According to a poll by the Strategic Counsel, the Conservatives would win 35% of the Canadian vote in an election held today—but they would lose some of their Quebec seats and remain a minority government.
The poll, conducted for the Globe and Mail and CTV, estimated that 35% of Canadians would vote Conservative, and 31% Liberal. The New Democrats would gain 16% of the vote, with the Green Party winning 10% and the Bloc Quebecois 9%.
But in Quebec the Conservatives would crash from 22% in the 2008 election to just 10% if the election were held today -- no better than the NDP and the Greens. The Liberals would take 30% of the vote, and the Bloc 40%.
In the rest of Canada the Tories would do reasonably well, the poll indicates: 41% in Ontario and 45% in the West. But both results show a sharp drop from last December, when the Conservatives enjoyed 50% support in Ontario and 61% in the West.
Between December and March, Liberals in Ontario saw support rise from 29% to 37%, and from 16% to 23% in the West.
The NDP, meanwhile, rose from 13% to 15% in Ontario, and from 16% to 20% in the West.
Crawford Kilian is a contributing editor of The Tyee.
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realisticman
3 years ago
Wow! The NDP is down 25% in
Wow! The NDP is down 25% in Ontario in one month alone! The NDP is down in all sectors since the last election! When Crawford writes that, "The New Democrats would gain 16% of the vote", take that word "gain" with generous pinch of salt. The Liberals are up since the election but they've actually lost ground over the past month. Even the Bloc has lost ground since the election.
I guess there's a win here for everyone since the Conservatives are still in the lead and the trajectory is up!
Van Isle
3 years ago
It seems now that time is on
It seems now that time is on the Liberals side. Should be interesting what the polls will say in May. Dollars to doughnuts that the Liberals will be ahead. As time goes on the Conservatives are going to look weaker and weaker. Harpers days are numbered.
Rod Smelser
3 years ago
unrealistic ANALYSIS
There's nothing liks an opinion poll to produce humorous examples of unrealistic analysis. People see what they want to see, nothing else.
The notion that the Liberals are on the verge of some kind of national breakthrough based on a spontaneous popular wave of enthusiasm for Michael Ignatieff is so far beyond the merely absurd it boggles the mind. Less than six months ago I was hearing the exact same rubbish about Stephane Dion as I am hearing now about Ignatieff.
Warren Kinsella made a big fuss about the Liberal's new fundraiser, whose name escapes me. Well? Where's the beef? Or should I say, where't the pork, since that's the missing ingredient in the Liberal mix. A Liberal Party out of power and out of patronage to offer is a beached whale. That's the real lesson of last Fall's 27% Liberal finish.
At 16% the NDP has little to be cheerful about, but no need to be unduly despondent either. As the months pass and Flaherty issues report cards saying that a lot of the promised stimulus money is going nowhere because the provinces and municipalities don't have the matching cash, and the recession in Canada keeps lingering even as it starts to turn the other way in the US, people are going to start wondering what kind of package the Liberals supported, and why.
The Liberals aren't going to have any better answers this time than they did at the end of the last Parliament. And everyone will know that the real reason, the only reason, is that the Liberals are not financially prepared for an election.
G West
3 years ago
All True Rod, but I hear
I hear that Pee Wee's brain(?) trust is poised to start a series of attack ads like the ones they targeted on Dion prior to the last election.
Somebody's worried in the PMO and Pee Wee's failure to 'get it' is going to do them in whenever the next election happens.
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
And the Larger Sample Size Ipsos Poll
Strategic Council - 1,000 sample size
Ipsos - 2,000 sample size:
Canada
Con - 37%
Lib - 33%
NDP - 12%
BQ - 10%
Green - 8%
BC:
Con - 50%
Lib - 26%
NDP - 14%
Green - 9%
http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/Ipsos-Reid-959155.html
Using Frank's previous analogy, the 50% Con vote would go to the provincial Libs.
The 14% NDP vote would go to the provincial NDP;
The 9% Green vote will remain with the Greens.
And then there's the federal Liberal vote... hmmmmmm 10% to the provincial Libs and 16% to the provincial NDP?
One would see a provincial result like this:
Lib: 60%
NDP - 30%
Green - 9%
Hmmmmm...
Frank
3 years ago
Hmm
"And then there's the federal Liberal vote... hmmmmmm 10% to the provincial Libs and 16% to the provincial NDP?"
I think based on past election results that its more like 21% of the federal Liberal vote to the NDP and 5% to the provincial Libs but in the end all those Con voters will happily re-elect GC.
And then of course you and Wilf and JStog will post comments saying the NDP has to be able to appeal to the Conservative voter or it won't be relevant.
I will state in advance I will happily continue to vote for a party that doesn't agree with Harper supporters and their "the earth is 6,000 years old" bit.
I know, maybe Carole James should say incomes have declined in BC and gang warfare has risen because God is angry?