Harper and Co. are just plain stupid. The public see right through their law & order stick; their enviromental plans are mental; their tax reform plans are taxing; the gung-ho military adventure in Afghanistan is backfiring; they sold us out to the Americans with soft-wood, etc.

The public are moaning for the good old days under the Libs.; sure they are corrupt, but just about everything in Canada is! Look at the mega billion drug trade, the taint of corruption has spread everywhere, right up to the high offices of our political parties!

Real change > a military coup.

Rafe,

Good article - quite fair. I agree that most Canadians (especially East of Manitoba) don't like seeing themselves as Conservatives. Whereas, in many parts of the US and Western Canada - these values are seen as firm, fair, honest and accountable. Eastern Canadians are more Liberal - they see these values as punitive, rewarding the rich and intolerant.

I am keeping my fingers crossed on this one. I think the Dion would be diasterous for this country. He is out of touch with whats driving Canada these days - energy, commodities and free trade. He is really out of touch with Canada altogether, with exception for Unity and a rigid left-wing stance on the environment.

This is not the sort of guy we need running our country. A guy like Ignatieff would have been far better - even if he hasn't really even lived here. He is very knowledgeable and has had the chance to represent and observe Canada internationally.

In this country, we are best with a guy like Peter McKay or Frank McKenna. Fiscally conservative, socially moderate. This truly represents the centre - the middle ground from where most Canadians stand.

PS,

Laugh at me all you want, but I believe Alberta to be a far bigger threat to Unity than Quebec. Their anger has been partially subdued due to a Conservative victory - however, if Dion and the left Liberals come in and interfering with their energy, global ambitions, economy, etc. - watch out.

Unlike Quebec, who deep down know they can't do it without Canada - Alberta, knows they can. They have the money, the power, the tight connections with America and the resolve.

Knowing the Liberal Party as well as I do, I expected Dion to come in for a win. He will form a majority government, too.

Hang on a minute.

A key strength of the Liberals is their fraternity (as pointed out by Rafe) based on their national organization and cosmopolitan outlook.

A key weakness is their elitism. Insiders tightly control the organization. The Montreal Convention has endorsed constitutional amendments that strengthen party officials over elected parliamentarians.

The convention has rejected the proposal to have a direct vote by ordinary members.

The party will remain vulnerable to the rift between the 'professionals' and the grassroots. This will be reflected in the tendency to say and do different things.

I can see a series of minority governments (conservative and liberal) until one party turns itself into a truly democratic party (from an organizational perspective). That will be the natural ruling party of Canada.

It’s nice of Rafe to blow with the wind. But, there is a larger long-term view.

Cap:

Agree with you re: Quebec...I think as each day goes by they realize their separatiste' case gets weaker. How long that political ponzi scheme continues is anybody's guess.

Not sure I agree with you about Alberta...and with all due respect to Alberta, what do they have to offer except a limited resource the amount of which is depleted as each day goes by ?

BC , in my view , is the potential stand - alone power... for various reason I am sure you and others realize.

ALSO....The Federal Liberals will continue to stake claims in the Urban BC ridings,and bless us with more Hedy Fry one -trick -pony types...sort of like mini Quebec ridings. Then you will see more of these urban ridings split off into new ridings as they continually grow, and more potential Liberal MP's .

Always a pleasure to read Rafe's columns! You don't need to agree with everything he says to enjoy his search for understanding about the events in society. It is refreshing to hear an author declare he doesn't support either Liberal or Conservative party. Which means an analysis is less biased and more likely to contain accurate information. Thanks Rafe! Keep up the good work.

Poll-wise, Canadians are social-liberals two to one. A hard authoritarian -right party like the Harpocrits cannot gain favor with the majority of Canadians. The Libs as somone pointed out speak left yet govern from the center-right and thus gain the vote.

maestro:I have to agree with-

Then when the Oil Sands are just sand, and the rivers are just sludge and Alberta is a have not province that looks like Afghanistan, will they still be quite so arrogant and Conservative.

also-

Unfortunately this is rapidly becoming a "could have been" as the Soup Nazi and his crackers convert the once assets of British Columbian's into the jewels of corporate portfolios admired elsewhere.

Once again Capitalism forgets that first and foremost Albertan's identify themselves as Canadian's first Albertan's second .
There is no real movement for separation in Alberta with the exception of a few brain addled red necks who think they can go it alone on the strength of their bitumen reserves .
They resoundingly denied Ted Morton(Harpo's little buddy)the right wing, wing-nut for a ,very,good reason he is far too right on the political spectrum .
No Alberta is happy with steady Eddy .

The next election, I believe will reslut in another Conservative minority government. The Libs will have a leadership review and can Dion; then the race for next PM will be on. Who knows who the Libs leader will be ad=fter that? Ignatieff? Will he stick around or indeed take his 'walk in the snow' Will Rae still be sniffing around? Perhaps Gerald Kennedy will seek the leadership again because he will have had time to learn enough french.

The only thing that may mess up my predictions is the economy tanking soon and I think that is a real possiblity.

What say you?

As usual in these postings, only the capitalist parties are considered!
Rafe at least sees the need for a party that has Canada as its focal point, instead of more power to the elites.
And as usual the NDP is ignored!
We are still at the: " I'm allright Jack" stage in this country; a stage where voters feel happy as long as they can go to the Brick and mortgage their future to get a new large TV!
Maybe the sky indeed has to be falling before voters realize that there is more to life than "feeling good!"

Nope.The Liberal's will win a majoirity Government under Dion.
Why ? Because he listens to Canadian's and understands their needs .
As co-author of the Quebec as a nation fiat he will not allow Harpo to claim the unity card alone . A brilliant move on his part .
Harpo will have trouble hanging onto the seats that he does have .
Should the Parti Quebecois win the next election-which it looks like they will- Harpo will be all done in Quebec and Quebecers will return to the Grits in droves .
The only thing that will save Harpo's,considerable, ass is a Charest win and that looks more unlikely by the minute .

