News

NDP Turnout Surges in Advance Poll

In four ridings, New Democrats appear motivated.

By Russ Francis, 17 May 2005, TheTyee.ca

voting line

A record number of voters turned out for the advance polls held over four days last week.

Elections B.C. reports that 204,651 voters cast their ballots during May 11 – 14. That’s an 87 per cent increase over the 2001 advance poll. While there are now nearly 700,000 more British Columbians registered to vote than there were four years ago, that amounts to just a one-third increase in the register of voters.

In other words, the boost in this year’s advance poll turnout appears to be mostly the result of greater voter interest in the election.

But who were the advance voters? Was it the business community getting out its troops, terrified of an NDP victory? Or were previously lackadaisical New Democrats sensing that they might actually have a chance of forming the government?

An analysis by The Tyee of voter turnout for the advance polls in four key ridings suggests it’s a bit of both, but with New Democrats significantly more motivated.

The Tyee examined advance voting for 2001 and 2005 in two safe Liberal seats--Vancouver-Quilchena and Vancouver-Langara—and in two safe NDP seats, Vancouver-Mt. Pleasant and Vancouver-Hastings.

NDP voters motivated

In both elections, advance turnout was considerably higher in the two Liberal ridings, perhaps because their residents are more likely to have flexible work hours.

However, the increase in advance turnout was somewhat larger in the two NDP seats, suggesting that NDP voters are more motivated for this election than Liberals.

In Vancouver-Quilchena, precisely double the number of voters cast advance ballots in 2005 than did four years ago. For Vancouver-Langara, the increase was 92 per cent.

However, the jump was even bigger for the two NDP ridings.

The advance poll voters increased by 113 per cent in Vancouver-Mt. Pleasant and by a huge 175 per cent in Vancouver-Hastings.

In summary, to judge by the comparisons of these four ridings, New Democrats appear to be showing significantly more interest in this election than Liberals.

Another way to look at the changes is through the percentage of registered voters in each riding taking part in the advance poll.

In 2001, 5.4 per cent of Vancouver-Quilchena registered voters took part in the advance poll, growing to 8.6 per cent in 2005. Advance turnout in Vancouver-Langara jumped from 4.4 percent four years ago to 6.1 per cent in 2005.

For the NDP’s Vancouver-Mt. Pleasant, advance turnout increased from 4.2 per cent in 2001 to 6.2 per cent this month. For Vancouver-Hastings, the increase was from 2.4 per cent to 4.9 per cent.

More motivated

One longtime political analyst, who has worked for a number of B.C. governments, says the Tyee figures suggest that both sides are now more motivated to vote than four years ago.

“That’s significant,” said the analyst, who asked that his name not be used. “It suggests a lot of close races.” But given the much larger increase in advance polls in the NDP ridings, it also suggests that New Democrats are notably more motivated than Liberals.

Given that even premier Gordon Campbell is emphasizing the importance of voter turnout, the NDP has reason for optimism in the advance voter turnout.

Russ Francis is a veteran political reporter based in Victoria.  [Tyee]

13  Comments:

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  • ameynert

    7 years ago

    Comments on "NDP Turnout Surges in Advance Poll"

    Wishful thinking, I suspect. I'm still not holding my breath for an NDP government come tomorrow morning. McMartin's not going to be off by more than 5 seats.

    On a happy note ... from the sounds of things out here at UBC at lunchtime, voting is on people's minds. I overheard more than one conversation where students were convincing an apathetic friend to go exercise their right to vote, and several explanations (all surprisingly clear!) of the BC-STV voting system.

  • Truman Green

    7 years ago

    don't worry, amynert ndp'll win.

  • ameynert

    7 years ago

    I'm feeling pessimistic about the BC sheep, Tru. I suspect the whole strike non-issue will have scared a lot of the undecideds into the Liberal camp. For myself, sadly, I don't respect either of the two main contenders in my riding (Vancouver-Burrard). I found myself in the position of voting against the one I like the least, because I really can't stand the sanctimonious hypocrite. I hate doing that, but even more do I hate the thought of wasting my vote on the respectable independent candidate I truly prefer.

    I voted yes to STV so that maybe next time I can vote FOR a candidate and be reassured that if the one I like best doesn't meet the quota, then there's a good chance that my second or third choice will. I will be virtually guaranteed to have someone representing my riding who shares my views and whom I can feel comfortable about backing.

  • Banquos ghost

    7 years ago

    The NDP has a better chance of forming government than STV has of getting the votes it needs.

