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How McMartin Sees BC: Tories 21, NDP 12, Libs 3

Plus, a gritty account of life inside The Tyee.

Will McMartin 20 Jan 2006TheTyee.ca
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It was Thursday, mid-morning. I had my feet on the desk and was watching the rain splash relentlessly on the city's streets. Mostly, I was thinking about the federal general election.

I'm a pundit. It's what I do.

Suddenly the office intercom crackled to life, and a voice that sounded like a wheelbarrow rolling down a gravel pathway roared through the static: "Take your feet off the desk and get in here!" And then a low snarl, "Now."

It was The Tyee's editor, David Beers. A bull-necked ex-marine with a flat-top haircut and an unlit cigar perpetually clenched between his teeth; it was rumoured that he'd done 'wet work' with special-ops squads in the'70's and '80's, targetting drug kingpins and rogue dictators. After being badly wounded in a botched raid on a general's palace somewhere in the tropics, he went to journalism school and got a diploma in news management. For the last couple of years, he's been running our newsroom like it was bootcamp at Parris Island, and Tyee staffers a bunch of pimply-faced recruits trying to survive six months of basic training. We're scared to death of him.

I raced up the stairs and breathlessly knocked on the open door to his office. "Siddown," he barked, pointing with the stogie at a chair in front of his desk. An instant later, a pile of newspapers and computer printouts came hurtling into my lap.

"Lookit," Beers demanded. "Seat projections for the federal election."

I clutched the papers, uncomprehending. Beers looked at me the way a pit bull stares at a mail carrier. "Where's ours?" he finally growled.

I answered quickly, too quickly, reminding him that in 2004, nearly every pollster and pundit in Canada had done seat projections - and most were wrong. Why, Ipsos-Reid did a forecast for the Globe and Mail which had the Conservatives forming a minority government with 117 seats.

Sheesh. Why would anyone want to willingly endure such embarrassment?

Beers cut me off with a derisive snort. "I don't want seat projections for the entire country," he spat. I was grateful that he didn't add 'moron' or 'dimwit' to the end of his sentence like he usually did, but I knew what he was thinking.

"Tyee readers wanna know who's gonna win the 36 seats in our province, British Columbia," he explained, grabbing a pencil and reaching for one of the yellow legal pads littering his desk.

"So, you're gonna tell me how B.C.'s ridings will go on election night, and I'll have one of the interns write a story based on your numbers. We'll post it on The Tyee website tomorrow morning and you can go back to day-dreaming in your office, staring out the window and watching the rain fall. Got it?" I smiled weakly.

Beers gripped the pencil in his meaty paw and started making notations and drawing columns on the writing pad. "Start with the popular vote," he ordered.

NDP to outpoll Libs

The Conservatives got 29.6% of the vote across Canada in 2004, but took 36.3% in B.C. Four years' earlier, in the 2000 general election, the Tories' predecessor, the Canadian Alliance, got 25.5% nationwide, but a whopping 49.4% in B.C.

It would not be surprising, therefore, if the Tories, on January 23, again received a higher share of the popular vote in B.C. than they get across Canada. And since national polls currently show them in the mid-to-high 30s, the Conservatives should take at least 40% of the west coast vote.

Indeed, seven national polls undertaken since New Year's have had the Conservatives with 35% or more of decided and leaning voters in B.C., and three of those had the party above 40%.

As for the Liberals, they've entered the last several federal elections with polls showing support from more than 30% of B.C. voters. But when the ballots were counted on election day, the Grits ended at 27 or 28%, a level they've been stuck at in each of the last four contests. In other words, Liberals poll higher during a campaign than they end with on election day.

What should worry the Liberals in the current campaign is that numerous polls since New Year's have put their party under 30% in B.C. - before votes have been cast. If this election is like the last four, Grit support will slip on January 23, and since they're starting from under 30%, they'll likely end up in the low-to-mid 20's.

Finally, there is no provincial New Democratic Party government in Victoria - a fact which should help federal NDP candidates.

There have been 14 federal general elections since the NDP was founded in 1961. In 10 of those tilts, the B.C. New Democrats were sitting on the opposition benches, and the federal wing garnered a respectable average of 32.8% of ballots cast in our province.

But it was a much different story in the four federal elections - 1974, 1993, 1997 and 2000 - when the provincial New Democrats were in power. In those contests, the federal party's average vote-share plummeted to an embarrassing 17%.

This year, with Paul Martin's Liberals slipping in the polls, and Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals entering their fifth year in power, the federal New Democrats ought to get about 30% of B.C. ballots.

"Wait a minute," Beers interrupted. "You're saying the Tories will get about 40% of the B.C. vote, the NDP about 30%, and the Liberals, no more than 25%?" I nodded in agreement.

He squinted at me, his eyes looking like gun slits in a tank turret. "So move on to the individual ridings, and start with the Liberals' seats," he hissed.

