Liberals' Biggest Campaign Gamble Paid Off

Imagine, for a moment, that you are a political strategist. Your client is a party that has been in government for eight years and has led in every public opinion poll taken since the last election. Would you advise them to be cautious and defensive, or would you recommend a bold, perhaps even risky approach?

Or, perhaps your client is the opposition party, one that has been no better than second in every public opinion poll over the last four years. Would you propose a daring, high-stakes campaign, or would you suggest a conservative, "play it safe" strategy?

It's a no-brainer, right? The front-runner ought to be careful and risk-averse, while the challenger, with nothing to lose and trailing in the polls, should take a bold, innovative course of action.

Yet, that's not what occurred in B.C.'s May 12 general election. For in the campaign leading to their re-election to government, it was the incumbent BC Liberals who adopted a potentially-risky strategy, while the second-place New Democrats took a "let's-take-no-chances" route straight back to the opposition benches.

Rolling dice on Gordo's voter appeal

And what was the BC Liberals' potentially-risky course of action? Just as every public opinion poll since 2005 has shown Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals to be favoured over Carole James's New Democrats, so too have those surveys revealed that a sizeable segment of the provincial population has little admiration for Premier Gordon Campbell.

Ipsos Reid, for example, reported in three surveys in 2008 that Campbell had a disapproval rating of 49 per cent, 47 per cent and 46 per cent. Even as late as March of this year, Ipsos found that 47 per cent of British Columbians disapproved of the premier's performance in office. (By comparison, the same polls put Carole James' disapproval rating at just 34 per cent, 33 per cent, 34 per cent and 38 per cent.)

Yet -- and this surely must have sparked some heated discussions within the BC Liberal camp during the pre-writ period -- party strategists approved a television advertising campaign that focused exclusively on Campbell.

The ads -- more than a dozen in total -- showed him sitting alone on camera, dressed casually in a jacket and open-neck shirt, and talking to an unseen (and unheard) interviewer. There was no indication of the BC Liberals' "team" of candidates, no third-party endorsements, and the sole voice to be heard was that of the leader. All Campbell, all the time. (You can see the ads here.)

Simple, direct and consistent. And risky, too, given the leader's high disapproval ratings and palpable unpopularity. But it worked. It was a gamble and it paid off.

NDP's Many mixed messages

Now consider the New Democratic Party's election strategy.

Whereas the BC Liberals had one simple slogan that accompanied their ads ("Keep B.C. Strong"), the New Democrats apparently had two main themes -- "Take Back Your B.C." and "Because Everyone Matters" -- in addition to several lesser ones, such as "Eight Years is Enough," "I Stand With You," and "The Campbell Liberals: Even Bad For Your Wallet." (Watch the NDP ads here.)

Occasionally, the two main tags were combined, as on the party platform: "Take Back Your B.C. -- Because Everyone Matters." Other times, one or the other would appear in conjunction with yet another. One television ad, for example, had James listing her priorities and then ending with, "Join Me: To Take Back Your B.C.," while still another said, "Eight Years is Enough: Take Back Your B.C."

And not only was there a proliferation of themes and messages, but nearly every ad presented a lengthy laundry list of grievances against the BC Liberals. One ("Eight Years is Enough") listed 10 -- count 'em, 10! -- reasons why the Campbell government should be defeated, such as rising homelessness, declining care for seniors, environmental neglect, scandals and so on, ad infinitum, ad nauseum.

In election campaigns, as with most things in life, Simple beats Complicated. And the NDP message was, what, exactly? Apparently incapable of deciding upon a single campaign theme or strategy, the New Democrats opted to throw out a myriad of promises, grievances and attacks in the hope that one might resonate with the voting public.

Where was the grabber?

And let us not forget the salient point. In every single public opinion survey conducted since the 2005 general election, the NDP have trailed their opponents by between two and 16 percentage points. What bold course of action, or new policies, did Carole James and her New Democrats devise or adopt to change that dynamic and put them in front?

Just once during the 28-day campaign did James take a direct approach and engage Gordon Campbell -- in the televised leaders' debate. And on that occasion, as she had done four years earlier, James won a clear victory over her BC Liberal rival.

With the exception of that one-hour debate, however, James and the NDP played it safe. And by doing so, they lost an election that most impartial observers thought was well within their grasp.

Where Liberals got stronger

It's amazing how little the electoral results differed from 2005 to 2009. Based on preliminary results, it appears that just three seats -- Stikine, Burnaby-Deer Lake, and Vancouver-Fairview -- changed hands from one election to the next. The first two ridings switched from Campbell's Liberals to James' New Democrats, while the last one went in the opposite direction.

The BC Liberals improved their standing in the five regions and sub-regions -- the Okanagan, Vancouver Westside, Richmond, the North Shore and Fraser Valley South -- that have proved a solid base for that party in recent elections. Indeed, after winning 24 of 25 seats here four years ago, Campbell's Liberals captured all 28 ridings on May 12.

The gains came from three newly-created districts, and by picking up Vancouver-Fairview. The latter riding was won by New Democrat Gregor Robertson in 2005, and retained by the NDP's Jenn McGinn in a 2008 byelection. Margaret MacDiarmid, the byelection runner-up, upset McGinn in the rematch.

Holding their own

Despite boosting their seat total, however, Campbell's Liberals showed minimal improvement in terms of actual ballots. Four years ago in these fortress regions, the BC Liberals had a 135,500-vote margin over the NDP; on May 12 that number climbed almost imperceptibly to 136,500.

