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Three Billion Watch the Games? That's Crazy Talk

Hey, lots will tune in. But number claimed by IOC and politicians deemed absurd by experts.

By Geoff Dembicki, 11 Feb 2010, TheTyee.ca

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Organizers and government partners of the 2010 Winter Games like to talk big. Three billion TV viewers for the duration of the Olympics, they say. Or was that three billion for the opening ceremonies alone?

Both scenarios are misleading at the very least, an expert in television viewership told The Tyee Wednesday.

And the notion that half the world will tune in for day-one of the Olympics is plain hyperbole, said Robert Thompson, founding director of the Bleier Center for Television and Popular Culture at Syracuse University. "Those numbers strike me as awfully high," he said.

Whopping predictions


This Friday, the Olympics will open to global fanfare. Organizers have promised a spectacular ceremony and a huge viewing audience. A 2007 VANOC press release called the opening day spectacle "an event of historic importance" that will unfold in front of a "world audience of three billion."

The Government of Canada reiterates the same impressive numbers. 
 In a recent Vancouver Sun op-ed, Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson suggested three billion TV viewers during the Games.

International Olympic Committee president Jacques Rogge gave the same projections in a Tuesday speech, repeating the "record number" that has been cited in news stories.

Under the first scenario, half the world watches the opening day festivities at B.C. place.

To put that in context, Thompson said, about one third of Americans tuned in for the last Superbowl. It was a television ratings record.

It's extremely unlikely Vancouver's opening ceremonies would trump those numbers in the U.S., Thompson said. And if half the States isn't watching, he said, how likely that half the world will?

IOC produced three billion figure


"My guess is that marketing of the Olympics is like the marketing of anything else, and the idiom of the day is hyperbole," Thompson said.


He found the second scenario -- three billion viewers over the course of the Games -- more plausible, if a little disingenuous. Given our globalized, media-saturated world, he said it's possible half the planetary population will be exposed to the 2010 Olympics in some way. But that could mean walking by a public TV set, or hearing mention of it on the radio. 


"There's a big difference between that and the people who will be actively consuming broadcasts on a regular basis during the course of the Games," Thompson said. 


Last December, an anonymous B.C. Winter Games Secretariat official said the three billion figure comes from the IOC. It applies for the duration of the Games, not the opening ceremonies. 


That hasn't been entirely clear in recent media reports which still claim the huge number for day one of the Games.

European study zeroes in on logic flaw


A 2006 study from the European Tour Operators Association concluded that TV viewership projections for the Olympics are based on potential total audiences, not actual viewers. 


"It is like judging an individual book's popularity by counting how many people live near book shops or who have access to public libraries," it read.


Over time, tentative estimates become fact, said Joe Weiler, a University of British Columbia law professor and member of the school's Olympic Studies Research Team.


"These figures get tossed around until they become conventional wisdom and then nobody actually thinks about it," he said. [Tyee]

Geoff Dembicki reports for The Tyee.

44 Comments:

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  • RickW

    2 years ago

    They have no choice.....

    ....but to hype the games.

    I mean, who exactly believes in a literal sense what the game promoters say WILL happen......? That is like believing in Gordon Campbell's "Golden Decade". Nobody took that literally...........did they?

  • Scorpio49

    2 years ago

    Statistics

    There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

  • mystified

    2 years ago

    Welcome World?!@#$%^&

    That's the presumptious announcement in front of Vancouver buses today. What sheer ignorance!

    Barely 35% of nations in the world are participating, so certainly not WORLD!

    Lets put it this way: 100% of Euro-dominant countries are participating. Others? Not so much.

  • Dungeness_Crab

    2 years ago

    Wasn't it Goebbels

    who said, "the bigger the lie the easier the people will believe it?"

    Or words to that effect....?

  • MacKenna

    2 years ago

    Anyone else massively dissapointed by Gregor?

    This is the guy who thinks the housing crisis will be solved by building apartments the size of two parking spaces that still cost a ridiculous amount of money to live in; as well garages converted into homes. I'm surprised the man hasn't advocated the building of tree houses, but don't give him any ideas.

    Apparently Gregor is fit to run a juice company but not a city.

  • funniously

    2 years ago

    Who cares?

    This is non-story about a non-verifiable number.

  • Dan the socialist

    2 years ago

    The world cup in South

    The world cup in South Africa starting in June may draw close to 30 billion and according to FIFA 26.4 billion watched the last one in 2006 that took place in Germany. http://www.fifa.com/aboutfifa/marketing/factsfigures/tvdata.html but this is the biggest event in the World though and even makes the Superbowl viewership look very minute..

  • verso

    2 years ago

    who cares?

    Obviously you, who took the time to read and comment.

  • southdeltawalker

    2 years ago

    78% say NO to the Olympics.