Very unlikely. The Liberals reward the loyal very loyally. They also really know how to win elections.

That is because they will not, ever, never form a majority government in a Federal Election. Their platform does not appeal to enough voters so they do not get elected. It is that simple but a fact lost on many of their supporters.

The next election will be pivitol for Canada:

-Do we want to remain a social-democratic country with strong financal, and international independence?

-Do we want to slash social programmes and let the Americans run our country, like they are now and generate more budget defecits?

That is the choice we face. Vote carefully.

Oh really Cappy!

Have you been asleep for a month? The US mid-term elections, along with virtually every other cheap and dishonest and downright criminal act of the Bush White House, from its election until the current date, is the exact opposite of those principles. The fact that pee wee Rambo fits so snugly into the camouflage coat George sold him is just another indication that neither he, not you, has a clue.

The next political party to rule Canada, will be the one that knows best in using illegal drug money.

It is the illegal drug trade that is fueling Canada's ecconomy and do not forget it.

I think the split in AB province is North/South and in a head to head battle - where second votes didn't count, either Dinning or Morton would have beaten Ed Stelmach in a two man race. The masters of the universe who run the province will have him toeing the party line or he'll be history in a matter of months.

My view.

In some ways the federal NDP in the west may gain from Dion's election. He's gonna poach green votes big time and in many 3 way races in the west the NDP is number two. Increasing the Liberal vote won't get them elected, but if the NDP works its people hard it may pick up a number of close seats from the conmen. But working man's right, the NDP won't form a government for a while - and that's too bad for the 80% of the people who get screwed either way when the Libs and the Conmen are in power.

Folks are just too susceptible to the lies Liberals and Conservatives pay their friends in the media to spin for them.

Get a grip Capitalism .
Your opinion is worth two thirds,of five eighths of phuque all .

You have to be shooting crack. They may win a minority, because Ontario and Quebec aren't conservative by nature - period. Dion is in touch with some Quebecers and the urban socialist - that is it. Watch him get decimated in the suburbs and rural canada. The Tories will continue to control each. His values reflect those of narrow-minded, arrogant, urban dwellers. Though, he himself if not arrogant. He is actually a pretty good guy (so it seems).

Alcabaides - typical of your what have you shown me lately mentality. The Republicans have controlled congress, the senate and the presidency for the greater portion of the last 30 years.

Americans voted against the war in Iraq - not for the Democrats. They voted against George Bush. This by no means indicates that they are not inherently a Conservative nation.....

More Cappy Bull shyte .
Reality is:
The gains in seats in the mid-term election resulted in the Republicans gaining control of both the House and the Senate in January 1995. Republicans had not held the majority in the House for forty years, since the 83rd Congress (elected in 1952) under Republican Speaker Joseph William Martin, Jr..

Large Republican gains were made in statehouses as well when the GOP picked up twelve governor seats and 472 legislative seats. In so doing, it took control of 20 state legislatures from the Democrats. Prior to this, Republican had not held the majority of governorships since 1972. In addition, this was the first time in 50 years that the GOP controlled a majority of state legislatures.
More wholly made up facts from Capitalism.
Sheesh! If you wanna debate on these boards at least use facts that are real and not made up or wishful thinking .
Work with that !

You still want to stick to your stupid statement that the Republican's have controlled the houses for the past thirty years ?
Better go have another drink .

Nope Harpo is all done but the cryin' .
Dion will flesh out a wholly realistic 'green' plan for Canada and find a way to make an exit strategy from Afghanistan .
He is talking of emulating the Marshall plan that was so successful after WW2.
Who even remembers what the idiot's five point plan was .
Whatever he fell short by a mile .

jimtan:

This'll come back to bite them in the ass.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20061203/libs_poll_061203/20061204?hub=Politics

This is a small sample across Canada, a 1,000 polled, but if its any indication, and if the Liberals hold these numbers and improve them, the Libs will get a strong minority government.

Ontario is 48% to 32% Con. If these numbers hold, 3/4's of the province will vote Liberal and thats alot of seats. Quebec's numbers are 67% approval. That means Dion's going to get the federalist vote. They should gain 10 seats or more if these numbers hold (mind you, if the survey was done mainly in Montreal and it was a small survey, the numbers could be less accurate).

Fact is, aside from our individual political bias, People in this country are tired of authoritarian elitist control freaks. This isn't Stephane Dion. But it is Harper.

These numbers should be sobering, particularly for the NDP and Cons, well, all of them. Is it a dead cat bounce? I can say with clear clarity that there is more to it than simple media exposure of a Lib convention. Dion was everyones second choice and for some, the first. He was my second choice... meaning can Canadian's comprimise? Dion was born into and from it.

People underestimate Dion's leadership but what people forget, is that there were 5 bonifide leadership candidates standing in that convention. Mabye even 6. Do the Cons have this kind of depth? Unity?

How much did Garth Turners turfing hurt the Cons? Guns at our borders, new jails and hang 'em high mentality, social cuts to spending, questionable fiscal policy that is yet to come to light with numbers, dead Canadian soldiers, on that note, what compitent leader would put 2200 soldiers in a region where 8,000 U.S. soldiers took 300 casualties since 2002, and not expect body bags? Stephen Harper. Thats who. The Con record isn't stellar and power shifts not so much by who's better out there, but who's worse.

I'll go with the numbers indicating a landslide in Ontario and gains in Quebec and call a strong Lib minority government in 2007 in a heartbeat based on what I've seen so far.

Capitalism/Maybelle writes:

And this proves precisely what?

