The Big US Vote

For most Canadians the U.S. presidential election is like the major league baseball play-offs and the World Series; we love the finals but don't get too interested in the foreplay.

For one thing, the run-up to the nominating process, namely the national party convention, is difficult to understand.

Some states have "primaries" where party members get to select delegates; some of these primaries have a "winner take all" rule where all delegates go to the winner, and others divide the delegates according to the proportion of the vote each candidate received. Some states, notably Iowa, have little neighbourhood coffee klatches (now there's a term from long ago for you) where they talk it over and award delegates as they might hand out candy on Halloween.

The infuriating part for the voyeurs above the border is trying to place results in proportion. Why is so much read into results from tiny states like New Hampshire and Iowa?

In fact I've decided that the primaries are less about selecting a presidential candidate than providing 10 months of overtime pay for the news media.

And be assured the news media will be in frenzy earning its pay tomorrow, on so-called "Super Tuesday" when nearly half the nation casts ballots for who they want to see representing the Democratic and Republican parties in the presidential race.

My American studies

I must confess that I didn't really understand the "system," if it be one, until1984 when I received a grant from the U.S. State Department to study their system of governance. It was then I learned that there is not one Democratic and one Republican party but 50 of each with the states having the constitutional right to select their method of voting -- if you overlook, that is, the disgracefully political decision in Bush v. Florida where the U.S. Supreme Court gave the election to George W. Bush by blatantly interfering with the state's right to handle its own voting.

At the national conventions, states have the right to the same number delegates as they have members in the Electoral College, that venerable institution that on too many occasions has awarded the presidency to men who have not had the most votes. Fifteen times, in fact.

From this vantage point it looks to me as if John McCain will be the GOP candidate in a straight vote where old Republicans support Mitt Romney and those who want everyone to forget Dubya will vote for McCain.

The Mormon factor

Romney carries religious baggage, being a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (Mormon), which most Christian religions, including loyal Republican fundamentalists, do not recognize as Christian. McCain, like John Kerry before him, is a genuine war hero and he is sheltered, as Kerry was not, from evil suggestions of cowardice because Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are, unlike the Bush team, decent folks -- for politicians that is!

But while McCain looks like he has the momentum to carry him to victory, the Democrats are having a most unusual joust indeed with a woman and a black the only real candidates left.

Hillary, Barack . . . and Bill

At this stage it seems as if Obama has the momentum. But that plus two bucks gets you a Starbucks when the big states, California and New York, wade in. Mrs. Clinton has an advantage. She's been campaigning for the job for six years. I would suspect that all Democrats of consequence have shaken hands and had their picture taken with one of the Clintons. Thus Hillary has major depths of support in states that count. To win, Obama has to capture either New York or California, no mean task.

Clinton carries baggage too. She voted for the war in Iraq for one thing. And she is being supported by her husband the ex-president. Bill Clinton is a hell of a campaigner, no doubt about that. But the Clinton team must always make it appear that Hillary, not Bill, is in charge. Serious cracks have appeared in the Clinton machine because Bill is now pissing off voters who don't want a surrogate Bill in the White House working the levers of power.

The sad part of this is that by all accounts Hillary can stand on her own two feet and deal with what happens. Indeed, before Bill waded in, that was the appearance and in politics, appearances are realities. Bill Clinton has become a liability in Hillary's campaign and if that isn't dealt with it could have serious consequences.

'Dream team'?

What about a "dream team" of Barack and Hillary or the other way around?

When the country is wondering if they're ready for a woman president or a black one, I would think that the combining of the two would attract the enemies of each.

For many Canadians, the political World Series has arrived early.

Related Tyee stories:

• Hillary, Obama Go at It!
  It's a natural hit on YouTube, where hordes surf for outbursts.
• Bill Blowing the Election
  Goodbye Billary, hello Obama. And more hunches.
• Can Obama Keep Hope Alive?
  Now the knives are really out.