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Libs' Lead Is Big but Soft
If the NDP gets a bit lucky there’s still room for an upset.
With the Liberals sitting at seven points up you would think that May 17th would be a slam dunk for Campbell & Co. and so it will likely prove. But if there is to be an upset, which in my books would be the NDP taking more than 30 seats, I would be looking behind those numbers for signs that there may be weaknesses in the Liberal position.
First off, the big lead for the Liberals is in the Lower Mainland. In this sense it looks a lot like it did in 1996 when the Liberals won the popular vote and lost the election. The problem was that the Liberals won so big on the North Shore that the lead they had in the polls going in was stacked too much in one area. In the current election, the Liberals must worry about Vancouver Island and large pockets of the interior and the north where their numbers are not great.
Second, the Liberals must be concerned that Campbell is about as popular as he’s going to get, which is to say not very, whereas Carole James has nowhere to go but up. Unless your name is Tiger Woods, being the front-runner holds terrors of its own for the only way to go is down.
Another factor going in is that no one really has a handle on what the British call the “marginals”: the constituencies that are not in the bag for either party. In fact, after the debacle of 2001, it’s hard to identify just which seats are marginal. Moreover, to answer the “marginal” question, you really have to know the candidates and most of us don’t know many. In a close race, often the candidate themself can be very well liked locally and thus be hard to beat under any political banner. In the “safe seats” it doesn’t matter if the majority party runs a fencepost with hair.
The youth factor
The next worry bead for the Libs is the theory that young people come to the polls. Every election this thought is raised; every year the young stay at home. These same young people will travel thousands of miles to protest something or other but won’t cross the street to vote. There have been more efforts than usual this year to get young people to the polls and if they work, the conventional wisdom is that this will help the NDP. That would certainly be true of most college kids.
Then there is the environment, something that the Liberals have ignored except to the extent they’ve allowed their pals to bugger it up. Tubing the Ministry of Environment was a strong sign to business that they wouldn’t be troubled by little problems like spotted owls, fish bearing streams or swarms of lice around salmon farms killing migrating native salmon. The conventional wisdom here is that these voters will be of the left and thus only reluctantly go to the Green Party. But what if that’s not entirely accurate? In the last Federal election, especially on the North Shore, many Conservatives voted Green in protest. What if the same thing happens in the provincial election? Could the Liberals lose a few seats because voters going Green didn’t leave the NDP but left them? The Greens stand at about 13% - if they got that up to 20% or so, what would that do to the overall picture?
Recapturing the ‘working class’
The last problem is for both parties. Neither can erase their time honoured images – for Liberals uncaring Big Business; for the NDP selfish and powerful Big Labour. The Liberals are making no effort to soften their image, content to assume that the average voter, while he might not love big business, sees that as the way to more and better jobs.
The NDP, on the other hand, while unable to shake the cloak of Big Labour, has reached out to business in an effort, not so much to get the Chamber of Commerce vote, but to attract that portion of the working people that, for a variety of reasons, have never voted NDP.
If the CCF/NDP had ever come close to getting support from all working people, blue collar people, they would probably have captured every government since 1936. Ms. James knows that much of labour doesn’t like governments beating up on Business because they not only see capital providing the jobs but also the dividends that go into their retirement programs. When I was running for office as a Socred, I had the endorsement of three unions and one of my executives was also an executive with the Pulp and Paper Union. In fact, in both elections I ran in I carried North Kamloops which was, for want of a nicer word, working class. The inability of the left in BC to capture all the areas one would think would go left has disabled the NDP and if Carole James can make some headway here, it will be an important factor on May 17th.
In summary then, a seven point lead for the Liberals looks insurmountable. However, if it gets much closer as the day approaches, look-out. If the popular vote is that close, and the NDP gets a bit lucky, there could be an upset.
