Harper disappointed?

You better believe it Will.

He's happy he doesn't have to move house of course but the suggestion that Pee Wee is 'pleased' or satisfied with the outcome of this election is, in my view, unwarranted.

He now knows that he's going to be saddled irrevocably with the economic downturn that's coming and, he also knows he's alienated Quebec.

That promise about never raising taxes is going to be a lot more difficult to keep in that scenario and - when it happens - it's going to be much more difficult to live down than the Income Trusts lie was.

I think Harper's smart enough to recognize that he's caught between a rock and a hard place and - as for the Liberals - they've hit bottom....

If the economy hits bottom Steve hasn't either the temperament, or the character, to do what's necessary.

The opposition parties should combine to take him out right away - and then form the coalition it's going to take to deal with this mess.

As long as it happens before October 2009 there doesn't even have to be an election either....and the 79% of the Canadian people who don't like Pee Wee will be just fine with that.

And no constitutional crisis necessary...McKenzie King saw to that.

On the other hand

Harper is a slow methodical guy and he has gradually and successfully decimated his only real opponent.

The Liberals did very badly, they are about to loose their leader and they are broke.

Will McMartin

I know its the nature of the beast to never expect a new idea from an entity called "conservative". But when was the last time they had one?

The only one I can think of is 50 years ago from The Chief, that fighter planes are obsolete and the Bomarc missile IS the future. They couldn't get rid of those Avro Arrows fast enough. And I can understand their position, its un-conservative to want to build something modern when we have perfectly good resources sitting in the ground.

Other than that R.B. Bennett could have written their latest platform although I doubt he would have gone for fancy-dan, new-fangled ideas like the tax break for piano lessons.

What are you talking about?

Harper ran a buttoned-up tight-assed campaign, he didn't 'decimate' anyone. His actual vote tally went down - he has the support of less than 22% of Canadians, has succeeded in alientating Quebec voters and, I dare say, if the election were being called today, he'd have lost the brass ring too. The trends were definitely against him.

As I and others have pointed out, the Liberals were dead before the race started and even so Pee Wee couldn't knock them out.

His lust for power was so palpable he tore up his own stupid law to call the election in the first place and now he's going to have to run a deficit and likely raise taxes into the bargain.

There's no success like failure, and failure's no success at all.

As for 'broke' - even that isn't true....the Liberals won't have a problem in that arena - ever.

I do agree with you that he's pretty slow though.

Christy

I'll often listen to CKNW to counter-balance the CBC's take on things, but when she's on the air, no matter how hard I try, I'm diving for the off button after a couple of minutes... as ignorance of the issues seems less painful than listening to her pathetic attempts to bait guests and spin debates with thinly veiled talking points. Worst. Radio. Host. Ever.

Churchill Bon Mots

Here's another Churchill quotation:

Lady Nancy Astor: Winston, if you were my husband, I'd poison your tea.

Churchill: Nancy, if I were your husband, I'd drink it.

Right on

Of course the minority is a virtual majority, as Will
explains so well. He might have mentioned, too,
that Elizabeth May knew full well there was no place she could run and win, so why not challenge Peter MacKay
in Central Nova and garner the resulting celebrity and puzzled gee-whizzes from the press? ( Holy smokes, Martha, why's she running against MacKay?) The media fell for it, of course, so In that sense she was a winner.
LEAVE OUT THE PERSONAL INSULTS OF OTHER COMMENTERS PLEASE -- TYEE MODERATOR

The nice thing about conservative support

The one nice thing about conservative support is the undeniable fact that it comes from people of a 'certain' age.

The young voter, from the generations who know that Harper and the blue rinse set don't give a damn for the future or for the condition of the planet are slowly learning that 'strategic' voting and blogging won't change things in this country.

They also recognize that, in the end, Harper's acolytes in Calgary and his fellow travellers across the country have already reached their 'best-before' dates and are beginning to gather mold at the back of the fridge.

The rest of us, the 78% who know that, long term, the country can't survive the old style politics much longer, are in no danger of going to sleep.

You missed another loser Will

I think another big loser you left off your list was BC Premier Campbell. The voters rejection of the Dion's green cutty sark doesn't bode well for the Campbell Tax.

I see he's busy spinning the blame onto Gilles Duceppe - but that won't wash, any more than Jacques Parizeau's decision to blame immigrants for the rejection of the last referendum in Quebec.

He's just bitter and out of sorts, and, I dare say a little worried as construction projects all over the province start to shut down.

Guess he didn't get the memo that Stephen had solved the separatist thing with his declaration that Quebec as a 'nation' eh?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081016.ELECTSEPARATISTS16/TPStory/TPNational/BritishColumbia/

22% ?

Funny numbers West. I see that you have decreed that of the 45% of voters who didn't vote, NONE of them would have voted Con
Do you have something to back this up or is this your "professional opinion"
Cause we know what you think of my opinions.