That the US has become the most unequal, divisive, unfair, inequitable, racist and downright comprehensive failure of a powerful empire where the average executive compensation is now more than 300 times that of the average industrial wage and where real equality isn't even a dream anymore. That the Bush White House has added to this while being responsible for more deaths than Saddam Hussein and a bigger debt than the total debt of every president in history into the balance.
Oh and there are those almost 3000 soldiers dead soldiers too.

Now, what were you saying about America?

How do you have the courage to even post here anymore?

the Brain-
Have you read Chantal Hebert today?
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1165187408736&call_pageid=970599109774&col=Columnist969907622983

Alcibiades:

I don't know that it proves anything other than the fact that your statement that Americans aren't conservative (by and large) because the Democrats had one positive election is foolish.

'

Do you have a job? I thought I was bad. At least this is the only place I waste my time.

Everytime I come here, you are spouting off - on every topic too. I just stick to things I know.

I think you've taken the most foolish tyee visitor from Gavin West - who seems to have settled down.

Cappy:
Perhaps you should consider trying to learn to write fiction. In novels and short stories you can use any "facts" you choose. Indeed maybe science fiction or fantasy would suit you the best. In those genre you can invent whole realities out of whole cloth.

I think the Harp isn't sayin' much because he's starting to sweat. Nobody likes him, he's not a likeable person. His agenda is purely ideologically driven in denial of the real world and real world issues.

He failed to set a roadside bomb for the Liberals' Convention with his word games about nations and was forced to watch a Liberal love in unfold with the rapt attention of Canadians. Much to his chagrin this time there wasn't any "how many knives fit into one back" contests like when the Cons get together. Even David Orchard was there with no knives sticking out of his back. I'm sure he prefers dealing with Stephane rather than Stephen and Peter.

Many of his MPs might not hold their seat because their constituents haven't heard any of them say anything except for the chosen idiots, Toews, Flaherty, "Cryin' in Gumboots" Mckay and that old protector of Canadians - Doris, oops, Stockwell Day. Plus of course the annoited knob himself, Stephen (with no "a" and no "e" at the end) Canada's version of Commander Codpiece. The average Con will have to promise to go back to Ottawa and stay shut up, just like this time, I guess. Sounds like a winner slogan to me.

Does anyone think that the BC king of sleaze David Emerson would find the cojones to run for re-election as anything in Kingsway - maybe he could run as a Green this time - having learned at Rona's knee about such issues? Probably time for that piggie to change troughs, take advantage of the fire sale of public assets in BC before they are all gone.

I know you're talking about federal elections, but how does this voting record jibe with your years with the Social Credit party? And does it make any sense whatsoever that a leader of a party 30 years ago should keep you away forever? It shows you don't think, you just react. Which is fine, but you give the impression in your columns that you think things through.

I think Dion is a horrible choice. He makes Steven Harper look like a firebrand. Like it or not, personality plays a big role in politics. How is he going to get his message across to the typical apolitical Canuck?

Yayy LIEberals!

I really hope you are right Rafe!

I also hope that the LIEberals sweep-in with a big majority from the maritimes, ontario, bits of quebec and chunks of the big western cities, but none of the 'hinterland' or 'resource towns'.

This way Dionne will be either responsible for the break-up of the country, or finnally have to recognize where the $$$ comes from (hint it is not the cities).

He is reviled in Quebec (more than Cretien) and will only piss off Alberta and BC energy interests with another 'national energy program' in drag or some such rubbish.

This bodes well for the separatist (or at least more exercise of provincial powers) movement(s) within the canada. This election may be finnnaly about the end?

Sure Emerson will run for re-election; he promised the voters could decide on his actions at the next election!

Right!

Watch as Emerson will abandon ship and get appointed to some Board of Directors or take his pension and piss off!

If he does run, the electorate (all parties) should insist that hee would sign a 'no crossing the floor or changing party(s) contract!

He is my choice for the Royal Cdn Air Farces CHICKEN CANNON Target of the year! (No that there are no others to choose from!)

Murdock:
Stephane isn't one of the quints!

freebear:re:Emerson

If he isn't the target, how's about he could be chopped up and used as part of the ammunition (coated in BBQ sauce, special for pork). He would be good at crossing the stage on the way to the target.

Oh Cappy, I wouldn't jump to any conclusions about that. There are quite a few of us around who are more than willing to take a bite out of you anytime you post nonsense. Many of us are self-employed and do this along with a lot of other work at the same time. Pretty easy when the biggest intellect we have to parry is yours.

Where've you been lately? Vegas? You seem a little testy this afternoon, were the tables unkind?

Hi Rafe

Well said, as usual.
Another reason the "new" Conservatives will loose against Dion and the Liberals is Harper's major liability, i.e., his fellow traveller George W. Bush. The ideologically driven neo-con/Likudist/"Christian" fundamentalist alliance in America is crumbling. Canadians have seen the wretched mess the Bushites et al. have made of the U.S., witnessed their slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and complicity in the murder of thousands of Lebanese and Palestinians. The vast majority of Canadians want to distance themselves from the Bush way which Harper (known as HarBush) is intent on emulating. For whatever reasons, Harper does not understand this country any more than he understands the rest of the world.

Howdy Gavin, I wondered where you wandered off to. Alci is cutting into your turf, oh...oh.

StraightShooter:

The Bu$hCo thugs aren't very good at the treatment of America either, like New Orleans, minorities (warehouse them in jails, don't need housing or jobs)- only a small entititled class is served by Bu$hCo and it ain't our kind.

The rats are starting to abandon ship in all directions, Rumsfeld one day, Bolton the next - I'm waiting for Lieberman to actually see himself in the mirror while shaving and slit his own throat in disgust.

Gate's nomination hearings start tomorrow, most people think he'll get through. I think he is Rumsfeld in slicker packaging and probably Darth Cheney's personal pick to replace the doddering Rummy One. He's been dishonest in the past concerning Iran/Contra and is well known to believe intelligience is something you concoct - kinda like the story of this administration and a root cause of many major snafus.

