Trudeau's 'Nuclear Honeymoon' Now Fading, Pollster Finds

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's hold on the Canadian psyche appears to be returning to more normal levels, an Ekos poll suggests.

The Liberals have dropped 12 percentage points since the beginning of the year when it comes to support for the direction the party is taking Canada, according to the poll conducted following the federal budget for iPolitics.

Ekos president Frank Graves said the decline comes after Trudeau's government posted near record levels of support in the early days of its mandate.

"It was more of a nuclear honeymoon that was well beyond normal. It appears that it is starting to fade a bit and they are coming back to earth."

Ekos found the percentage of respondents who felt the Liberal government was headed in the right direction had dropped from 68 per cent near the beginning of the year to 56 per cent. While the number of people who felt the government is headed in the wrong direction rose from 32 per cent to 44 per cent, it was still outweighed by the number of respondents who felt Trudeau's government was headed in the right direction.

People who had changed their views about the government policies were equally glum about the direction of the country, with the number of people saying the country was headed in the right direction dropping to 55 per cent from 68 per cent and the number of people saying Canada is headed in the wrong direction rising to 45 per cent from 32 per cent.

However, the decline in the number of people questioning the direction Trudeau is taking Canada doesn't seem to have had a big impact on the level of support for his party. If a federal election had been held between March 24 and 29 when the poll was conducted, 42.1 per cent of respondents said they would have voted for the Liberals, 31.7 per cent for the Conservatives, 11.7 per cent for the NDP, 6.4 per cent for the Green Party and 4.8 per cent for the Bloc Québécois.

Discontent focused in Alberta, Saskatchewan

The poll also reveals sharp regional differences when it comes to just how happy Canadians are with the direction Trudeau is taking the country.

The highest support for the Liberal government's direction was in Atlantic Canada where the Liberals swept every riding in last fall's election. The poll found that 73.9 per cent of respondents believe the government is headed in the right direction with only 16.9 per cent opposed.

In British Columbia, 61.9 per cent said the government was headed in the right direction and only 26.2 per cent were unhappy.

While the Liberals made a breakthrough in Alberta in October, electing four MPs, the province had the highest rate of respondents who say Trudeau's headed in the wrong direction. The poll found 66.2 per cent were dissatisfied and only 28.5 per cent supported the direction the Liberal government is taking.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the number of people who thought Trudeau was headed in the wrong direction outstripped those happy with where he is headed.

"A lot of the discontent is focused on Saskatchewan and Alberta who are unhappy with the government," said Graves, pointing out that the economy of both provinces has taken a hit.

In vote-rich Ontario, which rewarded the Liberals with 80 of the province's 121 seats, a bare majority of 51 per cent supported Trudeau's direction, compared with 45.3 per cent who opposed it.

The results were slightly better for Trudeau in Quebec where 53.8 per cent said he was going in the right direction compared with 42.3 per cent who said he was going the wrong way.

The high definition interactive voice response poll of 2,019 respondents is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, with a higher margin of error for regional breakdowns.

Much rests on change for middle class

Graves said a couple of factors could explain the findings -- the current economy and the unnaturally high level of support Trudeau enjoyed when he first came to power.

"Nobody really expected that any government was going to stay up at 50 points in the polls and have the kind of numbers we were seeing (including) the highest ever score on direction of federal government."

"All of that coming in the midst of one of the gloomiest outlooks on the economy that we have ever seen. Eventually, those two things aren't sustainable."

That said, the Liberal government's numbers and trajectory are better than those of the former Conservative government's, Graves said.

The dip in support for the Trudeau government's direction doesn't appear to be caused by its decision to rack up a higher than expected deficit in its first budget but the projected deficit seems to have galvanized the Conservative vote, he said.

Graves said support for the government's direction in the longer term will likely depend on its ability to deliver on its promise to improve conditions for Canada's middle class.

"The challenge will be can they actually show that they are making progress on the grand objective of restarting middle class progress. I think that is where they will be judged ultimately."