Opinion

Harper's Aussie Advisor

Lessons from the hardliner down under.

By Richard Warnica, 16 Jan 2006, TheTyee.ca

johnhoward

The Globe and Mail reported last Saturday that Stephen Harper's campaign team is borrowing ideas and getting regular advice from their opposites in Australian Prime Minister John Howard's camp.

The report startled me.

Howard is best known outside of Australia for joining the invasion of Iraq, dropping the Kyoto Protocol and keeping hordes of migrants locked in harsh detention camps; hardly policies you'd think the evolved Harper wants to be associated with.

Less well known outside of Australia - but fiercely debated when I was there last August - are Howard's labour market reforms. Passed in December, the reforms will gradually eliminate collective bargaining rights and make it much easier for Australian employers to hire, fire and negotiate with their workers.

Winning formula?

Of course, just because Howard's team is advising Harper doesn't mean a Harper government would be a mirror image of those led by the Aussie PM.

But our countries are so similar that I can't help wondering how Howard has done it. He's won four straight elections and been in power for 10 years, something no Canadian conservative has ever done. It's not that Australia is more conservative than Canada; Australian Labour, a party arguably left of the NDP, dominates state politics down under. So if Harper really is following Howard's model, could this be the beginning of a new conservative dynasty in Canada?

To find out more about Howard's rise, I called Australian political scientist Campbell Sharman. The correlation, Sharman told me, isn't perfect. Since the Bali bombings in 2001, Australians have had to contend with terrorism in a way Canadians simply haven't. And when it comes to security, Sharman said, Australians consistently prefer Howard to the left-wing Labour Party.

Australia also doesn't have an equivalent of Canada's Liberals. There's no real centre party, so Australian elections are more like contests between Stephen Harper and Jack Layton, than between Harper and Paul Martin.

But three things Sharman pointed out about Howard struck me as being pretty similar to Harper.

Wooing 'the mortgage belt'

In Australia, the competitive seats are in the suburbs, what Sharman called the "mortgage belt" that surrounds the major Australian cities. Howard wins elections by winning those voters.

Ditto for Harper. If Harper becomes prime minister on January 23, it will be because he picked up seats in the vast burbs that surround Toronto. In B.C., too, the competitive seats are in suburbs like Surrey, Burnaby and Richmond and not in the opposite polls of urban Vancouver and rural Prince Rupert. If the suburbs permanently abandon the Liberals, Harper could be living on Sussex drive for a very long time.

The second thing Sharman told me is that Howard consistently follows his own advice even when everyone else has thought it was political suicide. (Howard ran his second election campaign promising to introduce a Goods and Services tax, not what you'd call the prototypical vote-getting policy.)

The same is true for Harper. In his 20-year rise from graduate student to probable prime minister, Harper has been written off more times than I can remember. He has always been considered too right-wing, too radical, too cold and too un-charismatic to win the country's biggest prize. But it looks like he'll do it, anyway.

Just think back to the first day of the campaign. When Harper's first press conference included a promise of a free vote on same-sex marriage, pundits galore called him an idiot, and predicted a campaign dominated his social policy views. Hasn't happened; by getting same-sex marriage out of the way early and bombarding the media with a policy a day, Harper has set the agenda. I read most major Canadian papers every day and for most of the campaign they've all had at least a story a day on a new Harper policy.

But the one thing Sharman told me about Howard that struck me as being most similar to Harper wasn't the his dominance in the burbs, or his confidence in his own judgment. It was that Howard has continued to win largely because his opponents continue to lose.

Bumbling opponents

Australian voters have endorsed Howard again and again, even while poll numbers show they don't support a lot of his policies, because his rivals in the Australian Labour Party have yet to manage an effective campaign against him.

It doesn't take a political genius to see the correlation with Harper. Sure the Tories have run a good campaign. But I'd bet lots of Conservative voters next Monday won't be voting for the Conservatives so much as they are against the Liberals.

Last Friday alone, the Liberals had to dump a candidate in a riding for allegedly trying to bribe one of his opponents, had a senior minister implicated in a shady real estate deal, and had the Deputy Prime Minister, a constitutional scholar, admit that Paul Martin hadn't told her about his plan to dump the Notwithstanding Clause before announcing it during the leaders' debate. That's enough bad news for an entire campaign; what's sad is that Friday was no worse really, than any other day that week.