    Our local paper has an on line poll "are you looking forward to the Olympics?", so far 78% have said no.
    I guess they won't be part of the 3 billion watchers.

  • RickW

    2 years ago

    Dungeness_Crab

    Either him, or PT Barnum, of "sucker born every minute" fame...........

  • srfl

    2 years ago

    Goebbels

    ....also said, "if you repeat a lie often enough, it beomes the truth."

    It's worked for Campbell.

  • Van Isle

    2 years ago

    If the IOC wants to have

    If the IOC wants to have more viewers just let the protesters do "their thing" and let the police "do their thing". Now the games will become a news item, not a sports item. Guaranteed, there will be more viewers.

  • Jeffrey J.

    2 years ago

    Three Billion a direct quote

    A "world audience" of three billion.

    "VANCOUVER, February 22, 2008 – The Opening Ceremony for the 2010 Olympic Winter Games is an event of historic importance that presents Canada with a once-in-a-generation opportunity to tell a story that inspires a world audience of three billion. "

    http://www.vancouver2010.com/olympic-news/n/news/vancouver-2010-opening-ceremony-“to-inspire-the-world”-thanks-to-top-canadian-creative-talent-and-financial-support-from-the-government-of-canada_36724rA.html

    I call that hype of the highest order.

    Great article from BC's greatest independent media site.

  • freebear

    2 years ago

    Yea, billions eh!

    India, a big country, estimated 1.15 billion people; didn't even buy their winter National Olympic team uniforms!

    How many Indians do you think will watch the winter games!?

    Also most winter sports require money for equipment, facilities, transportation.

    How many 3rd world countries have a winter olympics team?

    3 billion tv viewers, yeah right!

    More people have eaten a McFastFood burger than watch the winter olympics!

    I heard a German reporter saying bthat many Canadians he had spoken too think of the winter olympics as a hockey tournament with some ski sports on the side!

    3 billion (yeah right!) will watch the skiers in the rain skiing through the fog!

  • alive

    2 years ago

    anywhere but BC

    Yeah, people from all over the world are watching and very pleased that this event is not happening in their country!

  • Chris Keam

    2 years ago

    suspect statistics

    NBC claims 200 million total for the whole games.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2010/01/28/nbc-expects-200-million-viewers-to-watch-the-vancouver-olympics/tab/article/

    A news story yesterday on CBC or Global (I forget which) said Olympic organizers are claiming 15 million people have turned out to watch the torch relay. Seems like rather a high estimate to me... that half of Canada has attended a leg of they torch relay in their area.

    If VANOC et al had been as generous in their security budget estimates as their projected viewership, we would have had far less reason to complain about being fed misinformation from the organizers!

  • Ramona777

    2 years ago

    Mexicans Don't Give a D

    I recently returned from various Mexican cities and there wasn't a single mention of the Olympics. You can pretty well expect the Southern Hemisphere to ignore these games.
    Sure lots of little homes and huts have TVs but they watch soccer and soap operas, not some white guys hurtling down mountains in a luge.
    I can't imagine the billions in India and China tuning in en masse.
    These games are for the entitled, spoiled Western world which continues to deceive itself about its self-importance.

  • mcdull

    2 years ago

    Hype

    All you had to do was listen to Bill Boring this morning between 8:30 and 9 AM. What I call yellow journalism. Now the newspapers would not put numbers to the crowds as the torch went up Island but some of the Owely boosters said numbers were disappointing. Bill said the torch travelled before huge crowds everywhere. Wow a crowd of 2500 in a town of about 25000 is huge? Of course as a good journalist he became part of the story by carrying the torch. No bias at all for his free ads to promote the Owelympics.

  • verso

    2 years ago

    a slightly off topic prediction

    If the games turn out to be a disaster (on any front) you can be sure CTV, CKNW, Canwest and yes, even CBC will declare them a success. Obviously, our local media stands to lose most if these games fail to deliver and torch running news anchors will do anything to save face.

    BTW, I've been most disappointed with CBC's coverage to the lead up to the games – they go great lengths to avoid the most controversial aspects of these games. Very disappointing.

  • verso

    2 years ago

    oh, and...

    Thumbs up for the Tyee's coverage so far!

    ; )

  • Jerry Munro

    2 years ago

    A Merasure of the Economic Union...

    "BTW, I've been most disappointed with CBC's coverage to the lead up to the games – they go great lengths to avoid the most controversial aspects of these games. Very disappointing " Verso

    One might as well go direct to the US (CNN) source for what passes for Amertikanized "news" in this country, which CBC is as much or more preoccupied with as, what likewise passes for "Canadian News".
    The years of US Empire Loyalist/ Conservative/quasi-fascist governance of this country, few though those years actually be, has already turned CBC into its Ministry of US Propaganda.

    The CBC, unfortunately, has become a measure of the Amerikanization of Canada, and our "economic union" with The Empire.

