Opinion

When Wall Street 'Flu' Hits BC

Where will Campbell point the finger this time?

By Rafe Mair, 13 Oct 2008, TheTyee.ca

Depression

Will voters blame BC Libs?

Text size:

Rate this:

Login/Register

Many long years ago there was a wonderful satirical cartoon called Pogo. Reflected in the animal citizens of Okefenokee Swamp were the frailties of politics and politicians. In one strip, Albert Alligator, sort of the Joe Six Pack of the community, arranged a picnic for the citizens of Okefenokee Swamp, and when it was over claimed credit for the beautiful weather.

"You can't claim credit for the weather, Albert," remonstrated Pogo, the laid-back wise man of the swamp.

"Why not?" replied Albert, "It happened during my administration, didn't it?"

Politicians in power, as a general if not infallible rule, will always take credit for whatever good happens and blame sunspots, the devil and especially the opposition when bad things happen. A thousand years or so ago, I went to hear a federal Liberal cabinet minister, Lionel Chevrier, speak. It was probably the election of 1962, when people had become fed up with John Diefenbaker and Liberal leader Lester Pearson was trying to win a majority government, which he never was able to do.

At any rate, Chevrier, a stereotypical parish pump politician thundered out: "They say Liberal times are good times and Tory times are bad times. My friends, the Tories say this is just a coincidence. I ask you, good people of Vancouver, which coincidence are you going to vote for?" Irresponsible, but a great line.

The last global economic crisis

In 1997, all economic hell broke out in Asia. Wikipedia, the online encyclopedia, puts it thusly:

"It started in Thailand with the financial collapse of the Thai baht caused by the decision of the Thai government to float the baht, cutting its peg to the USD, after exhaustive efforts to support it in the face of a severe financial overextension that was in part real-estate driven. At the time, Thailand had acquired a burden of foreign debt that made the country effectively bankrupt even before the collapse of its currency. As the crisis spread, most of Southeast Asia and Japan saw slumping currencies, devalued stock markets and other asset prices, and a precipitous rise in private debt. After the Asian crisis, international investors were reluctant to lend to developing countries, leading to economic slowdowns in developing countries in many parts of the world. The powerful negative shock also sharply reduced the price of oil, which reached a low of $8 per barrel towards the end of 1998, causing a financial pinch in OPEC nations and other oil exporters. This reduction in oil revenue contributed to the Russian financial crisis in 1998, which in turn caused Long-Term Capital Management in the United States to collapse after losing $4.6 billion in four months. A wider collapse in the financial markets was avoided when Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York organized a $3.625 billion bail-out. Major emerging economies Brazil and Argentina also fell into crisis in the late 1990s (see Argentine debt crisis)."

All this came when the New Democratic Party was in power here in B.C., and while all exports were hit, the lumber and pulp and paper industries, staples of our overseas exports, were hit the hardest.

While this was a cloudy time for the NDP, the Liberals were quick to deny them the defence that Asian imports were the problem.

Campbell made NDP wear it

The Liberal corollary to Albert Alligator's taking credit for good things was that if bad things happen during your administration, no matter what the cause, it's your fault.

Here's then-Opposition leader Campbell's reaction to the NDP claiming that B.C.'s economic problems were the result of the Asian economic "flu" and our inability to sell our products there:

On March 27, 1998, Campbell said, "The government is very fond of saying that this is the result of what they call the Asian flu. We are not suffering from the Asian flu; we are suffering from NDP pneumonia. It's been brought on by high taxes, high debt and high cost of government, and it's resulted in low-level economic vitality."

In April of 1998, in the Kamloops Daily News, Campbell was quoted thusly: "Listen to [Premier Glen Clark] talk and he's blaming the downturn in the economy on Asia. It has nothing to do with Asia and he knows it."

We must assume from these and many other pronouncements by Campbell and Co. that the corollary to Albert Alligator's dictum is: "If something bad occurs during your administration, it's your fault -- no ifs, ands or buts about it."

Next May 12, Campbell will seek another mandate just as the Wall Street "flu" hits here. Unlike in the case of the Asian flu, Campbell has been unable, if he ever thought about it, to see this coming. Under the Albert Alligator maxim, corollary thereto, mustn't voters thus conclude that this bad thing, having occurred during Campbell's administration, is his fault?

What's sauce for the goose (or alligator for that matter) is surely sauce for the gander.