And then, raising his voice so that it sounded like a F-14 Tomcat taking off from the flight-deck of an aircraft carrier, he screamed: "And don't give me any of that namby-pamby, weak-kneed, cry-baby, 'too close to call' nonsense."

I coughed nervously and wiped at the perspiration collecting on my forehead.

The Liberal trio

Stephen Owen is a virtual shoo-in to win re-election in Vancouver Quadra, a riding the Grits have held since 1984.

Ujjal Dosanjh, the NDP turncoat who was handpicked by Paul Martin in 2004, will retain his Vancouver South seat mainly because neither the Conservatives nor the New Democrats have nominated candidates capable of defeating him.

And Hedy Fry, whose 12 years as MP for Vancouver Centre are memorable only for the incumbent's never-ending propensity for bone-headed gaffes, should prevail in a tough three-way fight with the Conservatives and NDP. Her margin of victory, however, will be hundreds of votes rather than thousands.

On the other hand, Keith Martin's 12-year tenure in the House of Commons looks set to end. Another turncoat, the Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca MP won election in 1993 and 1997 with the Reform party, was returned in 2000 with its successor, the Canadian Alliance, and briefly sat as a Conservative. He later bolted to Martin's Liberals and held his seat in 2004, albeit with just 35% of the vote. His likely successor is Randall Garrison, a New Democrat making his second consecutive bid for the seat.

Don Bell, the veteran municipal pol who won election as MP for North Vancouver 18 months ago, looks like toast. Cindy Silver, a Tory newcomer, should replace him.

More difficult to call are the races involving David Emerson in Vancouver-Kingsway, Raymond Chan in Richmond and David Anderson's old seat in Victoria.

Emerson is arguably the best and most effective MP our province has elected to the House of Commons in a long, long while. If politics - or life, for that matter - was 'fair,' he'd win an easy re-election on January 23. He may yet, but the tide is against him.

The likely victor in Vancouver-Kingsway is New Democrat Ian Waddell, a veteran seat-warmer whose lengthy political career - MP for Kingsway from 1979 to 1988; MP for Port Moody-Coquitlam, 1988-1993; and MLA for Vancouver-Fraserview, 1996-2001 - is notable more for its length than accomplishments.

Richmond's Chan, like his colleague Fry, usually gets publicity only when he's embroiled in a personal embarrassment. First elected as MP in 1993, he won re-election in 1997, succumbed to the Canadian Alliance in 2000, and then was returned by Richmond voters in 2004. This contest will be one of the closest two-party tilts in B.C. - Chan got 41.4% of the vote when he lost six years ago, and 44.5% when he regained the seat - but Conservative Darrel Reid should squeak past him.

Liberal veteran David Anderson is retiring after entering politics four decades ago - he first won election to the House of Commons in 1968 - and the contest to succeed him as MP for Victoria will be a tight, three-cornered affair. City councillor Denise Savoie should win the seat for the New Democrats, although it must be remembered that the NDP has captured Victoria just once, ever, when John Brewin prevailed with 38% of the vote in 1988.

I paused and Beers looked up from his notepad. He stared at me like I was something stuck to the bottom of his shoe. "Is that it?" he rasped. "Three seats for the Liberals?" I nodded.

"Then move on to the Conservatives," he said. "And hurry up. I ain't got all day."

21 seats for Conservatives

Conservative incumbents in B.C. will retain those seats they or the Canadian Alliance won in the last two general elections with a percentage of the popular vote that is equal to or higher than their province-wide average. For example, whereas the Alliance-Conservatives got 49.4% and 36.3% in B.C. in 2000 and 2004 respectively, Jay Hill took 69% and 58.7% in the same two contests.

A dozen Tory MPs fit that description, including five in the North and Interior: Hill in Prince George-Peace River; Jim Abbott in Kootenay-Columbia; Stockwell Day in Okanagan-Coquihalla; Dick Harris in Cariboo-Prince George; and Betty Hinton in Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo.

Another seven will hold their Lower Mainland seats: Chuck Strahl in Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon; Mark Warawa in Langley; Jim Cummins in Delta-Richmond East; Russ Hiebert in South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale; James Moore in Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam; and Randy Kamp in Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission.

Finally, on Vancouver Island, James Lunney should win re-election in Nanaimo-Alberni.

Then there are three Tory newcomers trying to succeed retiring Conservative MPs in ridings that match the above criteria. They include Edward Fast in Randy White's former riding of Abbotsford; Ronald Cannon in Kelowna-Lake Country, previously held by Werner Schmidt; and Colin Mayes, who will take over from Darrell Stinson in Okanagan-Shuswap.

That's 15 near-certain seats for the Tories.

Add to that two Conservative incumbents, Nina Grewal and Gary Lunn, who also should win re-election. Eighteen months ago, Grewal got just 35.8% of the vote in Fleetwood-Port Kells, and Lunn garnered a dismal 34.6% in Saanich-Gulf Islands, but the Conservative resurgence ought to lift both of them past the 40% mark - sufficient to prevail in the three and four-cornered contests in their respective ridings.