Rafe Mair, a regular columnist for The Tyee, can be heard weekdays from 8:30-10:30 on AM600 ![]()



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Stuart
7 years ago
Comments on "Libs' Lead Is Big but Soft"
I recently ran the Sun Run with several colleagues. The experience of being part of a human wave in a ocean of humanity was incredible. Every year fifty thousand people come rain or shine forecast come out to run this scenic track in the heart of Vancouver. And to finish among the top ten percent was incredible. As I witnessed this manifestation of brotherhood; people from all walks of life drawn together for one common ideal. I smile in joyous hope that we can find common ground and raise the standards for all. I dream of people walking out into the streets by the thousands to proclaim health care for all as a right, I see the masses singing a synchronous melody the demands justice for all. But, in flash I am transported back to reality as I think of the struggles of workers in the lower mainland. The unjust laws against the poor that have gone unnoticed and unchallenged by the masses. I dont believe that people dont care, I am convinced that when people are informed they make the right choices. I wonder how many among us really know that the cuts to health care services have resulted in increased cost of vital medication for people with low incomes, that the new safe streets act is a racist piece of legislation that oppresses those who can least defend themselves. The cuts to education that have resulted in 2500 layoff of teachers and closures of over 115 schools which have serious impact on our communities. The cost to maintain a social services safety net and allow people who are destitute a chance to have access to shelter and food costs the tax payers less then a dollar a day. I would pay ten times more to eradicate homelessness in our communities. And no, I do not believe for a second that anyone enjoys being homeless, devoid of their dignity, beaten and abused due to the vulnerable circumstances they are in. The next time you look at a homeless person picture the face of your child, and see the humanity in them that we all share. I believe that injustice anywhere threatens justice everywhere. We can not be selective in our choice to due right. A world where all people are respected for their innate rights as humans being is possible. Your titles and positions can be taken away, no one is immune in the war against workers and the poor that the Campbell government in its short sighteness has embarked upon. Nor should any of us be excused of our responsibility to respond to repressive laws. A democratic society can only exist when people are active participants in their society and the law making process. When the people lead the leaders will follow, The power to change is in us. Be the change you want to see in your world!
Stuart
7 years ago
It's about everyday , not just May 17
BC Mary
7 years ago
[/B]... [if] the N.D.P. gets a bit lucky, there could be an upset.
Yahooooooooooooo!![U]
BC Mary
7 years ago
Let's try that again:
...[if] the N.D.P. gets a bit lucky, there could be an upset.
[B][I][U]Yahoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo !!
BC Mary
7 years ago
Like I suspected ... it's my computer's off-day again. Sorry.
Budd Campbell
7 years ago
I don't always pay a whole lot of attention to Rafe Mair, because I am an ex-Charlottetown and Meech supporter. Still, he makes a good point about the concentration of the BC Liberal polling support in the Lower Mainland.
Rafe identifies the North Shore as a hotbed of Liberal support that adds more to their popular vote than to their seats, because overwhelming majorities are being "wasted" taking a seat with a stupefying 70 or 80 percent of the vote when a mere 50 or 60 percent would do nicely.
But this phenomonon it doesn't end at the Lions Gate. The Westside, particularly the Quilchena and Langara seats are more or less in the same category as are the four seats in Richmond and Tswassen, plus about eight seats on the south side of the Fraser River stretching from Chilliwack to White Rock.
All these ridings produce huge BC Liberal majorities just as they once produced huge BC Socred majorities. They have their differences, the secular, even hedonistic, rich on the North Shore and the Westside versus the Christian Right of the Fraser Valley, and the major Hong Kong entrepreneurial element in Richmond. But they all have one powerful unifying impulse in mind, a common desire to make absolutely certain that organized labour is defeated politically.
Altogether this Liberal hard best adds up to about a dozen and a half seats all going gratis into the Liberal column before balloting has even formally commenced, ... and all serving to produce an Liberal lead in province wide opinion polls that is more apparent than real.
redrivergirl
7 years ago
It's okay Mary! My computer keeps punching in WHEN there's an upset. It just won't let me type 'if''.
The ESP function key can't be disabled. :)
I agree, Rafe, that the race is far from over.
redrivergirl
7 years ago
Yes, Bud. That's one reason why the BC Liberals are pushing behind the scenes for STV.
Beware of Liberals bearing gifts.
Corvus
7 years ago
I question the notion that the "youth factor" would work in the NDP's favor. It certainly is the conventional wisdom that young adults are left-wing, but I wonder if that's really true or, if it is, that this would be of benefit to the NDP.
From my college experience, young adults are left-wing in the anti-authoritarian sense and not in a political sense. That is, they see the electoral process as authoritarian and oppose the very notion of political parties. That is why they don't vote.
After decades of rock/storm/get out the vote initiatives, youth participation in elections has remained stagnant. Young people are very aware of the election; they just don't see it as having anything to do with them. I don't see this changing in time for the next election.
Even if young people were interested in voting, I doubt they would flock to the NDP. In my experience, the NDP is seen by young people as old, authoritarian, bureaucratic, and completely dominated by organized labour.