Related Tyee stories:

[Tyee]

Rafe Mair's column for The Tyee runs every Monday.

31 Comments:

Login or register to post comments

  • Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Thanks again Rafe.

    I would expect that Gordon will make the claim that the Province is strong and stronger that it was under the NDP (he'll have to work that in) it can withstand a downturn better. He will be oblivious to the suffering of the citizens and talk about more tax cuts for business needed and more sell-offs of BC resources to attract more investment. He''l just borrow from Harper and hope the public is stupid.

  • jimmy_laroux

    3 years ago

    Great article, Rafe!

    Great article, Rafe!

    In 1997, BC's real GDP growth was 3.2% (to put this into perspective, real GDP growth in 2006 was 3.3% and 3.1% in 2007). In 1998, after the "flu", BC's real GDP growth was 1.3%, a precipitous drop.

    http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/bus_stat/bcea/bcgdp.asp

    And in 2008? Growth has been forecast at 1.2% by the Province's own forecasting body, after several previous proved to be far too optimistic (Taylor previously forecast 2.4% growth in GDP). It would not surprise me is this estimate proves to as well.

    http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=5e0b9fb3-1ad1-4083-a6a3-8e64a434b766

    http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=19c7b2c4-7dd1-4ac3-8b5b-9b7eeac6d4c3

    So is this slump to be blamed on "fate's cruel hand" or Liberal leukemia?

  • steveleenow

    3 years ago

    Who to vote for?

    I can't bring myself ever to vote NDP but I definitely can't vote for the Liberals. I'm not happy with the job the Liberals have done as the government, nor am I happy with how ineffective the NDP has been as opposition. And neither seem to be offering the solutions we need to move into the future. It doesn't leave one with much choice, does it?

  • egmont rapids

    3 years ago

    The levee has broke

    It matters not,people on mass have decided that Campbell must go.
    The toll removal will not help,people are also well aware that Campbell has been gouging in good times,despite the tax cuts,every tax breaks gets replaced with a gouge that returns more money to goverment than the tax cut costs.
    Take BC hydro-hydro went up last spring by 15 %---Hydro went to the BCUC this fall and applied for 2 teir hydro--The proposal was to charge 7.00 kwh for usage above 1350 kwh per month but to sell it they proposed lowering the base rate by 3%--The BCUC granted the request.

    Now here is the dirty low down deed that Campbell made hydro do--

    After the BCUC granted that 2 teir that started oct 1--Three weeks before the 2 teir came into effect BC Hydro went back to the BCUC and asked to raise the base rate 13%!
    BCUC said sure go ahead,so last year HYDRO made about 400 million,BC HYdro year over year increase to rate payers is about 40%

    People of BC know that Campbell is a fibbing gouger in good finacial times,people are afraid of what Campbell is capable in bad finacial times,therefor the people of BC will not give him that chance! Period!
    P.S Why has Campbell been hiding the latest Canwest Ipsos reid poll showing support for the BC Liberals has gone south.

    BC NDP have a 10 point plus lead and growing over Campbell and there is nothing that can turn it around!

  • DPL

    3 years ago

    I'd won't dismiss King Gordo

    I'd won't dismiss King Gordo as he will do anything to remain in power. He wanst to be the poster boy for the Olympics, a event that is costing us more each day. all that money for two weeks exposure, is in my view not worth the expense. I don't need the Olympics to watch a professional Hockey team play another professional hocky team. And now they have to admit their budget for security was a bit low. Low by around 800 million for that one item alone. The BC citzens have to ask themselves if they want that gang around for four more years and then do something about it.

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    egmont rapids

    Quote:
    BC NDP have a 10 point plus lead and growing over Campbell and there is nothing that can turn it around!

    I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

    Historically the provincial NDP polls ~10% - ~12% less than their federal counterparts due to some federal Lib/Con shift from the provincial NDP.

    (Eg. Provincial BC NDP in May 2005 election - 42%, federal NDP in January, 2006 election - 29%)

    Today's larger sample federal election eve BC polls show the federal NDP down between 4% - 7% in BC from 2006 and that does not bode well for the provincial NDP.