Notice how Capitalism skates right on by the facts to spout even more drivel .
Who gives a rats ass about the neo-cons they are deader than a door nail everywhere in Canada .
No Brain that was no dead cat bounce that was Canadians reacting with glee to the fact that their favourite party is whole and clean again and they are safe to vote for after the insane ideology of the Harpocrats .
I predict the neo's will get less than 60,seats in total in the next election.
Count on it .

Glad to see you too rkewen, been missing your witty repartee ‘round here.

Couple of interesting - and quite funny Opeds in the New York Times in the last few days. If you missed them let me know and I'll send you copies.

Whatever has happened to our dear leader - the one you call the soup nazi - he seems to be awfully quiet of late? I've been wondering what he and the former finance minister are cooking up now that Gary isn't flying friendly with Harmony any more.

DO you think el Gordo might be thinking of a Mexican vacation this year? I was thinking Oaxaca would be a nice place for him to spend some interesting time. And Maui may still be a bit hot for him.

hannibal
Sure hope you're right dude. I have some questions though. See Chantal's column.

Also, the Liberal guys in Dion's camp from BC look awfully familiar to me and there's still a kind of smell to many of them - to my nose anyway.

Quite right, Hannibal, wrong term for climbing from the bottom. And they have yet to top. :-)

G West, I read the article. But Chantal isn't saying anything definitive. The jest I get is that she simply does not know what will happen next.

Allow me to enlighten on her subject. Are Quebec separatists going to vote anything other than Bloc? NOPE! Will the Federalists vote for the Cons? A western separatist from Alta? Or will they vote for Dion, a staunch federalist from Quebec... duh, geez, I wonder...

Dion the rat, Dion the SOB... but its THEIR rat and SOB. They sure won't support a war mongerin' western separatist oil burner like Harper. Again, it comes down to the lesser of two evils.

Harper only has three cards left to play, G, and if you aren't nodding your head, my opinion of you're intellect will likely begin to free fall.

- fiscal imbalance i.e. cash bribe.
- buddy up with the NDP on the environment.
- accountability act.

On all three fronts, they will lose. Dion can counter any bribe Harper might have and bribes don't go over well. Quebec will take the money, sure, but they won't support the Cons afterwards. They are too sophisticated.
If the NDP buddies up with the Cons, it won't make much difference. The NDP amendments are quite simply, to weak to begin with. For what its worth, you might want to start reading in back room deals between these two. How does that suit you? And unless the accountability act is put in written form beyond a lowly draft, it won't much for mileage either.

Naw, the Cons goose is cooked and if the NDP supports them and simply bashes the Libs and leaves the Cons alone... again... they will lose seats. You can bet on it.

The brainYup, I agree up until

Ah, shades of '88 as far as the likely role the NDP will play in the next election, but didn't you mean the Cons will lose seats anyway no matter what the NDP does?

Yes, Brain I concur wholeheartedly with your assessment of the situation .
That Dion is still a Quebecer and hence their SOB speaks volumes .
I loved that he is co-author of Harpo's silly nation fiat for Quebec taking the unity card out of Harpo's hands .
Duceppe has already read Harpo the riot act and said he will accept no less than 2.96,billion per anum in extra equalization payments .Or NO support .
Dion is a ,really,great choice for this party at this time in our history .
He is amazingly bright and will eviscerate Harpo in any debate-Harpo guts all over the podium .
For this to work for Harpo ,Charest will have to win the next Quebec election and at this point that seems unlikely to happen as Boisclair is extremely popular.
Chantel also predicted an Ignatieff win .
Sometimes she gets it wrong. Not often but.....

Sorry, I just understood your meaning...I think...that the NDP itself will lose seats. They did go down to 14% in a recent poll.

The other reminder of '88 is the same kind of non discussion of the NAU as was true of the FTA. If it hadn't been for David Orchard we would never have known a thing.

It was Quebec and Alberta that gave Mulroney his majority.

This time I don't think the Cons get Quebec.

brain
That's not what Chantal's saying, in my view. Of course she's not saying anything definite - it's an opinion piece.

What she is saying and I suspect it's true, is that Stephane Dion is damaged goods in Quebec, period. The one thing you can count on from Quebec voters is that they'll vote their self-interest, every time. And from a self-interest point of view the biggest deal in Quebec is addressing the fiscal imbalance. Harper is going to have to pay big time for those votes though and Dion hasn't got the reins so there's bugger all he can do about it. Harper is going to try and arrange for an election as soon as possible and hopefully before Charest has to go to the people so he can use Charest's organizing people exactly the way he did in January.

Ignatieff was a different matter and he held broad Quebec support till the end. If Bob Rae had had any sense he’d have gone to Ignatieff before the third ballot and Dion wouldn’t have won. Then there would be a chance of a Liberal government in April or whatever – now there isn’t. It makes me sad, but that’s my reading of the entrails. For the moment at least. Flaherty is going to deliver some tax relief for middle class Canadians – guys like cappy and working man and elliot and neocon and Ronny and because they are too stupid to know what is in their own best interests they will vote for pee wee in their hundreds and thousands and this poor country will slip a little further below the waves.

I hope and pray I’m wrong and I’ll do the best I can to stop it but sometimes, as Forrest Gump says –stupid is as stupid does.

If the election doesn't come soon you can expect some kind of Mulroney-like deal from Harper even if he's dealing with a PQ government and, as I said above, Quebecers vote for their pocket books.

Quebecers must be laughing at the rest of Canada because pee wee is paying most of the freight for the childcare program the rest of the country dreams of having - even in Alberta.

What is ,really,funny is that Dear Leader sent out the storm troopers,including Jason ,Fat boy Kenney to prop up Ober Fuhrer Ted Morton in the Alberta election .
Freaked out Albertan's so bad they arrived en masse to vote against the facist .