Many youth movements, such as anti-globalization, marijuanna legalization, and education reform, are actually quite Libertarian and oppose traditional socialist beliefs. If followers of these movements decided to join an existing political party, I would not automatically assume it would be the NDP.
bigEd
7 years ago
I hope to God your right Rafe,we need rid of corrupt Campbell.
Ed.
Stuart
7 years ago
I Feel Carole is playing the perfect game, if she comes out hard the media will vilify her as a old left wing radical. If she comes out saying she will undue everything Gordo has done she comes out being an old time tax and spend NDP, the media is waiting to pounce on her, basically she has no baggage and she is playing it into the middle, So think about it . No hard line lefties or union members will vote Gordo no matter what but she will attract the unsure voters. While Gordo can only attract his camp, Carole is playing it safe and pointing out that Gordo is the party for the extremist and ideologies. Just keep talking about Gordo and dragging him threw the mud. Polls are for strippers, when you break it down--
A 7 point lead is nothing , there is a margin of error plus the way the ridings break down
Its almost a tie, even Gordo is unsure of a win. So Carole is just letting one bad story hit Gordo after another.
1) Boy in the bubble,
2) Funneling money from cities into BC Liberal coffers.
3) # of homeless doubles under liberals.
Just keep the stories going.
Stuart
7 years ago
Anyone Live in New West out their , how about a group of us show up on Queen st with big signs asking what happened to St Mary's hospital or just hold up some of those old signs that say save St Marys. Open some sores folks, show up at a rally with a save St marys sign.
TheMac
7 years ago
I would argue that the youth vote in 1972 was a very important part of the WAC Bennett downfall.
Young people were finding it increasingly difficult to insure their vehicles, and the NDP were promising relief. Gordon Campbell will privatize ICBC and young people should be aware of the repercussions.
JIm
7 years ago
What Carole's perfect game? Spread lots of rhetoric, then when asked what you are going to do make sure you promise nothing. Then if pressed on that make sure you'll bring up the fact that AFTER the election you'll start meeting with people to really decide what your going to do.
Carole will be exposed on Tuesday, unless she decides to actually answer a question. Or will she wait until after the election to respond to GC. I guess we will have to wait until Carole consults with business, labour and communities before any questions can be answered. It's amazing she had a year to get ready for this election yet she won't answer any question without "consulting". Isn't a year enough time to formulate an opinion and consult? Or is she just too scared to let the public know what her real agenda is?
And yes I do know she has promised to scrap the training wage and increase long term care beds, but that seems to be her only strong commitments.
She is running a fairly solid, moderate campaign. Will voters risk changing the course BC is currently on for an inexperienced, unknown, and untested leader who won’t give any straight answers? Not to mention she has pledged to make very little in the way of changes.
Maybe a bunch of Liberal supporters should stand on Oak st. and ask what happened to the Shaughnessy hospital.
BLONDE PITBULL
7 years ago
Good point JIm, the NDP tried closing one hospital, Shaughnessy, years ago using the Gordo theory of trimming budgets and found that it didn't help. Campbell's drinking buddy Klien also tried/ did the same tatic of firing the workers but within 2-3yrs had to re hire them because it simply didn't work; but you twits back GC thinking it would work here. Klien's (and Campbell's) theory of "improving" healthcare has had a 10 yr trial period there and has had little, if any, success. But you and others think it would here...Talk about blinded by ideology.....
Paul in East Van
7 years ago
This JIm guy above posted the following:
"Will voters risk changing the course BC is currently on for an inexperienced, unknown, and untested leader who won’t give any straight answers?"
Now a few questions have got to be asked - of JIm, and of any other followers of Gordo:
Why wouldn't voters want a change of direction? How does privatizing crown corporations help the common BCer? After the extremely shady BC Rail privatization deal, why would BCers want to see Gordo and his ilk privatize ICBC and BC Hydro?
I look forward to JIm and the pro-privatization lobby answer these quite straightforward questions.
Coyote
7 years ago
For sure it is far from over.
Somewhere in my travels today, I picked up a 29% undecided figure still out there-, which is certainly large enough to change any direction just about. (It was in the course of a CBC interview with the new leader of... What's their name? ...Liberal Democrats, or summat?
And making a real point of eavesdropping people's conversations of late, as I am whenever I pick up they are talking politics-, for all its unreliability, is split pretty even, with a fair weighting not wanting to vote NDP, but not wanting to vote Liberal either. (Which could be an entirely "local" thing, I concede.)
How that all translates out, I only have a hope and a guess, which says somewhat insistantly, a major split-, a government majority of two-three seats, talking popular vote. How it works for actual seats, I've never been good at the technical part of the "Limited Capitalist Democracy" electoral mapping thingy. (I know there are others here much better, for sure.)
