Opinion

Running Scared for the Presidency

Clinton used to say "I feel your pain." The Democrat mantra this time: 'I feel your fear.' (Please welcome The Tyee's new U.S. election-watcher.)

By Michael Fellman, 19 Jan 2004, TheTyee.ca

clark

If readers of The Tyee indulge me, I intend to write something of a journal during the American election year.

Let me put some of my cards on the table. I am an American-Canadian here since 1969, and equally alienated from my two societies. I grew up a progressive Democrat during the Joe McCarthy years in Wisconsin, and naturally gravitated to the NDP when I came up here.  I am no longer a card carrying member of the NDP, whose intellectual collapse alienated me, although the swing rightward of the Liberals leaves me without any party identification.

Rather than a post-modern ironist about politics, I am a disillusioned idealist, with a tiny pocket of me secretly hoping to be disabused of my disappointments. But I am a professional historian who believes that detachment is golden. As I age I find this state is not difficult to maintain, (alas).

Charisma and snake oil

This evening a bunch of old white folks in Iowa will finally start off the flurry of Democratic primaries dedicated to selecting the most likely candidate to beat George Bush II. Unlike Canadian election campaigns, which are mercifully short (ours will be folded into April and May this year), American ones go on forever--it has been a year thus far, with ten months to go.  So endurance counts for a lot when conducting a high stakes activity notorious for day to day volatility. So does that certain je ne sais pas quoi that ignites the eventual victor's fires.  Call it charisma.  Call it snake-oil peddling.  Whatever, as my students say.

Two predictions.  One: Good old Richard Gephardt, the capable but aging Missourian, favorite of the labour unions (membership at 8.6 percent of the private work force), who still opposes NAFTA for exporting American jobs, will finish fourth tomorrow and soon be gone from the race.

Two: Howard Dean, the front-runner, will begin a slide, recover somewhat in New Hampshire, the next primary, and then crash in the subsequent round of primaries in South Carolina and elsewhere.

Dean is lost on me: he seems like a chippy little flake who lacks that presidential gravitas.  What he ignited is far more interesting than he is--an internet political revolution that has engaged tens of thousands of youngish people in a manner previously untapped by the political process.  That is another topic, one to which I may return, although I don't understand the new dynamics very well.  However, this new medium created a flash in a pan rather than an unstoppable force. 

I am not quite sure why Bill Bradley and Al Gore hopped aboard to support Dean at so early a date--their reputations and their influence will decline dramatically in the Democratic Party due to their premature bandwagoning.  Or so I guess. Wily old Bill Clinton knew better, and he has kept his powder dry.

Dean's competition

Who will this early round leave after several fringe candidates quickly disappear, followed by Dean? Three white men of considerable talent, untested nationally:

Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, very presidential, very aloof, good foreign affairs and national security credentials;

Senator John Edwards of North Carolina, a teddy bear sure to be popular with women voters as he is conciliatory and kind of sweet on the surface, barely covering blind ambition (but then immodesty is necessary for all of these guys);

General Wesley Clark, very military, very smart, still relatively unknown to the public.

Warming up to the General idea

Any of these three could catch fire.  Or perhaps none will ignite and the Democrats will go into their July convention without a clear choice and for once the convention will amount to something other than an anointment.

My hunch is Wesley Clark.  He does not give the appearance of a professional, insider politician (although no one becomes a four-star general who cannot play bruising infighting politics--a quality that made the brilliant Clark unpopular with the other, rather stupid military high brass).  He can light up audiences, he has clear opinions, and I think that most Democrats are hoping that he could tear George Bush apart in a debate on national security and military matters, their area of maximum fear.

Fear is the point. The Democrats, like many liberal-minded and moderate Americans are running very scared about the George II regime.  Fear-mongering, a draconian home security policy, a failure to create jobs in the economy while rewarding the rich with unneeded tax cuts, a still brutal war based on lies and maintained by deceit, an imperial fuck you approach to all other nations  (excepting the obsequious Blairland), an in your face Evangelical religiosity, all delivered with smarmy arrogance, have enraged Democrats. Many secretly think that the right f-word to use about the Bush administration is fascism.

So the only real question for those Iowa Democratic primary voters, as for others to come, will be who can most likely beat George II.  Yes the economy is important, as is right to choice, appropriate Supreme Court justices and all the rest, but the gut-wrenching, bottom-line question is war and peace, expansionist empire or national equipoise, liberty or repression in the name of security.

Brink of despair

That anyone could believe in George II frightens Democrats. That as of this writing a considerable majority of Americans buy his line and appear ready to re-elect him drives them to the brink of despair. But they are girding their loins for a fight and they want the best warrior to lead them.  Hence Clark.

I may be entirely wrong about this.  Stay tuned.

And you had better believe that this matters to Canadians.

Historian Michael Fellman, author of several books on the Civil War including The Making of Robert E. Lee, is Director of the Graduate Liberal Studies Program at Simon Fraser University.  [Tyee]

8  Comments:

Login or register to post comments

  • Dana Owen Still (not verified)

    8 years ago

    Yes, indeedy do, it certainly does matter to Canadians and this particular Canadian will be watching with bated, albeit un-held, breath. Congratulations Professor Fellman on your prescience regarding the Iowa caucuses. I look forward to reading your commentary. I wonder if you are aware of what Wesley Clark’s campaign engineered on ebay. Do you recall a couple of weeks back when Clark appeared at some Town Hall meeting somewhere wearing an argyle sweater? The sweater became a story the next day in various media outlets. Well, the General apparently decided that he wouldn’t wear that sweater any more but just throwing it away or hiding it in the back of the closet wasn’t the thing to do. So the sweater is up for auction on ebay. Here: http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=3655267737&category=39721 (cut and paste into your browser address bar if the link isn’t live). The proceeds from the sale will be going to Liberty House, a transitional shelter for homeless veterans in New Hampshire. So far the bidding is up to nearly $16,500US. The bidding is open until the 24th and the primary is 3 days later on the 27th. Expect a photo-op on the 25th or 26th with many words about Bush’s neglect of veterans. So creative use of the World Wide Web isn’t restricted to the Deanies. I expect we’ll be seeing more web usage from all the candidates.