So, like Howard voters in Australia, many of Harper's supporters won't be expressing support for the Conservative agenda, or even a rejection of the Liberal one, when they tick the Tory box, they'll just be expressing distaste for the Liberals themselves.

Of course, if Harper wins next Monday, people aren't likely to care much if he did it by campaigning like John Howard. They might care, though, if he starts governing like him.

The question is, when the next election comes, will the Liberals have done enough to make it about Stephen Harper's policies, and not about their own incompetence?

Richard Warnica is managing editor of The Tyee's Election Central.  [Tyee]

40  Comments:

Login or register to post comments

  • rebel

    6 years ago

    Comments on "Harper's Aussie Advisor"

    I for one do not think he has evolved and its interesting that the powerful neocons in Washington such the Weekly Standard that's editor is Bill Kristol one of the signatures on the Project for the New American Century (PNAC.INFO.COM) and very influencial in the White House in promoting the Iraq invasion. Anyway as they keep track of our election there is an article "MORNING IN CANADA?" that says in the last paragraph "the table is set for Stephen Harper. He can change the course of Canadian policy and North American politics.

    Also Stockwell Day was on Israel National Radio saying that if Harper is elected Canada will finally become a staunch ally to Israel. This was reported in the Israpundit and can be seen by googling: STOCKWELL DAY ON ISRAEL RADIO
    <
    I would like to know exactly what these things will mean for Canada but they are not being reported and media reporters don't ask any serious policy questions and especially Foreign Policy questions. The only reporter I have seen even mention foreign policy was Rick Salutin in the Globe and Mail a couple of days ago. The reporting or lack of it is a disgrace, especially when this election if Harper wins could turn our country (which is in pretty good shape right now) upside down. I would love to be wrong on this one but can't help a feeling of dread.

  • rebel

    6 years ago

    Another thing - both Martin and Layton have attended a meeting and taken questions from the audience but Harper still won't accept an invitation. Also the Sunday show with Evan Solomon has issued several inviitiation to him to come on the show but he won't - I bet he will try to operate like Bush who also hates the press and is called the most isolated President in history.

    Another important fact that is kept out of the papers is the fact that he won his suit against the govt in June 2004 which allows lots of corporate lobby money in elections. Google: AN UGLY COURT VICTORY FOR THE NATIONAL CITIZENS COALITION
    <
    nupge.ca/news_2002/news_de02/n17de02a.htm

  • rebel

    6 years ago

    Those shows were on the CBC - I wonder if he will try to get rid of our national broadcasting co.???

  • Former BC Boy

    6 years ago

    Bang on REBEL.
    A "Rebel Yell" (Billy Idol) is certainly needed!

    I've just mailed my overseas vote and yes it wsan't for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives!

    If Harper wins a majority I guess I'll be happy to stay in Korea a little longer. Especially with Gordo and the Lieberals at the provincial level too.

    I really wish for not just electoral reform, but to be quite frank the end of all politics!
    It sucks!

    Kevan Hudson
    South Korea

  • Colin

    6 years ago

    Yes
    The aussie model, confiscating pump action shotguns from farmers while Lebanese’s gangs machine gun police stations.

  • Elliot

    6 years ago

    sounds like a good place for you former bc boy. pump it up tyee. you're outdoing yourself this time. will every article between now and the election regard a smear-campaign and fearmongering? perhaps you should try talking about what the other parties might do for the country every once in a while beers.

  • redrivergirl

    6 years ago

    In Australia they have incited Racism and Howard's policies around immigration have helped him.

    The reason oppositions have failed to be effective in these times is because many in the opposition are for free-trade and others have been afraid. They lack the courage to stand up against these people because they've witnessed the smear, bully tactics. Those who are for free-trade won't rock the boat. Especially when their campaign doners don't want them too.

    The people need a leader who'll starting calling it like it is. That means rocking the establishment.

  • redrivergirl

    6 years ago

    want them to...

  • Michael Clift

    6 years ago

    Elliot:

    Yes. Every article from now to election day will have the same "spin".

    Could you please provide me with a link to your blog so I can read some more of your witty discourse. I also really appreciate the drive-by-smearing's lack of capitalization.

    If you don't currently have a blog you can turn the whole non-capitalization issue to your favor. Call your blog: "capitals are for punishment not punctuation".