With one party on the further right, being the Libs, and three fairly serious parties with their butts over the toilet's centre hole, how that translates out as well, I don't know either. (Greens, Lib Dems and NDP.)
The NDP has the opposition history and a track record, which would certainly seem to give them the edge, but... They are failing to separate themselves from the pack ideologically, as a choice, and there is a startling amount of residual dislike out there for the NDP. Their leadership and programme elements all scream weakness and vacillation, as in candy ass wuzzes.
Still, I don't see the Greens or the rump Lib Dems having a rats ass chance. But.... again.... in a volatile situation, where folks are desparately casting about for options and alternatives, I wouldn't want to put any serious amount of money down, against them either.
I don't disagree with Raif, I just think it's a way more open ballgame than even he suggests-, though the Fiberals are coming to the orgy with a soft-on, no doubt. Which doesn't score points.
My heart and mind are pleading with the confusion of the Great Unwashed electorate, for just enough reasoning power to give us a minority government, or at least a near even split either way. I don't think it will buy us much, 'cause I think the New Dems aren't worth much more than a rat's ass either, maybe a rat's ass and a stale beer, but it will buy us enough State vulnerability to buy time for folks to get their shit together-, maybe, and a situation where whoever gets in, has to kiss some Great Unwashed Butt.
In these times, and in the absence of a people's movement with cajones and marracas to drive the agenda, the best thing that could happen, in my typically modest view, :-) is a weak Capitalist State.
Anything but a strongly positioned Capitalist
State at his moment in time, of any party out there.
Plus it helps to create an even more fluid political and economic situation, which you know, we would-be radical social changers just adore. :-)
The best strategy for progressives is, I think, just don't vote for the (Neoconservative) Liberals. Otherwise known as The Liars Party. Other than that, just vote as smart as you can.
(Gonna be part of my strategy, as it always has been. What else can one do when all the "limited" choices of a Limited Democracy are bad.)
Coyote
7 years ago
I'll make one wee prediction, that in a way is a measure of the strangeness going on politically.
The old Social Credit stronghold in the Heartland/Hinterland is going to go NDP this election.
There may be exceptions, but the polling and the "feeling", I think, is moving that way.
Folks here in the old rural Social Credit strongholds have been hit so hard by this Neocon government, and the services and economic effects of their policies, that they are feeling a little desparate for a champion. And it looks and feels to me like they are going to sieze on the NDP to, hopefully, for them, be that Hurtland Knight. (The media is saying, ditto the Islands.)
Liberal gains will tend to be in that South-west corner, traditionally NDP, which, if true, will stand provincial politics, this time around, just about on its head.
(A measure of the popular political confusion and desparate casting about going on, that I referred to above.)
We'll see. I mean, it is not like it would be the first time I have ever been wrong. (I remember once before when I thought I was wrong, but it turned out I was right. :-)
allan
7 years ago
coyote, you went way out on a limb on your hurtland predictions, although, I must agree there is much anger on the streets.
But it pales beside your prediction on old Whacky's seat.
And there will be some splendidly poetic justice served if you're right given how the Campbell gang dragged Whacky's son away from his corn flakes long enough for a few photo-ops in Kelowna last week.
Think they swapped drinkin' stories when the mikes and cameras were switched off?
sirjohna
7 years ago
i do respect your passion for politics people, but there's no chance that the people of b.c. are going to hand this province back to the public sector labour unions.
nice try raif, but let's get real, your intent is to create intrigue so you can sell papers and radio time, and that's what these articles are really about.
Frank
7 years ago
Stuart, that's how I read it. I've been backing Carole James' strategy on the Tyee for about 6 months now. I think she's done very well and I stand by my earlier prediction.
However, it depends a lot on the debate. It doesn't matter who wins or loses it according to the talking heads.
In fact I predict Michael Smythe will say GC won it before the first 15 minutes is up.
What matters is how the voters find her. Many will be seeing her converse for the first time. If she comes across as well as she has in the year she spent stumping around the province then she'll be the next premier. I just hope GC goes on the attack.
The punisher
7 years ago
Rafe - As I lay here on the beach at the Great Cayman Island Casino Resort and read Tyee comments on my borrowed palm pilot, the more I realize why you ran out on your constituents many years ago.
Regards
The Punisher
freebc
7 years ago
I can certainly fall into the undecided category.
I see this as another election of desparation.
It's not who you like to vote for, but rather, you vote for who you dislike least.
