My big question of the night.. Will any of the TV networks actually call it for the ReformaTories before the polls actually close?

I believe, by law, BC is to be blacked out as far as election results from elsewhere in Canada are concerned, until BC polling places close.

So,in BC, we should avoid posting specific early results from other provinces, so as not to jeopardize The Tyee's standing with the law!

However, if any Tyee commenters can locate blogs/ sites that are voluntarily posting early results, I for one, and I'm sure many others too, would appreciate being shown links that we can check out ourselves to view results!

As of now, I don't know what sites might be providing such info. One thought that popped to mind is captainsquartersblog.com. "Captain Ed" was the blogger in the US who was posting explosive Gomery testimony from Mr. Brault and others, when it was banned in Canada. Maybe he's our man tonight!

...Apparently, many others are having the same thought about Captain Ed, 'cause my computer keeps timing out as I unsuccessfully try to access his site!#*%@#.

Any other ideas, anyone?

Bobb999---- C.B.C. ELECTION COUVERAGE STARTS AT 6.30 PM other networks 7 pm, Election Canada also at 7pm

All of us non-BC-residing Tyee fans should beware....

http://www.robhyndman.com/2006/01/22/election-day-blogging/

Section 329 of the Canada Elections Act:

"No person shall transmit the result or purported result of the vote in an electoral district to the public in another electoral district before the close of all of the polling stations in that other electoral district."

And the results are in... And you'll never believe who's winning...

The St. Louis Blues are up 1-0 at the end of the first period.

I ain't getting The Tyee in trouble...

re the question as to whether the media has done it's job. As far as the main stream- not at all! Selective memory/story lines, careful editing of letters to the editor, irresponsible and unscientific polls, and the list goes on. Thanks to the Tyee for a chance to vent, even with the r.e. elements out there. We all know what would happen if unsubstantiated, ignorant posts were placed on the con sites. Silly me, that's their stock in trade. Thanks again- I look forward to tonight.

Please God, let it be a minority...

Did the SC not rule on this election result transmission garbage a year ago?

Yes, it appears that Capt. Ed has crashed. He was posting rough info from the Maratimes, but I ain't telling other than to say...

sorry folks, can't do that to the dear Tyee!

2 sites that I am aware of are..
http://semperfidoordie.blogspot.com/2006/01/liveblogging-canadian-elections.html and http://www.thesurlybeaver.ca/

Was looking forward to posting predictions... but now I guess all I can officially predict is that the Canucks will come back and take down the Blues.

Bush did a good job of getting his guy out there early trying to gag the war factor, then following up with his "mini-campaign" to (fraudulently) take the edge off Iraq.

In my opinion, the squelching of the war/antiwar debate helped both the conservatives and the liberals. I would have hoped the NDP would have more stridently pushed this issue, but what the heck... we'll see what happens eh?

Iraq will still be there next time around.

tks,
rjm

I just want to confirm a result, the Blues are indeed up 1-0 and I for one can't stomach much more of this

rjm makes a good point. The American religious right has made a concerted effort, from all appearances, to infiltrate or influence the Conservatives and Liberals alike. That's what all that Reform/Alliance C.R.A.P. was all about, ne?

So, How'd they do, dja think? Did they suceed at all? Are we facing an Americanization of the Canadian political system?

If you promise to come back to us here at The Tyee... I'll give you an interesting url. It's where you can find what all the blogging candidates are saying: http://www.confeederation.ca/

Thanks to Tyee site manager Dawn Buie for passing on the address!

A few desultory thoughts as Canada gets ready to crown the winner of its 38th National Electoral Games:

I was at the dentist’s this afternoon, reading a copy of Maclean’s from early December. At the time, the Liberals were comfortably in front of the Conservatives in the polls.

The stories:

1) Portrayed Paul Martin as a crafty guy who was on track to pull off another undeserved victory.

2) Portrayed Stephen Harper as a tough-luck loser who was unlikely to make any headway, especially in Ontario.

The point of this observation is not to mock Maclean’s magazine or even to mock the dated nature of my dentist’s reading material. (I, for one, can’t get enough of the Star Weekly. It’s what makes this country great.)

The point of this is to mock the media as a whole.

The media create narratives for campaigns based on what the polls say. When Martin was ahead in the polls he was obviously a winner with a clever strategy.

When he fell behind, it became obvious that Martin was a loser who had no strategy.

Would there have been the same outcry if Buzz Hargrove had suggested Stephen Harper was a separatist when the Liberals were up 10 points in the polls?

***

About that Liberal strategy… It’s hard to imagine the Grits running a worse campaign, short of actually going out into the streets and throwing rocks at voters.

It’s never a great idea to base your entire campaign on waiting for the other guy to screw up. And it’s never helpful to have the Mounties announce they’re going to nose around your finance minister in the middle of an election.

And when the Liberals went over the top with the “soldiers with guns” ad, they blew off any chance that anyone would listen to anything they said about Harper.

***

If the polls hold up, by the way, the Liberals could make history tonight. In the 37 general elections since 1867, the party has never taken less than 28 per cent of the popular vote.

(They got 28 per cent, and 40 MPs, in the Brian Mulroney slobberknocker of 1984. Mulroney got 50 per cent of the popular vote and 211 seats.)

***

Speaking of polls, don’t put too much trust in any seat projections for B.C. that are based on polling data.

Local issues, local candidates, demographics and the first past the post system mean that small shifts in the popular vote can bring big shifts in the results.

In 2004, for example, the Liberals increased their share of the B.C. vote by less than a single percentage point – and still managed to add three seats to their total.

In the same election, the NDP increased their share of the popular vote by 15 percentage points and gained three seats, exactly the same as the Liberals.

In 1984, the Liberal share of the popular vote in B.C. dropped by six percentage points, but the Liberals went from zero seats to one. The NDP vote was essentially unchanged in that election but the party lost four seats.

The wildest disparity, however, was in 1988, when B.C. swung to the NDP at the same time the rest of the country was giving Mulroney a second majority. In that election, the NDP’s share of the B.C. vote rose by less than two percentage points.

But that was enough to give the party an extra 11 seats.

Like the lady said, we did not make this up.

Not sure what prisons, or if the report referred to all, but heard of incredibly high voter turnout.(Must be they all vote at an advance poll?)

I don't doubt many opposed to prisoners voting are annoyed at the incarcerated shaming the voting record of the "free" voters.

I'm with Tom on translating polling numbers into seat projections.

The national numbers skew because, for instance, ReformaTory support is off the charts in Alberta. Meanwhile, NDP votes tend to be spread pretty thin.

I tend to put more stock in stuff like The Election Prediction project -- http://www.electionprediction.org/2005_fed/index.html -- which goes riding by riding... even though I have a hunch the Tyee's riding by riding breakdown is overestimating the Tory wins/Lib losses.

And it's almost time for the coverage to kick in...

Break out the beer and popcorn!

Thanks to those reporting what they know about election coverage, both kosher, and non!

Marmot Days has a useful link in semperfidoordie. Thanks,Marmot.
I saw some interesting forbidden info there!
I will only say it appears to confirm an interesting regional late surge as reported in the latest CPAC SES poll:
http://www.sesresearch.com/election/SES%20CPAC%20January%2022%202006E.pdf
The surlybeaver appears to have gone the way of Capt. Ed, unfortunately: hard to access.
...Perhaps Elections Canada has enlisted hackers to assemble gov't computers sufficient to launch "denial of service" attacks against Capt. Ed and the Beaver!

