn't give a rat's ass if the workers doing that job are leaving. To him its just a way to save more money so he can reduce progressive income taxes.

  • Bison Ravi

    3 years ago

    STV

    "All voters are important, of course, and every vote counts," says Will McMartin, before proceeding to tell us the results of the election in all but a handful of ridings.

    Apparently, some votes count more than others.

    Under first-past-the-post, there are three types of ridings: those safe for the Liberals, those safe for the NDP, and a small number where the election is decided. If you are a voter in the third type of riding, lucky you! If not, why bother voting?

    This is why we need STV: so that, for the first time in BC's history, *all votes will count equally*.

    Actually scrap that: so that *all votes will count*.

  • patricia

    3 years ago

    lol energy recruiter

    I always have a good laugh when people talk about the 1100 jobs in BC as a result of IPPs.

    What you never hear them say is 1100 BC jobs - because if you go up to the IPPs camps, lets say Upper Harrison, 80% of the guys on site are from Quebec and Newfoundland (they get flown home every two weeks).

    Let's move onto full time jobs once the construction is done. Um, how about the massive $4 billion Bute Project (brought to you by Gordon Campbell's friends Plutonic Power and GE)12 full-time jobs MAXIMUM once the project is built. That doesn't take into account the lost tourism jobs and lost logging jobs (Most power houses are remotely operated and don't require must manpower).

    Just 12 full time jobs for about the $16 billion BC Hydro is forced to buy for costly soft power - quite a sweet deal for Donald McInnes and the boys - not such a good deal for the public.

    Blab on about the supposed benefits of private power, but don't bring jobs into it, because that makes you look far less credible when people know the real story.

  • Energy Recruiter

    3 years ago

    Re: Jobs in the private renewable energy sector

    First, re jobs, small renewable projects and BC Hydro:
    BC Hydro does not build the types of green energy projects that are popular today and they also have their hands full running and repairing the system that so many of us have taken for granted.

    BC Hydro has never built wind projects, geothermal projects or biomass projects.
    IPPs have built these kinds of project, all over the world.

    As for hydro-electric plants, BC Hydro’s projects are several hundreds of MW
    whereas the average run of river projects operating in BC is 10 MW.

    While BC Hydro is well suited to do big reservoir hydro projects like their 900 MW
    Site C, more nimble IPPs are better suited at building smaller run of river hydro projects.

    The fact that out-of-province workers who really need the jobs and have a super work ethic compared to spoiled rotten, highest- per-capita in the world water and electricity using BC'ers, well thats not the industry's fault.

    Regarding the Bute projects, there are 17 Plutonic sites planned. Only two of the are currently under construction now (Toba-Montrose). The direct jobs, mostly affecting the Powell River region, are estimated to total 600 person-years (http://www.easttoba.ca/i/pdf/ETMEI_FR.pdf). This does not include the many person-years of employment already received by fish biologists, geologists, geographers, and environmental engineers.

    Re: cost of power, BC Hydro PAYS A REDUCED PRICE FOR SPRING FRESHET POWER, about 50-60% discounted. Amount of power is also reduced at this time of year. So that brings the price back to about 5.5-6 cents a kwh, in line with what we currently pay.

  • Energy Recruiter

    3 years ago

    Facts and emotions, and love of Earth

    For the record, my primary driver has always been a livable Planet for our children and all species.

    Why are the comments of the anti-IPP/Liberal lobby always replete with put-downs, exaggerations, and worst-case scenarios?

    And the response of the pro-clean power industry fact-based, rationalizing, and optimistic? I know there are valid concerns with the rush-to-privatization, and evidence from other jurisdictions shows how quickly standards can be dismissed and rate-payers charged crazy amounts for this essential service, electricity.

    But why not present your facts and sources (eg for the tripling, quadrupling of power rates, or the 'theft' of 500-700 rivers)? What are facts, and what are fears? The put-downs and wild projections of doom speaks volumes about what is largely a fear-based, not fact-based, campaign.

    Bring the concerns forward, to help ensure high standards of environmental oversight and public interest, yes. But the hysteria helps nothing, except perhaps membership sales at Save Our Rivers.

  • patricia

    3 years ago

    Help ensure high

    Help ensure high environmental standards?