I am weary of voting this way. It's like this stupid STV thing. Besides the fact that the vote counting is extremely complex, the surplus votes are the ones that get counted not knowing which of the votes are surplus. What if an election could have been decided by votes that were counted once but aren't surplus?
And really the issue with STV was candidate accountability. STV still won't give you that.
freebc
7 years ago
Sigh...obviously it's been a while.
They changed text formats on me.
Coyote
7 years ago
I must 'fess a wee bit of nervousness about my position on the proverbial limb here as well. And right away, even if I am right, it will not be a clean Socred Country sweep. Two "exceptions" that came immediately to mind were Kelowna and Penticton, though both are suffering in their own particular kinds of ways as well. They are tourist and retirement centres however, at the higher income end, which does tend to make those folks conservative-, though ordinary folks dependant on more than minimum wage jobs to hold their lives together, are there aplenty as weel.
Still, I will stand or fall on the fundamental premise that Heartland Country has been the hardest hit under the Liberals, and though electoral boundary changes will NOT LIKELY produce quite the same "seat" results it did in Wacko's time, the popular vote here will tend to the NDP.
And there is still a few weeks left, which is adequate time in this wierd environment, for more flip-flopping yet.
A close election, with "maybe" a small NDP majority, and the Heartland going to the NDP.
It will be a rock and hardplace result.
That's my story, and I'm sticking to it. :-) That I don't feel overwhelmingly confident about it is another story.
Now, bread day again. It's almost a zen kind of thing.
(Eh, Allan, I got a Bob Yak trailer to haul my camping gear with the bike. A great rig. Beats the panniers all to hell for really heavy loads.)
Coyote
7 years ago
If a bullshit Cayman sun actually exists, other than in a brownshirt's delusional demented brain, maybe it will fry this one to a Crispy Critter.
We can hope. :-)
dearpremier.ca
7 years ago
Jean Binette writes: I doubt that would happen. I'm sure that unlike a lowly woman hating coyote, the Punisher wears a hat while in the sun.
Nice toasted friends you have Mr. Rafe!
Budd Campbell
7 years ago
sirjohna offers this bit of pre-fabricated polarization fodder, "... there's no chance that the people of b.c. are going to hand this province back to the public sector labour unions."
It's part of the BC Liberal strategy, inherited from the Bill Bennett BC Socreds, of politically targetting and baiting public sector employees, most particularly teachers. The idea is to annoy these people so that they will openly campaign against the governing party. And then the governing party will pose as the guardian of the public trust against these greedy public sector unions. It's a clever bit of political theatre and it has often worked.
A good case in point is the joint strategy being played out over the "issue" of the teacher discipline registry that the Liberals are promoting. Educ Min Tom Christensen is a Liberal lawyer from Vernon who would dearly love to be posing on the political stage as a tough as nails Attorney General, effortlessly rounding up all the Law&Order vote. Confined to the softer world of the Educ Min, he has decided to erect his political profile for an eventual leadership drive by appearing to be tough as nails on dirty, perverted teachers.
Helped by the eager cooperation of the media, especially the Van Sun's veteran anti-teacher smear artists Janet Steffenhagen, Pete McMartin and of course, VAUGHN PALMER HIMSELF, Christensen has been portraying the BCTF as an instransigent, almost Marxian, special interest group, and himself and his party as enlightened advocates for pupils and parents, putting their safety first, and insisting that the BC College of Teachers, already politically "reformed" by his predecessor Christy Clark, isn't up to the job it's mandated by statute to do.
That this is all completely dishonest isn't stopping the media and it isn't stopping the Liberals, or sirjohna. The voters, however, may yet put a stop to it.
dearpremier.ca
7 years ago
Jean Binette writes: I can tell you this. If it were to happen, (Union Goverment) we might just as well slit our throats on May 18th. (especially seniors)
Nice friends you have Mr. Rafe!
Frank
7 years ago
"we might just as well slit our throats on May 18th"
Figuratively of course, unless one is already so depressed that they believe a reshuffling of less than 1% of the budget is a reason to take one's own life.
Stuart
7 years ago
You see above Jim proves my comments are bang on. Jim hates Carole and wants her to
Fall but really has nothing to say. Her platform is moderate costed and more to the middle.