That court case someone mentioned is still scheduled to be heard by the Supreme Court later this year.
Some blogger was charged with making public the
eastern results before voting ended in the west
in a previous election. He's been tried twice. He lost once, and won once, and it's now being appealed to the S.C.

My seat predictions:

Conservatives: 130 to 140
Liberals: 90 to 100
Bloc Quebecois: 55 to 60
NDP: 20 to 25

A Conservative minority government: the Spawn of the Nephilim and their political servants will have their power curbed in Canada until the next federal election.

I just accessed them. It is legal for us, right?

Mark: Don't expect numbers till 7PM PT.
6:30 to 7 is just the pre-game show.

I got through to the surlybeaver! He's got more
info than the other one!
Wow, a certain former Transportation mogul should be smiling - for a short while...!

red river girl: I see your fave frat boy won his seat! I wonder if his ex will??

Well, he is just such, don't you think?

Sorry to hear that he kept his seat.

We just turned to CBC newsworld and the whole thing is blacked out! This law has to be changed. Maybe we should all have the am off work and have our polls close at 5.

I've never seen this before: I have CBC Newsworld
on my TV, except it's not there!
Instead I see a message from Shaw saying:
"Due to subsection 328(1) of the Canada Elections Act, the following program(s) have been blacked out. Programming will resume later this evening."
-CBC wasn't even prepared for this for BC? Mother Corp!

rrg : I'm no fan, but I feel more neutral than you, despite his transgressions, which are considerable.
No, I nominate Ignatieff as frat boy #1 in this election!

Anybody know where i can get the site 'DemoncrationAction'??

Actually I meant 'deomcraticaction'

Will the Liberals set a record tonight for their fewest-ever seats in Quebec?

Lowest was in 1882 with 13; then 1867 and 1884 with 17 in both.

They won 22 in 2004.

Yup, a minute in and CTV has called it for The Tories...

Surprise Upset! NOT.
At 7PM PT, Global TV has declared a Cons gov't!
They won't declare minority/majority yet.

Well, we've known for days from every poll going
that a Cons minority was a virtual certainty.

Mackay and Brison both re-elected.

Now, back to CBC. Global's part the evil Aper empire. I've done enough "slumming" for tonight.

And at five minutes in Global calls it for The Tories...

Kevin Newman (who, by the way, is huge. I mean massive arms) just declared a Conservative minority.

And at 8 minutes the Libs call it for a Tory minority... Unless, of course, The Libs sweep Alberta and BC???

A shock radio host, running as an independent, is leading in Quebec.

Kevin's one of the under-Apes, right?
It was a Freudian slip when I typed "Aper" instead of Asper, but I won't renounce it!

The Election prediction project had the Quebec shock jock winning...

CBC has the Greens leading in one riding - anybody know which one?

Here's a question:

If the Grits maintain a [slightly] higher popular vote percentage than the Tories, what is the impact for the federal-level electoral reform 'movement'?

Greens leading in Prince George-Peace River.
That's on the basis of one poll.

That's up in PG, but it's only one poll reporting. I can't see a Green winning there... but, in true Canadian political tradition, anything's possible.

By the way, my earlier longwinded post was wrong -- this is the 39 General election.
Disregard everything I say from here on in.

After one poll: Zeisman has four votes. Insert Zeisman joke here.

And I lost out on my big prediction of the night... Canucks lost 4-0.

Wish I'd got my election predictions out there before they would have qualified as illegal...

To follow your fave candidates with real time numbers check out The Elections Canada website... http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx

redrivergirl writes:

I think the silly polls reporting horserace nonsense should be stopped.

We can all have the 'official' results posted in papers, live reporting etc at the same time 24 HOURS AFTER the last polls close.

The TV networks and polyticks junkies may hate it, but it would be better.

It will be interesting to watch the NDP vote in West Vancouver -- Sunshine Coast. The NDP and Liberal candidates are both Wilsons and it should be a tight seat. We could see a little Green/Green action.

Evening Dippers!! Just thought I'd take a break from the celebrations here and say GOOOO CONSERVATIVES!! That's a minority....Let's go for a majority!!!

Sleep tight!!

So much for the Green surge. CBC has declared Conservative Jay Hill elected in Prince George-Peace River.

I must say the only thing that actually got thru to me was the Conservative's 'moustache' ad. Because actually, I DO support legalized drugs and higher gas taxes. Estate taxes, I'm sorry but I don't know about the issue or expect an inheritance. As for no tax cuts... well, I could live with it. I ended up voting Green in Libby Davies' riding so the Greens could get $ome.

All the ads sucked however. A surfeit of cheesy 2D motion grafx a sign of parties on a budget perhaps?

As to in-studio coverage. All hail the mini-jib!

Joseph Fequal, a former PQ minister pundizing on CTV, is like a Bond villain.

I like this about the results:
The size of the Cons win is not huge. So, it shouldn't be difficult to muster sufficient opposition to nix any proposed Cons legislation that tilts too far right. Harper will have a fairly tight rein on him.

On the the Estate Tax 'issue'... We might do well to keep in mind that removing it would bring that paticular wedge issue into alignment with some of our other 'deathly' laws, namely the fact that you can't sue someone after they're/you're dead; you can in the States (at least for libel and defamation).

Let's bury this and move on (this should be my last pun of the night, I hope).

I too live in Van East and did the same as Stump.
I hoped Libby would win, and was certain she would.
So I voted Green to give them $1.75, but mostly 'cause they need to show their popular support is here to stay.

Former journalist or talking head/"bingo caller" Peter Kent (Cons)lost to a Lib in Ont. Good.

Stump,

Totally agree. The ads for all parties were terrible, with the exception of the "moustache ad" which was kind of funny. It would also be effective for someone learning towards the Cons.

However, all parties could have paid a bunch of Grade 9s to produce better ads.... with a home computer and a video camera.

Valeri lost in Hamilton to the NDP.
Any word on Anne Mclelland ?

With that Ham thing I have it Con + Dippers at 152...This is getting pretty darned interesting.

Bev Desjarlais is third in Churchill, trailing Niki Ashton by 600 votes. Guess that's what happens when a NDP MP votes her conscience and her constituents' wishes, instead of following the dictats of Iron Jack (It's My Party) Layton. Better to have a 23-year old daughter of provincial cabinet minister than someone who isn't a trained seal.

Joyless McPhail is crowing that Harper has been humbled, and the NDP are going to pull the strings. On CTV 79.

Anyone up on parliamentary rules?

I haven't seen too many urban returns yet, but given how B.C. appears to be going it looks like the NDP is picking up a lot of seats. Enough that, together with the Grits, they could hit the magic 155.

Would it be possible for the NDP and the Libs for form a coalition, go to the Gov-Gen and argue that they could form a stable, majority gov't?

This is how the B.C. Lib-Con coalition kept the CCF out of power in B.C. in the early '50s.

There's a good argument for it -- stability being the chief one.

CTV declares Stephen Owen re-elected in Vancouver Quadra, Ujjal Dosahjh re-elected in Vancouver South.

Shock jock still leading in Quebec.

1945 hours.

Sorry Bailey, but clearly it looks like the country has voted "strategically". The Liberals are being punished, the Cons are going to be held to a narrow majority government, and the NDP vote is approaching levels not seen for a long time. Even the Greens have shown some added strength.

The Cons are technically going to be the government, but their testacles have been "crimped". (I would have preferred to use my trusty jackknife per my usual practice on the farm.) This Conservative government, if it wants to last at all however, is going to have to behave like a pussy cat.

Unless, a sweetheart deals emerges between the Conservatives and the right wing of the Liberals. And pay attention to this one. It is far from outside the realm of possibility.

