Second Chance, or Last One, for New Democrats

When B.C.'s New Democrats begin to gather informally in the bar of Vancouver's Westin Bayshore Hotel today, they might better be calling it the Last Chance Saloon. This is a make-it-or-break-it leadership convention for the party that ruled B.C. for a decade before crashing into near-oblivion in the 2001 election.

Get it right and the NDP is likely to be headed for strong Official Opposition status in the 2005 vote.

Although it's not likely, the party could even return to government if some horrendous scandal were to hit Gordon Campbell's Liberals in the next 18 months.

Get it wrong and the B.C. Liberals could be in a position to emulate their federal counterparts - a virtual dynasty because the Opposition to them is weak, fractured and ineffectual.

In most political parties, that would make it a slam-dunk. Poll to figure out which candidate is seen by the public as the strongest and best opponent to go up against Campbell, and that person should be the next party leader.

But the New Democratic Party is not a party like most others. It never has been, not since the days of the Regina Manifesto that led to the creation of the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation back in the 1930s Depression. And as the 800-odd delegates to the leadership convention are deciding who should take over the reins of the party, they will also be deciding, at least for the next few years, the answer to that decades-old NDP question: is the NDP in the 21st century a true political party, or should it remain true to its roots as a social movement and a co-operative venture with the organized trade union movement?

Conscience or compromise?

An increasing number of New Democrat members appear to have reached the conclusion, albeit reluctantly, that the party's only hope of returning to government some day is to take on many of the trappings of other political parties. That, they realize, means that there will have to be compromises - compromises with the labour wing of the party, compromises with the environmental movement, compromises between what the truest of NDP values would dictate and what the B.C. citizenry will accept as public policy. Many will admit, at least privately, that one reason for the party's devastation in the last election was the unwillingness of the Glen Clark administration to compromise on some issues it held dear, in particular "special deals" with trade unions with whom it was particularly friendly.

However, the New Democrats still harbour large numbers of members to whom the word 'compromise' is anathema. They see the party still as the outcome of a grand social movement, one designed to bring the ideals of democratic socialism to the citizens of B.C. and Canada. Many of them are second- and even third-generation supporters of the CCF/NDP. They see their job as being to provide the conscience of the political process - the social conscience and sometimes the moral conscience. If they can convince enough people to vote for them that they could form a government, well and good, but the desire to win election, they believe, should never overtake the party's most basic principles and values.

Among the four serious contenders for the NDP leadership, both these views of the party's future have strong spokespersons. The candidate who has been advocating most strongly change that would move the NDP closest to the centre is Nils Jensen, a municipal councillor from the Victoria suburb of Oak Bay who has never run for provincial office before. Indeed Jensen joined the NDP only days before announcing his candidacy, arguing that it would have been improper for him to have joined any political party in his job as a Crown counsel. (He's now on a leave of absence.)

Jensen argues that B.C.'s citizens currently do share many of the party's values and do believe the party cares about ordinary citizens, but just doesn't trust the NDP to govern the province after the numerous problems that arose during its tenure during the 1990s.

"I believe that to form the next government, the NDP must take a big step toward the centre of the political spectrum," Jensen wrote in an article for the Victoria Times-Colonist. "That does not mean abandoning our traditional values - opportunity, equality, social justice and sustainability."

However, he argues, it does mean rejecting the "polarized, overly dogmatic and ideological nature of political debate in this province." He was also the first candidate to stress re-evaluating the NDP's ties with organized labour which, he believes, have not proven beneficial in the last few years.

On the other side of the debate is Steve Orcherton, who served as a backbencher in the Clark government for the riding of Victoria-Hillside. Previously he spent seven years as secretary of the Victoria Labour Council. Orcherton makes no secret of the fact that he wants to turn the NDP away from its moves towards compromise and more centrist politics and back to its traditional roots.

"For too long, the New Democratic Party has been moving towards the 'mushy middle'," he wrote in presenting his platform in the Times-Colonist. "Enough is enough … I am running to restore our party's focus, recapture the values that always made us strong and revive the principles that built our party for more than seven decades."

The strong views of both Jensen and Orcherton make their camps an obvious home for those party delegates who feel especially passionately on one side of the debate or the other. Yet neither is likely to win, because most party members realize that a victory for either would be likely to tear the party apart.

Jensen's campaign has attracted interest from some past high-profile cabinet ministers, but his lack of roots in the party will worry many. It's one of the unwritten rules of the NDP that you're expected to "pay your dues" and demonstrate your commitment to New Democrat values over the long haul before going for a high-profile position like party leader. And delegates understand that a Jensen victory might well cause those who, like Orcherton, see the NDP as a social movement, to abandon the party and find some other way to advance their political cause.