Drive Time Radio

Stump:
"I'll often listen to CKNW to counter-balance the CBC's take on things, but when she's on the air, no matter how hard I try, I'm diving for the off button after a couple of minutes... as ignorance of the issues seems less painful than listening to her pathetic attempts to bait guests and spin debates with thinly veiled talking points. Worst. Radio. Host. Ever.

Stump, I think you're forgetting the CBC's Tom Allen, who's attempts to package classical music as pop are too silly for words. Another thing. They way you put it, "diving for the off button", conjures up a picture of you listening to the radio while driving. In a car. So, how about that?

Simple math

Cons got 37% of the popular vote; the popular vote was 58% of the eligible vote...

Therefore the support for pee wee = 21.46% - I gave him the benefit of the doubt and rounded up.

I think every breathing soul who was capable of manning a pencil was dragged, pushed, rolled or cajoled into voting for pee wee. There may have been one guy in Saskatchewan whose truck wouldn't start but that's about it.

Fanatics get out the vote - and the people who vote for pee wee are fanatics - in my view his support at 22% is just about right.

I don't have a single objection to your opinions - in fact, I think you're generally a pretty rational guy. If I didn't think there was hope to reform your thinking I wouldn't bother.

Biggest Loser-Canada!

So we boldly go without a vision, a destination for Canada, other than more of the same!

So sharpen up your hewers of wood because the sale of resources continues, only the sell off pace will slow down as the economy does.

aspirations of the workers

The NDP lost an opportunity to become a significant party, this election!
The constant reference to "hard working families" might be appropriate, but does not sit well with most folks.
While the trailer park boys is a popular show on TV, nobody wants to be considered poor, or of the lower class!
The way the NDP spin goes, people hate to be considered mere workers!
Much like the fact that nobody will admit to shopping at Army and Navy stores!
This may be silly considering that being an assistant manager at Mc Donalds hardly make you a potential millionaire.

The New Math

The problem with comparative percentages is that for
each or any to be valid, collectively they must total 100.
Thus the Tories with 37.6 per cent of the vote, the Liberals with 26.2 per cent, etc., etc., eventually add up to the required 100. Using the unique G West formula, we find that the Tories are supported by just 22 per cent of the populace. Following that contrivance, the Liberals have 15.2 per cent, the NDP 10.6, the Bloq 10, the Greens 4, and the rest 0.8. This achieves a total of 58.4 per cent. What about the orphaned 41.6?
For his alleged 22 per cent figure to be valid, G West must find a home somewhere for 41.6 per cent of the populace. Maybe they're all shopping. He should check out Wal*Mart.

You are aware of somebody who would change that status?

Freebear

"So sharpen up your hewers of wood because the sale of resources continues, only the sell off pace will slow down as the economy does."

I don't disagree with that at all bud

But I'm surprised that anyone would suggest that 22% indicates anything but a mild preference and, given the fact that Pee Wee sees himself as the avatar of the right and everyone else as a lefty (I CAN provide quotes) I didn't think even you would argue that the vast majority of the population would rather he weren't prime minister of anything but a desk and an office at the University of Calgary.

Please refer to other posts for my reasoning about the folks who come out to support pee wee in their wheelchairs - all power to 'em, but they won't be around that much longer - have a look at those faces in the crowd clapping him on the back.

Its simple math alright

And complete nonsense to suggest that every single Con supporter in Canada voted, while the 45% who didn't were ABC.

You can do better than that, but I do appreciate the vote of confidence.

Signed

Fanatic

(busy day today, I'm cleaning my guns and then attending an anti abortion rally this afternoon)

G West...

Give it up. ~45% of British Columbians voted Conservative.

BC's wealthiest riding, Vancouver Quadra, voted Liberal. Vancouver South, also a wealthy riding, voted Liberal. North Vancouver, a wealthy riding, came very close to electing its incumbent Liberal.

I would suggest that most of these Liberal voters would have a preference for Harper as PM as opposed to say, Layton. :)

Ergo, a reasonable person could come to the conclusion that the majority of BC'ers have a preference for Harper as PM.

There, I said it.

Electoral Reform

I don't actually believe the majority of voters prefer Stephen Harper - they just didn't know how to vote without reliable polling information and with a divided left.

electoral reform is much-needed!

www.bcandbeyond.wordpress.com

whose, Budd, whose

I make that same "who's" mistake all the time too.

The radio sits on the kitchen table, so I have to reach across it to turn it off. I just do it so much faster when Christy starts babbling... hence the 'dive'

Plus, once I saw her park her AWD Volvo wagon in a fire lane on Granville Island, so she's a big loser IMO. For the park job, not the yuppie status-mobile.

Luke Skywalker: Quote:Give

Luke Skywalker:

No. Of the elligible voters, 61% showed up to vote:

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2008/10/15/voter-turnout.html

Of those British Columbians, 44.44% voted Conservative:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/

That's 27.1% of elligible British Columbians.

