The WHO asked for $260. million to fight the avian flu and received $20. Meanwhile up to $2. trillion change hand every day on the money markets to keep our speculators and their profit machines happy and growing.

The virus now has spread to Macedonia, Greece and Croatia. In Bavaria the sale of live birds has been banned. In Poland all birds have to remain in closed areas, under cover.

Which means that sooner, or later, the flu will hit here in the Americas, thanks to "cheap" mobility.

The BSE and now these poultry illnesses are all the result of agribiz, factory farm mass food production, which is supposed to grow "cheap foods", while poisoning people with chemicals and illnesses.

There are no cheap foods, or cheap anything. With monetary manipulation the costs can be temporarily transferred on other sectors, the environment, or the future, but sooner or later they will come out and hit hard.

So, when will our economists and governments come to realize the solid facts of life: Costs can not be cut, only transferred, or postponed.

Ed Deak, Big Lake.

Sorry, Ed. I just cannot let you use your soap box tirade on the evils of modern agriculture practices to spread false information about the source(s) of avian flu. There is no information, from any source, that says that avian flu is "...the result of agribiz, factory farm mass food production...". On this matter you are absolutely wrong, and I challenge you to PROVE otherwise.

The H5N1 virus was first identified last year in Vietnamese chickens and ducks, WHERE IT WAS ACQUIRED FROM MIGRATING WATERFOWL. In the past year it has spread between different populations of wild birds that share the Asian arctic tundra each summer. Because of their different migration routes, these infected birds are now bringing the virus to new populations of farmed fowl in Eastern Europe. The likely source of transfer/contamination is bird droppings.

As further evidence that agribiz is not the source of the H5N1 virus, I can confirm from first hand experience in Vietnam (5 trips in the past 4 years, totaling over 6 months of time on the ground) that poultry production in that country is about as far from agribiz as you can get. Individual farmers with small flocks of chickens and ducks raise the vast majority of Vietnam's poultry. It is the contamination of these individual flocks of birds by migrating waterfowl that is problematic for Vietnamese regulators - controlling the problem by the depopulation of infected birds and surrounding flocks is having a devistating impact on the livlihood of these individual farmers. As is usual, regulators are quick to act to address the immediate problem, but slow to provide adequate financial assistance and replacement birds.

Yes, I have to disagree on this one Ed, not that I'm any fan of agribiz with its many other evils.

All cases of human transmission to date have been focussed in SE Asia in areas where people keep birds and poultry in traditional arrangements. The virus is now endemic among poultry in those areas because it is much harder to control contact between the wild birds who transmit it and free ranging domestic backyard fowl. Holland was looking at banning outdoor free range hens for the same reason.

Although the arrival of H5N1 in Europe is what has caused the latest panic, it's actually much more likely that the virus will make the jump to efficient human-to-human transmission in SE Asia, where it is now endemic in birds & poultry and where traditional customs and inadequate resources will make it much harder to control human infections and to detect the first clustering outbreaks that will signal the onset of a pandemic.

Thus we'd probably be wiser to be looking west at incoming air traffic from the Orient for Vancouver's first cases, than looking East at what's currently happening in a nervous Europe.

Ed wrong? I don't think so, he may not have all the facts, but then again neither do you. Nothing new here that wasn't on the CBC documentary and again on "killer cure" last night. BSE has a few different forms in animals and humans and the consensus is North America doesn't even test the animals unless they are showing signs of the disease. 131 animals in Italy/Germany were found with BSE but no outward symtoms. Here in North America, especially in the US, the fear is that many animals infected are in the food chain, even today with what we know. The death of the 26 year old man from the show, is probably not the only case. They've been covering up cases of BSE for years and this form of BSE in humans is immposible to detect without an autopsy. How many others have died from mysterious brain disease? There is only one way to be safe and that is test 100%. I wasn't too concerned before, but now, beef is off the menu, until 100% testing is in place. You may as well add poultry to the list too. As the above posts indicate the first cases have been found in humans in Vietnam. From eating infected birds. But human to human transmition can't be far behind. So who cares if agribiz is not to blame for this HN51 strain, another will be waiting in the "wings" anyway to take its place. The main point being agribiz is fertile ground for the evil gingivitis! Now go eat your vegtables.....

H5N1.... Also The cover story National Geographic this month. Cases reported in humans now reach into Cambodia and Indonesia. Anyone know what pork bellies are doing today?