  • egmont rapids

    3 years ago

    I thought you were busy working,spinning

    For the up coming provincial bi-election Luke Skywalker.
    LS--I have seen this too many times before,it doesn`t matter about policy,promises,money,anything,once people on mass decide they just don`t like someone,thats it.
    Keith Baldrey in response to the last Angus Reid poll that had the BC NDP up by 3 points stated-" I can`t wait for the septempber Ipsos Reis poll to compare numbers"?
    Seems that september IPSOS REID POLL has been tucked away somewhere,perhaps into a burning fireplace?

    The bi-elections will tell a story,please don`t give me any garbage about goverments always lose bi-elections,the spread and margin of defeat will tell the story!

    Too many mistakes,pay raises,private jet ride,autistic funding,olympic concealment,job losses,CARBON TAX, fish farms,translink gouging(property taxes,car levy,road tolls,congestion charges etc)
    Surrey memorial hospital,childrens care,seniors care,TILMA,CORRUPTION (dobell,Fraser,BASI,john les,giles,kinsella)
    Hydro rates,Teresan gas rates,ferries,diabetic insulin pumps for kids,RUN OF RIVER,WFP ILLEGAL LAND GIVEAWAY, I could go on for another hour but thats more than enough.

    Add that to the fact that people just don`t like the arrogance,aloofness,the better than the masses Gordon Campbell.

    So my freind Luke Skywalker, GAME,SET,MATCH

  • jimmy_laroux

    3 years ago

    A bit of a stretch.

    Luke Skywalker:

    Quote:
    Historically the provincial NDP polls ~10% - ~12% less than their federal counterparts due to some federal Lib/Con shift from the provincial NDP.

    Do you mean more? Also, so what? The latest provincial poll (at least that I can find):

    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2008/08/27/bc-liberal-ndp-poll.html

  • egmont rapids

    3 years ago

    LS

    The reason the federal NDP are down in this province is,people don`t want more taxes!
    The reason the federal Liberals are down in BC is two fold.

    1--Campbell has completely tarnished the liberal brand in BC(even though Campbell is no liberal)

    2--BC has completely rejected more carbon taxes(which explains Campbell doing nothing but back flips on the carbon tax)

    Which puts Campbell in a very difficult spot,if Campbell goes ahead with the carbon tax increase he`s screwed.

    If Campbell backs off on the carbon tax he`s screwed because--

    All those speeches about the fight of our lives,we must do it for future generations,for the grandchildren etc etc etc.
    For Campbell to back off because of political pressure would expose his fraud,his lies,his lack of integrity,what would Campbell say.

    "Because of economic woes the granchildren are out of luck,we met our targets,I was wrong,the streets are empty of cars etc etc etc!

    Campbell has boxed himself in,live by the sword,die by the election box!

  • Luke Skywalker

    3 years ago

    Correction...

    Quote:
    Do you mean more?

    Yep. Too much turkey last night. :)

  • egmont rapids

    3 years ago

    Jimmy_ laroux

    Yes and I love the comments section under that poll,notice the most recomended comments,no BC liberal fans at the CBC!

  • cboo44

    3 years ago

    Voting NDP :(

    As much as I believe that the NDP couldn't manage a lemonade stand, Gordo and his policies of selling off the public assets of BC has got to be stopped. That is the single most important and critical issue in the next provincial election for the sake of ALL British Columbians and our future generations.
    The idiot NDPers will "freeze university tuition" just like last time, which starved universities and ended up requiring a big increase when the freeze was taken off, they will do all sorts of government department "reorganizations" which will do nothing except delay services, allow tree-huggers to dictate resource policies, hire lots of temporary government workers and just like ALL political parties, hire all their friends to do not much of anything in bloated government ministries.
    With all this foresight, I'm STILL going to hold my nose and vote for them, just to stop that damn Campbell.

  • ripponfalls

    3 years ago

    The next "Not the NDP"

    Each time a party totally discredits itself and implodes here in Lotus Land, we get another - with the same policies, the same supporters, and a lot of the same politicians.

    Since the Social Credit (remember them, Rafe?) are gone, and now the Liberals are going down the tube, I guess that leaves the provincial Conservatives - unless the coming tsunami finds Harper still in Ottawa, in which case we'll think up something, because if Harper self destructs with the CPC/Reform/Alliance, there will undoubtedly be a new "Western Canada Party" out flogging the dead horse of right wing nutsy fundamentalist redemption.

    R. Smiley

  • OilbertaRedTory

    3 years ago

    Harper Times ...