G West: Quote:...vast

G West:

A desk at the University of Calgary? Why not a mid-level manager at a paper supply company?

De ja vu all over again

"The NDP lost an opportunity to become a significant party"

Seems that during every federal election I can remember, the NDPers tell me they are going to have a big break. Heck, it seems they are a shoe in every time if you listen to their people.

But it never happens. First is silence. Then come blame. Then comes a repeat. But they are stuck at that 17% or so and it hasn't changed for years.

Rant as much as you want but Harper is an astute politician. He knows how to win elections. For example, today, a big two days after the election, he stated that his government will have to run budget deficits. This after steadfastly denying he would do it all during the election campaign.

That was a smart political move. Get your dirty work done right off the top while the Liberals are in disarray. Honest? Nope! Politically smart? Yes!

Liberal die hards

And every election you tell me the Libs are the party of power.

Voter support in the 2000 election
Liberal 5,252,031
NDP 1,093,868

Voter support in the 2008 election
Liberal 3,629,990
NDP 2,517,075

The trends are probably obvious.

Well, Frank

Well, Frank, looks like you are a shoe in next time around. But didn't you mention a few weeks ago that the NDP was going to be the opposition this time around?

Wilf

No, I didn't.

4 straight elections where the Libs have seen their popular support go down. Pretty bad from a party you've always told me "know how to win elections". I guess they forgot.

Wise words Liberals should listen to

"Tom Axworthy, a former principal secretary to Pierre Trudeau, said the party needs to address more issues than simply choosing a new leader.

Mr. Axworthy was the chairman of a renewal commission that was appointed to look at all aspects of the party's operation after the past election defeat. The commission said there is an "implementation gap" between what Liberals promise and what they deliver, so greater emphasis should be placed on improving government effectiveness. It also urged that such major initiatives as Mr. Dion's Green Shift be voted on by members.

However, the recommendations of the 30 or so task forces were largely ignored by Mr. Dion when he became leader. "Leadership ambitions today may mean they ignore the deep-seated problems of the party and hope that glitz will win the day. It's always a dilemma between personal agendas and party need," Mr. Axworthy said."

Democracy?

Sounds to me like Axworthy is suggesting that actual rank and file Liberal party members be allowed to vote on major initiatives. Pretty radical stuff.

fine with me Jimmy

just as long as he goes back where he came from - paper hanging would definitely be appropriate though

Doomed

Well, I guess the Liberals are doomed as a political party now. Get ready for Jack and Olivia at 24 Sussex. It is a sure thing. Absolutely 100% for sure. Like, it is impossible it isn't gonna happen. The Liberals can't bounce back, absolutely impossible, it has never happened before and I never will.

Like never!

Wilf

I'll quote you on that and we'll see how your optimistic prediction turns out. Just don't bet anything on it.

In the meantime, why not put your energy into making sure your party does more than anoint a new messiah to lead you back to the 1970s.

Interesting development

Elections Canada has just ordered a recount in Ujall's riding.
The vote differential has gone from 800 votes on Election night to only 33 today!

My god happy!

Can you imagine how he'll scream if he ends up LOSING.

That will be a moment to remember.

Biggest Loser: Democracy

The biggest loser of this election outcome is Canadian democracy and the voter. The vast majority of the Canadian population do not want Harper and the neo-cons governing this country in the style of an out-dated and failed right-wing ideology.

A new political approach and direction is necessary and the vast majority of people recognize this. Unfortunately, their concerns, desires and efforts to achieve this are ignored and never achieve anything of substance. This eventually results in apathy, as people realize that it is a complete waste of their time to engage with the political system in a meaningful way. No wonder people don't bother to vote. The healthy thing to do just might be to tune out of political debate and and turn onto "America's Next Top Model," or go to the pub and get smashed.

With all due respect Mr. McMartin (I think your analysis of the issues is well thought out), you are also ignoring the vast majority of the population who have absolutely no control over their political future, the ones who don't wish to be ruled by a neo-conservative party taking the country down into flames with its failed wrong-headed policies of over-consumption and military misadventures.

ageing hippies

Who do you think did the work defending this planet?
Remember the Whole Earth Catalogue?
Also, Greenpeace founders.
Also, CBC archives of Lizzie May in her early twenties.
Ralph Nader is in his early 70's now.
Careful about ageism, hey?
Even Naomi Klein had a mom dragging her out to Peace Walks.

the real winners in this

the real winners in this election were the silent majority. the ones that go to work, pay their taxes faithfully and care for their families loyally. they want a gov't that exercises common sense and caution in their policy-making, and they want them to stay out of their lives whenever possible. (they're also the people that the radicals on this site will call schmucks, but that's their problem) today they're thankful that they'll have that kind of gov't for at least 2 or 3 more years, and the longer they rule the more likely it is that others will realize they should stay.