Harper is probably listening to his own Quebec advisers and discounting the appeal of the new Liberal leader. That would be short-sighted. Under Dion, the Liberals have given themselves a new life in Quebec and new options for the coming election campaign. The Conservatives are about to discover what Rae and Ignatieff took too long to realize: Stéphane Dion is a dangerous opponent.

Sure hope you're right hannibal - I've certainly had enough of pee wee.

Good column Rafe but it's a bit early. What happens will depend upon Dion. Can he galvanize the country? In Quebec, can he overcome the Liberal record? I don't know him well enough to predict how he's going to react under pressure. He's such an unknown quantity.

I hope The Tyee never, ever hires any of you people as political commentators. For gawd sakes, get a life or two. Get some experience before you start spouting off about things you have never experienced. Do everybody a favour, join the army, serve in Afghanistan, come back alive and then maybe, just maybe, you'll get someone to listen to you. And lastly, get a job!!

Tonight, Rex Murphy of CBC had some amazing things to say. He described Dion as “decent’, and he heaped accolades on that quality.

Then, he laid the ghost of Chretien’s era to rest. Is it really over?

For Okanagan Orchardist,

Don't worry about it. They just like to listen to themselves think.

And you know where you can put that apple tree "orchardist".

Give us a list of your wars and credentials, for the right to your wingnut opinions. You do that, I'll give ya mine. Otherwise stfu.

This here is called "democracy", in case you have a problem with that. Wellll, at least what passes for it in this standing on its hands with its head up its butt society.

Quite right. And it was no foolish move for Dion to be talking to the man. He's liked.

Lets see... you've just run down every commentator on this thread, while offering no positive input of your own. Hypocrite. You remind me of a stereotypical labelling blowhard who belittle's everyone else to build yourself up. Does that about sum it up, dip shit?

It's so tiresome to hear the same old crap about Albertans being more conservative. Number one, a significant portion of Albertans are transplanted Easterners. Two, Albertans will step up to receive hand-outs just as eagerly as any other Canadian, didn't hear of too many rejecting their welfare Ralph bucks, and those farmers aren't shy about getting bail-outs. Alberta's politics are really about us-and-them, and have been since the CPR started auctioning land and charging exorbitant freight rates. The loudmouth right we hear all the time represent a small number of true-believers who are mostly found in and around Calgary. Calgary is a city that is no more righteous than Toronto, Ottawa or Vancouver when it comes to extracting wealth that doesn't belong to it, we just happened not to draw a dividing line somewhere around Red Deer. It's not surprising that Calgary's office towers are filled with numerous Bay Street types.
The childish, petulant notion that the East is keeping them down is nonsense that is repeated ad-nauseum. Huge amounts of wealth have passed through the hands of Albertans in the last fifty years, only a small fraction went to Ottawa in taxes that weren't returned, and what do they have to show for it? A province with infrastructure only marginally better than other provinces, and an economy still completely dominated by oil companies.
It isn't Ontarios fault that most of the wealth has flowed out to Yankee and British oil companies, or that the businessmen running the industry have lacked the creativity or will to bankroll entrepreneurs in other areas. The entire Western side of this country suffers from the same problem.
One last thing. To call Harper a Westerner is a joke. He's an Upper Canadian who came to Calgary and got the 'keep your hands off my stack' religion that drives Alberta politics, its got nothing to do with Conservatism.

Just to clarify. This was a response to Capitalism's much earlier post.

G West:
Don't be fooled by the media hype about Dion in Quebec. He's respected far more than you know... except among separatists. What we have in Quebec's media is a full on assault on federalism in most papers. Its how they lean.

When students go to school, they are told by their social studies teachers that Quebec "simply has no choice but to separate." The brain washing begins early. They've had 3 generations worth of it now, perhaps even 4 generations, as Rafe has pointed out.

By the way, Rafe, an excellent summation of history! :-)

It likely began with Quebecs given control over their own education. In some ways, their own history has been rewritten to suit a separatist agenda, while being combined with the teachings that the rest of Canada's history books have got it wrong.

Today's youth are being taught that Duplessis is their "national" hero, a saint for Quebec. Part of the reason why, is that Duplessis replaced one of the most, if not thee most corrupt provincial governments in history. They made the Gomery Lib backbenchers look like what they stole was mere candy. More than 30 million in the pre depression era was alot of hay.
But the seniors knew better than to think of this man as a hero. They remember a staunch, rurally minded Catholic values or else, leading to 10 plus kids in every family, and pure povety as a result. It was onions for supper, and onions for breakfast.

But the seniors are dying off, the history books are being distorted, separatist views are being taught and enforced in schools, and I doubt that Quebec will stay in Canada as a result by the end of the next decade. In fact, I'll give this country less than 10 years.

Nevertheless, Quebec has its anglophones and its natives, and its immigrants, and its Quebecquois taht see's Canada from a different perspective than what we see today. Right now, its about 50/50. Half of them of federalists and like I say, who are they going to vote for? Warmongering oil burners, or their own? Forget the media hype, G. They've been out to lunch all along with Dion. And lets not forget. This guy is known as being principled and gutsy. He's liked far more than people realize in Quebec. The polls indicate it. 67% thought the Libs elected the right leader. That percentage is sobering.

cicoroiii:
I could not agree with you more. Its all propaganda in Alberta as well. And whats changing the perception, ever so slowly? Try the internet! The Tyee rocks!!

Nana:
Quite right. The Cons popular vote went from 26% to 15% in Quebec and falling like a rock. The Cons will be lucky if they get 5 seats.

But things can change. The Cons will try a bribe. You know, good ol' fiscal imbalance. And it still get them nowhere! Quebec will take the money of course, and laugh at Harper once the cheque's cashed. The Cons are done like burnt dinner in Quebec.

Capitalism:

"Continue" to control the suburbs?

