Premier Poised for Snap Election?

Premier Gordon Campbell's address to the province last week, with the exception of promising full coverage of depositor's funds in credit unions, didn't impress me. This should also be done for B.C. depositors in banks, notwithstanding the fact that they are federally chartered. All B.C. citizens, no matter where they keep their money, should be treated the same. In fact it is this action that underscores my criticism of the rest of his speech.

Of course this was a political speech and was designed to show that, thanks to good management, the government has money with which to help us all meet a national recession. There's nothing wrong with that, although one might argue whether or not all that money in the bank came from good government.

There are at least two major factors in fighting a depression. (Recession is when your neighbour losses his job; depression is when you lose yours, too.)

First there is the loss of confidence by most citizens in the institutions upon which they rely. It's this point that underscores the wisdom of guaranteeing citizens deposits in banks and credit unions.

The second factor is judging what sort of impact a depression will have on the various segments of the economy. Some segments do well in depressions; for example, the life insurance field. In the Great Depression, life insurance sales were high because it was the only way the bread winner could see a way to create an estate. For some, weathering a depression is little more than an inconvenience. For a great many people, the depression is harsh, cruel and unbearable. This latter group will likely be right across the economy from low wage people to former high rollers.

Where's the serious plan?

What is lacking is any war plan that anticipates what the experts believe will happen. I don't for a moment think that an economic game plan could anticipate all aspects of a depression but it should give you a good starting point and lay before you what you likely will face, with optional plans for what was not anticipated. This is especially important in Canada because of our federation, with divided and often overlapping jurisdictions.

The Campbell tax cuts smack of raw politics and naked ideology. Of course tax cuts will be popular. But tax cuts to ramp up the economy are straight out of the playbook of Ronald Reagan, Milton Friedman and the Fraser Institute. Ronald Reagan cut taxes and created near boom economies with this little problem -- by tripling the U.S. national debt from $900 billion to $2.7 trillion, combined with abandonment of appropriate regulation of business practices carried on to a fare-thee-well by George W. Bush, the base was laid for the stock market crashes we see today.

The notion that the rich will use tax cuts to invest in the economy has been discredited in all but the most right-wing of circles. Right-wing governments piously claim that tax cuts are not to help their friends but to assist the poor, whereas in truth they are to help their friends. This does not mean, I emphasize, that you don't cut taxes to help people, especially in small businesses, to survive. It is to say that the policy should not be for everyone. Rather, it should be targeted on segments clearly in need.

The importance of not fully assessing the situation and of waiting to implement a plan is political. This mini budget was pronounced for the short term between now and the election of May 12 next year, not for any long term plan. This is evidenced by the fact that the government doesn't have one.

Campbell may feel hurried

This leads to speculation that Campbell might call an election before next May. The Premier has paid no attention to his own law requiring a fall sitting of the legislature and I suggest has no qualms about a snap election. The downsides to such a plan mainly concern the feedback about breaking his own law and the weather. Neither of these concerns will count for a thing if there are better reasons in favour – which there are.

For the first time in my memory, an election will be fought on environmental concerns where the premier and his government are in hugely bad shape. The fish farm issue has come to a head in the last couple of years and the government protection of this industry against the overwhelming scientific evidence calling for them to go is unhelpful, to say the least. The folks in Tsawwassen who have fought against overhead transmission lines along with the huge impact of the Gateway Project may have turned the safe seat of Delta over to the hugely popular Vicki Huntington, who's one of those rare people who could win as an independent.

The government has pissed off the "the three-piece suit and pearl necklace crowd" who vigorously protested the decision of Transportation Minister Falcon to put the Sea-To-Sky upgrade right through Eagleridge rather than under it. That seat is a "safe" seat but Campbell and Falcon have done their best to change that.

Rivers, a province-wide issue

The so-called Run of Rivers issue, where up to 600 rivers and streams will be turned over to corporate-America power projects, hits all segments of the province. As forces against this initiative ratchet up their attack around the province, many hitherto winnable seats may be lost to the Liberals. (Full disclosure: I am spokesperson for Save Our Rivers Society and as such am personally carrying this fight province wide).

In a nutshell, the Campbell government is losing serious ground in the fight to save the environment. Moreover, threatened by this rivers policy may well be the very existence of BC Hydro, which has already had much of its bureaucracy "leased" to the private American firm Accenture, and its transmission lines transferred to a new Crown corporation, which will undoubtedly be sold by Campbell if he's re-elected, leaving Hydro itself on the brink of bankruptcy.

The inescapable consequence is our water exported, because of NAFTA, to the United States. (For more on the NAFTA issue, see Wendy Holm, a well respected agrologist at www.saveourrivers.ca.)

In summary, then, Gordon Campbell faces issues better dealt with today than tomorrow. That's a prescription for an election sooner than later.

Related Tyee stories:

• Between Lines of Campbell's Speech: A New 'Fudge-It Budget'
  He'll have to jigger the books to not show a deficit.
• Is Carbon Tax Political Poison?
  Dion and Campbell might have just sold it badly: pollster.
• Harper Win Good for Campbell?
  Provincial contest will be night and day different.