Jensen picking up steam

All the same, the Jensen campaign has picked up enough steam in the last couple of weeks that he might possibly run a credible second. Interestingly, he's even attracted some support from labour - in particular, from unions that realize that it's not to anyone's advantage to have the NDP seen as being a captive of big unions, especially big public sector unions.

Orcherton has actually received fewer endorsements than any of the other three major candidates in the race. However, he is likely to fare better during the actual balloting on the floor on Sunday morning than his support in the party over-all would indicate. That's because the B.C. New Democrats are surely one of the last political parties in Canada who have not moved to use modern technology to allow a one-member, one-vote system. Instead, each riding has elected delegates based on constituency membership, and it'll be up to those delegates (joined by those from labour unions plus a variety of others, such as MPs and MLAs) to cast their ballots for leader. And traditionally, delegates to B.C. NDP conventions have over-represented the members who want to remain a social movement and to offer no compromises.

It takes a certain amount of passionate dedication to one's party to volunteer to spend a weekend at its convention. (This weekend's convention will, for example, see more than five hours of debate on policy resolutions on issues ranging from tuition fee freezes to anti-privatization moves.) That passionate dedication is seen a little more often among the social movement fans than amongst the other members.

Still, an Orcherton win is unlikely. Most of the delegates would still rather pursue policies likely to lead to another shot at government in the foreseeable future. And there's no question that were Orcherton to win, large numbers of party members would be likely to desert the fold. They might even have a new home to go to. A small group of former Liberals who don't like the direction of the Campbell government are talking about reviving the Progressive Democratic Alliance for citizens who want a less extreme sort of politics.

That leaves the other two serious contenders for the leadership, Carole James and Leonard Krog. Both are trying to persuade the delegates that they'll stay strongly true to NDP values while still developing practical policies likely to be acceptable to British Columbians. Both have strong backing from key leaders in the party. Despite expressed concerns about the need to review the party's formal ties with organized labour, James - a former head of the B.C. School Trustees Association - has won endorsements from both the B.C. Government Employees Union and the provincial council of the Canadian Union of Public Employees. She's also the choice of British Columbia MPs Svend Robinson and Libby Davies, and the second remaining MLA, Jenny Kwan. (Outgoing party leader Joy MacPhail has yet to publicly endorse a candidate.)

Krog's biggest "name" backer is B.C.'s first NDP Premier, Dave Barrett, who describes the Parksville-area lawyer as "very bright." Like James, he's also acquired the support of a number of former cabinet ministers in the Harcourt and Clark administrations.

Both Krog and James have consciously reached out to embrace both wings of the party. They stress the importance of the party staying true to its values - while making the necessary changes to return it to electability. Their greatest differences may be matters of style. James stresses her ability to bring people together and rebuild the party, while Krog emphasizes his ability to communicate a new NDP vision to the voters. However, Krog has worried some NDP members with what might politely be called a lack of tact. He doesn't blunt some of the NDP's less popular messages, such as the need he sees for tax increases, and he's been known to have a short fuse when faced with questioners he finds irritating or stupid.

A female advantage?

By the time the final vote rolls around, the biggest advantage that James may have may be her gender. This year, it's one of the factors that can bind the wings of the party together. Gender equality is one of the traditional values that has long been embraced by the party, and many delegates will still feel that electing a female leader is one tangible way to demonstrate that value. A female leader, though, would also be a powerful symbol for those whose major goal is to regain electoral power. Every poll taken in the past year shows that the popularity of the Campbell government is significantly lower among women than it is among men - in large part because many of the areas hit hardest by the Campbell restraint program, such as seniors' health service and children's daycare, are issues of greatest concern to women. A strong female leader would be in the best possible position to make the most of that discrepancy and translate it into votes.

But for once, what happens at the convention - who performs well, who performs poorly - may actually have some effect on the outcome of the vote. The word is that many delegates from Lower Mainland ridings were chosen by their constituency associations, even though they hadn't committed to vote for any one of the leadership choices. That may be because there's no candidate with a strong background in the Lower Mainland. That means those delegates are up for grabs - which candidate's platform will resonate with their concerns? Which candidate do they see as best reflecting the direction the NDP ought to go? The candidates must know that they need to be ready to give the speeches of their political lives this weekend.

Whoever is chosen the leader, they'll have very little time to savour the moment of victory. The next election date looms only 18 months away, and the new leader will have an immense amount of work to do. The party must be rebuilt, a new election platform formulated, money raised to fight the campaign. Because none of the candidates is well-known publicly, the winner will have to spend significant time raising their public profile, travelling the province to address both the members and the media. They'll be expected to respond to policies of the Campbell government with little time for a learning curve. It will be possible only with a strong and united party behind them. The candidates need to hope that all the delegates remember that.

Barbara McLintock, a regular contributor to The Tyee, is a freelance writer and consultant based in Victoria and author of Anorexia's Fallen Angel.