She has put all the focus on Gordo and his lies, broken promises and failed platform. She has tagged the right wing party as the extremist party. As far as Carole goes she was been out on the street and facing people, her platform came out before the liberals, and what's Gordo scared of , Why do you think his nickname is bubble boy. Why are his candidates all hiding form real debates, don't worry Jim when the public gets to see Gordo's darting eyes, wooden and scripted gestures it will be game over. Carole comes across as sincere and honest and is not afraid , while Gordo is the Bubble Boy LOL , Gordo has more baggage then the YVR
While Carole, sorry Jim she is a nice moderate lady.
interior_bob
7 years ago
I appreciate the stimulus of Raif "relief" from the humdrum usual print election bumpf. Thanks.
My comment: if the Green party had the wherewithall to reach the younger eligible voter, look out. They have a message that appeals on a bunch of levels. The Green Book is full of good goals that anyone, young or old,(especially anyone with outdoor interest of any kind) can relate to.
MJ legalization is a hot potato that the B.C. Greens have in fact taken a position on (they endorse a federal government conclusion). This of course appeals to the younger voter and all of us old hypocrites who may "socialize" but not come out and endorse making it legal.
There are going to be some surprises (and I think Green ones)on May 17. If they hit 20% (and I think they have every chance)they will be on the road to the eventual goal of achieving the first Green government in history.
Is this not what makes B.C. politics exciting and of interest to political science students globaly.(Yes, and also makes the union bashing, business bashing reputation of our political climate a subject of derision world wide.)
Budd Campbell
7 years ago
dearpremier.ca has joined the chorus of union-baiting along with sirjohna, saying "I can tell you this. If it were to happen, (Union Goverment) we might just as well slit our throats on May 18th. (especially seniors)".
There is, of course, no foundation whatever to this remark, as dearpremier.ca well knows. It's just another way of saying that he personally dislikes unions and union members, for reasons that have nothing to do with economics or public finances or any other legitimate issue relating to public policy.
It's just a personal distaste, an aversion, a piece of political sociology, and while it has no intellectual foundation that doesn't matter. It's still enough to drive voters in certain directions, facts and analysis notwithstanding.
It's why the Premier is making such a big deal over a reported decline in days lost due to industrial disputes, and the Educ Min is trumpeting his teacher snoop site. The declines in labour disputes are trivial, the major fall-off having occured in the early to mid 1990s. But claiming to have reduced time lost to strikes is the Liberal way of again fingering organized labour as an enemy, a class of citizens not worthy of respect in middle-class homes. Again, it's political sociology at work, not an economic issue.
sirjohna
7 years ago
budd; your commentary on the bctf might be the biggest load of garbage i've seen yet on this thread. news flash bud: they are an intransigent, marxian special interest group.
even many teachers recognize that, and know that for this group of extremists the students don't come first, nor do the teachers, but ideology does. these people are about as left as you can go, but they're stuck in the past and their time in power is limited as the grey haired flower people move on. most parents in this province appreciate the work of teachers, but their attitude is tainted by the bctf's ridiculous rhetoric, and that's why the libs make a point of making a clear distinction between the teachers and the bctf leadership.
Coyote
7 years ago
The distinction is actually made, as any working class person with a lick of sense knows, to try and separate off as many teachers from their union as possible. It's as old a divide and conquer tactic as is known in class economic and political relations.
You did get out more than your usual grunt and belch few words this time, an all time brownshirt record, that must have Spinnettes head spinning. It was still more a true believer's propaganda rant than any serious or thoughtful presentation of a brownshirt point of view, but eh, considering the source, excellent.
It gives the Spinnette something to shoot for; she/he being the all time record holder for "Duh!" ranting.
Now, maybe if you bring along a little asswipe to your raving, we can teach you the next stage of your political evolution.
And "ideology", though it is fashionable to be maligned, where serious "intellectual activity" is viewed as a suitable subject of ridicule by the "Duhh!" set, is really just one's view of the world and explanation of reality, whether systematized and written down or not, which you folks have as well in spades, as much as anyone else. Yours is just more primitively developed and manifested, as is often found with children.
With luck, you will grow and mature ideologically, along with the Spinning Jeannie.
DowntownBrown
7 years ago
I signed on to this site because I was looking for intelligent political debate outside the regular news media. Certainly the columnists are providing it, but the level of posting is sad ... really sad. I might be a political neophyte, but I can recognize entrenched positions that aren't even remotely based on logic when I see them. And they're coming from both sides.
That said: would anyone like to offer me one good reason why I should vote for either the NDP or the BC Liberals in my riding? I've read all the material, I've been to two all-candidates meetings (which were more like mosh pits than political debate, thanks to the audience), and I'm still teetering on the fence. So here it is, folks -- you have the opportunity to influence a single voter one way or the other. I'll be curious to read what you all have to offer, but be warned -- "Gordon Campbell is Satan" or "Carole James is a Commie" type arguments are liable to push me in the other direction, or towards the Greens.