  • DennisG

    6 years ago

    Mr. Harper has come up with a number of attractive policies along with some real clunkers. But policy does not seem to affect the voters choices much.

    The Liberals' have been the issue. Not the Liberal record which Mr. Harper promise to contine in large part, not the promised platforms have made a difference to voters.

    The undefended charges of wrong-doing against the Liberals have turned the election into an, "anyone but the Liberals" decision for most voters.

    That is why we know so little and care so little about what kind of government Mr.Harper might provide. He has convinced us to ignore his policies and vote against the corruption of the Liberals based on allegations that have never resulted in any charges against any Liberal caucus member.

    So it doesn't matter that he has advisors from the USA and Australia. It doesn't matter what he believes or what he will do. All that matters to Canadians is that he is not a Liberal.

    That is the informed choice we appera to be making.

  • Frank

    6 years ago

    Quote:
    But the one thing Sharman told me about Howard that struck me as being most similar to Harper wasn't the his dominance in the burbs, or his confidence in his own judgment. It was that Howard has continued to win largely because his opponents continue to lose.

    The problem with Richard's article is that the Libs have been in power for 13 years. By implication that means the Cons have continued to lose for 13 years. So how is there any connection between a guy who hasn't actually won anything yet and a dynasty like Howard's?

  • ripponfalls

    6 years ago

    Does this mean that Harper is going to make Canada part of the willing? Troops to Iraq?

    Only one problem: we don't have any troops. Just as the Americans are having great difficulty recruiting because most potentials don't want to end up in body bags or crippled, so I suggest that any Canadian attempt to create new military units to send to Iraq (or calling up the reserves) will not meet with much success.

    Have faith, folks! Keep repeating to yourselves: "Stockwell Day, the next minister of foreign affairs, believes the world is 6000 years old and that Adam and Eve rode to church on the back of a dinosaur"

    It is not enough to get elected! You have to do something right when in office. Conservatives have a well deserved reputation for shooting themselves in the feet, and I have faith that the new boy on the block is going to find out that one college degree does not a government make.

    R. Smiley

  • Elliot

    6 years ago

    just heard on the cbc that there's a direct correlation between the decline of the liberal's popularity and the sale of depends. looks now like the maritimers, who have traditionally been the most opportunistic and least principled voters in the country, are turning blue as it becomes more likely that the tories will win next election. can you say majority?

  • lynn

    6 years ago

    Quote:
    like the maritimers, who have traditionally been the most opportunistic and least principled voters in the country, wrote Elliot

    .

    Ah, Elliot...you are a true blue Harper boy, aren't you. What a smug, bigoted little bastard you are.

  • Elliot

    6 years ago

    only someone who knows absolutely nothing about the political and social history of this nation could view that observation as a bigoted statement lynn. perhaps you should go out and actually learn something sometime. otherwise quit wasting my time with such ridiculous claims.

  • Michael Clift

    6 years ago

    Lynn: Good comment. I could almost hear Elliot use a capital letter.

  • Elliot

    6 years ago

    good comment? hope you're not using your real name here.

  • lynn

    6 years ago

    Nope, Bigoted, with a capital B, Elliot.

    When you smear a whole group of people you reveal your prejudices...just as Harper did in his derogatory comment about Maritimers.

    Such disregard and disrespect...and such hypocrisy as you make a play for their vote...

    "opportunistic and least principled", you say...look in the mirror..but don't scare yourself.

  • Ron Erwin

    6 years ago

    I was kind of surprised that the Lib didn't bring in some heavy hitters from The Democratic Party to strategize on this election, maybe John Carey, Ted Kennedy or Michael Moore. But, oh I forgot, they are losers who couldn't come up with an original idea to save their wretched souls.

  • Frank

    6 years ago

    Ron, just out of curiousity, what original idea do you think you or any righty here or anyone in Harper's party has come up with in the past year or two?

    I'm just curious since you beat this drum all the time.

  • Elliot

    6 years ago

    lynn; you won't go far with that one darling. educated people actually know the history of voting patterns in the maritimes, as do the maritimers themselves. today pei's premier was urging islanders to vote conservative b/c they will be holding power. nothing new here. very customary. glad i could help with your education. pass it on to 'michael clift'.