Thus far, from a "moderate" progressive point of view, I think, a good result, or as could have been expected.

But the most positive aspect of it is, another minority government is a continued indication of a state of flux, shifting ground and changing loyalties within the political system of the nation. A good thing, from the perspective of a more radical left perspective, that with the ground beginning to move, there will be a casting about for clearer, more highly motivated alternatives in the evolving future.

There are modest numbers of us out here in the political wilderness for sure, waiting patiently to come into the social, economic and political play. First though, we have to wait in line for the NDP to expose and exhaust itself, and its narrow limitations. :-)

Nathan Cullen in Skeena is winning big.

Global declares Belinda Stronach re-elected.
No comment from Peter MaKay.
Ignatieff elected in Toronto.

Global speculating that Michael Ignatieff will be next Lib leader...
I thought that was a rumour that Charles Campbell started here...

Global has landslide Annie McLellan defeated.
People at her H.Q. seem to think she's ahead.

What a ride. I actually thought The Libs were gonna take it and increase their seat count until... Boxing Day... I know the conventional wisdom is that it was income trust that put the ReformaTories into play in Ontario (which is what put them into play everywhere else), but I think it was 15 kids in a shoot out on Yonge Street that changed the game... Right wing parrties always play well on law and order issues.

Then I bought the polls and was thinking 140 Tories until I remembered... aren't these the same pollsters that told us Tory minority last time? And I never think it's easy to take down incumbents.

So... This is the prediction I sent out at 4 a.m. last night... that I wasn't sure if I could post 'cause we went live after the voters were being counted back east...
Tories... 124
Libs... 91
NDP... 32
Bloc... 60
Other... 1

Didn't actually believe the ReformaTory numbers in Quebec were real though...

So... is everybody ready to do this again in 18 months?

But will PM Jr. hang on now that it looks like he's gonna hit doube digits or will the Liberals be getting Frank with us? Or... the goalie --who made the best case for the Libs I heard this election. http://www.kendryden.ca/

See, I thought it was Charles Campbell for next Lib leader.

Vancouver Island North is heading NDP by the looks of it

Love this... MIke Duffy just reported that Paul Martin may not concede tonight...

I take it back about Bev Desjarlais in Churchill. Liberal Tina Keeper now leading...

Global has Penny Priddy elected in Surrey North (Cadman's old riding).

I love that the district with the voter chaos is Van Centre and Hedy vs. Svend!

Charles Campbell as new Liberal leader I might be able to stomach. Ignatieff on the other hand is a bit different. Somebody with power obviously wants Ignatieff in power.

First polls are in from Van Centre: Hedy in a big lead.

I think Belinda has a better shot at Lib leader than Ignatieff... But... Charles has potential...

Bill Good just had the best Freudian slip of the night... He was talking about the Stephen Martin cabinet... Now that'd be a wild and crazy PM!

The fractured results coming out of Greater Vancouver give us all food for federal funding thought...

It looks like the Liberals will take parts of Vancouver proper -- and perhaps some parts west. The NDP appears to geographically centred in the larger city (e.g. Black, Julian, Siksay, Davies). And it's even a foot race in Newton-North Delta between the NDP's Nancy Clegg and the Liberal, Sukh Dhaliwal.

The Conservatives will... er, have taken the Valley with ease, leaving James Moore holding back the urban polyglot onslaught from the Tri-Cities eastward on the north side of the Fraser.

Now, think about the New Deal agreement (http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/ndcc/agreements/gt_can_bc_e.shtml). And think about regional transit, which essentially requires federal funding for all of its major projects (Think Stephen Owen a la RAV).

Mix this in with a minority Conservative government, and I believe that the dollars may rise depending on which party holds the balance of power... maybe.

The Liberal party has a long (back to Laurier) tradition of alternating between anglophones and francophones. So, unless Belinda or Iggy can prove their habitant roots...

Libs elected 11 and leading in 3 in Quebec, but Pettigrew not one of them (trailing by 500 votes in Papineau).

Global has declared David Emerson elected in Kingsway.
So B.C. is sending at least three ex-ministers to sit in the Opposition benches in Ottawa.
Not exactly what they bargained for when the Grits talked them into running...

Just wondering... Does Jack get to celebrate trading the balance of power in a Liberal minority parliament to potential irrelevance in a Tory minority?

MLY--

What is really so crazy about that weird chimera of Mr. Good's?

After all, it would be 227 seat super plurality where each could play off of the others negatives (ie. I had to sign that Anti-Ballistic Treaty to keep Harper's saber rattlers happy etc....)

Global says that would be a lib/ndp coalition. lol

CTV has Don Bell elected for the Liberals in North Vancouver.

Will sed:
> The Liberal party has a long (back to Laurier)
> tradition of alternating between anglophones and
> francophones. So, unless Belinda or Iggy can
> prove their habitant roots...

Erm, Will, Martin *is* from Quebec, and a fracophone as well. The Quebecois have had two in a row so by that criteria Belinda and Iggy are well positioned.

Ezra Lavant is having a fit over the prospect of the Cons having to sit it out if we do what they did in the 1925 coalition. My hat's tasting better. :-)

Plus, apparently BC is known as the province who dislikes Harper the most for all you who want to separate thinking it would mean a right wingers dream.

CTV also has Catherine Bell elected in Van Island North for the NDP
And they've got Anne McLellan on -- she's not conceding defeat and CTV isn't calling it yet.

To the Wolves is Jim Harris. With 160 of 203 polls reporting back east in Beaches-East York, Harris is pulling in 6.3 per cent of the riding's 29,686 votes thus far recorded.

But look at it from Rafe's point-of-view: Harris has, himself, earned -- so far -- just over $4,000 for the Green cause.

That's either (a) a few Tory kid rebates, or (b) a lot of beer and popcorn, right?

Ed... geez, if you wanna peddle that in la bella province, I'll split ya on the bus tkt.

Paul Martin, Jr., was born in Windsor, Ontario. His Dad was 1/2 French (on his mother's side), but his Mom was Scots-Irish.

French is Junior's second language...

Nice try. LOL.

Olivia Chow elected (on the third try) in Toronto

Oh, I'm so glad Olivia Chow won!

I agree, there are more than a few neo-cons dressed up as liberals these days. I am amazed, after all that has gone on in the last few years, that everyone in the country doesnt recognize the conservative identity of the liberal party.

tks,
rjm

Wasn't the whole point of Jack calling the election so that he could save on long distance bills?

NDP internal numbers have Savoie considerably ahead in Victoria

CTV: Hedy Fry re-elected in Centre.

Maybe that's a bad thing, maybe it's a good thing in Van-Centre... Can anyone imagine the headlines in some of the city's local rags if Robinson could... er... take the riding from Fry?

I shudder to think about such bad journalism.

Svend is conceding on CBC

2045 hours.

Okay, I'm politiked out. It's standing at
122 Harpo Cons
105 Dead Duck Martin Libs
50 Duceppe's Bloc (Actually my narrow favourite.)
30 NDP

The country, overall, presuming those figures more or less hold, voted intelligently and strategically, within the limitations of current capitalist FPTP democracy. I'm satisffied with that.

The Cons are forced to kiss the Great Unwashed ass for a change, instead of blowing the suits under the table, if they want to survive and get anything done. That's a good thing.

And that's what is most important; those wild-eyed, reactionary Erwinesque Cons have been held to a tamed and relatively harmless minority, while the gangsta Libs have been successfully punished, at least some.

For now, for me, that's good enough. As good as it gets for an old blue collar radical, in these candy ass, wimp ass times, and given the level of popular understanding.