And while you're trying to think of a way to influence me (that is, if you care one way or the other), you might consider -- if an ordinary voter like myself is completely turned off by the polarized and empty rhetoric I read here, what does that say about how you folks might be influencing a million or so voters in the province who might still be undecided like me? The more I read about how "Gordo will sell us all out to big business" or "Carole James will sell us all out to big unions", the more angry I get about the fact that nobody seems to have any concrete logical reasoning to offer. And I bet there's a lot of people out there like me.
Let 'er rip.
anarcho
7 years ago
I think there is a very concrete reason to vote against Campbell, DowntownBrown. The reason should be obvious in the economic and social damage that they have committed. It is this damage that makes people here so angry, not committment to some ideological position. Admittedly the NDP is not much of an alternative, but even if they undo just a little bit of the damage done by Campbell it will be worth the change.
anarcho
7 years ago
Sirjohna, Teachers are marxist? What are you smokin there pal? If only they were!
Coyote
7 years ago
Good one, anarcho. In bloody deed. But it's too high of praise sirj. You've smoked one too many J again, and have totalled yourself.
As for DowntownBrown-, do your own homework and make up your own mind. You're on your own, the same as the rest of us-, and as much entitled to your views.
If you've got something to raise or say, spit it out lad. You'll know soon enough what folks here think of it.
Budd Campbell
7 years ago
sirjohna posted this statement earlier today:
"budd; your commentary on the bctf might be the biggest load of garbage i've seen yet on this thread. news flash bud: they are an intransigent, marxian special interest group."
Here sirjohna is explicitly stating that the BC Teachers Federation is a Marxist controlled union. I simply want to ask him what makes him think that?
To me, this statement is beyond belief, and I have to say, I do not think sirjohna really believes it either. I think it's just a piece of pre-arranged hyperbole that he and other Liberals are marketing, largely to the Bible Belt vote, for electoral purposes. I don't think the Liberals seriously believe that the BCTF is a communist union. In fact, I don't think even Tom Christensen or Janet Steffenhagen or Pete McMartin believe anything quite as ludicrously false as that.
interior_bob
7 years ago
to Downtown...pick up a copy of the Green Book. It is intelligent, non-union/business bashing and informative.
There are some issues they do not grasp as yet, but it is an easy platform to follow and I think much food for thought.
One dandy: a recycle cost component for all products from manufacture to disposal. That one could see the "disposable market",for one, dry up in short order.
The fear the Greens express is not domination by one or the other of the major combatants (business/labour) but that unless we tackle some real environmental issues, all of us will lose.
BEAUTIFUL (GREEN) B.C.....A reason to vote OTHER than Liberal or NDP? Perhaps.
sirjohna
7 years ago
anarcho; thanks for the offer but i don't engage. afraid that the altered state may turn me into a lefty. by the way, i didn't say that teachers were marxists, i said that the executive of the bctf is marxist. why don't you ask a former president, david chudnovsky, who's now running for the ndp, that same question?
anne cameron
7 years ago
Dear DowntownBrown:
I didn't much care for Socred when it was old man Bennett, cared for it even less when it was his Brylcreem-haired heir, liked it even less when we had Bill Van Der MeinKampf and have no use at all for it now that it is disguised as Liberal. I object to the evangelical christian-right influence, I'm sick of seeing Corporations ravage the province and a hidden agenda is just a passive euphemism for LIE. I have one time voted Green, in protest, because the NDP candidate was Flip Wilson and I couldn't hold my nose long enough to vote for him, he's been everything from Liberal to anything else you'd care to name and political opportunism stinks. I don't like the Green wishywashy bafflegab which passes for "economic platform", and I lost any respect I had for Ms Carr when she had her hissy fit because she didn't get the kind of rep-by-pop choice she wanted. The citizens coalition went for STV which I do not understand and which sounds to me like a sexually transmitted virus, but I'll probably vote for it simply because if what you're doing isn't working try anything at all else. I am completely underwhelmed by the NDP but I suspect we will never dust off the CCF Manifesto and get back to something I could wholeheartedly support so I will vote NDP because there is no alternative which doesn't put my gag reflex into overdrive.
Generally speaking I think Rafe Mair is an old gasbag, the one time I agreed with him I was so shocked I had to go into the bathroom to check the mirror and ensure it was, in fact, still me.