    If you are acquainted with the IPP business you realize standards are super low - exemptions from Forestry laws when it comes to wildlife habitat areas, exemptions from road-building standards, allowed to cut right down to stream banks, log in old-growth management areas etc.

    MOE has been gutted and does not have the capacity to monitor these projects - just the way the industry wants it (they are always pushing to 'streamline' environmental regs - what's left of them anyway).

    When the BC Energy Plan (2002 version) was introduced it was clearly about energy deregulation and privatization - the government and IPPBC were pretty upfront about that then. Although the BC government is wrapping itself in a green cloak when it comes to IPPs the fact is the 2002 Energy Plan was introduced when the BC government was actively fighting against the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol.

    One of the many reasons why these projects are such a bad deal (aside from Bill 30, no provincial planning, no assessment of cumulative impacts, weak environmental standards and high cost soft intermittent energy) is the fact that after we pay through the nose ($30 billion and counting for a small fraction of BC's energy needs) we the public will not end up owning the assets.

    We have turned from owners to renters - and while that is good for Cloudworks and General Electric and Plutonic is sucks to be us - the public - that is paying for this sweetheart deal.

    Also, in regards to the private sector bringing in expertise give me a break. Please name the expertise that Plutonic brought to the table (Donald was a penny stock mining promoter with some interesting deals in his past - but he had NO experience in IPP development - which explains why he has numerous former BC Hydro personnel and former BC Liberal staff on his payroll now).

    Regarding the private sector producing power (largely meant for export) at a lower rate that is kind of funny, if it weren't such bs. Can you tell me what the borrowing rate is for private corporations, who sometimes borrow from hedge funds, versus the borrowing rate for BC Hydro. End of story.

    Stopping BC Hydro (please read point 13 of the 2002 Energy Plan) from producing new sources of hydroelectricity was an ideological decision due to the Liberal's quaint belief in the magic and moxie of the market.

    Now the public is left holding the bag, once again, for insider deals which benefit Liberal hacks, former stock market promoters and unsuccessful mining executives.

  • ROBBINS Sce Research

    3 years ago

    Luke--if you consider the

    Luke--if you consider the Ipsos poll--they have the BC Liberals ahead 51-36 on the lower mainland--where the bulk of the population is. To get the final numbers--they got--47% for BC Liberals--this means the BCL's have to be doing rather poorly on Vancouver Island--(expected) and having problems east of hope---a different configuration of the same outcome.

    Mustel and I agree the BC Cons--are 7% in Kamloops--reasonable in Prince George--with Refederation and other protesters hiving off some basis points--Wilf Hanni doing well in East Kootenay--in close races--the BC Liberals could lose 2-3; NDP gain 2-3.

    Vancouver Island is dominated by NDP--we'll see--.

    The lower mainland with the BC Liberals according to Ipsos at 51%--that includes Richmond--Fraser Valley--West Vancouver-Langley where the BC Liberals win by alot usually. We have BC NDP at 41% on lower mainland--as Ipsos said 36%. This 5% difference on the lower mainland translates to a 3% increase for BC NDP in overall popular vote--and a corresponding 3% decrease for BC Liberal--which is what both Angus and I have said at different junctures 44%-42%.

    What the Ipsos poll is really saying is that the BC Liberals are having serious problems in the north and east--Vancouver Island--and if the NDP makes up ground as I have suggested they already have (41%)-on the lower mainland---.

    All of the polls can be interpreted as on balance saying more similar things than different things.

    There is a demographic of female voters who won't vote Carole or NDP---but will not defend Campbell---PLUS--BCL more confident males --some of these may not show up--the NDP always does.

  • WHAT

    3 years ago

    Energy Recruiter

    when you recruit do you look for key words in people resumes?....BC Hydro used to employ a lot of people in BC, Accenture a consulting firm at that! took over the IT and administration arms - outsourcing at it's best to find a few years later that there are flaws in the methodology...in the long run.

  • WHAT

    3 years ago

    Wow!

    I enjoy reading call names, especially when they are trying to exert some idea of what they are saying is truly professional....same mentality that if you are not wearing a suit, you word is worth nothing,,,,same old crap in the highschool sandbox....

  • ROBBINS Sce Research

    3 years ago

    anecdotally--feedback on

    anecdotally--feedback on early returns bc ndp 3-2 over bc liberals--(one half 'exit' won't say)lower mainland Liberal signs first out with yellow banners--reminding people to vote.

