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The Svend and Hedy Show

And a rookie Tory trying for prime time. Welcome to Vancouver Centre.

Sam Cooper 13 Jan 2006TheTyee.ca

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The two heavyweight political stars in Vancouver Centre are getting all the attention, but as Hedy and Svend scuffle for a similar segment of voters, a rookie candidate with no name recognition is trying to slip up between them on the rising tide of nationwide Conservative momentum.

Liberal incumbent Hedy Fry has held left-leaning Vancouver Centre, Canada's most densely populated urban riding, for 12 years, since ending 12 years of Progressive Conservative domination, first by Senator Pat Carney and then former Prime Minister Kim Campbell, in 1993.

Here, even Conservative candidates have tended to be left of their national colleagues, in a riding notable for progressive politics and a large gay population, estimated to be around 25 percent.

Donut Effect

Gordon Price, a former NPA councillor who has lived in Vancouver Centre's distinct Yaletown and West End neighborhoods, knows area politics about as well as anyone.

Price, who heads up SFU's city studies program and happens to be gay, says the key to analyzing the riding is looking at types of housing, not sexual orientation.

While experts agree the gay community is certainly not a monolithic vote, Price says its safe to say the community leans to the left.

But he points to a new demographic shift in area voting patterns, based on a simple equation.

With the boom of condos rising in the riding recently, more high priced homes is equaling more conservative votes.

"The growth (of condos) here has been greater than any other city in North America," Price says. "If you look at the last civic and provincial elections, you can really see the donut effect."

In electoral-map-speak, he's talking about a ring of blue conservative voters dwelling in the high-priced towers of Yaletown, Coal Harbour, Waterfront Park and International Village, which encircles a swath of left leaning red in the downtown peninsula that forms most of Vancouver Centre.

The middle of the peninsula generally houses younger, more transient renters, and centers on the Davie Village, a concentration of gay population.

Price says especially in the last few years, the blue donut is growing.

"The population of the West End has remained static at 40, 000 since the 1970s," Price says. "But the area below Coal Harbour, plus Yaletown and International Village has added 40, 000 people since Expo 86. These are all high or middle income buildings being built."

According to Price, BC Liberal MLA Lorne Mayencourt beat NDP candidate Tim Stevenson in the area last provincial election specifically because of this demographic shift.

"There is no doubt about it, Mayencourt really targeted these areas, and succeeded in identifying and getting out the vote," Price said.

Showdown on Davie

Right in the centre of the downtown peninsula at an IGA supermarket on Burrard Street, near the Davie Village, Hedy Fry is defending crucial turf.

Handing out pamphlets on a rainy night, she greets everyone coming out of the store, and gets friendly replies from most. "We gotta get this Stephen Harper out of the way, this guy is scary," says a tall man who walks up and puts his hand on her shoulder.

"Especially since he's learned to speak and smile at the same time," Hedy replies.

"But it was the turtle neck that really scared me," the man jokes, before giving Fry a hug.

Asked if she is worried about Svend Robinson grabbing votes from the gay community here, Fry acknowledges he has credentials and connections, but says she has done more in 12 years than he did in 25, by helping the Liberals deliver same-sex marriage legislation.

"How long are you going to listen to him talk?" Fry says.

"I have been hearing negative comments. Why doesn't he run in Burnaby, why not run against a Conservative, why run against a left-leaning Liberal?"

Fry says she is more worried by the Conservative candidate, Tony Fogarassy.

"A lot of people will be undecided and things can change quickly, especially in an urban bellwether riding. They could go either way; the Conservative guy is the one to watch. If the party does well in the East, he could ride the coattails…he is quiet and has credibility."

That concern by Fry may seem like spin to discount Robinson who is elbowing in on her socially progressive voter base, but Fry's estimation of Fogarassy's threat is starting to look more realistic as his party's momentum surges towards majority territory in national polls.

But asked about the growth of conservative voters in all those new condos, Fry shrugs and says wait and see.

"The last time I did very well in Yaletown, but every election is different."

Yaletown schmooze

At midday in the heart of Yaletown outside the Urban Fare food market, if you look at the sky and rotate your field of vision 360 degrees, you'll see numbers of huge cranes swinging glass and concrete amidst half-built condo towers, all the way around.

Well-dressed 30 and 40-somethings sip cappuccino and tap away on laptops beside a wall completely decorated with softly lit green bottles of mineral water inside the trendy store, which specializes in up-market groceries.

Outside, Tony Fogarassy is greeting shoppers under Senator Pat Carney's guidance.

He stops to answer questions periodically, before Carney urges him to get back into voter meet and greet mode.

Asked how he feels about public perception that Vancouver Centre is a two horse race, Fogarassy jumps into a well-rehearsed response.

"I know that is how Svend and Hedy characterize it, but I take umbrage with that," he says, eager to enumerate the reasons he should be counted in.

He nods at the circle of condos surrounding a large square across the street.

"With every new tower constructed, we have polling and phone banking that shows there are more conservative voters in these buildings. We are seeing very encouraging numbers," he says with a smile.

"This is a strong Tory area, and we are going after Blue Liberals aggressively too."

"Svend running changes the dynamic, he is taking a lot of Hedy's steam, and the Green's are running hard too," he adds. "And we are mainstreeting in the West End and getting good response."

Asked about Robinson's chances in the riding, Carney says, "Svend always threatened to run against me in Vancouver Centre; my view is he has passed his expiry date."

'Svend him back'

In front of what organizers called a record crowd of about 400 in the West End Community Centre, Robinson made the unofficial re-launch of brand Svend with "Svend him back to Ottawa" buttons and loyal supporters in tow.