Eat my shorts Ron, and the rest of you Braunshirt bootlicks. :-) I'm to bed, to cuddle my dick up the crack of the old lady's ass.

Wll sed:
> Paul Martin, Jr., was born in Windsor, Ontario.
> His Dad was 1/2 French (on his mother's side),
> but his Mom was Scots-Irish.

All irrelevant. He has been domiciled in Quebec for many years and represents a Montreal riding. He is a Quebecer now, whatever he was when he was born.

CTV: NDP's Denise Savoie declared in Victoria, David Anderson's old seat.

Hello from Kuala Lumpur, voters. People here seem to be taking the news calmly.

As for me, in a West Ender column earlier this month I predicted a Lib minority and a Svend victory.

And that's why I'm hiding out in Kuala Lumpur.

Who's got the pool going on how long the Conservative minority government will last?

If we're going by Price is Right rules, I'll bid one minute.

I just don't see the NDP propping up Harper and co.

So, a Conservative/Bloc coalition that can pass legislation devolving powers to the provinces. But a Bloc/NDP/Lib coalition that can block any Conservative attempts to dismantle existing welfare state programs. Should be an interesting session or two.

RRGirl--

Agreed re: Ms. Chow.

She is the real thing.

____
Tangential but....

What are all those BC Martinis going to do now?

.

Somewhere Jean Chretien is teeing up an autographed golf ball and laughing his head off...

And did you see Martin playing cards earlier this evening. Caught a glimpse of the joker: Gomery.

Jack doesn't currently have the seats to prop up the ReformaTories. Harper needs the Liberals or the Bloc to play with him. If the numbers hold, the NDP has gone from holding the balance of power to, um, having as much power as the shock jock in Quebec...

Yeah, teeing up with Alfonso Galiano. After me the....

Alex Waterhouse-Hayward

I'm giving them three years, less a day. The Liberal Pary will likely do the new leader thing (one year), and reassess its polcies (one year). Then it needs a year -- give or take -- to ramp up the rhetoric.

The NDP needs the Liberals, socially speaking.

The Bloc needs... well, what does a provincially-bound party need?

This prediction will come back to bite me in the butt. At least of that, I'm sure.

Martin just resigned!!!

Wow - PM PM steps down!!!!!

Martin steps down as leader.

Paul Martin just announced he won't lead the party into the next election.

Belinda Stronach for Blue Liberal leader!!!!

He must have received my prediction via Blackberry; that was quick.

Um... The Liberals just stole all the headlines on a night they lost!

Paul Martin announces his intention to step down as leader.

And Keith Martin re-elected in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca.

I think I'm the first to coin the term for a coming political malaise: "Eastern Alienation". Assuaging it will be Harper's big job, now, if he's to claw out of minority status. So have to wonder how much real "access" the West has achieved with this victory. BC comes off lukewarm to Harper, whose job from here on out is to build out his base in Ontario and Quebec. Could have a reverse of what BC had under the Libs. A "Western" PM with lots of cabinet members from back east.

David;
I am counting on Con + Bloc = 176
Lib + NDP = 131
There is more in common between the Bloc and Con than any Canadians are willing to admit.
I don't want to explain that now except to say that they both want a smaller Federal Govt., and stronger Provincial rights.
Paul Martin has resigned, no surprise. I hope our " too liberal " Canada is laid to rest.
Steven Harper turned out to be one hell of a campaigner.
I guess Jack gets to hold on to his job.

Ed: the Liberal tradition is not to alternate between a QUEBECER and an anglophone. It's to alternate between a FRANCOPHONE and an anglophone.

You may want to look up (or ask some one) what pure laine means...

Again, nice try.

I'm with David, The Conservative Bloc union is possible with firewall Steven and I'm lookin' out for Quebec Gilles. Ironically, I'm wondering if Harper will be have a tough balancing act within his own party as the radicals, and there are many start demanding that the "program" be implemented and the old Tories, who are pretty close to the Libs now don't want it.

This is interesting, Could be far worse though.

Raymond Chan re-elected in Richmond, holding off former Focus on the Family Canada Conservative Darrel Reid.

Martin is just announcing his resignation. Predictable, and helpful.

I just got back from one of the happiest "defeat" parties I've ever attended--Sherry Shaghaghi's North Vancouver campaign ran on a handful of volunteers and almost no money, but she did a solid job and brought the local Iranian community into politics in a big way. We haven't seen the last of her.

Meanwhile Don Bell has kept Cindy Silver out of office, an enormous relief.

This was a brilliant and selfless tactical move by PM. It gives the Liberal party some rebuilding time and the social conservatives some rope.

Yeah. Martin just stated in no uncertain terms he will step down ASAP!

The drama has just gotten more interesting!
I'll bet Harper was hoping Martin would stay to be beaten by the Cons again next time - with a majority!

A fresh Lib leader, hopefully with minimal baggage will have the best chance of knocking off the Cons.

Jean Chretien has his long awaited revenge tonight.

Michael Ignatieff looks like he'll win his seat.

Ron:

I have to give you credit. You grasp at straws with class. There really is nothing in common between Quebec and Alberta.

Liberal Tina Keeper elected in Churchill. Three cheers for Jack Layton... he lost a safe NDP seat, but he's eliminated an independent voice from his caucus. All you seals, bark!

So whom do we want for the new Liberal leader? I hear a lot of support for Ken Dryden. That would necessitate the Cons drafting Gretzky.

Given the inept campaign the Liberals ran, 102 seats isn't too bad.

A few more notes from out here in KL:

The news about Martin is here on the Tyee blog but still not on CBC.ca or Google News--they are dropping the ball very badly. CBC.ca has not refreshed riding results in ages.

Re: Martin--It's John Turner Syndrome all over again. The great Leader-to-Be who waits in the wilderness for coronation, only to find that his moment passed while waiting in line.

IMHO the Liberal party should use this time to find a fiscally responsible member to give the red tories a home closer to the centre.

The Conservative party is going to be in for a tough internal battle.

I would not call Martin's stepping down a "selfless act"!
He's saving himself much humiliation. The knives
would be out for him otherwise. Chretienites would be emboldened to do all in their power to
topple him in the ugliest fashion.
The Liberal party will now have a chance to reunite, after the Martin-provoked deep division.
Harper should be worried.

Who thinks the green party will be looking for a greener leader in the next kick at the can?

Gretzky is a centre. The Conservatives would want to draft a right winger. I'd suggest Jari Kurri, but he's a Finn.

Steve Burgess, welcome from way over in Kuala Lumpur. What do people there think about Harper's pledge to whittle down the GST!!!

Looking ahead to the next election, will the chastened Liberals come back after their time-out?

Or will the reigned-in Conservatives prove themselves palatable enough to take a majority the next time around?

Dave--Here in Kuala Lumpur, I think they see the whole contest as a metaphor for a giant wrestling match. I base this on the fact that every TV screen I can find features pro wrestling. Understanding the nuance of it will take some study.

Nina Grewal is back!!!

So in B.C., the story is an urban/rural divide. Outside of the Zeisman collapse and Cullen in Skeena, the Conservatives kept their lock on the bush and couldn't break through in the big city.

That's funny, Steve. For a long time at my house this evening the election coverage looked a lot like episodes of Spongebob Squarepants. But I put the kids to bed and the television analysis has become more nuanced.

So....Is Warren Kinsella chortling now or what?