Toronto: a couple of seats on the fringes, including now-expelled Turner.

Montreal: zero

Vancouver: none of the inner suburbs, outer suburbs split with NDP and Liberals.

If you would take you binoculars off the US, you would see that Canada does not have the urban vs. suburban political split that the US does. They are essentially the same political constituency, and go overwhelmingly to the Liberals and NDP, except in Alberta and Quebec.

The Cons are welcome to keep the rural areas, those are their natural constituency.

Dion will not do any better in Quebec and the Bloc will sweep one more time. The Quebec sovereignists are absolutely delighted. The Libs could not even run any part of their convention in French, and this, in Montreal. Do you think this went unnoticed in Quebec? As dysfunctional as it can possibly get...

The bottom line is that Dion does not represent mainstream Canadians. The fact that he is getting lukewarm reception from visitors to this site validates this.

He is a single issue candidate (well two) - the environment and unity. He comes from the left (not the centre) and is entirely out of touch with Canada's economic drivers.

You all can tell me I'm wrong all you want. Chretien won 3 terms because there was no formidable opposition and people liked his record of fiscal responsibility. People liked that he/Martin "slayed" the defecits.

People in this country generally support balanced budgets/tax relief - but like to feel as if we have good social programs too.

This is anything but a foregone conclusion. Dion is a weak leader and this will be exposed in good time. He may do ok in Quebec, but his english skills are aweful. Harper and Layton will destroy him in the campaign. This country is in fact, is over 3/4 english speaking.

The Liberals have had tons of exposure around this convention - and a lot of chest thumping. They have no money to campaign on and their party is really in shambles. The Conservatives have a war chest, and will be prepared.

For the Liberals to have any success, they will have to unite - we'll see if this is possible. They have moved from the centre-right to the centre-left. Much of their support came from the Martinites. These people appear to be gone and replaced with academics and idealogues. Yet, much of their party will not agree with Dion's stance.

Dion's best asset is that he has not dirt against him. Rae ran Ontario into the ground as Premier (even though he blames his NDP caucus), Ignatieff hasn't lived in Canada for 25 years and supported the Iraq war, who the heck is Gerard Kennedy. He tries to claim he is a Westerner because once upon a time he started a food bank in Edmonton. Great guy I'm sure - but let's be realistic here. He is as Toronto as they come.

I predict the Tories will hold onto another Minority situation. In the meantime, they better hope that this Afghanistan situation difuses itself.

Yogurt:

I count the inner suburbs as cities - outside of New West - the Conservatives are holding their ground.

Montreal is a little different.

Toronto - Belleville, Oshawa, Aurora, Barrie, etc. etc. - all suburbs controlled by the Tories.

Cappy.

How do you explain London? Poor third there for the neocons as I recall...and that was just the other day. And Stevo has to be a little worried about Elizabeth May too. His 'green' quotient is looking kinda brown. Fact is, I don’t think you CAN count.

You clearly don't know enough about economics to understand the situation in Ontario WHEN Rae came to power either. Not that I'm interested, just pointing out your errors. Ignatieff made some minor tactical mistakes in the convention - he actually carried more of his pre-convention support intact than any other candidate - or he'd be the leader today. I don't know what Dion will do but I think gaulois understands Quebec pretty well and I agree with his analysis of the Bloc's prospects.

The Liberals are trying to occupy the centre and that's not hard because Stevo has moved to the neocon right. Most Canadians aren't like you cappy, they are motivated by things other than self-interest and the pleasure principle and they're learning about pee wee's pathology in a hurry. The real problem is the bought and paid for press. At the moment it's having a love in with Dion. If the election comes before the Cons make their offer to the provinces on fiscal imbalance it's going to be interesting but anyone who says they know at this stage what the result will be should be in Vegas - they'll do better there, and the drinks are cheaper!

More Cappy crap .
Jeesus Christ why don't you read a friggin' newspaper once in awhile ?
Your assessment is what the neo-con-Nazi's party line is .
All those soft seats are gone like the wind in the next election.
Harpocrats will be lucky to get 50,seats nationwide .
Did you not notice that the Liberal's jumped 6 per centage points on the Nazi's ?
Of course not. That is bad news for the turds .
Your view of politics makes me laugh .
Same way the Republican's have dominated both house's for 30,years, hunh .
The farmer took another load away and I can tell by the smell it ain't hay .
Grow up 'ya stiff .

G. The gateway to Liberal success in Quebec is through Charest .
If he loses and the PQ returns to power we will have a whole new scenario with all the soft nationalists going over to the Liberal's as the best defender of Quebec and what it stands for in the Canadian nation .
Gaulois's assessment is too pat by far .
There are far too many scenario's too contemplate .
The Bloc will do well as they alway's do .
Don't forget they lost 10,seats to the Nazi's in the last election and all those seats are in play at the moment .
Harpo's little concession to Quebec got him zero in the polls. Nobody cared .
Dion is the co-author of that and Quebeecers understand this also .

cappy w/o the thinking cap:

Inner suburbs like Barrie, eh? Let's see, we know Cappy can't read with comprehension, has no aquaintance with facts and now we learn he can't read a map either. Obviously the educational system has failed where ever you went to school.

Cappy, maybe you can help me out - Thunder Bay (Used to be Port Arthur and Fort William, in case you hadn't heard about the change - it's a fact), is Thunder Bay a suburb of Winnipeg or ?.

I can't decide if my village is a suburb of Kelowna or Calgary, oops, Kelowna is probably a suburb of Vancouver (which may just be suburban Seattle). Maybe I'll enroll if you offer a class in geography.

Cappy the fact is that at least 3/4 of Canadians are considered urban residents, surprisingly (to me) a higher proportion than in the banana republic to the South - where right wing whack-jobs have been up until recently exploiting the rural hicks with great success. This is why in forming his cabinet PeeWee the Pudgey One had to go to the unelected, elected under false colors or way out in the burbs to have any representation from Canada's three largest cities. That really helped erase the democratic deficit, don't you think?