    Too bad too. Once again the people of BC will prove how tenuous a grasp they have of the difference between the interests of the elites and the interests of citizens.

    I cast my pointless ballot for the NDP here in North Van/Seymour. We will continue to have the greatest underperforming and unproductive empty suit in the Legislature.

  • crazyfrazy

    7 years ago

    Perhaps Liberal supporters got complacent in the advance polls when they saw opinion polls (like the one in the Globe and Mail) that show how far ahead they are in this election. It perhaps made NDPers more determined to get their vote. Banquos, don't feel too dismayed about your "pointless" ballot, because I too cast my NDP vote in the same riding. If more people think like us, it might make a difference, but if not, at least it makes you feel better to have exercised your right.

  • Gary

    7 years ago

    I'd be very interested in seeing the results here in the South Cariboo. I see a lot of seniors in my area turning out.If NDP don't win it would still be interesting to see if the totals changed since 2001.

  • cameroon

    7 years ago

    Here's hoping that the increased turnout is due to an increased interest in voting STV in and the Liberals out.

    Still, given the consistency in polls (if you rule out G&M's) showing Liberals leading, it will take 110% voter turnout to push the NDP to victory. I am happy with anything over 28 seats for NDP. Over 30 means people in general are really mad at the Libs; under 28 means the NDP got a flat tire in the last week.

    On top of this, we should all be happy that voter turnout is rising considerably, for whatever reason. This inevitably leads to a better society, doesn't it?

  • redrivergirl

    7 years ago

    It feels scary 'cause they stack all the deck in their favour. I heard briefly on the radio that they had one of the ferries docked by the highway today. but they said they were just moving it. Ha!

    It is the 'new to BC' vote that I am worried about. The rest of us, who aren't die hard socreds knew immediately,we'd have to vote them out next election.

    Cheer up. No matter how well we do, it is a success when faced with such a , unethical bunch backed by a formally non-partisan civil service structure, an elimination of governmental watchdogs and a media who might as well be the Liberal party press gang.

    I am optimistic. But, if wrong, my small consolation will be that they will have to wear their scandals because of an increased opposition. So, it won't be the free ride they've hitherto enjoyed. And, most of them are of such poor character and so intellectually dull, that they won't be able to take it.

  • Bailey

    7 years ago

    Also, please don't forget that the trials are about to begin. Four Liberal cabinet ministers resigned just as they were being linked to organised crime, money laundering and fraud throught their Aides.

    Plus the fake party cards worth tens of thousands of dollars sent from the charged ministerial aides to the disgraced Federal Liberal Party, which has this week been exposed as having a "Big Boss" named Joe you shouls stay on the good side of, who goes to war with those who cross him and does feats of legerdemain with envelopes of unmarked small bills in restaurants.

    The Liberal position is based on the complete silence about these looming scandals and criminal charges in the press. When they begin, even a Liberal majority will be hard pressed to hold on to power.

    Even if we do see a Liberal majority this time, which I can't quite believe considering how many who voted for them they screwed over, I predict it will be short lived and painful.

  • allan

    7 years ago

    Just came back from wrapping up a day of outside scrutineering and encouraging NDP supporters to vote.

    In this one polling area in Kamloops the NDP's identified strong support was 85-90 percent getting to the polling stations.
    In 2001, in the same polling area, the identified voters who actually did never went over 50 percent in any pole I'm aware of.

    I'm not predicting anything based on those numbers other than the fact NDP supporters were much more upbeat and determined to get change than they were four years ago.

    Many people called were quite assertive in saying they voted for NDP candidate Doug Brown, who is challenging Claude Richmond.

  • StandupforBC

    7 years ago

    I'm happy..that my candidate won in Malahat Juan de Fuca. Time for change. :) At least the Liberals can't deny official party status to the Opposition now. And they might even have to behave themselves and obey the laws of BC. hehehe that makes me happy too!

  • Krispy

    7 years ago

    The real reason for increased turnout at the advance polls? For the first time, with a fixed election date, the voting cards sent out by Elections BC had time, dates and places of all advance polls. This was not possibe in the past, when elections were called at the whim of the Premier.

    More people voted in advance polls, because it was more convenient for them to do so. Increased access to voting and registration will go a long way toward increasing turnout. Now if only we had a REAL proportional representation electoral system, rather than that half-baked STV boondoggle, we'd really be getting somewhere.

  • I Say

    7 years ago

    Russ Francis is a veteren doofus!!

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