____
Re: New Lib leader....Manley is sure joking it up on CBC.... and don't forget Ignatieff won....

_____
Gosh, Ed Broadbent makes sense; and, you know, he tells you what he thinks, but he doesn't spin....make three of them and you'd have that ol' Lewis, Kierans camp and Camp triumverate on Gzowski
____
Looks like Madame Dufarge is barely han

ctv: Dawn Black declared elected in New West-Coquitlam. Beat Conservative Paul Forseth, who won by 113 votes in 2004.

It will be an interesting couple of years. Watch for the wing-nuts to come out of the woodwork early on.

Thankfully, Svend "Get out Jail Free" Robinson lost. His past was a major factor.

I would place my bets of Pierre Pettigrew for the next leader of the Liberal Party.

Dear Ron- Harper has a minority gov`t, which is only fair, as he didn`t receive more than 50% of the vote. Don`t you agree?

Surrey North remains the B.C. riding wherein you need the least votes to win. Penny Priddy is running away with around 13,000 votes.

After the last election, the Globe ran a headline that read something like 'Ontario saves the Liberals' (I'm working off memory here). Any bets on tomorrow's screaming heads for the rags?

Any idea on the popular vote?

hey ronnie the liberals lost by 21 seats after all the scandals, wasted tax payer dollars, arrogance and internal bickering, doesn't say much for harper does it lol! Some Victory! Oh and didn't a liberal insider give harper the liberal platform?

Richard, following on your urban/rural divide note. Then there are the burbs. And the Vancouver suburbs haven't gone right; in fact some have registered their anger with the Libs by going NDP. The US Republicans do well in the burbs, even around San Francisco. But not here for the Conservatives...yet.

Con 36.39%
Lib 30.10%
Bq 10.54%
Ndp 17.41%
Ind .53%
Oth 5.04%

Dream on, Ron. The Liberals held more seats than even their own pundits expected. It's safe to say a good portion of the votes gained by the Cons were to punish the Liberals rather than a vote for Harper.

Harper won, but it could be the worst possible win. How long do you think he'll be able to work with the Bloc, dismantling the country, before the electorate says enough?

The national government of Canada with NO representatives from Toronto, Montreal, or Vancouver. That is going to be some cabinet!

What's that sound I hear? Oh no. Watch out. Get out while you can. It's a firewall being erected around the province of Alberta.

Pierre Pettigrew looks like he'll lose his seat.

Didn't Pettigrew lose tonight, I'm not sure that would matter in a leadership race, but still...

WMan--

A far cry from that 18 percent that the Strategic Counsel was posting up just a week ago, huh.

Heckfire, where have we seen that kind of thing before?

After the double whammy of the Push for Gordo then then the Big Mo thing for Little Stephen, I've cancelled my Globe Subscription entirely, even my Sat. Morning pick-up to get Doug Saunders.*

_____
and the Heather Mallick incident did not help either.

CBC: Conservative Nina Grewal re-elected in Fleetwood-Port Kells.

Re: the Urban/Rural divide...the exception, I believe, might be Vancouver Island....clearly Mr. Harper is going to have to garrison the place.

David: The burbs have been the key to repeated conservative majorities in Australia as well. I think, if anything, this election is showing the real diversity of Vancouver's suburbs. There is no single suburban vote.

RossK, the NDP got 17.1%

Richard: I see you've been reading Ibbitson lately.

I was about to comment about the urban/rural paradigm vis-a-vis the traditional East-Centre/West or Quebec/English ideas...

Certainly, B.C. results give credence to such new analysis, with the exceptions being rural ridings where the NDP can still count on union support. And Ontario (i.e. Toronto v. cottage country), the Maritimes and Sask. fit the bill, too.

But what in Quebec where the Bloc rules, or in Alberta where the usual rules of politics and democracy don't always (usually?) apply?

So, given the distribution of seats, what do people think of Harper's chances of:

killing Kyoto
partnering on missile defence
tearing up aboriginal agreements
privatizing more areas of health care

And am I missing other big policy shifts that Liberal 'scare' ads warned us about?

Looks like the NDP's Peter Julian has held on in Burnaby-New West. He won by less than one per cent last time.

No, no, no WM.

I'm talking about the Con/Lib split....It is six...SC had it at 18% when it was still doing its outlier thing for Fast Eddie G.

.

I would like to have seen Svend cry again. I guess he is saving that for later. For now, he will have to live on that pittance of a pension he gets and the nice job the CLC gave him, in which has does absolutely nothing.

Yep, Richard, that's how I was reading the burb vote, too. I think we make a mistake in generalizing, and I think many suburbs are becoming more 'urban' in sensibility as well as social issues.

Other Policy shifts?.....How about the axing of real daycare seats? That might be the easiest after all that 'beer and popcorn' business...plus it would be a true bit of taxcut candy for the base.

...and we certainly do not have as many dingos in rural Canada (interpret this as you may. Individual mileage may vary).

Kinsella just cottened on....he says he won't be part of the Lib Leadership thing.

David: The big myth about Kyoto is that you have to actually do something to kill it. If you want Kyoto to die, you just keep doing nothing, allowing emissions to rise, there's no real punitive element to the treaty. Harper can ignore the treaty (much as the Liberals have) without the political cost of formally withdrawing.

Anybody know what's happening in Vancouver Island North? NDP Bell earlier declared elected, but CBC site now has Cons Duncan in the lead by 200+ votes...

I can hear Svend from here as his campaign HQ is really close:

really, the voters of fleetwood-pt. kells deserve some kind of award for achievement in the field of stupidest constituency in the country...

The burbs have never been monolithic. There's usually been strong NDP support in parts of Surrey and in Burnaby, New West and Coquitlam, both federally and provincially.

DJ: I always read my Ibbitson. He's so handsome and stern.

And, horror of horrors, what will Haiti do without Svend going to save it? He could still go, I suppose, but he'd have to find a private donor to pay for it now that he can't get the taxpayers to pay for it. He is far too uderpaid to do it himself.

chuckstraight,
I voted for STV, did you ?

Ursus;
What spin you merry-go-round you !

Meanwhile Steven Harper is your Prime Minister.
There won't be another election any day soon, if you listened to the defeated leaders concession speeches

Elections Canada has Duncan up 230 in Van Isle North

Ron:

Harper might be PM. But how long can he keep the socons reigned in?

Van Isle North-- elections canada has Con, Duncan, up by 220 votes....gather that is the Dipper drop from 29 to 28.

That is very true, Ron. The Liberals will wait for the Sieg-heil element of your party to get them elected in a couple of years. It is a lot harder to run when you have a record, something no other party had this evening.

Recall that the Bloc is predominantly ex-Mulroney Quebec tories. It is quite possible we won't be @ the polls for about 2 years. Interesting to say the least.

Kyoto was essentially ratified by the Grits, so I can't see them taking kindly to its demise. It also doesn't seem too far a stretch to say that the Dippers won't support the initiative.

Bloc support for an NDP idea (clean-air & water acts) might become the incubus for horse trading here.

It might also allow certain MPs (resource-rich riding NDP and Bloc MPs) to save face in accepting Tory proposals -- and they'll have to be proposals -- involving the environment.

I really can't see the BLOC voting along with the reform/alliance/conservative minority government on most things. Social programs , right to choose, same sex marriage for example.

So harper will be sort of restricted as the Liberals and NDP have mor seats than he has and the BLOC will sit dogo for awhile before starting the old seperatist ideas. If Harper went along with them, he would be the laughing stock of most of the country. maybe he could get Alberat to seperate and he could be king

Re: Ibbitson -- Handsome, stern and a double-double will get you future columns about why Missile Defense is a reasonable half of a quid pro quo.

.

Well it's final. Alberta has become a Conservative landfill site. At least Anne McLellan will not be around breathing heavily into the security service ears.