  • Skywalker

    2 years ago

    Pure nonsense.

    Whether it is the Superbowl or the Olympics or the Academy Awards I have always wondered how it was possible to say how many would be watching. It is nothing more than wild speculation by promoters who want the event to be more significant in the lives of people that they really are. I have never had a rational explanation of how people arrive at such figures. That is because they are just nonsense.

  • ME2

    2 years ago

    fiat viewers?

    You guys all missed it. More viewers means more ad revenue. Just remember, these are the same guys who've convinced us that fiat money has real value.

  • RMacArthur

    2 years ago

    Olympic Harpocricy

    In 1980 Canada boycotted the Olympics in Moscow in order to protest the Soviet War in Afghanistan. Thirty years later, we are the hosts and invaders. Once again western hypocrisy takes center stage during the 2010 Corporate Games.

  • Takuan

    2 years ago

    billions anyway

    http://business.theatlantic.com/2010/02/did_the_olympics_break_the_greek_government.php

  • Trailblazer

    2 years ago

    manipulated crowds

    If you tell a lie a thousand times it becomes the truth!!
    The media was trying to sell that 30,000 had turned out to See the flame in one Vancouver location; it turned out to be about! 2000.
    If you add in that schools are being allowed out to see the wonderful flame one must ask just how many other manipulated crowds are being counted?
    The hype about the three billion ,I believe, is to make those that are not interested feel as if they are the odd ones out & hence join in!
    Laugh about it now; because when the bills start to come in you will cry.

  • Dr Alexander

    2 years ago

    2 Million, 2 Billion. Who really cares?

    So, some people are arguing that Vancouver2010 isn't able to p**s as far as they say they can.

    Considering all the %^#$ that is happing due to the Olympics, this is a waste of journalistic and investigative effort.

  • Matt T.

    2 years ago

    What the Hell

    I am still stupified, but can anyone here tell me why Carole James, the leader of OUR party who is supposed to represent OUR concerns, is supporting this $8 billion waste/scam?

    James is even attending several Olympic events while the poor keep suffering and nobody cares?????

    What the hell is wrong with everybody and our province.

    Doesn't anyone here even CARE anymore???!!!

  • gerrycgc

    2 years ago

    Disney Olympics

    Look, you are going to love the Olympics. Just SHUT UP and have FUN, or else. The positive people are in charge now. We don't care that you, never wanted, or still don't care about the Olympics. This medicine will be consumed by you. EAT IT! NOW!

  • zalm

    2 years ago

    Well said, ME2

    "More viewers means more ad revenue. "

    All else is dross. Argue fun facts with your friends over beer on Saturday night, but don't spend another second on the kaakaa put out by the Owe-limp-ics bumph-meisters ....

  • Ramona777

    2 years ago

    Hey Matt T., You're Right ....

    Yes, why is the NDP not taking a tougher stance? There's no hope for this province when the official opposition shares opinions with its opposition.
    BTW, speaking of hope, where were all the people yesterday who joined the Anti-Proroguing Facebook group when proroguing Harper was spouting inanities in the BC Legislature yesterday?
    As I believe, a click is a click is a clique.

  • John Greg

    2 years ago

    Matt T. and Ramona777 ...

    Quote:
    ... why is the NDP not taking a tougher stance?

    Because the NDP is just another political party, and with the decline and fall of legitimate democratic process, and the overarching control of uber-capitalism and the plutocracy, they -- the NDP -- must, as must all political parties, show, at the very least, token support of the real power brokers, i.e., the corporate suite, if they want any chance at all of having any say, however small, in the so-called democractic operations of this country.

    Wow! What a party of commas that paragraph is. Sheesh.

    Anyway....

  • Ramona777

    2 years ago

    My Friend, John Greg

    I guess democracy isn't all it's cracked up to be. We need more Wiebo Ludwigs and fewer Carole James.
    As we amuse ourselves to oblivion with "Apps" and gadgets, uber-capitalists and the plutocracy laugh all the way to the bank (and the opening ceremonies), don't they John?

  • A Guenther

    2 years ago

    Trailblazer

    Add to those, the memo that was sent out by head office of the Royal Bank, urging their employess to 'volunteer' to turn out and cheer on the flame as it passed through their town. Pom poms were provided.

  • mary jane

    2 years ago

    turned off

    I have even turned off the comercials and am watching a USA channel with no mention of the billions wasted.
    Will BC ever recover - I don't think so

  • dave49

    1 year ago

    How about 3.5 billion?

    I was at the Opening Ceremonies and we were repeatedly told 3.5 billion people were watching this ceremony. It was a great show, but I cannot believe slightly more than half the humanity on this planet was sitting in front of a TV or monitor connected to some official (or unofficial) broadcaster.

    The countries with the biggest teams are European and Russian/former Soviet Republics, Commonwealth countries and the USA.