For their part, the New Democrats merely held their own in the five regions and sub-regions -- Vancouver Eastside, North-Central Surrey, Vancouver Island South, Vancouver Island North and the Kootenays -- in which they have enjoyed historic success. Four years ago, the NDP took 23 of 30 seats in these regions; on May 12, those numbers were 24 of 32.

The New Democrats did, however, augment their overall vote advantage over the BC Liberals in these regions, rising from a 73,000-ballot plurality in 2005 to 88,000 in the latest contest.

And perhaps the NDP can build on a handful of close contests in their fortress regions: they fell short in Saanich North and the Islands by less than 400 votes, in Oak Bay-Gordon Head by 530, in Vancouver-Fraserview by 830, and in Comox Valley by 1,400.

Who won the battleground regions?

As expected, the results were tight in the three battleground regions, which in recent contests have favoured neither the BC Liberals nor New Democrats.

In Thompson-Coquihalla, the BC Liberals retained their three seats -- Shuswap, Kamloops-North Thompson, and Kamloops-South Thompson -- while the New Democrats held Fraser-Nicola. Across the region between the two elections, the BC Liberals' increased their vote plurality, growing from a margin of 4,600 ballots to 7,500.

The two parties split the 10 seats in B.C.'s North. Four years ago the BC Liberals had a six-to-four advantage, but the NDP picked up Stikine -- held by BC Liberal Dennis MacKay until his pre-election retirement, and won on May 12 by New Democrat Doug Donaldson -- to achieve parity. Across all 10 ridings, the BC Liberals retained their vote-advantage, albeit at a slightly-reduced 8,100 ballots.

And in ultra-competitive Fraser North, where the two parties had evenly divided the 10 seats in 2005 -- but which since then has seen the addition of one seat and extensive redrawing of electoral boundaries -- the New Democrats emerged on May 12 with a six-to-five advantage.

The sole NDP gain was in Burnaby-Deer Lake, a reconfigured constituency that BC Liberal John Nuraney, a two-term MLA, lost to the New Democrats' Kathy Corrigan.

The New Democratic Party also recorded a slight increase in its' vote advantage in the region, rising from about 1,500 ballots in 2005, to 8,600 on May 12.

All three regions will once again be key battlegrounds in 2013.

Steve Thomson's political aptitude

In the coming weeks, about two dozen or so newly elected MLAs from both major parties will be wending their way to Victoria, moving into their legislative offices and hiring new staff. They'll take a crash course on parliamentary procedure, and, as the old joke goes, learn to find their way to the washrooms. So much to learn; so little time.

Why, for most of them, it will be months -- and probably years -- before they even think about fudging B.C.'s finances, let alone try to accomplish such a feat.

Not so for one freshman BC Liberal, however. For Steve Thomson, Kelowna-Mission's new MLA, is a past-master at fiscal fudging.

Let's go back to 2001, not long after Gordon Campbell's BC Liberals scored one of the most lop-sided election victories in provincial history. Anxious to get a start on governing our magnificent province, the new premier commissioned a seven-member panel to examine the province's books.

It seemed a move of questionable utility at the time; after all, the province's comptroller general and auditor general already were in the process of closing the books on fiscal 2000/01. Indeed, less than two months after the Campbell government was sworn into office, at the end of July 2001, the public accounts were published. Surprisingly, they revealed that the defeated New Democrats had recorded what was then the biggest-ever surplus -- $1.6 billion in the Consolidated Revenue Fund, and $1.5 billion in the summary accounts -- in B.C. history.

But the public accounts received little attention from the news media because a few days earlier, on July 23, Campbell had made a pre-emptive strike by releasing the report from his fiscal review panel. And that report, written by Thomson and others hand-picked by the newly elected premier, stated that the New Democrats had left a potential deficit of almost $5.3 billion that could appear three years' hence.

Incredibly, the deficit forecast by the "independent" panel included such features as a ginned-up $1.25 billion forecast allowance (a fiscal shock absorber that current BC Liberal Finance Minister Colin Hansen excluded from his recent February budget) as well as the $1.5 billion cost of the BC Liberals' post-election tax cuts!

It was a work of pure fiction, but the alleged NDP deficit gained credence through repeated references by BC Liberal cabinet ministers and backbenchers, as well as widespread reportage by the province's mainstream news media. ("B.C. risks $5 billion in three years," blared a helpful headline in The Vancouver Sun.)

Sharpening their pencils

Thomson is not the first panel member to belatedly disclose his partisan instincts; four years ago, Tim Duholke sought, but was denied, a BC Liberal nomination in West Vancouver.

And several of the panelists subsequently were rewarded by Campbell for their partisan service. Mary MacGregor, for example, was named to the B.C. Lottery Corporation's board of directors; John Cowperthwaite won an appointment to Simon Fraser University's board of governors; and Gordon Barefoot was placed on boards for the Fraser Health Authority and Langara College.

So, keep an eye on Steve Thomson. An experienced fudge-maker, he has the requisite skills to follow in the footsteps of Gary Collins, Carole Taylor and Colin Hansen. And with B.C.'s economy in recession, and an inevitable -- and drastic -- re-write of the 2009/10 budget soon to be forthcoming, his baking skills will be highly valued by the re-elected Campbell government.

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