The last candidate to enter, he was greeted with the biggest cheer of all, and an echo of boos.

By the end of the two-hour meeting, anyone who said he wasn't in top form would have been lying.

Robinson nailed virtually every answer without a wasted word, projecting passion and sincerity.

On the topic of national unity, he got a roar of approval, saying he would work with the Bloc up to a point.

"Let's face it, it's going to be a minority government, and that is a good thing for democracy," Robinson said. "In some areas, the Bloc has been very progressive and I will work with them, but on separation I will fight that with everything I have."

After the debate, at least one undecided voter approached Robinson to say his performance had won her vote.

Most of the crowd seemed in a mood for forgiveness, as an elderly woman who asked how he dared run for office after stealing a ring was loudly booed.

However on another occasion, with an unfortunate choice of words, it was clear that the ring still hangs over him.

When he spoke of the need to improve sentencing in the justice system and pointed out the case of an inadequately short prison sentence for the "ring-leader" of a certain crime group, he was met with a loud round of snickers.

Fry spoke with her usual gusto, accusing Robinson of empty talk and grandstanding, and saying Fogarassy's party would have Canada in Iraq and under the United States' ballistic missile umbrella.

But Robinson and Fogarassy continuously hammered Fry on the Liberal party's involvement in the sponsorship scandal. On issues for Vancouver Centre, all three agreed crime, homelessness and affordable housing were important issues, but didn't offer specific policies.

Fry was asked if she would stand up against the Port Mann bridge twinning, but said her government would not tell local governments how to spend transportation dollars.

Throughout the debate, Fogarassy lacked fire, and had to be repeatedly reminded to stand up and speak up, but he spoke carefully.

He introduced himself saying, "I'm not a professional politician. While I acknowledge my opponents have long records of public service, they carry political baggage. You should ask yourself who can you count on to bring about fresh change?"

Asked about his position on same-sex marriage, Fogarassy said he would vote in favour of it and the Conservative party would allow him to vote his conscience.

'Once bitten, twice shy'

After the debate, asked if he is afraid of NDP supporters strategically voting for Fry in order to block the Harper Conservatives, Robinson said voters won't go for a Liberal campaign of fear.

"Martin tried it last time and it worked, it won't work again. Once bitten, twice shy," Robinson said.

And on criticism that he parachuted into Vancouver Centre to harness support in the gay community, Robinson said, "There is no such thing as a gay vote, it is just like the Chinese or any other minority community. Having said that, I know people know what I have done for the community."

On Fry's comment that she had accomplished more for the gay community in 12 years than he had in 25, he said, "I'm not going to sit here and keep score, I'd like to think my record speaks for itself," adding Fry should be reminded he successfully introduced the hate crimes bill from his position as an opposition MLA.

Asked to comment on Robinson's rousing performance, Fry said, "Svend did as Svend always does, he was very good with one liners. But I challenge him to point to any deliverables for Burnaby in 25 years."

The next day, a poll of 500 Vancouver Centre residents was published, showing near identical numbers to the finish of the 2004 election, with 41 percent support for the Liberals, 33 percent for the NDP, 19 percent for the Conservatives, and 7 percent for the Greens.

'A lot closer'

In a phone interview, Fogarassy's campaign manager Gary Mitchell, who ran for the party in 2004, said the poll must be flawed.

"I can't believe it; to look at what's happening nationally and to say we haven't moved from where we were when we bottomed out last election is ridiculous. In reality, it is a lot closer. Tony is not out of this."

Mitchell said regional polls from early January had Conservative support in B.C. at 41 percent and rising, but if it reached 45 percent, the Vancouver Centre riding would be in play for Fogarassy.

He acknowledged Fogarassy has no name recognition against the highly successful Fry and Robinson brands, and lacks their legendary political chops, but said people vote in local ridings based on national campaigns.

"Tony's been called the severely normal alternative," Mitchell said with a laugh. "We've strategized. He is not a professional politician, and if he doesn't come across like the other two, that is a good thing."

But with negative ads from the Liberals, will the gay community respond in fear of a hidden social agenda from Harper? "My feeling is if people feel safe enough with Harper this time, then we are going to get enough votes with that community," Mitchell said, noting he is a member of the gay community himself.

Wait and see

Gordon Price hints Hedy Fry should take Vancouver Centre, and says judging from conversations in the riding, Robinson faces tough sledding.

"Those who would be predisposed to vote NDP are having a tough time with Svend's reappearance at this time. There is just a sense it is too soon and looks too opportunistic," Price said. "Maybe if he had waited one more election."

But he doesn't rule out Fogarassy, or see evidence of a widespread boycott of the Conservatives in the West End.

If it is any indication, at the Pumpjack Pub, Davie's most popular gay meeting spot, TVs were not even tuned into the last English language debate. Because same-sex marriage legislation could be back on the table, one might have expected a crowd gathered to boo and hiss Stephen Harper, but it wasn't there.

"If that scare occurs, it would have to be in the next week," Price said. "I haven't seen it yet."

"Clearly (Vancouver) Centre responds to national trends, and people don't seem to have a lot of party allegiance," he adds. "It's somewhat of a transient neighborhood." But could a guy with a last name people still have trouble pronouncing take out two superstars?

"It's possible to draw a scenario depending on how those two brands (Svend and Hedy) split the vote," Price said. "Could a Conservative come up the middle? It's possible to do it, but at this point it looks pretty tough. But I may wake up on the 24th and be surprised."

Sam Cooper reports on politics for The Tyee.  [Tyee]

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