    ... are Tough Times

    http://ca.youtube.com/watch?v=eqQ3WzbWH_k

  • Grumpy

    3 years ago

    It's more than Wall St. Blues.........

    ..........it's terminal Wall St. pneumonia. Wall St., like Campbell & Co. are not men of business, rather they are percentage % business men, who make their living buying and selling stocks or property, making income on the percentage of profit made. This sort of economy firmly believes that the economy will increase forever and ever, providing larger and larger incomes. It completely defies the law of logic, nothing can expand indefinitely.

    The Western World's major countries bail-out, over $3 Trillion (haven't a clue about how many zeros are there) of Banks, etc. shows that the West's notion of 'Free Enterprise' is as dead as Russia's notion of Communism. But don't tell the USA or Canadian politicains because they firmly believe that the old model is working - it isn't.

    Campbell & Co. are stuck in this 1990's fuelled economic fantasy land that buy printing oodles of paper money, fawning over massively corrupt international corporations (IOC included), and overseeing the de-industrialization of BC in favour of the nebulous, new economy, is leading down the road to economic hell.

    Campbell may be stuck with a 2009 economic flu, but what is waiting around the corner is a terminal economic pneumonia.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    And the bail out shows few signs of actually working

    After a few moments of irrational exuberance, the Dow is down again from Friday's close.

  • Van Isle

    3 years ago

    I agree with Grumpy that

    I agree with Grumpy that Campbell and his band of Bandits aren't business people and couldn't run a candy stand. They're hucksters, flim-flam artists, salesmen and that's it; know when to buy and sell (and what to sell). To those people who think that the NDP were bad at running this province; well, just look who we have running it now and the economy is suppose to be good, they're still doing a balls-up. I think the NDP could do a better job with their eyes closed than this bunch of hoodlums are doing.

  • Skywalker

    3 years ago

    It will be the southern BC Media

    Campbell and Co. will finally get it's comeuppance. What remains to be seen is how the corporate media will hold him to account for what was said in 1997 and what he will say when the Wall Street Flu really hits BC. It is this media bias which will determine whether he gets to escape the same accountability he demands of others.

    You can expect CTV and BCTV to bombard us with all the cliches about the need to tighten outr belts and the need for restraint will once more be the mantra. One should never underestimate the gullibility of the voters. Right Luke?

  • lynn

    3 years ago

    ....speaking of Wall St.....this just in:

    From an email:Japan's Bank Crisis

    "Following the problems in the sub-prime lending market in America and the run on Northern Rock in the UK, uncertainty has now hit Japan. In the last 7 days Origami Bank has folded, Sumo Bank has gone belly up, and Bonsai Bank announced plans to cut some of its branches. Yesterday, it was announced that Karaoke Bank is up for sale and will likely go for a song,, while Sushi bank is a little fishy. Samurai bank is making cuts, while Ninja bank has gone quiet and Kamikazi bank has crashed."

  • G West

    3 years ago

    Origami Bank has 'folded'!!!

    That's priceless Lynn...and it gets better as you go along.

  • RickW

    3 years ago

    For those of you who don't like Libs or NDP....

    ....you can always vote Green.

  • Kam Lee

    3 years ago

    Well, we got what we voted

    Well, we got what we voted in. Campbell is a crook! He hires crooks, and its all coming to an end. Let's just get the Virk, Basi, Virk trial on the front burner. Ask why the media (MSM) says nothing. He is the root, and its time to pull the root out. This world wide situation may not be his fault, but the home grown mess we have is. He has lied, cheated, mislead way to much. NDP all the way, at least there will be some honesty. No golden handshake for gordo and his pals also. With the olypics coming, hang onto your ass. Gonna be a rough ride. Thanks gordo.

  • David Lewis

    3 years ago

    Wall Street "flu"

    Krugman is saying this "flu" is going to be in a range from a one year horror to a ten year Japan style stagnation, depending on what policy is applied.

    He's not impressed with Paulson and is publicly saying the guy has a lot to answer for as, after he blew everything out by letting Lehman die, he didn't have the right plan and tools at hand to act decisively until three weeks later.

    But, now that Krugman is God after they handed him the Nobel just after he was seen to be calling for a big change in Treasury policy that they did change to that seems to be working so far, I suppose he's got to be generous, he's saying they've had worse Treasury Secretaries down there.

