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Bill Blowing the Election
Goodbye Billary, hello Obama. And more hunches.
Bill's mouth turned off blacks.
The American political melodrama intensifies. Here we are on the eve of the Florida primary, a week before Super Tuesday, when nearly half of the American electorate will go to the polls.
Let's sort out the Republicans first, then the Democrats -- including how Bill Clinton may have scuttled Hillary's chances by offending black voters.
Giuliani's lost cause
Florida will end the curious semi-campaign of Mayor Rudi, and serve as a prelude to the choice between John McCain and Mitt Romney. (By the way just what kind of name is Mitt?)
Some have speculated that Giuliani gave up the campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire because he is ill. In any event it was a stupid strategy, as voters simply did not consider him as part of the mix until it was too late for him. Then too, with the unraveling of the economy, voters have come to fear domestic issues more than terrorism, and Giuliani was campaigning as the tough guy who would deal sternly with terrorism. He is proud to be as mean as a scrapyard dog.
Actually I think voters are sick of the endless fear-mongering of the Bush administration, and if the issue has slipped in priority, Giuliani doesn't have much more on offer. He is too moderate on issues like abortion for the Republican core. And he has a strange marital history, more than a passing interest in wearing dresses, and a history of personal vindictiveness. Come to think of it, his candidacy has always been amazing.
Mike Huckabee is charming but also believes the earth is flat. And he actually believes that the rich are not above criticism and that some taxes might be useful. Of course he also believes in the abolition of all other taxes in favour of a 23 per cent GST -- fiscal flat-Earthism. Too eccentric by half for everyone but the born-agains, who are an important part of the Republican coalition, but not the only part.
McCain if they're smart
So will it be McCain or the Mitt? Neither man quite fills the bill even for all the Republican base. Romney, smug, plastic and unlikable, has switched from pro- to anti-choice. Of course he had to be pro-choice to get elected governor of Massachusetts and he had to flip-flop to appeal to Republicans in the current campaign, but such changes appear a bit too baldly power-determined. And he is a Mormon, a conservative white-bread sect that true Evangelicals consider a cult.
That leaves McCain, also a problem for many Republican voters, as he is a loose canon. He angered many by co-sponsoring, with Wisconsin's Russ Feingold, the most radical Democrat in the Senate, a bill to reform electoral financing, and he has stood up against the use of torture in the Bush administration.
Also on the debit side for Republicans, McCain is 71 years old, tied to the unpopular war in Iraq, and simply not one of the fat-cat inner circle that has always been able to anoint candidates, most recently creating W out of smoke (from oil fires) and mirrors.
So Republicans will essentially be choosing from two candidates of limited appeal to themselves. If they are smart they will go for McCain, who is attractive to independent and even some conservative Democratic voters. He also has a fantastic "story" -- six years as a POW in Hanoi, where he was tortured. He can talk of the traditional notions of sacrifice without being a complete hypocrite. Of course he is also very, very conservative on the whole, although nobody's obvious tool.
OK. You see my guess, but we should probably only have to wait until Super Tuesday to find out.
Or maybe not. It could be that this raft of primaries will not be decisive, that none of the subsequent ones will be either, and that the party choice will have to wait until the convention. Lots of pundits are saying that -- probably as a device to hedge their bets -- as none of us really knows what motivates voters.
In any event, the same possibility of a deadlocked primary result also exists among the Democrats.
Bad-Mouth Bill
Until last Saturday, I believed that Hillary Clinton (or more accurately, "Billary," as Frank Rich of the New York Times calls them, "Hillbilly" being too bigoted an alternative), was going to be able to maintain what had been an enormous lead before Iowa. Billary are the party establishment, and lots of Democrats owe them favours. They have the machine that can turn out working class and older voters. And Hillary has enormous sympathy from women voters, for very good reasons.
However, Hillary is stolid and too obviously a cautious incrementalist while Barack Obama, who shares most of Hillary's views on the issues, is a brilliantly charismatic figure who can ignite a broad new electorate. Hillary reminds Democrats of their past, and she would galvanize Republicans and many independents against her, while Barack can reach a whole new electorate among these same voters, thus solidifying a majority in the general election. He appeals to idealistic upper middle class voters, and more importantly, young voters who might actually get off their duff and vote were he the candidate. He reminds many people of both Martin and Bobby.
Enter Bad-Mouth Bill. I believe that Bill Clinton has made the fatal error of the Billary campaign. Over the last couple of weeks he lit out after Barack in a way that deeply offended black voters, and Hillary chimed in as well. Now she says ol' Bill may just have been tired, but the Clintons indeed played the race card, thus reminding Democratic voters of the worst of the old style in American politics.