Alberta is the only province that has NO, NONE, NADA balance whatsoever. The majority of ridings had the Cons hugely ahead.

Last popular vote figures were, roughly:
Cons............36%
Libs............30%
NDP.............17%
Bloc............10%
Green........... 4%
Other........... 3%

You answer my question, and I`ll answer yours, Ron. It would seem fair that any party that doesn`t receive more than 50% of the vote, really isn`t a majority, don`t you agree?

CBC appears to have elected Liberal Sukh Dhaliwal in Newton-North Delta.
That's Gurmant Grewal's old riding.

Re: V.I. North: if the absentee votes are counted last(not sure if that is the case) then votes from CFB Comox may be swinging the numbers to the right (that's what happened during the last provincial election...)

And while we're looking for new party leaders... If Rafe really wants to help The Green Party... of course, then he wouldn't have time for The Tyee.

The NDs and Libs now get a chance to cleanse. Hacks Svend and Waddell hopefully won't dare run for another nomination. Cleansing also occurs in Ottawa - good news for Libs and Cons both. This has been one great compromise which I don't think anyone can be really happy with but not too disappointed either. The best thing is - and I don't think it has ever happened before (check this one, maybe it happened in '79 under Clark) - Ontario is predominantly in oppoisition. Nice change.

Rafe for the Greens. Charles Campbell for the Liberals. I guess that means Dave Beers for the Conservatives.

Don't know Mark. Rafe manages to get in a fair amount of campaigning for the Greens on Tyee time! :)

Duceppe just did it....he gave Harper the opportunity and he linked fixing the fiscal imbalance to sovereignty.

Oh boy.

.

A government without representation in the nation's three largest cities. I'm sure that means something significant. Probably something weighty.

Seems to me that Harper's winning formula is to address the 'fiscal imbalance' and leave the other social conservative issues very much alone. If he plays his cards right he may be able to siphon off more Bloc support in Quebec if the next election comes before there's a provincial vote in that province. Of course he'll bring in 'accountability' legislation which nobody would dare vote against and the promises tax cuts to the GST too. The minority situation gives him a lot more power over the social radicals in his caucus - he can easily avoid their pressure by pointing out that he can't get any of their priorities through a minority house.
I think he was prepared for this and it was very much in his mind whenever he talked about gradualism and going slow as a potential Prime Minister.

I bet Harper's team has had to rewrite his acceptance speech, from look out Canadians to we are so conciliatory and will be the leader for all. lol That's why he isn't on yet. Or, he had one to many beers.

Richard: I'm thinking more of hijacking the leadership of the Work Less party. With a name like Beers...

This is what I feel like doing right now.

rrg--

Naw...it's just taking a long time to get all that pink-tinged calamine lotion scrubbed off.

Great time to be a provincial leader with your hand out!

I wonder if:
http://i32.photobucket.com/albums/d47/alexwh12/JonathonYoungTheElectricCompanybyAl.jpg

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Alex please stop tring to insert images in the comments- It won't work and you just stretch the layout-

Tyee Site Manager

Call this a status quo election in BC. By my count 26 incumbents sought re-election (14 Cons; 7 Libs; 5 NDP) and all won except one: Forseth in New West-Coquitlam.

Popular vote in BC (compared to 2004)... Conservatives, 37.4% (+1); NDP, 28.4% (+2); Liberals, 27.7% (-1); Greens, 5.4% (-1)

Pretty much a replay of 2004.

G West--

But not a very good time to be a Provincial Martini that might get your wrist slapped, or worse.

.

Gotta remember too that a lot of Conservative voters belong to the blue rinse crowd. THere's going to be a few less of them around for the next vote. Seems to me thats the reason the Tories are so weak in the big cities too - other than Alberta of course!

Unfortunately the suburbs of Langley, Abbotsford or Chilliwack are only becoming more "urban "in terms of more ashphalt if these results are any indication. Certainly not much bush left out here, but I look forward to any future change in social values -- that is, in terms of movement towards humanist values.

Last I checked Skeena-Bulkley Valley and B.C. South Interior had both elected NDP MPs.

Harper just coming into camera range - this will be interesting!

Bell is back ahead in Vancouver Island North

The sad thing is these clowns will be representing us abroad. Saying all sorts of stupid things.

For sure. This ought to cause them some pause.

chuckstraight;

I already told you that I voted for STV, me and 58.5678% of other BC voters.
The Party leading us , usually has less than 50% of the popular vote.

4cryinoutlould ;
I am equally amazed. What does anyone make of this ?
I am happy, many may be sad.

Boy, htat inside circle sure is white and blonde!

Bell back up in Van Isle North....

rrg--yup that circle sure is pasty...but I could of sworn I heard Peter McKay say his was the 'most diverse party in the entire country' earlier this evening.

Levant is such a neocon. He is drooling. Wait til Harper gets the scrutiny the PM gets. They won't be able to run him like GB in Canada.

Somebody give me a map.

Has anybody found a geographical representation of how the results have been painting the country?

Elections Canada puts out a great one by PDF after everything's confirmed, but I'm impatient; I wanna see something now. Directions?

i guess its toronto that needs to build a firewall...

10 people with brown hair and 8 of them white!

Do you think he'll mention Tom Flanagan?

That is a very bad picture to the rest of Canada. We haven't seen a backdrop like that for 50 years. Very telling.

any predictions or wagers on cabinet-making?

jason kenney! stockwell day! preston manning to the senate? what will frank mckenna's fate be? and so forth...

Here he goes talking like GB with all his political capital.

Bet he signs off with 'God Bless Canada'

Calgary will always be his home says the brat from Leaside.

Time for bed, but just to plug the Marijuana Party, if you have not noticed, in Nunavut the MP candidate has been outpolling the Greens with over 7% of the vote. Things can change, and polls are coming in slowly, but a good show of support for Nunavut homegrown.

The Liberal seems safely elected in Nunavut although with only 25/38 polls counted. Good night all -- guess it could have been worse. Still rather have Stephen Martin as PM.

Oh, one other thing, he'll immediately institute elections to the Senate.

So, is this Joe Clark in 1979, or John Diefenbaker in 1957?

Harper can afford to go slow. Nothing really needs to change. The Israeli Air Force has already had lots of practice with the Cold Lake crew under the watch of a Lib govt. And now the happy troops are shuffling off to Kandahar on Iran's back door, to help grease the machines of occupation, and protect the CIA operatives that are trading arms to warlords for heroin, and catch the return flight in a transfer tube. Golly, an era of "conservative" peace is so close you can smell it like a sour gas well in Ft St. John tonight.

Listening to Harper speaking French in front an Alberta audience is Trudeau's revenge from the grave.

Duceppe made an interesting point that the Conservative win proved that English Canada is moving in the opposite direction from Quebec.

But Harper only won by persuading the public that he was a more moderate man than he was last election.

The Conservatives silenced the more radical elements within the party in order to be successful.

And Martin's anti-Americanism helped his cause, not hurt it.

So a Conservative win is hardly an endorsement for the brand of conservativism that Harper has espoused throughout his career.

Despite the results, Canadians have again proved themselves to be moderate to the extreme.

what's all this 'strong, united, independent and free' codswallop?

Are we being set up?

Our values are expressed through our programs, Mr Harper.

He doesn't feel like 'the Chief' to me. For one, he's not likely to scrap the subs like they were made by Avro. Besides, that would really take away our ability to find U.S. subs in our waters ( http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/engraph/Vol6/no3/04-Maritime_e.asp ).