  • Ron Erwin

    6 years ago

    Frank, reduce the GST by 27% from 7% to 5%.
    Give parents with children under 6 years old $1,200.00 per child for childcare.
    there are two, but sorry I got to go to the Pub and whatch the Edmonton Oiler game, I will talk to you later.

  • Michael Clift

    6 years ago

    Hey Elliot:

    Is it coincidence that you can only capitalize your own name? Or are you really that self-centred and is that where your voting pattern comes from?

    You should contact Elsie Wayne and discuss her fellow Atlantic Canadians lack of convictions. I've never heard anyone stand up and yell as loud as she did spouting hatred for gay people.

    You claim to educated, but in reality you are an ignorant troll. An anonymous ignorant troll at that.

  • ripponfalls

    6 years ago

    Ron, do you even know who John Carey [sic] is?

  • Frank

    6 years ago

    Quote:
    Frank, reduce the GST by 27% from 7% to 5%. Give parents with children under 6 years old $1,200.00 per child for childcare.

    Ron, with all due respect, the Cons were elected in 1984 and later brought in a 7% GST. Deciding 22 years later to reduce that to 5% is not grounds for claiming original thought.

    Also, after a 13+ year debate about child-care and a Liberal promise to create a national child care plan repeated and never implemented for all 13 of those years, I somehow doubt deciding on a tax break instead qualifies as original thought either.

  • The brain

    6 years ago

    Traditionally opportunistic and unprincipled... yah. That sounds like a Conservative to me, at least, its what they call themselves now after shedding their skin so many times.

  • dangrice.com

    6 years ago

    I think these last two articles are pretty poor, as well as most of the articles on Harper. They keep on quoting "rhetorical parts" of past speeches without actually examining the effects of the policy.

    Harper has no hidden agenda, its clear and has been, and we don't need to talk about evolution of his thoughts. For certain, his campaign has evolved as has his PR skills, but his core principles haven't changed. However, as a potential leader of the country, I think he realizes that what is best for ALberta is not best for Canada.

    Rather than focussing on the myths, there is plenty of real information to go after:

    CPC plans to roll back drug decriminalization
    The jurisdictional rights of provinces versus the federal government.
    Equalization formulas.
    Military spending and value.

    And many more.

  • Mike B

    6 years ago

    Quote:
    CPC plans to roll back drug decriminalization

    Lets clear this one up. It wasn't "drug" decrim, it was just for marijuana. The bill never happened, it just kept getting pushed back. Many anti-prohibitionists consider this a good thing, as the bill failed to address the entire issue of a black market, and targeted the wrong things. Where today I can smoke a joint on any street in Vancouver, if decrim had passed, I could get a ticket for it!

    What the conservatives will do is toughen the laws for non-violent drug offenders, just as America has. Forget a fine and community service, it's time to fill up the jails with those dangerous pot smokers!

  • Ron Erwin

    6 years ago

    Mike,
    I don't think that a priority of the Con is to throw every pot smoker in jail.
    Why would they go through all the hassle to do this, when they have already and very clearly said that they are after dangerous criminals.
    Now if you have commercial, large scale pot growing operation, and your distributors are involved with organized crime, who trade pot for gun's you should be in trouble brother.
    So relax, we know that the pot world isn't going to change anytime soon.
    We don't need Government involved in anymore stuff unless they have a clear, scientific, consensus building idea that doesn't involve the Supreme Court to wipe their bummies.

  • dangrice.com

    6 years ago

    HI Ron,

    There is two things that would make me believe that you are incorrect. First, Harper's Burkean viewpoints (Right Agenda, 2003):

    "This descent into nihilism should not be surprising because moral relativism simply cannot be sustained as a guiding philosophy. It leads to silliness such as moral neutrality on the use of marijuana or harder drugs mixed with its random moral crusades on tobacco. It explains the lack of moral censure on personal foibles of all kinds, extenuating even criminal behaviour with moral outrage at bourgeois society, which is then tangentially blamed for deviant behaviour. On the moral standing of the person, it leads to views ranging from radical responsibility-free individualism, to tribalism in the form of group rights. "

    Secondly from the 2006 the Conservative Platform:

    "The Liberals have put Canada on the road to drug legalization. This must stop."