This article is just gas. He's back and forth on all sides of the fence and trying to make us believe he has some idea of that of which he writes. I thought he was a fascist prick when he was a politician and he hasn't given me much reason to change my mind.
I don't want another four years of Liberal sellouts. The broken promises are legion. What has been done to the most vulnerable (and, sadly, least visible) in society is truly criminal. I don't believe we "can't afford" social programmes...if we can afford to have these witherdicks sitting in a hot tub in Whistler planning how to sell off BC Rail, we can afford bus passes for seniors and some decent protection for foster kids.
I do not enjoy paying taxes, but I pay them and I don't whine about it. I'll pay more taxes, and do it with a smile on my wrinkled old face IF the increase is to fund social programmes and not give tax breaks to those who are already so wealthy it is obscene.
I'll vote NDP, if unenthusiastically, because I have grandchildren and I do not want them living in the crap which has inundated Amurikkka. The far right religious storm troopers are organized and the rest of us had better do the same.
Don't know if this will in any way help you with your decision. I have a tee shirt, it's aged now, and doesn't fit very well any more. It has a picture of TC Douglas and the quote "It is not too late my friend to build a better world".
That's why I will not vote for Gordon Campbell.
dearpremier.ca
7 years ago
Jean Binette writes: You were wrong downtown brown, as many before you. However, you should feel lucky that the PIMPMIESTER is long gone.
Regarding the so-called "columnists", I wouldn't put too much stock in what they write, it's mostly misplaced facts based on allegation.
As for me personally, I'm going to go ahead and vote Liberal and plan to move forward and beat the snot out of them after the election (if necessary). I would urge you to do the same.
In the meantime back to another fish story ...
Aloha! Rafe - nice friends you have.
freebc
7 years ago
I see that the DRBC was banned from participating in the debate tonight. A real swing at democracy I'd say.
Do you think there's a chance that the big three don't want any significant change?????????
After looking at there stuff, I may consider them as an option.
Someone check it out and let me know what you think. I'm interested in your opinions. DRBC.com
Fii
7 years ago
Stuart- re: your first post, I admire your faith in humankind. I believe people- especially those who, as Anne says, "are so wealthy it is obscene" don't care. They really, truly don't. But yeah, stay positive- see you at the polls.
anne cameron
7 years ago
Well, I watched the Great Debate last night. It reminded me of coitus interruptus. Great big to-do over five times the square root of sweet fuck all.
Was there a "winner"?
I saw three losers.
Nobody wanted to get anywhere near the sale of BC Ferries...well, Gordy wouldn't want to for obvious reasons, Carole didn't dare in case someone said "fast cats" and Adrienne didn't think of it in time...no real grappling over the sale of BC Rail..just more of what we've already had too much of so far.
BC Mary
7 years ago
I'm still haunted by old Crazy-Eyes Campbell. Last night's debate was the first time I've ever watched him speaking.
Surely others, too, noticed his eyes? The whites showed. Sometimes he looked sideways at the camera as if offering a sly deal. Other times he gazed into space overtop of the camera -- was there a teleprompter?
All this highlighted by those clown-red cheeks, for gosh sakes, and the raggedly hair.
It left such a disquieting impression that I clicked onto Arnold Snarb's suggested URL on personality disorders (see Tyee's Watching Last Night's Debate comments) ... and, call me crazy, but ... well, give it a try. It's a clinical description of a narcissistic personality disorder.
I can't shake off the feeling that there may be a simple answer to why things have gone so wrong in British Columbia.
dearpremier.ca
7 years ago
Jean Binette writes: - Ten years of NDP Goverment, that's what went wrong.
Sumac
7 years ago
Hmmm. I think there's a chance, an outside one though, of the Greens doing really well and maybe even winning in West Van Garibaldi. This is a riding where the NDP frankly has no chance, but the Horseshoe Bay folks are mighty ticked off at the Liberals right now. So who do conservative types vote for when they're mad at the right wing party? Green!?
This is BC. Stranger things have happened!
Bailey
7 years ago
I was reading back a few days here, and caught DowntownBrown's lament. I feel embarrassed at the fact that he's so right.
All I can say is, it's usually better. quite good really. Even the heckling is usually a more superiour sort of heckling. But lately the site's been under attack by a few names who seem to share the same habit of mis-spelling the same words.
They are suspected of being the same guy running a diversion from several computers or maybe several different e-mail accounts. I favor the several machines in an office theory, because one of them went on "holidays" just when that new virus struck.
I figure he'll be in the islands until the tech support guy brings him back.