Crass

My bet Crass, is that if given the option, the majority of voters would have chosen "none of the above" for Prime Minister.

Even Layton blew it with his continued nonsensical assertion that he had a reasonable chance of winning a majority.

Who in his/her right mind would put their trust in a man holding such an insultingly low regard for the voter's ability to reason?

ME2

Did Layton ever say that?

That he had a 'reasonable' chance of winning a majority.

Because I never heard it.

I did hear him say he was applying for the job and 'running' for the position.

They are different things.

And I think it was about time the NDP stopped running to be also-rans.

I thought it was a brilliant move and got the party a lot more credibility and attention...you may recall the polls seemed to agree that he showed strong leadership potential.

I just heard old David Anderson complaining that greens ought not to have voted green in Saanich and the Islands - that supporters of the green party were irresponsible to not vote for Lunn.

I'm sick and tired of that kind of entitlement and where it's gotten this country and I think it's time people started saying there's a better way than following these old warhorses and their worn-out ideology.

Man's reach should exceed his grasp - otherwise progress becomes an idle dream.

I'm glad Jack went for it and I'm sick of the small thinkers who criticize him for it.

G West...

Jack running for Prime Minister!

It's good to see that Canada's fourth party is so ambitious.

In BC, I understand that Jane Sterk, leader of BC's third party, the Green Party, is also running to be Premier of BC next May.

Who woulda thunk?

to sir john a

A government that couldn't give a rat's flying fig about its future generation's drinking water (water degradation and depletion, of course, in essence what the CO2 problem is all about) and depletion of natural resources is hardly one that exercises either "common sense" or "caution." Just the oppposite. Governments that absolve themselves of all ethical responsibility towards their citizens and environments, as does Harper's, are as reckless, myopic, and without integrity as they come.

As for wanting a government that "stays out
of people's lives," why is it that Harper's government can demand Canadians that we support an illegal and immoral war via our taxes and resources, and this, somehow, is considered to be "staying out of our lives"? Bull. I consider the Canadian government's policy in this area, just to name one example, to be an huge imposition on my personal rights as I, and the majority of Canadians it seems, do not appreciate our taxes and country's resource wealth being used as phony cover to kill, maim, cheat, and invade other people and countries. The Afghanistan war bothers me deeply, and I consider it to be a HUGE invasion of my personal life in terms of my right to a peace of mind and happiness both as a Canadian and as a human being.

Oh, and if ignoring the native water issues and the homeless, to name but two, are examples a government "staying out of people's lives," all I can suggest is that you need to deeply re-examine your soul and your attitude towards your fellow human beings. There's a sickness that fosters this kind of laissez-faire, anti-good-Samaritan belief. It's called "selfishness."

More Churchill, for victors

On Harper:
"Business carried on as usual during the alterations on the map of Europe." Speeches...1914

On Iggy and Rae"
"The difference between him and Arthur is that Arthur is wicked and moral, and Asquith is good and immoral." B.T. Raymond... 1920

On Trudeau:
"The candle in that great turnip has gone out" Nicolson - Diaries 1958

On Duceppe:
"The only recorded instance in history of a rat swimming towards a sinking ship." Harris 1965

On Quebec voters:
"In defeat, unbeatable; in victory, unbearable." Marsh, of Montgomery 1964

On Layton:
"The utmost he has been able to gain for Czechoslovakia and in the matters which were in dispute has been that the German dictator, instead of snatching his victuals from the table, has been content to have them served to him course by course." Speeches 1938

Yet more Churchill, for the losers

On Dion (best of three):
"Jellicoe was the only man on both sides who could lose the war in an afternoon." The World Crisis 1927

"I remember when I was a child, being taken to the celebrated Barnum's circus, which contained an exhibition of freaks and monstrosities, but the exhibit on the programme which I most desired to see was the one described as 'The Boneless Wonder'. My parents judged that that spectacle would be too revolting and demoralizing for my youthful eyes, and I have waited 50 years to see the boneless wonder sitting on the [opposition] bench." Speeches 1931

"This is the sort of English up with which I will not put!" E. Gowers 1948

On Newfoundland voters & Danny Williams:
"I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat." Speeches 1940

On May & Carr:
"He is one of those orators of whom it was well said, 'Before they get up, they do not know what they are going to say; when they are speaking they do not know what they are saying; and when they have sat down, they do not know what they have said.' Speeches 1912

On UVIC PoliScientists:
"The ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterward to explain why it didn't happen." Adler: Churchill's Wit 1965

On Christy Clark:
"I still have the ideas, Walter, but I can't find the words to clothe them." Benn; diary, 1956

Churchill, for me....

"It is a good thing for an uneducated man to read books of quotations." My Early Life 1930

Harper Forever

How likely is it that all three parties will find it to their own benefit to knock off the Tories?