The results again prove how poorly we are served by the press and other media when it comes to getting anything close to facts instead of opinions. Even the good old Tyee. McMartin predicted 3 Liberal seats. As of now the actual number is 9. That is so far off it should permanently disqualify him from being a pundit. I checked the predictions from the "Strategists" that the Globe and Mail gave its readers yesterday (the G&M being my lesser of two evils when it comes to newspapers- I stopped subscribing to the Sun and Province years ago). Of six pundits, the only one who even came close (Tom Axworthy) had Conservatives 120, Liberals 98, Bloc 63, and NDP 27. The other five had Conservatives with a low of 139 to a high of 161 and Liberals with a low of 69 to a high of 81. What a joke- made worse by the fact that throughout the campaign the "reporting" read more like editorials and opinion pieces than news stories.

Tom Hawthorn - too soon to say; my guess is neither. THis is a new situation. Harper's going to try to be a 'leader' and his success or failure will determine whether he'll be a Clark or a Diefenbaker. My guess is he'll want to have another election sooner rather than later - he just has to find the right issue to fight. Right now he's going to play to his base in Alberta and make it easier for him to get re-elected.

And how many times can he use the word REFORM???

Forseth??? I live in the riding and the election I believe was a local issue affair. I am pleased that it is a minority. Yes, the Bloc is not right wing but you got it, fiscal imbalance & Soveriegnty (association perhaps?): put all the power in the hands of the provinces, in Quebec the left leaning gov't can put reasonable measures in place, while the reform agenda is implemented in the country as a whole with a majority vote in Parliament. A long shot but unfortunately some of these folk (neocons) think that we have to be saved from the evils of modern society. Liberals, get to know some old style tories, they may be the best allies right now.

For Liberal leader, how about our guy in Washington, McKenna. No federal baggage, a personna of standing up and talking straight to Americans and a track record as a provincial premier.

Kim Campbell made sence on whatever station I was watching, Turner and Martin may have sat around waiting to implode, she was trounced by her predecessor.

Sure am glad we're gonna get Newt's 'Contract For America'....err the Gov't Accountability Act.

____
Mr. Beers....he's going for easy stuff....the only real policy reversal is the Daycare thing

Yes, just like GB he has high hopes to implement the neo-con agenda, with all his political capital. We'll see.

This is not a speech most Canadians want to hear. Reform our justice system. That which stands in the way of corporations ruling Canada.

Well, it shows the tea leaves of his failures.

Right DJ. Forgot about those submarines. Wonder if we could retrofit the FastCats with weaponry while we're at it. Pretty soon global warming will open up the Northwest Passage and we've got to be able to patrol it.

He's just set out his program and he thinks nobody would dare fight him over it - after all he has the overwhelming support of less than 40% of the voters.

Did you just here that! Canada will now work for all of us! (because the west is now in)
It's always shocking when someone turns out as badly as you thought.

He's going to try to carve up Canada.

Harper's making solid promises as if he has limitless of political capital to spend. Sure he's got some time to play with but...

...and did he just say that about the West?

THis is a mandate for 'Change' Give me a break!!

The CBC just ran a scrawl noting the Liberals and NDP have more seats than the Conservatives. That's true, but not especially good for democracy if they tried to continue governing.

Here comes our involvement in war. And, with the drum beat for war Canada's youth better look out.

Notice how animated he became when talking about war.

Maybe Harper believes electon fatigue is his best friend. He may try to ram through a more radical agenda, bound up in the budget, etc. and dare his opponents to bring about another election just this fast. That would be high stakes gamesmanship.

Mr. Beers--

You seriously think that is a possibility?

The thing is, that would bring all the really scary stuff out in the open.

And besides, I think it would be tough to reapply that duct tape to all those lips that have had their skin ripped off - he's going to have to wait a bit.

.

I think he's planning on doing that David Beers, but he may be in for a shock.

God bless Canada?

A very poor speech for someone who wants to govern for more than 5 months. But, clearly, these neocons can't get over the old I'm bigger than you so you have to do what I say, school yard mentality. They think they've got the power now. And, as it was pointed to, without a single seat in the three largest cities.

btw-- My vote for best comment of the night is from Tom H re: Trudeau's revenge....

___
Again Ed Broadbent is making way too much sense, and giving credit where it is due.

So it looks like the BC totals are:

17 Conservatives
9 Liberals
10 NDP

That's a drop of five for the Cons,
gain of one for the Libs,
gain of five for NDP

Appears that CTV has declared Liberal Blair Wilson elected in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country-Yes We Do Have the Longest Name of Any Riding in the Country.

David: I think Harper will do just that. He can count on voters'short memories if he puts his more moderate face back on later in his mandate.

I thought the NDP supporters booing Harper during Layton's speech was nice. The true colours of the NDP and it's supporters come out...real class acts.

Face it dippers..the NDP has not, and will not form gov't. I'd say ever. Harper is in, and Canada is better off as a result. It's about time!!

David
I think he'll roll back the GST, start electing the Senate, hand out his $1200/ child to parents and let folks write off $500 of sports expenses. THen he'll arrange a series of federal/provincial meetings and conferences so the provinces can present their shopping lists. THe most likely area of conflict will be over Native land claims and treaty negotiations. Maybe the First Nations will be the area where his philosophical stand actually gets smoked out for everyone to see. He probably wouldn't be willing to fight an election on that issue though. And of course he'll scrap the Gun Registry and transfer its budget to policing and crime.

I think tonight signals a shift of power to Calgary.

Flames beat the Oilers 3-1. Canucks lost to St Louis 4-zip.

Tom:

If Harper speaking French in Calgary is Trudeau's revenge, then Harper speaking as PM is Preston Manning's revenge.

poindexter
Do you remember what Harper called the NDP in his Montreal speech? Proof that the devil exists!! GIve me a break! If you can't take the heat and all that!

I was just listening to Mr Harper's speech, I had purposely stopped listening, reading or watching any election coverage (to play with my 6 year old son) so that I could view the materials with a clean perspective when I returned to them.

I had thought Harper had a majority in the part of his speech I heard, then I come to Tyee, read that PMPM is toast, see that the NDP could form a coalition with the Liberals (but to whom would he speak?) and realize that the reason for Harper speaking as though he had won a majority is that, in essence, for the next 14-18 months he does have a majority position.

David Beers is right about the 'gamesmanship' as PMPM did the same thing after his slim minority. The difference is this time the next major party has no leadership, it is still in organizational chaos, with the forces of Darth Cretien and the Martinites now cast to the winds to duke it out in public (finally an accounting of the shambles that these two left the Liberal Party in). This time the NDP has not a hope of pressing any buttons on the Conservatives, so long as they are willing to pay out to Quebec then the BQ 'gets its way'.

Whee!

I'd say the next referendum in PQ will be a landslide either one way or the other, and all will depend on Harper's way of working with or against the BQ, as they hold the 'true' balance of power now.

Global saying now that VanI North still up in the air, even though CTV had her declared elected two hours ago.
CBC seems to have declared her elected, too.

And PM PM Jr. resigning is Jean Chretien's revenge...

By "her" in Vancouver Island North, I mean Catherine Bell of the NDP.
I'm getting punchy...

Global also has Liberals taking West Van

Bell is still up by 400 in Van Isle North.

When we start looking at the real picture, all parties have lost.

As far Harper becoming animated when talking about war, people who haven't seen, experienced, or tried to pick up the aftermaths of war, are usually the most enthusiastic about its "glory"

All war lovers should try sitting in a foxhole, without food, or water for days, with shells dropping all around every few seconds, the wounded screaming hopelessly for help, waiting when a tank comes out of the darkness and smears them into the ground.

Ed Deak, Big Lake.