    He's long on criticism and short on his own suggestions at this moment, if I could fully understand what he's going on about anyway. Because this thing is unique, and no one was prepared for it, obviously, the tools available were insufficient, the government is not a world government, there isn't a single world currency, no world Fed or Treasury, so your average Joe Three Pack (my Canadian dollar tanked and my house value is probably plummeting, although I have no stocks) like me thinks they've done not that badly.

    It isn't a collapse of the US dollar, unlike what your example above goes on about with Thailand, and the rest of Asia. The dollar strengthened as the investors that were dumping stocks rushed into Treasuries. So it seems, so far it is not a loss of confidence in the US. But an economy that is dependent for 70% of its activity on the faith Joe Three Pack has that if he spends what he has today he'll be able to get more to spend from somewhere tomorrow must surely have been shaken and must surely take some time to recover.

    Your call for Campbell to get hit with the sauce now even if there's no logical way to pin it on him seems just. That guy is hard to take if you examine what he's said in the past when he wasn't in power then compare to now.

    I've got a soft spot for him because he has been leading on climate policy.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    David Lewis

    Krugman is the best of a bad lot...but the suggesting this little bauble is a real 'NOBEL' prize is absurd.

    It's a little gimmee the economists dreamed up themselves a few years back - you can check it out.

    As for this mess being unexpected...hardly.

    You just haven't been paying attention.

    You can catch up here:

    http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini

  • G West

    3 years ago

    errata

    should be; 'but suggesting'... in sentence one above

  • David Lewis

    3 years ago

    why worry what I think?

    I thought I was a paid Liberal shill? Who cares what I write? Why do you?

    I wasn't aware that you know more than the Nobel committee. You should consider putting out your own awards. Then the world would know who to pay attention to. Keep up the great work. I've wondered about those Nobel committees ever since they refused to recognize Einstein.

  • G West

    3 years ago

    It wasn't created by the Nobel committee

    It's an award created by a Swedish Bank....please, will you accept this as my evidence:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/14/business/14nobel.html?scp=1&sq=krugman%20wins%20nobel%20economics%20prize&st=cse

    Or this:

    Quote:
    The Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, officially named The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel (Swedish: Sveriges riksbanks pris i ekonomisk vetenskap till Alfred Nobels minne), is an award for outstanding contributions in the field of economics and is generally considered one of the most prestigious awards in that field.It is commonly referred to as the Nobel Prize in Economics and it is identified with the Nobel Prizes, although it is not one of the five Nobel Prizes (in Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, Literature, and Peace) which were established by the will of Alfred Nobel in 1895. The Prize in Economics, as it is frequently referred to by the Nobel Foundation, is a prize established and funded by the Bank of Sweden, in memory of Alfred Nobel. It was instituted in 1968 on the 300th anniversary of Sveriges Riksbank (the central bank of Sweden, sometimes called the Bank of Sweden or the Swedish National Bank)

    source - Wikipedia (for which I apologize - I'm in a hurry)

    Now, I actually like Krugman a lot, for an economist... and I agree with much of what he has to say.

    My main point simply was that this economic meltdown was not unforeseen AND that Krugman's Economics Prize had nothing to do with the meltdown. His expertise is trade patterns.

    As for responding to you or anyone else - I'm more than happy to correct anyone's mistakes and, I'm glad you're not a paid Campbell shill.

    We have enough of those already.

    No hard feelings.

  • vote4mikesummers

    3 years ago

    Dissatisfied politics

    There is another way to vote.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isDc55Fl9WQ

  • doggone

    3 years ago

    Thought this might be interesting

    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-10/14/content_10193732_1.htm

  • Joe Bftsplk

    3 years ago

    Is that Plumber guy around here?

    Anyone see Joe the Plumber? I'm still looking for him. That's you Joe. You hear me?

  • Joe Bftsplk

    3 years ago

    xinhua

    Xinhua had some realistic comment on the G8 climate statement put out recently also. The link up there, in the post "Thought this might be interesting" from "doggone" on the economic crisis is an interesting read.

    The Chinese have a very big investment in US Treasuries and they are living by trading with the West. Its not like when they were isolated and we might expect them to cheer if capitalism was going down for the count.

    They must be standing behind the scenes on the side with those working for stability. We're where we are because of what we've been doing for decades, and the most important debate is where we're going to go from here.

    • The discussion for this story is closed. No more comments can be added.