Let me insert my wee original, psychologically reductionist analysis of this deep error of Billary. I believe that Bill is dead anxious to make Hillary president. I mean that literally -- I believe that his anxiety drove his big mouth. Being the preeminent power couple of American politics, both Clintons, who have been frightened by the dramatic rise of Barack, have responded from their guts to the need to fight off this rising threat. Goddamn it, it was their turn and who the hell is this young dude to come in and take what they merit. Entitlement, anger, anxiety, and the lust for power led them over the precipice.
And the progressives now have a reason to choose the black man over the woman. The Kennedys coming over is deeply significant in this regard, as with them lies the older, idealistic, pre-Billary element of a party that was nearly triangulated to death by Bill Clinton, crypto-Republican.
Obama, the new Kennedy?
Not that Barack is actually much different from Hillary on the issues. Not that he necessarily would be more capable as president.
But Barack, whose "story" is also attractive, appeals to independents and even some Republicans; he would match up against McCain far better than would Hillary, who turns off many in her own party and doesn't have much appeal beyond there.
There are imponderables here. Hispanic Americans do not like African-Americans -- some pundits call them Hillary's firewall, especially in states like California where they are numerous. And older Democrats like her sort of message. But here is where Teddy Kennedy will be important. He will be on the road with Barack the next eight days, and he appeals to many of the same older voters and Hispanics, as does Hillary, albeit not for identical reasons.
Let me conclude with a close to home story, actually an at home story. My astutely political wife, like me a dual citizen, recently voted in the advanced ballot in California. She told me that she had been hanging fire, wanting to support a woman. But last week she voted for Barack, to considerable degree in reaction to the bad-mouthing from Billary. Of course this is a rather small sample, and the next week -- being forever in politics, right? -- may see Barack make his own faux pas, or Billary recover.
OK then, two hunches -- McCain and Obama.
Last time around I predicted in this publication that John Kerry would win the presidency, so take my prognostication with several shakers of salt.
Great sport, ain't it!
Related Tyee stories:
- Can Obama Keep Hope Alive?
Now the knives are really out. - Harper, Bush Share Roots in Controversial Philosophy
Close advisers schooled in 'the noble lie' and 'regime change.' - What the World Wants in Leaders
Apparently, someone honest, normal and nice.
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33
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G West
4 years ago
Michael...We'll have to see, but,
I made that same prediction - Obama v McCain - in these pages some weeks ago.
I even went further and called it Obama/Edwards vs McCain/Lieberman with the Senator from Connecticut added to the GOP team to try and corral a few more independents and the Jewish vote for the Republicans.
We'll have to see, the Clintons aren't dead yet and some members of the moral 'majority' clearly despise the 'war' hero McCain.
ME2
4 years ago
Maybe, just maybe, there's hope
Without Obama there, my preference would be for Billary. Even so, any enthusiam for them was considerably watered down by her initial support - even if it was only opportunistic - for Bush's war in Iraq.
SharingIsGood
4 years ago
Don't forget
The MSM is just as expert down south as it is here in putting the video-bites it wants the people to see/hear on the TV. CNN and fox have been falling over themselves trying to weaken Hillary as they saw Obama as someone the ultra-right might be able to beat, either in an election or through manipulation of Congress should Obama win. Now that Obama is gaining steam, they may have gotten a more powerful foe than they had wanted. I believe that he may be the best chance for the US to salvage some dignity in dealing with the Middle East. Though he somewhat nebulous, Obama is bright, has no real baggage; and he has been schooled in Islam.
James Burns
4 years ago
We'll see
It's really hard to say. Latent racism in the US is exceptionally powerful, and it's strongest amongst the older generations (40+ years). And if anything Hispanics in the US have even greater racist antipathy toward blacks than whites do. Add the identity politics of the older generation of feminists and you've got Billary yet again. But if it were up to younger voters, it would be Obama by a landslide. He's also got the black vote now, barring any major screw ups.
Yeah on race, Billary screwed up big time, both of them. No surprise really given the type of people they are. Bill's presidency proved many times over just how lacking in principles the pair really are.
But I suspect the Kennedy endorsement will be more powerful amongst the Democratic party old timers than many suspect.
We'll all just have to wait and see. I will say though, if it's Clinton against McCain, McCain will win. Too many progressives and young people will stay home if Billary is the Democratic nominee.
If it's Obama though, the election will be extremely vicious. Attack ads will undoubtedly reach a new low in lies and fear mongering. But, again barring major screw ups, he'll win by a landslide. Unfortunately, unless he's made of sterner stuff than he seems to be, we'll just be getting more of the status quo, with a softer darker face. He'll really need to shock the system in the US to affect real positive change, and frankly, given Obama's message I just don't see that happening. Then again events may just force his hand, and I think he leans in a progressive direction when given little or no choice. We'll see.
G West
4 years ago
James Sharing...Agreed
As long as he doesn't screw one of those little flag pins to his lapel I won't give up hope.