I agree with pretty much everything you're saying about BSE, but BSE and H5N1 are two very different issues. I don't think it aids understanding of either issue to confuse or lump together their causes and/or consequences.

Not sure we'll get much in the way of opinion over here anyway, with the strike threads running overtime! I do believe there is a connection between disease in general and the way we raise domestic livestock for public consumption. Lot's of history there. So don't you think they are related in a broadser sense? Closer to the issue obviously H5N1 has the pandemic potential going for it so yes in that sense they are totaly unrelated.
Lets ask Ron what he thinks.

Yikes, don't do that -- it's so nice and peaceful so far!

I fully agree with you re the relationship between disease in general and modern ways of raising livestock. I was reading letters to the BBC online earlier and many Brits are making the same connections that you are.

I'm wondering whether H5N1 will be the disaster that everyone now fears or if it will be another Y2K (as someone else has suggested) and that the real threat will slam us right out of the blue like SARS or the first emergence of BSE.

Someone wise said the only thing certain about our future is that it will become increasingly uncertain! I believe it.

Please read what I wrote : "....the BSE and now these poultry illnesses........." not specifically mentioning this avian flu, because we don't known the origins any more that we know of the AIDS'. It could be manmade, or spread, like the myxomatosis epidemic in rabbits in the early '50s.

Look at the number of birds that have been killed on the Lower Mainland a year of two ago with some other epidemic, including those of small farmers. Or the thousands of cattle infected with hoof and mouth disease killed in Britain a few years ago.

These illnesses existed since time immemorial, but have been controlled because they were localized. When we were living in England in the early '50s there was a h&m epidemic in cattle in certain parts. When we were traveling on our motorcycle we sometimes had to drive through pools of desinfectant on the roads, but nobody asked where we lived, which happened to be a farm 5 miles outside Cambridge, where we had pure bred cattle. We weren't forbidden to travel and the epidemic passed with realitively little damage.

Now, some farms have thousands of animals, 50,000 head of cattle on some feedlots, especially in the USA and now also here in Canada, millions of birds, loaded up on medications, poisoning the area for miles with their chemically laden urine and manure, breeding superbugs that no antibiotics can kill. Like the superbugs in our hospitals, albeit on a much larger scale.

We have about 40 chickens right now, living on a half acre natural, bush covered yard, with an excellent house, next to a swamp where wild ducks and geese cavort around. Yet, I'm not the least bit worried about our birds coming down with the flu.

The biggest problems are always caused in every case and fields by the so called "economics of numbers". They always have and will backfire, because they're against logic and nature.

I'm worried, however, that it may spread to humans, in which case we're ready to stay at home for 2 months, with enough supplies, if necessary. Ed Deak, Big Lake.

Despite all the alarmist rhetoric from the media, I'm not sure I even believe in the avian flu or this so-called pandemic.

I do believe that the mad rush for vaccinations will mean be big bucks for big pharma.

I don't think, given the accidental deaths of what I last read, was 60 of the worlds top virologists, it'should beyond reasonable consideration, that great evil is afoot.

I do know that I won't be lining up bypass my own immune system to put who knows what shit, into my arm.

Those tempted to take this chance with their health would be well advised to research the problems with vaccines.

"Just say no to drugs"

Ed, I did read what you wrote. In your typical 'play loose with the facts' style of posting, you include irrelevant issues (BSE), allude to 'poultry illnesses' (but apparently not avian flu - how does that work when posting to a story on the potential evolution of avian flu to human pandemic flu ?), and then you jump into your pet conspiracy theory on the misrepresentation of economic data by governments and economists. The problem here is that you seem to think that all these issues are inter-connected in some weird cosmic collusion of/by the agribiz industry.

Now, I am no fan of Monsanto, modern feedlots, corporate farms or other elements of agribiz, but I am not deluded enough to think that agribiz orchestrated the appearance of H5N1 in SE Asia. And that is a perfectly logical conclusion that anyone reading your initial comment above might make. If you do not want your posts to be 'misread', then I suggest that you stick to facts, not suppostion when making comments to these threads.

Hey boondocker, I sense you have another agenda with your attack on Ed, or perhaps I'm misreading you...

Club, if I have another agenda it is this: misinformation about avian flu and possible person-to-person transmission of this disease contributes to hysteria over the potential for avian flu to develop into a human flu pandemic.