  • Michael Fellman (not verified)

    8 years ago

    Thanks for the comment. I'll bet that General Clark had a smart, very young staffer who thought up that bit of guerrilla theatre. Very clever. Maybe we should track the ways the new media are employed in th epolitical arena. I confess to feeling a tiny bit puffed up that I predicted Dean and Gephardt. I will write another piece, probably, after New Hampshire and before the first big round of primaries February 3, including South Carolina and MIssouri. Will Edwards sell in the North; will Kerry sell in the South,etc? Strange that a fashion parade leads to nominations.

  • Dana Owen Still (not verified)

    8 years ago

    It's certainly becoming more of a race. Although the course and species are still in question. I'm going to be presumptious here so please forgive me if I overstep. New media are already an enormous part of this campaign and have been so for over 2 years in various guises. www.moveon.org ; www.truemajority.org ; www.centerforamericanprogress.org and www.mediawhoresonline.com (the source of my information about Wesley Clark's sweater) just to name a few.

  • Colin Smith (not verified)

    8 years ago

    There is only one thing to be said about Wesley Clark's judgement. When the NATO forces were moving into Kosovo the Russians went ahead and siezed the airport. Wesley Clark ordered British General Sir Micheal Jackson to kick them out. Jackson replied "Fuck you, I'm not going to start World War 3" and refused. Is this the man you want to run the U.S.A? There is only one candidate who opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq and that was Howard Dean. Because they supported an illegal invasion of a country that presented no tangible threat to the U.S, because they bought into the lies, disinformation and fear-mongering that made that act of aggression possible, none of the other candidates deserve to be elected. The American people are still being duped by a compliant media into believing that there is a connection between 9/11 and Saddam Hussein, but a significant majority will evetually wake up, and then they will question who in the Democratic Party climbed on to the bandwagon and are therefore complicit in the killing, maiming and devastation. Hopefully then they will punish the pack and honour the reward the lone dissenter.

  • Jay Currie (not verified)

    8 years ago

    Let's not count Dean out quite yet. The General is certainly a fall back position but there are still lots of nitwits who really do believe Iraq was about oil and that Bush/Hitler is a trope which will sell. (You might like my now rather dated American Spectator piece, The Children's Hour. Which I would link to if David would get html enabled on thsese comments.) Dean simply lost it last night and, other than the 20 somethings he thought he was pumping up, made it clear he was entirely unfit to lead America. Hissy fits are not, as the soccer mums would say, apppropriate, for men who have an atomic football within arm's length. Various political wags have referred to Clark as Dean 2.0. Seems to fit. Sir Micheal had the measure of the man in Kosovo. It does not matter how liberal you are, judgement does matter. Looking forward to your reflections: you can read mine at www.jaycurrie.com.

  • Dana Owen Still (not verified)

    8 years ago

    While I'm not without my preference too I'm also equally interested in how the entire drama itself unfolds this year. How each party, indeed how the various factions *within* each party, deploys it's assets and engages it's constituencies. We can't vote in primaries and caucuses, we can't even really influence the vote, so our clamour toward one another as regards the virtues and vices of specific candidates is at best gratifyingly recreational. The USA is a profoundly more conservative country than is Canada. Virtually all of our small "c" as well as large "C" conservative politicians or candidates still verge on being too liberal for US politics. As for Canadian liberals or social democrats, well...I find it good to remember this every time I start finding myself getting distressed at US politics. There's nothing *I* can do about the choices *they* make except escalate my blood pressure.

  • Dana Owen Still (not verified)

    8 years ago

    http://www.campaigndesk.org/ is the website for the Columbia Journalism Review's new service. In their own words: "American democracy is built around election campaigns that voters see and hear mainly through the press. Thus is the quality of our democracy directly connected to the quality of the coverage of those campaigns. Columbia Journalism Review and others who work to improve that coverage by pointing out flaws and strengths have, until now, been at a disadvantage. Our analysis often came too late: after the voting public had already acted on the basis of what the press had told it. CJR's Campaign Desk offers a way around this problem. Using the power of the World Wide Web, The Campaign Desk attempts to get inside the news cycle and enrich campaign journalism in real time. Our goal is to straighten and deepen campaign coverage almost as it is being written and produced. The Desk is politically nonpartisan; its only biases are toward accuracy, fairness, and thoroughness. Its focus is not on what politicians say and do, but on how the press is presenting (or not presenting) the political story to the public. It will monitor not just news reporting, but also political analysis and commentary, assessing the accuracy of the facts behind the argument and the fairness of the framing. It will be a resource not only for conscientious journalists, but also for all citizens who want the best possible version of a free press at a time when it matters most. "

  • Robert Ireland (not verified)

    8 years ago

    As one that votes in US elections I appreciate reading other folks' take on our political races. I found the comments on the differences between Canadian consevatives and US conservatives amusing but accurate. I also found the consternation at the difference in length of our election process and that of Canada strange. Citizens of the US are often accused of having a 60 second attention span, yet the one place where this is demonstrably not true, our election process, is where we get dinged. ;-) Thanks again for the different perspective.

    • No best comments selected by an editor for this story yet. To see all comments, click the All Comments tab, above.
    • The discussion for this story is closed. No more comments can be added.