  • bfearn

    1 year ago

    Propaganda....

    is a big factor in all this and mainstream media is an important part of it. At the big peaceful protest on Friday a happy group with the slogan, 'Party, not protests' bounced around at the art gallery. When I asked one of them how much this part was going to cost each BC taxpayer he didn't know. When he was told about $3000 he didn't believe it. If half the BC adults enjoy this party I hope they think it was worth about $6000 to them.

  • UrbanWorkbench

    1 year ago

    How Many TVs are there...

    There probably aren`t that many TVs in the world!

  • John Greg

    1 year ago

    Ramona777 ...

    Quote:
    We need more Wiebo Ludwigs and fewer Carole James.

    While I am uncomfortable promoting or condoning violence and bombing -- although when carried out soley against physical structures rather than fleshly people, my reserve weakens -- I, nonetheless, think you are absolutely right.

  • Ramona777

    1 year ago

    Mon Ami, John Greg

    Yes, remember the saying, "Actions speak louder than words," but on the flip side, "The pen is mightier than the sword."
    Which do we choose?
    When weak words are penned but politicians who don't want to risk losing votes rather than work for the betterment of the disenfranchised, it's time to to ACT not spout off inanities.
    On another tangent, I've been reading coverage of the Olympics in other international newspapers and the perspective is much different than we get here.
    One more thing, originally, the mainstream media pegged the number of Canadians who viewed the Olympic opening at 23 million. Last night, on CTV, Brian Williams dropped that bloated number to 13 million.
    How do you explain a whopping 10 million change?
    Question everything.

  • John Greg

    1 year ago

    Ramona777 ...

    Quote:
    Question everything.

    I try to. But being a skeptic can be a real challenge in a world so wholly dedicated to spin, emotional rhetoric, and willful ignorance. N'est pas?

  • aalborg

    1 year ago

    Lies and liars

    This entire event has been one huge, non-stop lie from the minute it was announced Vancouver would host these games. There has not been one truthful statement issued by anyone involved. The 6 billion figure will jump once everyone has cleared out of the city and cold hard reality settles in. The homeless, hungry children, cancelled surgeries, etc ad nauseum will be here and quite possibly worse than it was before, because we will be paying off this fiasco for freaking centuries. I am so disgusted and write the Premier and appropriate Ministers but get no response. It is time to up the revolution and if it reqires violence to get it going, then so be it. I consider the actions of all governments to be one of violence against us, the people. If we have to sink to their level to get what we, the people want in a civil society, then so be it. This whole frigging society is based on lies and worshipping at the altar of the dollar bill. A handful of people control the whole bloody world and we just sit back stunned and stupid and let this shit happen.

    The opening ceremonies were a joke. Starting with the RCMP bringing in the flag. I'm sure a number of people in other countries wondered if that was the same group who shot the Polish immigrant at YVR. Then we trot out the First Nations like they are party favours. They are treated like second class citizens every other day of the year. The big light display of whales, salmon and old growth forests was a joke also. There isn't a salmon left alive, Cathedral Grove would be logged in a heartbeat and whales are dying out. I quit watching at that point. Between the crappy commericials and the lying ceremony I couldn't stand another second of it. If 3 billion actually did watch the games I wonder how many bought the fairy tale view of this province. It ranks right up there as one of the biggest lies of this Olympics.

  • Ramona777

    1 year ago

    To my now 2 friends, John Greg and Aalborg

    Dear John:
    I'm a journalist and yes, I could tell you stories about spin and rhetoric. I fully agree with you. Sceptics are dismissed by the "positive" gang. Remember, what were once "problems" are now referred to as "issues." Ha!
    And aalborg, you eloquently summed up my feelings. Thank you. As a Metis, I'm offended that the pundits are saying how the First Nations display will go a long way to improving relations between aboriginals and the white man. What a joke.
    I was on a city bus Friday speaking with an Indian from Saskatchewan. He had no interest in the Olympics. Instead, he's looking for a job and worried about his brother who had learned to rely on social assistance. That's the reality. Not a spectacle with feathers and fireworks.

  • aalborg

    1 year ago

    Ramona777 you're welcome

    I'm glad I was not the only one to be insulted by the opening ceremonies. Any gains First Nations have made will be taken away once these games end. The same can be said for all segments of our society. There is just not enough money at any level of government to pay this off. The funding cuts to all social programs will be deep and painful. I was at the Dr. the other day and was told I could pay for a private MRI for my knee as the public waiting list is months long. I fully expect that list to grow to years long shortly. It is beyond appalling and so totally unacceptable.
    I cannot fathom how our governments can justify this party for the drug addicted elite at the expense of the homeless and hungry. I can't wait for the numbers of athletes who are on banned substances to be published. I expect that number will be deflated just as the number of viewers was inflated. There is no hope.

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