I have been following this issue longer than Crawford has. In my opinion, current discussion of this issue in the media is boardering on hysteria. Most individuals and many media commentators do not have their facts straight.

As of this date, there has been no documented case of person-to-person transmission of avian flu. There have been clusters of cases, but no confirmed transfer between individuals. In almost all instances of multiple cases the vector has been traced back to the consumption of infected birds by families or extended families. The problem in SE Asia is traditional animal husbandry practices (living in close proximity to their animals), and the consumption of raw (chicken blood) or undercooked poultry that does not kill the virus.

The media prediliction for obtaining quotes (and sound bites) from infectious disease specialists is not helping the matter because all epidemiologists will confirm that it is indeed possible for diseases to jump the species barrier. That is a fact. Will it happen in this case? Who knows! It is all just speculation, but the media is treating it like it is going to happen tomorrow if it has not already happened today.

I am just trying to do my part to make sure that irrelevant and misleading information about the source of H5N1 is not being presented in public forums such as this without that misinformation being challenged.

As for Ed, well, I do find his posts pendantic, repetative, and frequently off-topic.

Fair comment. Expecting the media to report anything other than something bleeding is a bit optomistic don't you think? Tough to compete with the headlines this year, tsunami, hurricane & earthquake all setting the bar pretty high. But that's not Ed's fault. The author here seems to echo your own views but also states that eventual human to human connection is just a matter of time. Panic in the streets? I don't know about that. Seems to be plenty more in my view to get panicked about. Truth in journalism, the state of agribiz, or Ed's "loose" theory on economics are all welcome here. Hopefully you can give us more updates on H5N1 as you seem to have a passion for this topic. But leave the economics to Ed, it's the only theory I've come across that takes sustainability/accountability seriously. He's just doing his part hoping that society may someday wake up and stop the insanity.

Hi Boondocker !

It's nice to see that someone else is a little skeptical of how bad Avian flu will be.

I have talked to father on this issue (he's a medical microbiology professor at UBC) and he thinks it's a little overblown !

As Public Enemy (the rap group from the USA) say:
"Don't believe the hype !"

Kevan "Afraid of Pretty Girls" Hudson

Being an immunologist who might know the Former BC boy's father at UBC, I have to agree with him. If the public hasn't caught on yet, prophylactic measures (usually including windfall profits for the biopharma companies making "bird flu vaccines" and such) are usually stimulated by one thing - lots of panic/hype money via pressure by a freaked out public who hears about the deadly onslaught and tracking of this weird strain of new flu. The best measure would be better breeding practices ensuring healthier birds living in less crowded conditions. Viruses are usually species specific unless they somehow mix within a host - the main organisms who should be freaked out are the birds themselves who are vulnerable to the incompetent gluttonous breeding practices of the nit wit homo sapiens who only manage to wreak disaster where ever they lay their hats.

Ah yes, the power of the MEME to generate panic among the masses, and the readiness of special interests to exploit people's fears.

Perhaps in another twenty years we'll wonder how we were so easily duped with contrived claims about "Second Hand Smoke", just as we're only now coming to realise we've been with Pot.

From what I've heard "bird flu" has always been around in wild birds and is perfectly normal. It can and has infected people but doesn't create a huge pandemic normally , it has to mutate into a new strain to become dangerous from what I understand.

Isn't the dangerous bird flu variant the one that somehow crosses over into pigs then mutates and infects human workers at the pig farms?

I read the 1918 Flu Pandemic killed anywhere from 20 to 40 million people in one year ..... more than were killed in 4 years from the Black Death Bubonic Plague of 1347 -1351

Here is an excerpt from a letter a physician who was stationed in 1918 near Boston who attended to the infected soldiers "Camp Devens is near Boston, and has about 50,000 men, or did have before this epidemic broke loose. It also has the Base Hospital for the Div. of the N. East. This epidemic started about four weeks ago, and has developed so rapidly that the camp is demoralized and all ordinary work is held up till it has passed. All assembleges of soldiers taboo.
These men start with what appears to be an ordinary attack of LaGrippe or Influenza, and when brought to the Hosp. they very rapidly develop the most viscous type of Pneumonia that has ever been seen. Two hours after admission they have the Mahogany spots over the cheek bones, and a few hours later you can begin to see the Cyanosis extending from their ears and spreading all over the face, until it is hard to distinguish the coloured men from the white. It is only a matter of a few hours then until death comes, and it is simply a struggle for air until they suffocate. It is horrible. One can stand it to see one, two or twenty men die, but to see these poor devils dropping like flies sort of gets on your nerves. We have been averaging about 100 deaths per day, and still keeping it up. There is no doubt in my mind that there is a new mixed infection here, but what I dont know. My total time is taken up hunting Rales, rales dry or moist, sibilant or crepitant or any other of the hundred things that one may find in the chest, they all mean but one thing here -Pneumonia-and that means in about all cases death. "

Avicenna writes...