Too funny rkewen.
I think Cappy should avail himself of some night classes in geography,social science et cetera .

But they didn't sweep.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/story/2006/01/23/que_results_060123.html

51 BQ
13 Libs
10 Cons
1 Ind

Popular vote dropped from 48.9% to 42.2% for the Bloc from 2004 to 2006. I suggest that the Bloc will pick up popular vote in the mid 40's in %. Since the Cons have dropped from 26% to 15% and falling due to Quebecs good long ugly look at Harper, the rest of the federalist popular vote will go Liberal and Green. I see the Libs with 20 seats in Quebec, but its hard to predict until I've reviewed the candidates running.

Yes and no. They've certainly made inroads in labelling Dion as a rat, however true or not. They are most certainly the most diametrically opposed with Dion. But I'm not so sure they wanted Dion. Strategically, they would have probably preferred anyone but Dion. Think about it. Bob Rae over Dion? Nope. Kennedy? Nope. Iggy? I personally doubt it. Ken Dryden? He would have been the worst case scenario... to bad he didn't have a chance.

This statement utterly confuses me. How do you expect Unilingual English Canada to particpate in an all French convention? This part makes absolutely no sense to me, whatsoever. I doubt if this statement would also make any common sense in Quebec.

Re: correction. My Nopes are yes's. Wups...

Absolutely Brain .
The lesson is in London where the'Greens' bled a ton of votes from the neo's .
Cappy is too dumb to see that .
Nationwide the Liberal's have the approval of 55% of Canadians and their support in Ontario is at 48 % .

Quebec is still the key puzzle-piece. Harper is caught in a cleft stick. If he goes now he faces a worked up Liberal party on the rebound from a media saturated event, but, he may be able to get close to what he needs out of Quebec for the next three months with a fiscal imbalance pay-off - as long as Charest is still in power.

If he waits till after the Prov election in Quebec (this summer say) then his organizational base will disappear if Charest loses. The problem then is the Liberals' - can they rebuild the fractured party structure in the province quickly enough to capture the same federalist ridings and a few swing ones that went to Harper last time? Can't see the Bloc dropping below 40 seats though.

I know enough about economics. Though, I don't know much about Bob Rae. Perception is reality, and the Ontarians truly believe that Rae and the NDP wrecked their economy. Whether it is true or not, I don't know. I wasn't saying he did - I merely said he had baggage - which is the truth - right or wrong.

I recognize this. I said, Canadians (especially in Quebec and Ontario) don't like to think of themselves as Conservatives. Nor, do they like to think of themselves as socialists. They like to think of themselves as socially conscious, yet opportunistic. If there was a spectrum - 0 - 100. 0 being the far left, 100 being the far right - I'd say i was at 80. Clearly right of centre. I do not represent the mainstream anymore than Dion does.

Yes - and for once I agree with Gavin. Right now, the media has a love on for Dion. Nobody knows him, but he is a nice guy and a fresh perspective. Trust me though, the Liberals don't even have a platform. There will be plenty of time to disect Dion and a lot of people aren't going to like what they see. This polling is merely a point in time. It is very possible that the Liberals regain power. However, I remember the BC Liberals trailing the NDP by 10-12% at one point. The Conservatives as the governing party have chartered a different course than the Liberals. They have been heavily criticized by some, praised by others. Let's wait until the next budget and the platforms. Don't get caught up in today's numbers.

Baloney, we've dealt with you economic incompetence before Cappy. Ontario was going into a deep recession when Rae won the election, he used classical economics to try and reduce the impact of that recession on the people who tended to be worst hit and he got no thanks from the masters of the universe in business and the media who were determined to hang the blame on him. Ontario is a small c conservative place - except for the GTA. You wouldn't know the truth if it showed up beside you at the craps table.

The facts and what people ‘believe’ are only incidentally connected.

I'm no Rae fan, but what you posted was wrong - he did not wreck the economy. Period.

I listened to Dion on la SRC "Maisonneuve en ville" broadcast this morning across the country. Although I *really* could not stand this guy in the past, I must say he came across quite OK this morning with what I have heard. He must have taken some lessons on how not to irritate Québécois. He definitely brings "content" to issues and will challenge the Conservatives on all their weak spots, and they have plenty as we all know. I think the Greens and the NDPs have better watched this guy very carefully. Still early to tell the outcome in Quebec. Dion has a lot of bridges to rebuild with le Québécois moyen.

Like a stopped clock Cappy, you're bound to be right, for a moment, at least twice a day.

Gavin - good analysis on Quebec. I think you agree that their recent pop has more to do with their recent media saturated convention. Those things are always inspirational and feel good.

You don't ever hear a negative thing there. I don't put much stock in it.

Though, I do agree with Rafe and some people. The Liberals have a good shot at regaining power. They are generally the party of favour in Central Canada.

The Afghanistan mission and the environment seem to be Harper's achilies heal. Politically, he should have postponed his environmental plan - much like the Liberals did for 15 years. He couldn't win. It is too easy to paint Conservatives as anti-environment.

Though, the Conservatives have a base of around 27-30% of the population. This is a core base - very similar to the Liberals. The problem is getting the 25% of voters not aligned with any party. These people tend to vote Liberal, because of the Polar views of the NDP and Conservatives.

The 50-60 seats that the Alci predicts is a joke. They'll get 90 at a minimum. I predict we will see a series of minority governments until either Harper proves to Canadians that his party is a moderate, responsible party - or they mess up so bad (which they haven't done yet) that people turf them entirely in favour of the Liberals.

Gavin,

Maybe I am a terrible writer, but I didn't say Rae wrecked the economy. If he didn't, then he didn't. I do a fair bit of business in Ontario. Whether it is right or wrong, the PERCEPTION is that Rae destroyed the economy.

