According to a poll by the Strategic Counsel, the Conservatives would win 35% of the Canadian vote in an election held today—but they would lose some of their Quebec seats and remain a minority government.

The poll, conducted for the Globe and Mail and CTV, estimated that 35% of Canadians would vote Conservative, and 31% Liberal. The New Democrats would gain 16% of the vote, with the Green Party winning 10% and the Bloc Quebecois 9%.

But in Quebec the Conservatives would crash from 22% in the 2008 election to just 10% if the election were held today -- no better than the NDP and the Greens. The Liberals would take 30% of the vote, and the Bloc 40%.

In the rest of Canada the Tories would do reasonably well, the poll indicates: 41% in Ontario and 45% in the West. But both results show a sharp drop from last December, when the Conservatives enjoyed 50% support in Ontario and 61% in the West.

Between December and March, Liberals in Ontario saw support rise from 29% to 37%, and from 16% to 23% in the West.

The NDP, meanwhile, rose from 13% to 15% in Ontario, and from 16% to 20% in the West.

Crawford Kilian is a contributing editor of The Tyee.