Now a guy with such winning ways as Harper has, with Obama about to take over in the US and reverse US global warming policy, and an economic tsunami about to arrive courtesy the US meltdown, obviously couldn't possibly slide so low in the polls everyone would want him out. When Mulroney had a majority government he sailed on forever - I don't think his popularity ever went below 19%. No one would pull the plug on Harper if he retained that kind of solid support.

All governments have an easy time during a little rough patch, like a once in a century economic meltdown liable to affect the financial well being of most Canadians. And Harper won't lose one bit of support in the oil patch when he has to actually do something about global warming because our largest trading partner insists on grounds their business types are demanding a level playing field. Its just common sense.

The US business lobby doesn't have any kind of power to force us to do stuff like that do they?

Canadians are more sophisticated than that. They wouldn't be taken in by any other political group who said they had a better plan. They'd stick with the man they just voted enthusiastically into a landslide minority government. There would be no demands for an election to change the captain of the sinking ship, if the ship started sinking. No. The Conservatives are in like Flynn, five years minimum. This is a tip I'm giving you bet on it, its as solid as a tranche of collateralized debt obligations.

He's already shown a deft touch handling the economic emergency, as in the last few days before the vote took place he handed out $25 billion to the banks to buy up mortgages the day before the US decided to a change their bailout plan from buying up mortgage paper to taking over ownership of the banks.

Its too bad. I guess we're stuck with Harper until he dies. He'll probably rule longer than Trudeau

Luke....?!@#*%

"Give it up. ~45% of British Columbians voted Conservative.

BC's wealthiest riding, Vancouver Quadra, voted Liberal. Vancouver South, also a wealthy riding, voted Liberal. North Vancouver, a wealthy riding, came very close to electing its incumbent Liberal.

I would suggest that most of these Liberal voters would have a preference for Harper as PM as opposed to say, Layton. :)

Ergo, a reasonable person could come to the conclusion that the majority of BC'ers have a preference for Harper as PM."

WTF? Liberal voters voting Liberal because they prefer Harper? Did your smoke break this morning get cut short with a Halon extinguisher?

Earth to Luke - come in, Luke! People who voted Liberal generally held their noses and voted for Dion because they were afraid of Harper! Only someone who is so totally in touch with his SELFISH inner child could imagine that the rictus sardonicus displayed by Harper could evoke anything but the most astounding horror in anyone with even a shred of faith in common human decency.

oops

The Gallup Poll in 1993 recorded just 15% national support for Prime Minister Mulroney, the lowest for any Prime Minister in Canadian history. Consequently, his Progressive Conservative Party imploded from 151 seats to just two members in parliament.

Other web sources cited figures as low as 11%.

Obviously something like this could never happen again. The other parties would believe that they couldn't get two seats each. They'd all keep supporting Harper.

Loss - Green Shift

Oil's down and money is tight but aviation is booming. Maybe the world is not coming to an end. Stop that horse & buggy reno.

Ryanair Holdings PLC today (Thursday, 16th October 2008) announced that it has exercised options for 10 Boeing 737-800 Next Generation aircraft for delivery as follows: 3 in October 2010, and 7 in November 2010, under the terms of its 2005 Boeing agreement.

Thursday August 07 2008
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ryanair-orders-400-new-planes-despite-bleak-outlook-for-airlines-1448255.html
Ryanair, which warned last week it could be heading for its first loss since 1989, yesterday confirmed its next plane order will be for up to 400 aircraft, marking the company s largest fleet deal.
---
10:53 AM PDT on Wednesday, October 15, 2008

SEATTLE -- At about $8 billion the American Airlines order for 42 Boeing 787s is Boeing's biggest order of the year in dollar value.

At the Farnborough air show in England in July Air China ordered 45 aircraft worth $6.3 billion and FlyDubai ordered 50 Boeing 737s listed at $3.7 billion.

Some carriers with deep pockets, such as those from the Persian Gulf, are growing and grabbing traffic from weaker rivals. Turkish Airlines Inc. on Tuesday said it is soliciting offers for 105 jetliners from Airbus and Boeing.

Airbus this year has orders for 737 planes, after cancellations, and expects to deliver about 470 airliners, more than it ever has. It plans to increase output by almost 20% over the next two years.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122400856092533149.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
---
Set.29.2008
http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/aerospace/archives/149910.asp

Chinese airlines plan to order up to 280 Airbus jets, John Leahy, chief commercial officer, said Monday in the Chinese city of Tianjin.

coalition dreams

G West who wrote:
"...their best tactic is to harpoon Harper at the first opportunity; go to the governor general and create a coalition government of national unity among the three other parties in the house and govern for the good of all the people."

Absolutely right. However, Tranche correctly poses the question,
"How likely is it that all three parties will find it to their own benefit to knock off the Tories?"