Which is where we were at the top of this thread. Talking about how feed lot mentality is a breeding ground for disease.
...and scylla, what is it you are trying to say? I'm not following you lately...

Good overview, Crawford. Here's the big question: Is there any reason to think that the avian flu virus will mutate in such a way that it will be passed from human to human? I've been trying to explain mutagenesis for years but noone's listening, probably because I have no scientific background in virology or any other kind of science. Suffice to say: MUTATIONS are almost always degenerate. (All cancers are caused by coding mistakes--mutations, for instance) This thankful good news-bad-news manifestation of the second law of thermodynamics is what makes the entire theory of evolution probably the most comical and ridiculous idea in the history of ideas. (Second only to the Genesis account of creation, of course) To assess the current danger from an animal-to-human virus, (which so far, the avian virus remains) FOLLOW THE MONEY. Supposedly, scientists have gotten a bunch of spanish-flu-infected tissue and reverse-engineered the virus, arriving at the remarkably marketable conclusion that it is extremely similar to the current avian virus. Even if this is true--which I doubt--serious scientists will admit that they have not been able to establish a body of knowledge which will render them capable of mapping or predicting the probability of any particular bacteria or virus mutating into a more specialized organism. Currently, it is much more likely that even if the N5N1 shares a similar genome with the 1918 virus, any mutations in the current virus will render it less likely to pose a serious danger to humans--if and when it crosses this huge species bridge. In otherwords, a killer animal-to-human virus will probably be no more serious than a bad cold if it enters permanent residence among the human population. Not to worry, people. Speciation inertia will probably save us from an avian flu pandemic. And don't believe all those tv scientists who keep saying it's not "if" but "when." They don't understand that about which they speak. The odds are hugely against there ever being another flu pandemic to match the spanish flu of l918-1919.

In regard to Truman's question about "mutagenesis" - in the case of viruses - their genetic material can be either RNA or DNA based - and they use "host machinery" to replicate. So in the event that a person who has been battling a flu virus that is specific for humans is exposed to the avian flu virus - the genetic material between these two strains of viruses can be exchanged within a cell that is infected with both - thereby making a new virus strain having properties of both. This is one example of how a new human specific strain of the avian flu virus can form - but it isn't "mutagenesis" in the truest definition. There isn't any sure way to predict how severe either the outbreak or the illness of the humanized avian flu would be - but like all influenza based outbreaks - it is usually the immunocomprised or weak that would be at greatest risk.

"There isn't any sure way to predict how severe either the outbreak or the illness of the humanized avian flue would be." Right on, Avicenna. That's basically my point. Viruses are just chunks of protein-coated dna. They send out proteins which seem to almost flirt with the cells of their hosts. When the hosts mount an attack the viruses destroy the defence proteins, then enter the cell, replacing the host's sequencing information with that of their own. Pretty nasty business, eh. The host cell then produces more viruses. As Avicenna suggests, the opportunities for "learning" are severe. It kinda reminds me of those beetles which lay their eggs in the flesh of their victims so that their offspring can have something to eat while they developing, or Michelle Jean, a former Haitian, becoming the governor general of one of the countries which helped to destroy the fledgling democracy of her own home and native land.

Sounds a lot like US foreign policy.

Well, any histeria inspired to immobilize masses with fear and exploiting public naivite is reminiscent of US foreign policy.
Truman Green, I think an interesting investigation would be assessing the share holders of tamiflu who are advising the media and government as to how devastating the avian flu pandemic will be. When this scenario fails to materialize - they will pat themselves on the back stating that their proactive approach saved the world from mad chickens.

Actually, histeria inspiration would be their domestic policy...
The US military MO is where they invade the host country, flirt with the cells, and then destroy their defences, replacing the cells with their own agenda...