    "Vote on May 12"

    Not a word from bc ndp.

    Most important issue in this election--?can the BC Liberals get their vote out-?

  • Umslopogaas

    3 years ago

    Energy Recruiter

    You suggest that B.C Hydro cannot build innovative projects?

    Maybe the dams could be built in Germany - just like those great ferries.

  • Dan the socialist

    3 years ago

    (ridings located on the

    (ridings located on the south side of the Fraser River, stretching between White Rock and Chilliwack)
    ----------------

    lol those ridings will all as usual go Liberal, that is the bible belt and the conservative heartland of Southern BC.

    They are not swing or close ridings but guaranteed liberal seats and the Libs like their Counterparts in Harpers government will win those ridings by a huge majority.

    None of the south Fraser ridings from Cloverdale or White Rock to Chilliwack are up for grabs.

  • ROBBINS Sce Research

    3 years ago

    BC Election---the 11th seat.

    Tier 1 seats to watch: (assuming 3-3 split on new seats) Dissolution-BCL-42 seats, BCNDP -34 seats. 3 each from new 6---BCL-45, BC NDP-37.

    Stikine (BCL), Kamloops (N) (BCL), East Kootenay (BCL), Kootenay (E) (BCL), Burnaby (2) (BCL), Maple Ridge-Mission (BCL), Saanich South (NDP), Comox Valley (BCL), Vancouver Fraserview (BCL), Delta South (BCL).

    Of these 10 seats they are zero sum to BCL///BC NDP--except for Delta South (Vicki Huntington). If BCL loses one half of 10---'5' (see strategic placement of BC Conservative in NE---Refederation throughout province)----BCL (40), BCNDP (42), if BCL loses 5 and wins 1 from NDP-net loss 4 (41) BCL----(40) NDP----if BCL loses 4 of 10 and 1 is Delta South--then BCL (41), BC NDP (41)--Delta South--balance of power.

    Word is that major organizers are being taken from 'easy win' BCL seats to Point Grey. Is the Premier's riding the 11th seat--?

  • biscotti

    3 years ago

    shifting landscape a wildcard

    Yesterday I was talking with a neighbour who was a Social Credit cabinet minister way back when. He spotted my Re-elect Bob Simpson button and started chatting...from his perspective, Gordon Campbell is "in the pocket of the Howe Street Boys".

    He doesn't like the privatization of Hydro by stealth, or the selloff of BC Rail.

    I wonder how many people out here in the hinterland are like him and Rafe Mair when it comes to free enterpriser distaste for the Liberals?

  • Energy Recruiter

    3 years ago

    Libs, NDP, either way renewable energy here to stay

    A productive future for BC will inevitably include, and could even be driven by, a strong renewable energy sector. Our geography is well-suited for it. But more big dams is definitely not the best way to tap into this. Generation projects in run-of-river, wind, geothermal, ocean energy and solar can achieve great things for the people of BC. The skilled workforce capacity-building is also a major benefit, among numerous others.

    Liberal or NDP, no matter who gets into government they will be compelled to develop policy to enable this sector, because it so obviously is an available path to help the province survive the recession and the hollowing out of our more traditional resource-based industries. Not to mention fulfilling on climate change promises.

    Run-of-river is an important 'lead technology' in developing a stable industry. Why? Because of BC's 10,000 plus creeks and streams, a good fraction of which are suitable for this application. And, the simplicity and cost-effectiveness of building small hydro systems. It is also very regionally distributed. It helps establish the capacity for a more sophisticated renewable energy industry in the coming years.

    Protection of the public interest is critical to the fair sharing of benefits and ecological integrity, but moratoriums are the wrong way to go about it. In fact if the NDP forms the next government, a moratorium on clean power development may be a critical, confidence shattering mistake that they would regret very early on.

  • Okanagan Orchardist

    3 years ago

    Where have all the people gone?

    It would have been interesting at the time to find out where all those people from the northern regions of BC went that left jobs that were no longer there and businesses that were no longer profitable. Are they still jobless in BC or did they move to Fort McMurray (not a good idea now, I know)? Are they still a menace to the Liberal Party? Those numbers are meaningless unless those people are still in BC and are still ticked off at Campbell for making them move.

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