He seems at least partially inoculated against the overweening narcissism that animates most Americans most of the time...
Tuesday Feb 5 will likely tell the tale.
I do think that an Obama candidacy will make the election campaign a brutal one.
cboo44
4 years ago
Obama's Candidacy
I believe that Obama is the United States' ONLY hope to recover it's democracy from the Cheney-Halliburton White House subversion of the Constitution and Bill of Rights. However, I fear that he will not live to take office. The entrenched, established, political/lobby and control establishment has too much to lose.
Skywalker
4 years ago
Ted Kennedy?
A Ted Kennedy endorsement could be the kiss of death if anyone is concerned about principles. There is a great danger in getting on a "bandwagon". The expectations if Obama wins will be so so great and he won't be able to live up to them. America is run by the big corporations and it will take a lot more than one person in the white house. There is still congress and a democrat president can't always depend on "loyalty" from democrat senators or congressmen or women. It just does not work that way. If the very popular Chavez could not get a referendum passed due to multinationals meddling in the process, how much easier will it be t stymie a president on the home turf.
The campaign will be brutal for sure. Wait till the republicans focus on him.
Van Isle
4 years ago
Why is it that most of the
Why is it that most of the mass-media doesn't even mention Ron Paul at all? He's the only candidate who talks about REAL change which would really shake up the status quo and he doesn't talk in riddles.
alda
4 years ago
winners and losers
My prediction is that if McCain wins, the US will be heading into unmitigated disaster, and if Hilary or Obama win, the result will be virtually the same -- only their fists will be masked by velvet.
None of these smooth-talking, phony, empty-rhetoric-spieling heads would have be allowed to step on stage in the debates if they didn't cater precisely to the corporate status quo, hook, line, and sinker. They're pro-war, pro-corporate, anti-univeral healthcare (Hilary, notwithstanding), anti-environment, anti-labor, blah, blah, blah.
Kucinich, Gravel, and even Ron Paul were the only ones, imo, who spoke the unvarnished truth and offered the voter real change. And as a reward, how much time did the networks give them? Not the time of day... Which is exactly what John, Hilary, or Obama will give the dopey, surprised, and deeply disappointed Joe and Jane back, yet again, when voted into power.
James Burns
4 years ago
Change sometimes only comes with crisis
Skywalker, if Obama does become president the kind of change he will be able to enact will depend on just how bad the coming economic fallout is. The worse it is, the more likely he will be able to reform things significantly. What I don't know is whether he will actually move in a progressive direction if given the opportunity, or simply use bandaids and bailing wire to try and maintain the status quo.
If another Republican is elected, and there is a severe economic crisis, he will likely eviscerate what social supports the US has left. It will be the shock doctrine on the whole country as opposed to just New Orleans. Things will likely get very dangerous in the US, but I don't think there will be wholesale collapse. It'll be more like a smoldering tire fire that just pollutes every thing around it with choking smoke
My biggest concern is that whoever is elected may start a big war to give Americans the motivation to sacrifice enough to get out of their economic doldrums. I don't think that will work, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them try it.
Red Herring
4 years ago
Female leaders,like in Europe
We all have our druthers,and the nominations are not over till the fat lady sings.
When will North Americans ever learn, that a woman who has the moxy to become a leader, would have to work extremely hard to do a worse job than a male.
We have had male leaders on both sides of the border, ad nauseam, and look where it has got us.
They have Bush, we have Harper.
Hillary might win the nomination if the voters recognize that Obama is one of the best examples of a huckster playing every card possible.
His broad appeal to a cross section of voters,leaves one to wonder,how come it's always the soap salesman who reaches the gullible.
Too bad it is not his wife running,then the electorate could have the best of two worlds.
I personally would like to see female who has paid her dues, trump a "Johnny Come Lately" whose promises are suspiciously like he is a "Huey Long" from the North.
lynn
4 years ago
US-Style Democracy/US-Style Holocaust
From John Pilger's: The Danse Macabre of US-Style Democracy:
http://www.antiwar.com/pilger/?articleid=12251
Traveling with Robert Kennedy in 1968 was eye-opening for me. To audiences of the poor, Kennedy would present himself as a savior. The words "change" and "hope" were used relentlessly and cynically. For audiences of fearful whites, he would use racist codes, such as "law and order." With those opposed to the invasion of Vietnam, he would attack "putting American boys in the line of fire," but never say when he would withdraw them. That year (after Kennedy was assassinated), Richard Nixon used a version of the same, malleable speech to win the presidency. Thereafter, it was used successfully by Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and the two Bushes. Carter promised a foreign policy based on "human rights" – and practiced the very opposite. Reagan’s "freedom agenda" was a bloodbath in Central America. Clinton "solemnly pledged" universal health care and tore down the last safety net of the Depression.