A couple of North Shore Tory newcomers - the aforementioned Silver in North Vancouver, and John Weston in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country - also should win election. Weston hopes to succeed veteran pol John Reynolds, who is retiring after more than three decades in public office.

Also mentioned earlier was Reid taking away Liberal Chan's Richmond riding.

That gives the Conservatives 20 B.C. seats.

Finally, two veteran Conservatives will be hard-pressed to retain their seats in this election. In 2004, John Duncan held Vancouver Island North with just 35.4% of the vote, and Paul Forseth won re-election in New Westminster-Coquitlam with a minuscule 32.9%.

It would be ironic if these two Tories, both of whom first won their Commons' seats in 1993, were to suffer defeat when their party was forming government. But in last year's provincial general election, the NDP captured New Westminster and Coquitlam-Maillardville in Forseth's district, and North Island in Duncan's, and it looks like the New Democrats are in the ascendancy in both areas.

A toss of a coin could call the outcome in either seat, but Duncan looks to have slightly better odds of winning re-election.

"Okay, got it," said Beers. "Twenty-one seats for the Conservatives. Now move onto the NDP and make it snappy."

NDP? An even dozen

Libby Davies has represented Vancouver East since 1997, and eighteen months ago won re-election with 56.5% of the vote. She's the closest thing to a lock for the New Democrats.

Also nearly certain to retain her seat is Jean Crowder, a political newcomer who captured Nanaimo-Cowichan in 2004 with 43.7%.

Three other NDP MPs first elected to the House of Commons eighteen months ago - Bill Siksay, Peter Julian, and Nathan Cullen - should win re-election, but must overcome stiff competition in the current contest.

Siksay in Burnaby-Douglas, and Julian in Burnaby-New Westminister, now have higher name-recognition than they had eighteen months ago, and since their main challengers are Liberals, both will benefit from a weakened Paul Martin. Cullen, in Skeena-Bulkley Valley, faces a formidable Conservative opponent: former Reform MP Mike Scott. The odds favour Cullen, but it will be close.

In short, the five NDP incumbents in B.C. should win re-election on January 23.

They will almost certainly be joined by two others: Penny Priddy in Surrey North, and Alex Atamanenko in British Columbia Southern Interior. Priddy, who held a Surrey seat in the provincial legislature for two terms, will succeed the late Chuck Cadman, who held the seat for the Reform and Alliance parties and as an Independent.

Atamanenko is replacing retired Reform-Alliance MP, Jim Gouk, a task made much easier by the Tories withdrawal of support for their one-time candidate, Derek Zeisman, who faces smuggling charges.

Plus, to reiterate earlier points, the New Democrats should be able to capture two Lower Vancouver Island ridings from the Liberals. Denise Savoie is expected to the take the retiring David Anderson's seat in Victoria, and Randall Garrison likely will defeat Keith Martin in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca.

A trio of very close races may well end with NDP victories. As mentioned above, Liberal David Emerson likely will lose Vancouver-Kingsway, the seat he's held for 18 months, to New Democrat Ian Waddell. Defeat, no doubt, would be a blessing for Emerson, who would chafe at being in opposition, while Waddell will be thrilled to once again be living on the taxpayers' dime.

Also, Tory Paul Forseth's time may have run out in New Westminster-Coquitlam, where former NDP MP Dawn Black is attempting a comeback after losing to Forseth in 1993. It will be close, but Black should have a small edge.

Finally, the closest three-way race in the province may be in Newton-North Delta, the seat formerly held by retired Reform-Alliance-Conservative MP Gurmant Grewal. New Democrat Nancy Clegg has a slight advantage insofar as the provincial NDP won Surrey-Newton and Delta North in last year's provincial general election.

"That's a dozen for the NDP," Beers stated, toting up the various columns on his notepad.

He finished writing and quickly reached over to the intercom, hit a button and barked: "Send an intern in here. Now." Then he slowly turned back toward me and asked in a quiet, menacing tone: "So you're saying three Liberals, 21 Conservatives, and 12 NDP?" I nodded silently.

"You better be right," he rasped. Then, jerking his thumb toward the hallway, he concluded our meeting. "Now get outta here. Scram."

It's a living

I got back to my office and closed the door. Reaching down into the bottom drawer of my desk, I took out a half-empty bottle of scotch and a coffee mug, and poured myself a stiff one.

Then, leaning back, I put my feet on the desk and stared out at the rain still falling on the city streets.

Could a Tory landslide give them Vancouver-Centre? How about Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, or Victoria, or New Westminster-Coquitlam, or Newton-North Delta? Is it possible that the polls are wrong, and the Liberals are going to hold all eight of their B.C. seats? How likely is it that the NDP caucus from B.C. will more than double?

I couldn't stop thinking about the federal general election.

I'm a pundit. It's my job. It's what I do.

Will McMartin is a regular columnist for The Tyee, for now.

Plus, a gritty account of life inside The Tyee.  [Tyee]

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