Martin Badly Needs a Break

The question in the federal election posed by the Martin Liberals, simply put, is this: Is Stephen Harper too scary to be prime minister? Unhappily, for the Grits, the answer, more and more as time passes, seems to be NO! In fact, the public seems to be saying, "No matter now scary Stephen Harper may be, we've had it with you lot, so out you go."

The danger in the "scare" argument is that it doesn't take into account the fact that for a sizeable part of the electorate, Harper doesn't go far enough. Remember that there is one Canadian pro-life website that gets 5 million hits a month! It also doesn't take into account that many Canadians of no particular political bent see the old-fashioned values preached by the Tories as something they like to hear. They've heard enough of "liberalism" which doesn't seem to hold anyone accountable for anything any more.

Law and order is big with most city dwellers and while Paul Martin has belatedly become interested, most people think, whether they agree with all the methodology implied, that the Tories co-opted this issue long ago.

Lib largesse backfires

Paul Martin has another big problem. Every time he promises another million here, another billion there, it reminds voters of how his government spent millions on crooks who, in exchange for the dough, supported the Liberals.

Finally, Martin must hear the Tories remind voters more and more that he made all his millions by using a tax haven to avoid Canadian taxes.

I've talked here about the X factor which, simply put, is an overarching gut feeling in the tummies of enough voters to matter that, regardless of the "official" issues, "We're going to throw the bastards out."

When this X factor is in play, it drives politicians, pundits and pollsters alike to the comfort of strong drink. "Dammit," they mutter under their breath, "can't those idiots out there see that the big issue is health care? … or education? … or immigration? The very issues we've told them to care about?"

Pollsters, who consistently ask the wrong questions, can't believe it when a 1957/58 Diefenbaker, a 1984 Mulroney, or a 1993 Chretien comes along. In all three of those cases, the government had a healthy lead in the early polls. In none of those cases did the pollsters ask "when all is said and done, are you pissed off, I mean really pissed off, with the government?" Had they asked those questions in 1958, 1984 and 1993, they wouldn't have been so shocked at the election results. They don't teach those sorts of questions at Pollster School, but maybe they should start.

The right question

Before going on, it must be observed that Jack Layton, stout chap though he is, is busy selling last week's paper in hopes that someone might find it worthwhile looking at. This isn't to say that the NDP won't pick up a handful of seats - they may -- but it is to say he's like the little kid trying to get on the team with the big kids. No matter how much he points to himself, or shouts about his skills, the big kids won't let him play.

The Green Party, for which I will vote, can only hope to increase its overall vote enough to qualify for more election bucks with which to increase their efforts to strike a more responsive chord with the public.

It's a two horse race and the pre-race favourite stumbled coming out of the gate, has not recovered its gait and, indeed, is falling farther behind the challenger.

Am I saying that Paul Martin will lose? Only a damned fool would be so dogmatic. There's too much time left to start inviting post-election dinners of warmed over crow.

What I do say is that to turn this thing around, Martin needs a lucky break, big time. Otherwise, Stephen Harper will be the next prime minister. And, are you ready for this? He may even have a majority.

Rafe Mair writes a Monday column for The Tyee. His website is www.rafeonline.com.