That's what Harper said to a June 1997 Montreal meeting of the Council for National Policy
- and you're upset by a few Boos - time to grow up!

It will be interesting to see how Harper will follow through on his elected senate promise.

Even if he had a majority, he would have to change the constitution to make real changes. Does he really want to reopen the constitutional debate?

Ha, ya just don't get it do ya G West?

He can just say that the Provinces will have to set up elections in order to produce new Senators to replace those who retire and or die in office - no need, I think, to change the Constitution to do that.

well Fiat lux barring everyone sharing the foxhole experience, perhaps a good dose of literature from "All Quiet on the Western Front" or "Seven Men of Gascony" would serve to keep us all reminded?

poindexter
You're the one who said you were upset because there were some NDP boos - I'm just pointing out that ad hominem attacks are far from unfamiliar to Harper and his gang of fellow travellers!

I give the Cons five months before their gov't falls. Anyone else?

I can't help but think that winning just 124 seats and 36 per cent of the vote in the face of a clearly tired, scandal-plagued and desperate Natural Governing Party is something less than a full triumph. What is it going to take for the Conservatives to form a majority government? I've got the same feeling for the NDP. The party has abandoned a circumstance in which it (almost) has the balance of power and is once again returned to questionable status as the fourth party in Parliament. As for the Liberals, they must feel as though the spanking from the headmaster was not nearly as bad as they expected.

what's the ndp so happy about anyway. 29/308 seats and 17% of the popular vote. big deal!

You're right Elliot, proportionally the NDP should have 52 seats!

If Harper simply appoints senators elected in the provinces, he will create a senate with a mix of elected and unelected senators – none of them having to face re-election.

That would not seem to add any more accountability to the upper chamber.

That's right, Tom. A bare minority. And, they can't stay hidden when in gov't.

G West--

Stop making sense, would ya.

glad to see you had such a pleasant evening redrivergirl. from here harper will take it easy and show the idiot torontonians that the fearmongering was ridiculous nonsense. he'll work with the minority house until the polls show that he can win a majority, which he will achieve in 2-3 years. wouldn't it be nice if it coincided with the b.c. liberals next victory?

Tonight's results are further proof why British Columbia voters should never be described as pragmatic. The tendency could have been to jump on a pollster-pundit Conservative surge for a taste of government. Instead, B.C. is the one region of the country in which the Conservatives suffered.

should a' could a' would a'. wake up g west. we don't have proportional representation.

Well in G West's mind then we should have at least 17 INDEPENDANT MP's!

Proportionally the Cons should have 110 and the Liberals 92. The old line parties (and, alas, the Bloc) are still the biggest winners. C'est la guerre.

5 months? C'mon redrivergirl. Who's going to take them down? The leaderless limping Liberals, or maybe the NDP with their 29 seats? Or maybe we would see a gallant Jack Layton, supporters not sure whether to boo and hiss or cheer as he leaps to the reigns of the Liberals and vanquishes the dark and evil conservatives in some sort of freakish mushy middle/frothing socialist frankenstein coalition.

Yeah, sure, something like that. I give them at least 2-3 years. It will take the Libs at least a year to find a new leader.

Elections Canada has Catherine Bell with an insurmountable lead in Vancouver Island North with two polls to report.

I see I'm late to where the real party's happening...

- Just a wild guess, but Harper may be able to draw BQ support if his first budget involves some major jurisdictional shifts to the provinces.

- David, thanks for the link to Confeederation! You're too kind.

- Did anyone else hear PMSH start his speech, "Merci beaucroup"?

- From where I sat, this was one more election where the talking-head commentary added next to nothing to the proceedings. The CBC tried something a little different with its café-style setup, but it just seemed kind of contrived and inanimate.

Still, maybe they're on to something. What if, next time, the set was a night club, and they got all the participants good and hammered beforehand? Then seat the big business shills next to the anti-poverty activists and roll camera. Ratings gold, baby.

typical lack of class by the ndp during the used-car salesman's speech. true colours.

Gee, I thought Mr Harper and his folks were really interested in reform - he mentioned it often enough. And yeah, we should have some independent members in the house.

Interesting that the Conservatives dropped five seats in BC (assuming they lose Van Island North) even though their popular vote barely moved. (It actually appears to have gone up one point.)

Meanwhile, the Liberal and NDP votes were also essentially unchanged in BC, yet the Libs gained one and the NDP gained five.

Elliot and Poindexter, you lost five seats here! Come on.

I don't think this gov't will last very long because there is no wisdom in it.

Also, Canadians are tired of elections, but a lot of Canadians really don't like Harper, as opposed to wanting their own party to win. And, even more dislike GWB's policies which as you well know are the same as the Con party's. This is a new dynamic for a prime minister. At least in the last 50 years.

Elliot
Could you tell me what's classy about Harper and his gang? They're all politicians! Don't forget it.

Folks, I think Steven Harper is literally screwed right now. The NDP and the Bloc may well only support them on an issue by issue basis. However, regardless of what we may think about the Bloc, other than separation they hold traditional liberal views on most other issues.

Harper can't move on a Triple E Senate without causing a furore in Quebec and probable separation. Quebec will not stand for a reduction in its' power base even if he leaves the Senate numbers where they are. It will be the perception of power loss.

If Harper attempts to transfer additional powers to the provinces, he will have Bloc support but the repercussions elsewhere in the country would likely work against him.
How is the heck is he going to be able to keep the right wingers like Betty Hinton, Cheryl Gallant etal quiet.

It is going to be an interesting few months until we are back at the polls.

With regard to Fleetwood Port Kells, I note that the Liberal vote went up while the Conservative Vote held, the NDP Vote declined and the Independent vote siphoned a lot of Anti-Nina votes. Make no mistake about it the votes taken by the independent were parked votes. A vote swing of approx. 2% would certainly have changed the outcome here. Considering there were about 7000 more votes cast than in the previous election and the Conservatives could only get about 400 does note bode well for them in the riding.

Having said all of this and considering that I will never during the rest of my lifetime ever vote Conservative again. I do consider that they ran a tight, well scripted campaign with enought leashes on their candidates to prevent the real Conservative viewpoints out into the open.

The next election campaign is already in the works.

Rob Cottingham! Fantastic IDEA!

Sort of makes the Cocktail Party of Vancouver Civic elections a real contender?

In Vino Veritas

redriver; many canadians don't like the image of harper that the liberal fearmongerers have presented to them. they have never had a chance to discover who this guy really is amidst all the innuendo and lies. in the next year they will discover that he is not at all scary or extreme and they will come to accept him. next time they'll get a majority. hope you enjoy it as much as tonight.

Rob Cottingham

Yep, I caught that too, the 'merci beaucroup' thing I mean.

StanM says, "Folks, I think Steven Harper is literally screwed right now."

Then let it not be said our new prime minister doesn't know how to celebrate.

Elliot, did you see his speech?

That was a very 'unCanadian speech', but it was a very GB type of speech. It was the wrong message to send all of Canada. God bless Canada only plays to his base and it is very reminiscent of GB.

G West, it's about class. In all the leader's speeches, they gave credit to the other leaders for a campaign well run, and their supporters politely applauded. During Layton's speech when he paid Harper credit, the NDP supporters booed and hissed the mention of Harper. That is piss poor and completely pathetic. Shows you the crowd you're dealing with, and you defending that just shows you are cut from true NDP cloth.

The same thing happened in North Island during the prov election, when Visser went to concede to Trevena at her victory party, he was booed by the NDP supporters there. Pathetic.

By the way redrivergirl I think you've been reading the Georgia Strait too much.