It seems to me that there's not a dime's worth of difference, as Nader says, between the Libs and the Cons, and as such the monetary forces backing the Libs don't really care who rules, that the Greens could be merely a duped arm of the Cons meant to split the left, and that leaves only the Block and the NDP to hold the flag for the public realm.

If the opp. parties DON'T form an official coalition within 2 months, I'll take it as proof that what I've written above is more-or-less true and that any hope for this country to change its path from its hell-bent mission to become a land of the sold-out and enslaved from sea to shining sea is deader than a doornail.

Indeed

Coalition dreams, indeed. I find the concept of Bloc, Liberals and NDP in a coalition highly unlikely. The two independents would have to sign on for it to work, too.

Harper is what, something like 13 seats short of his majority anyway. He will stay the course and be very, very moderate until the next election. No big spending initiatives, no waves, no suprises.

He is an astute politician. He has brought the conservative party of Canada back from oblivion. Anyone trying to get his job would be well advised to realise this is the case.

Strategic Voting may also have been a winner

Edmonton Strathcona fell to the NDP - a story about which I hadn't heard much until a friend pointed me to Colby Cosh's column in the National Post.

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fullcomment/archive/2008/10/17/colby-cosh-there-are-lessons-to-learn-from-the-fate-of-rahim-jaffer.aspx

Readers may find it interesting. I certainly noticed these two paragraphs:

and

Perhaps there's a lesson here for all those disgruntled voters in Saanich and the Islands who still have Gary Lunn as their member.....

The real purpose of strategic voting

Well, given our choices, Hedy was the best of a bad lot. Lorne Mayencourt? The guy who has declared bankruptcy THREE times?

The Liberal Party's "paper" candidate in Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission once declared bankruptcy. He claimed that should not be held against him, that no one in Maple Ridge is actually owed money, he was hit by circumstances, etc.

Of course, his real purpose was to throw the Liberal vote strategically to the victorious Randy Kamp of the Conservatives. Keeping the NDP out is the real purpose of strategic voting.

G West

"That promise about never raising taxes is going to be a lot more difficult to keep"

And if he doesn't raise taxes, he will (as he did when he lowered the GST) cut services. Question that must be asked is, which services are those who favour tax cuts, willing to lose? I am willing to bet that it is services that accrue to "anyone but me"....
__________________________________________

And as far as judging Harper's performance, all we have to do is look at where we sit after 140 years of history. You'd think that in that period of time, we'd get it "right". Instead, we are "on the brink". That is what we've inherited from both Libs and Cons.

That the New Democrats are bereft of ideas is plain nonsense, as their ideas have never been implemented on a national scale, and so remain new, and untried.

On the other hand, ALL of the ideas of the so-called "right" (which includes the Libs and Cons) have been tried at one time or another, only to lead to crisis after crisis.

To deny that is to deny history.

History in the Making

RICKW-Quote

"That the New Democrats are bereft of ideas is plain nonsense, as their ideas have never been implemented on a national scale, and so remain new, and untried."

Quite Rick. It'll probably stay that way too, particularly since in this election the NDP garnered 7.5% of the Canadian population's (33,404,556) support. Almost exactly the same popular vote percentage they got in the 1984 election. No need to get too excited, that was a quarter of a century ago.

As you say, To deny that is to deny history.

Aw! well

IN Edmonton Strathcona I think you'll find that Rahim Jaffer scored about 42% (of the votes cast) and the NDP candidate got what?...42.5% - This in the very heart of the vile beast.

As for your figure of 7.5%, you need to do your maths again - no one, ever, reports percentages of the total population. The figure you're looking for is registered voters.

So get out that calculator again. And, the future is unknowable. I daresay nobody in blighty at the turn of the 19th century ever imagined women would get the vote and Labour would run your little homeland for a good chunk of the 20th century.

EDITED FOR PERSONAL JIBES -- MODERATOR

WHAT HAPPENED IN BC?

"Voters all across Canada elected the second largest caucus of New Democrats ever."

What went wrong with the NDP campaign in BC, G West? There were the candidate implosions, but is that enough to explain a three point drop when the Liberals were going down more like seven or eight points?

Why did so many former Liberal voters in the Vancovuer suburbs and the rest of the province vote Conservative? The NDP had always assumed that if they moved they would come to the NDP? What went wrong with that assumption? Was it ever valid?

Budd

Well, in Saanich and the Islands, you know the answer to that...I don't know enough about the demographics in places like Richmond and Surrey to answer with any confidence.

If I had to guess, I'd say that the simple fact conservatives and liberals aren't much different from each other is the main reason (swapping between those two marques isn’t much of a big deal)...and, I wouldn't discount the fact that a lot of Albertans have been moving to BC and they've brought their voting habits with them.

On the other hand, I'm originally from Saskatchewan and for most of my life I've tried to conjure with the different voting patterns of the citizens of that province from provincial to federal elections.