END

Yes - you are right. Conservatives did pretty well in Ontario, outside of the GTA. Though, the GTA has roughly 7M of the 14M Ontario residents.

Ottawa is also a very Liberal town - with all the government workers.

I am not sure what we are disagreeing on??

NAh Nah Nagh Nah!
(Fingers firmly planted in my ears so I hear no evil)
I am gonna vote Liberal
federally
Anything else
provincially

Your joking right ? Twenty to thirty per cent support for the neo-Nazi's .
One in 4,Canadians supported these idiot's in the last election how in the hell does that add up to 30 % ?
Got news for 'ya Harpo is gonna lose seats in Alberta as well as the rest of the nation .
All seven Newfoundland seats will go Liberal as Harpo has done dick all about the fallow field legislation and the fiscal imbalance . Danny Williams hates Harpos stinking guts as well .

You know Cap why don't you just phuque off and become a yankee . I am sure you'd be a lot happier as you haven't a clue what it is to be a true Canadian .
NFM

Well Cappy, this is what you wrote:

which I challenged and you come back with this:

That's not a writing problem, in my view, it's a brain cramp.

You haven't got a clue about economics, the history of politics or a perception of how fatally problematic citizen ignorance has been for the good of this country. You're a walking advertisement for the bankruptcy of the status quo.

Quotable quotes from the master of the one-liners. ROTFLMAO G. Too funny .

Capitalism is correct on one point: "For the Liberals to have any success, they will have to unite - we'll see if this is possible. They have moved from the centre-right to the centre-left."

That is exactly why I'll be voting Liberal in the next election. Why throw my vote away on an NDP or Green candidate when I can pick the party closest to my ideology that can win. Wonder why North and West Van went to the Liberals? You think it might be because the Conservatives are moving farther from the center? The voting power in this country is mostly in the cities and suburbs and they overwhelmingly want gun control and could care less if two guys get married. The next election will be about issues, not personality, and that is why Dion was the perfect choice.

Chris H
park your vote wherever you want, but the issues that drive the next election are going to be controlled by pee wee Rambo and they won't be the ones you've highlighted.

They'll be about tax cuts and provincial powers and special interest groups that the prime minister has already got nicely organized in his calendar.

Why do you think he's getting the vote on whether or not he'll look at gay marriage again right now? He wants it out of the way.

Steve is planning to buy his way into power with our money.

Jesus Christ ! Gee, what did you do take a Cycnical pill this morning .
Cheer up for rice cakes .
Stupid Flaherty and his Cirque De Soleil budgets are impressing no one .
The Nazi's has of yet to put together a comprehensive'Green' plan .
The war in Afghanistan rages on and 120,Van Doos(Quebeckers) are going to be in theatre at the end of the week .
Nope this is all about Liberal vision and the ability to articulate same .
Cheer up !

has should read have as. D'oh .

Canadians overwhelmingly support Dion 55%.
That should be enough to translate into a majority .
Canadian's cannot be bribed with their own money .

Another thing Herr Harpo sent his storm troopers to Alberta to prop up Ober Fuhrer Ted Morton. Including Jason,Fat Boy Virgin, Kenney .
Albertan's were so freaked out by a possible Morton win they came out en masse to make sure that didn't happen in the middle of a cold snap and blizzard.
What does that tell 'ya ?

hannibal
You know where I stand. It's the same place I've been standing since before pee wee moved into 24 Sussex. There's a tendency though, around here at least, to think that everybody who supports Stevo is a wingnut like Ron and Cappy.

A lot of people don't think - or if they do think, not very deeply, I'm gonna post something I wrote right after the election last January at the other place so you'll get where I'm coming from.

May take me a while to find it, but it's coming.

We need to exercise an excess of caution and diligence right now because I’m pretty nearly positive there's going to be an election before another Christmas comes around and I want to do everything I can to make sure everyone knows what's at stake.

Cynic, or realist? Or just careful? You decide.

The latest polls give the Liberals 37, Conservative 31 and NDP 14.

Dion was right when he said that he will let Harper self destruct.

Never count the Liberals out. They really know how to win elections.

well here we go again....three white guys heading up federal parties. i'm hoping that the Greeens will have an impact and really push environmental issues to the forefront.
also, are these white guys really going to talk and be concerned about the devasting effects of the cuts to programs for womem. sure didn't hear much about programs for women in the last election.

The sponsorship scandal was basically a hidden tax to keep the Conservatives out of power - and it was worth it. The Canada we have now is not the Canada for the people - it's Canada for a small percentage of people who don't give a crap about the rest.

Oh,I know G.
We pretty well cover the same piece of real estate as far as that goes .
It just depresses me when we get into an argument with Cap or Ron or Clueless .
They are just so obtuse .
Agree we are heading for another election cycle sooner rather than later and I am lining up all the horses guns and money I can find to ensure a Liberal victory .
Did you see that stupid bastard Ezra Levant spouting off about Dion's French passport .
What a nit wit .
They are terrified of Dion and what he represents to almost all Canadian's .

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a campaign not very different from the kind of thing Karl Rove specializes in - I think the consultants are already here as a matter of fact.

And with the supine media we have in this country - even the CBC is into cheerleading - this is not going to be a slamdunk for anyone.
Levant is typical.

hannibal: They are terrified of Dion and what he represents to almost all Canadians.

And Harper just keeps churning along with the NCC Republican playbook. Today, its axe the wheatboard.

Yea, I like the apostrophe .
S&GP

Really? Hadn't caught that brain - I knew it was a possibility but, are they taking over the elected board or just emasculating the whole thing?

Better watch that 'its' - you'll run afoul of the Spelling & Grammar Police

Yea,Chucky Strahl fired the head of the Wheat board in a letter .
Not clear whether or not he even has the power to do so as they are not beholden to Parliament .