    CPC will:
    "Prevent the decriminalization of marijuana."
    "End house arrests and ensure mandatory minimum prison sentences and large monetary fines for serious drug offenders, including marijuana grow operators"

  • Ron Erwin

    6 years ago

    dangrice,
    You said it " serious drug offenders, including marijuana grow operators "
    I take that to mean ' serious grow operations "
    That is what they mean, no pot for drugs, can I make it anymore simple.

    The first quotation you posted, if you can figure it out, please let me know what you think it means, because I don't.

  • Elliot

    6 years ago

    in fact i'm quite well educated 'michael clift'. btw; you seem to be fairly hung-up on capitalization. perhaps you should be spending less time on that and more time on trying to figure out what the hell you're talking about. do you actually know anything about atlantic canada and their voting patterns, or are you just here to spout liberal blather? of all people on this site you should be anonymous to protect your stupidity.

  • Chuck Dickens

    6 years ago

    Hello there Ron Erwin;

    How do you imagine that the $1200.00 Conservative benefit will be supplied to "families" in Bountiful. Do you believe that this will be a socially responsible expenditure of our hard-earned taxpayer dollars?

  • Ron Erwin

    6 years ago

    Chuck, great question. I know the Conservative Party knew that your question would come up.
    I think their answer might be ' we knew that the logical extension to the Same Sex Marriage legislation might lead to swingers and polygamy.
    Without prejudice you were told that this would lead to a lot of other issues coming up.
    So I guess if everything remained the same in Law, these poly's would clean up in dollars.

  • verso

    6 years ago

    "Chuck, great question."

    Funny, because you haven't answered the question, Ron. So again, "Do you believe that this will be a socially responsible expenditure of our hard-earned taxpayer dollars?"

    "Without prejudice you were told that this would lead to a lot of other issues coming up."

    News flash, Ron... polygamy, swingers and the issues surrounding them were around before the same sex debate. Why is it only an issue because it followed the same sex debate?

    I've also heard there are people who have sex with animals, there must be some way to blame the gays for that one too, eh Ron? Better yet, you can pin it on the Liberals...

  • dangrice.com

    6 years ago

    Hi Ron,

    Harper's adoption of social conservatism is complexing. In one sentence he will espouses the notions of freedom, and individual choice, but then he condemns those who choose to live that way. He will condemn the federal government interference in local issues, but will preserve social interference. He will hold up the torch for personal independence, but condemns individualism. He will argue against tribalism and group rights, but will extend religious organizations the very same rights that he would wish to deny others. He will try to protect the family against the interference of the public government, but will go so far as to use the federal government to maintain traditional family values.

    Whatever steps he will take will be incremental, but by trying to fight against "the left wing agenda", he risks taking a divergent path for the sake of protest. Its hard to tell, sometimes, whether he actually believes everything he has to say or whether he is pulling out the morality trump card just to solidify his base. However, by trying to fight against social deviancy, he has failed to realize that deviancy thrives on rejection, that prohibition leads to criminal activity, that fighting against gay rights provides fuel to the small activist members in the community and fails to resolve normalization and overall cohesiveness in society. By fighting against a redistributive economy, we will limit economic expansion resulting from the buying power of the mass, and that domestic markets benefit far greater from low income spending. By focussing on crime punishment rather than crime causes, we are bearing more detainment costs and less rehabilitiation.

  • ocean44

    6 years ago

    hey, what will happen to the CBC if harper and the cons are elected?

  • Elliot

    6 years ago

    not much. we still need it. what would the lefties do without it?

  • Former BC Boy

    6 years ago

    Hello Elliot !

    It's always a pleasure to see people insult others without using their real names.
    It must take you...what two beers...no, six beers to get your courage up!

    At least some of the conservatives will argue a point, but you my sweet man...well I can tell that you are a good heckler at hockey games! USA sucks, eh?

    Enjoy your victory! Though I think it will be a minority government that will last one to two years!

    As they say...
    "It is better to have loved and lost than to be a bloody b*****d!

    Kevan Hudson (yes, my real name)
    South Korea
    Formerly Richmond, BC

  • Elliot

    6 years ago

    like i said former. sounds like a good place for you. btw; i don't drink. and i cheered for the american junior team. minority this time, just until the idiot ontarians finally realize the the conservatives won't be extreme. majority next time and probably for some years to come. you might want to make long term plans to stay there. working in an international school are you?

    • No best comments selected by an editor for this story yet. To see all comments, click the All Comments tab, above.
    • The discussion for this story is closed. No more comments can be added.