Some things don't have simple answers.

However, on balance, I still think it was a very successful campaign - but one that could have been a lot better with a little more attention paid to the candidate selection process.

I'm sure you know what I mean - having two candidates go to pot after the writ was dropped and another succumb to Liberal dirty tricks isn't the best way to get your efforts off and running.

What do you think?

Budd

Jeff Simpson has an opinion on this.

"...Mr. Layton made himself patently ridiculous..."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081017.cosimp18/BNStory/politics

Budd...

NDP

In BC dropped ~3 percentage points, why?

1. Federal NDP is further left-wing than their provincial counterparts in BC, Manitoba, and SK, which are orange Liberal parties;

2. In BC, the provincial NDP receives around 1/3 more vote than their federal counterparts;

3. Left-wing policies:

a) Evil oil companies and banks;

b) Rescind $50 billion in future tax cuts to small, medium, and big business;

c) Scrap Softwood lumber deal;

d) Byers "Let's shut-down oil sands".

Too kooky policy pronouncements for most BC'ers and certainly not supported by provincial NDP.

4. Effective anti-NDP ads by Tories:

a) "Ottawa NDP" voted against GST decrease;

b) "Ottawa NDP" voted against federal funding for road and bridge infrastructure in BC;

c ) "Ottawa NDP" soft on crime voting against crime bills;

Certainly not going to enamour suburban Metro Vancouverites to their cause;

5. In 2004 and 2006, NDP portrayed Tories as "Gordon Campbell" clones when BC Liberals were unpopular, but not this time around - was somewhat effective back then;

6. As a result NDP lost Vancouver Island North, Surrey North, and almost lost Burnaby Douglas and came in 3rd in Vancouver Centre;

7. Down swing in Liberal vote and uptick in Tory vote allowed NDP to come up the middle in Vancouver Kingsway with ~same votes as in 2006.

Liberals

1. Extremely weak leader in Dion and poor communicator - Ipsos BC poll showed Dion only had a 10% favourability rating in BC!;

2. Dion was on the centre-left wing of Liberal party;

3. Economy centre-most on voters minds - while Liberals platform centre-piece was the silly "Green Shift";

4. As a result Liberal voters stayed home in droves - down roughly 800,000 votes in Canada compared to Tories down ~100,000+ votes and NDP down ~70,000 votes country-wide;

5. In BC, Liberals either stayed home, voted with the party, or swung to the Tories based upon centre-right economic issues (an area where the federal NDP polled only ~10% nationally in terms of "best-suited to deal with the issue";

And there you have it in a simple nutshell.

Budd...

Another point to take into consideration is the Chinese-Canadian vote, which has stayed pretty loyal to the Liberals federally.

Again, based upon centre-right economic issues this time around, alot of that Chinese-Canadian support drifted over to the Tories for the first time.

Remember that centre-left "Green-Shift" Dion is a different animal than centre-right former finance minister Paul "balanced the budget" Martin within the Liberal party.

To top it all off, the Greens increased their vote in BC by around ~5% mostly at the expense of the Liberals and to a lesser extent the NDP.

r/man

Pretty much the sort of 'discourse' I've come to expect from Jeff Simpson.

He is a worn out echo of the past - just another example of an immigrant who brought his prejudices about the two party system with him from the United States.

Luke - you wrote that before the election - nothing in it actually reflects the situation on the ground or the results on the 14th...except no 5 - a lot of Liberals did go back to their right-wing roots - which is, in my view, exactly where they belong.

Poor old Jeffery Simpson. 23

Poor old Jeffery Simpson. 23 years in Canada and G West still calls him, "just another example of an immigrant who brought his prejudices about the two party system with him from the United States.".

Just like the ubiquitous engineer cab driver, Jeff can't get no respect - from morose NDPers like Westie. The message, 'don't meddle in our affairs or dare to have an opinion, you foreigner'.

'Foreigner' Jeff's, abridged, Wiki bio:
Jeffrey Carl Simpson (born 1949 in New York City, New York), is an influential Canadian journalist. For the past 23 years he has been The Globe and Mail's national affairs columnist. He has won all three of Canada's leading literary prizes — the Governor General's Award for non-fiction book writing, the National Magazine Award for political writing, and the National Newspaper Award [1] for column writing. He has also won the Hyman Solomon Award [2] for excellence in public policy journalism. In January, 2000, he became an Officer of the Order of Canada.

Simpson was born in New York and moved to Canada when he was 10 years old, when he studied at the University of Toronto Schools. He graduated from Queen's University in 1971 in History and Political Science. While at Queen's he wrote for the student newspaper The Queen's Journal, and worked for campus radio station CFRC. He won the University's Tricolour Award in his graduating year. He then went on to the London School of Economics. In 1972–1973, he worked as a Parliamentary Intern in Ottawa where he worked for Ed Broadbent. A year later, he joined The Globe and Mail newspaper.

Mr. Simpson is a frequent and enthusiastic participant in regular political debate on radio or television, in French and in English. He has been a guest lecturer at such universities as Oxford, Edinburgh, Harvard, Princeton, Brigham Young, Johns Hopkins, Maine, California plus more than a dozen universities in Canada. ...

Jeff Simpson: Not worth the time

realisticman

"Jeff Simpson has an opinion on this."

Why would anyone in BC care to read the opinions of someone like Jeff Simpson?

He has written columns on health economics that are based on supposed assumptions that Simpson himself knows are complete falsehoods, he has written stories based on nothing but the off-the-record whisperings of anonymous ministerial aids (over drinks?), he has written stories about BC industries that reflect the opinions and interests of the Toronto business establishment, and that's just for starters. The sad part is that he gets away with it.

Why would someone who thinks they're realistic be recommending Simpson's columns to anyone?

Thanks Gerry!

Luke Skywalker

1. Federal NDP is further left-wing than their provincial counterparts in BC, Manitoba, and SK, which are orange Liberal parties;

Wrong.

3. Left-wing policies:

Wrong.

4. Effective anti-NDP ads by Tories:

Correct. As usual, Gerry had no counter when needed. It was the same pattern he displayed in the provincial election 22 years ago, no flexibility, everything pre-packaged, no fall back plan if anyone so much as sneezes unexpectedly. It was for all intents and purposes a 1955 Yvonne Cocke campaign.

7. Down swing in Liberal vote and uptick in Tory vote allowed NDP to come up the middle in Vancouver Kingsway with ~same votes as in 2006.

There was clearly a BC-style coalition politics deal made to move a large block of boiler-room identified Liberals to the Conservatives everywhere outside Vancouver.

5. In BC, Liberals either stayed home, voted with the party, or swung to the Tories based upon centre-right economic issues (an area where the federal NDP polled only ~10% nationally in terms of "best-suited to deal with the issue";

Correct, but you're greatly understating the strategic voting that really went on, Liberals voting Conservative to block the NDP. As it turned out, thanks to complete and total mismanagement of the federal campaign in this province by entrenched and obsolescent officialdom at the BC NDP's provincial office, there wasn't much NDP blocking that was needed. Thanks Gerry!

Jeffrey Simpson

Jeffrey Simpson is a neo-con stool pigeon and thinking followers of Canadian politics know it.

The guy is successful at pulling the wool over his reader sheeples' eyes because he happens to be articulate and authoritatively verbose. Unfortunately, in this society of low expectations, window dressing in the guise of articulate, smooth verbiage more often baffles brains than not.

Simpson's pro-corporate ideas, for example, on how to fight global warming are laughably weak, full of delay tactics and of course... replete with denial.

Add to that the fact that his pro-American message is one that the big boys on Bay Street happen to like, and you've got a thick-headed journalist who wouldn't understand what policies make for the common public good if they whacked him on the head every time he turned on his computer.

Pi**ing into the wind

"Oil's down and money is tight but aviation is booming. Maybe the world is not coming to an end. Stop that horse & buggy reno."

It would appear Buttonwood disagrees with you. You and Sir John A and Luke may have to rethink your political prognostications in light of a longer downturn in the economy - traditionally better times for caring parties ont heleft of the spectrum. I think selfishness has had its run for this generation, and about time too. The Boomers' mantra "It's all about ME!" is wearing awfully thin.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12437747

Budd...

I do agree with ya in one respect. When I first heard about the cumulative $60 billion in additional federal tax relief (individuals, familes, business) from last October's federal "Economic Statement" I was a little concerned. (on top of all the earlier tax cuts)

http://www.budget.gc.ca/2008/plan/chap3b-eng.asp

I foresaw the federal govenment potentially approaching break-even/ perhaps even deficit position under that scenario without a financial cushion.

Furthermore, I would have preferred to have seen these corporate tax cuts expended on an enhanced national infrastructure program highways/transite/municipal infrastructure.

That said, Jack is on the wrong side of the tracks with his "working familes" and taking back the tax breaks from the "oil companies and banks".

Too much "working class" rhetoric in those phrases and people understandably come to the conclusion that the federal NDP just wants to additionally tax companies during tougher economic times as opposed to rescinding tax measures to bring them back to Paul Martin levels.

It's all in the messaging and perceptions.

Heck, most people identify themselves as part of the "middle-class", not the "working class".

As for Doer, yes he is a small "l" liberal and his government operates as same... Moving toward one of the lowest provincial corporate tax rates in Canada... IPP's in terms of wind energy electric generation...

That's why the swing middle-of-road voter has kept him in power for three elections. Totally different from the Schreyer days.

James on the other hand is more to the left of Harcourt... opposes BC provincial corporate tax cuts and promises not to have any more micro hydro IPPs... for starters. Certainly different from Doer.