Nothing has changed. Barack Obama is a glossy Uncle Tom who would bomb Pakistan. Hillary Clinton, another bomber, is anti-feminist. John McCain’s one distinction is that he has personally bombed a country. They all believe the US is not subject to the rules of human behavior, because it is "a city upon a hill," regardless that most of humanity sees it as a monumental bully which, since 1945, has overthrown 50 governments, many of them democracies, and bombed 30 nations, destroying millions of lives.
slim
4 years ago
Entitlements
Hillary Clinton deserves to be the Democratic nominee because she is entitled to her entitlements. She is experienced. She served under Bill Clinton. So did Monica.
DPL
4 years ago
Let's not put our money on
Let's not put our money on the senator from somewhere who is being touted as the new Kennedy, I'm still betting on Hillary. She has politics in her bones A lot of americans might not vote for her , since she is a "her" but a whole lot more won't vote for Obama because of his race. But just like the rest of the posters here, we don't really have much of a say. The US citizens stay away from voting booths in big numbers. The one who can get their supporters there just like here will win.
The Florida vote today will be telling for the ex mayor of New York. Super Tuesday will be even more interesting. My God, US elections sure are drawn out events. It seems to go on forever and the money spent is massive
G West
4 years ago
DPL - I disagree
Are you seriously telling me you 'like' dynastic politics?
I think that the very idea that Hillary Clinton should even consider 'running' for President is absurd; as absurd as the fact that there have been two 'Bush' presidencies within the space of less than 10 years.
Bring on Obama - he'll be about the same age as Kennedy was when he came to power - Hillary will be an old woman. It's time for a change and time for some youth and new ideas. And he’s a man who HAS traveled and lived extensively outside the United States – even the fact he’s of mixed race is an enormous positive for an America where immigrants and people of other races and colours are becoming a significant part of the population.
The Americans actually have a chance to do something unique this time - Hillary, the anti-feminist Feminist, would just be more of the same.
It's a huge country - if the Americans had wanted a king they should have stuck with George III - Lizzy Windsor couldn't have been worse than GW.
James Burns
4 years ago
Ah yes sexism
What an utter load of sexist crap. Women have proven time and time again that they are just as capable of being terrible leaders as men. I'm disgusted by identity politics. I find it laughable that so many so-called feminists trot out the myth of the more competent woman simply by virtue of her sex. It makes no more sense than making the same argument based on the melanin content of someone's skin. Grow up.
greengreen
4 years ago
Cynicism abounds. No
Cynicism abounds. No wonder!
Still would like a Clinton/Obama ticket (first female pres., first black v.pres) four to eight years later, Obama could take over.
Actually, if Obama makes it much farther, he will be killed. Yes, the U.S. could sink lower than it already has.
G West
4 years ago
greengreen
Clinton won't beat McCain - she's the one democratic candidate who won't be able to hold the youth vote and McCain is the one GOP candidate who can hold the right wing together for one last gasp.
In my view Clinton is a bad idea for the Americans. Obama looks to the future – Clinton is mired in the past.
It’s time to move on – and I don’t see that as being cynical!
G West
4 years ago
By the way
Just happened by the National Review (Online) to find this little gem from Mark Steyn:
"I'm rooting for Hillary to win big."
I'll let you figure out why - needless to say because he's afraid that:
a) The GOP can't beat Obama, and
b) With Obama in the White House, his charisma might actually allow him (given a Democratic congress) to actually push through transformative change.
It is going to be interesting - no question.
nightbloom
4 years ago
Good title. Fellman’s so
Good title. Fellman’s so right about the visceral anxiety driving Bill Clinton’s consecutive misfires and unseemly verbal discharges. I’ll even up Fellman’s psychologically reductionist ante to the realm of Freudian neurosis and draw a parallel between Bill’s impulsive and reckless verbal emissions with the compulsive incontinence that characterized his closed-door behaviour in the Oval Office. We’re finally seeing the “other Bill” we only heard about.
Skywalker
4 years ago
Now what?
And then there is Florida. Which all proves that the American system is an abortion or making a projection is a waste of time.
BC Mary
4 years ago
You want change? I'll give you change ...
Sorry I can't give you the exact words, as I was in a great hurry, one morning, as I read Christie Blatchford reporting from deep into USA's presidential primaries.
She had subjected herself to speech after speech, each of presidential candidate offering CHANGE!!
One candidate after another promised to change this, to change that, to change things which didn't even need to change and then to change things back again.
Blatchford doesn't suffer fools gladly.
One day, she wrote, as she was starting off on her morning duties, a sidewalk panhandler in this US town appealed to her for "Change?"
Blatchford, she wrote in The Globe and Mail, whirled on him shrieking "Change? By God, I'll give you change ... !!"
Canis Latrans
4 years ago
Amen, James...
I agree entirely, James.
And I fully support the right of women to muck up just as badly as men. (Though it has to be said, that we didn't arrive at being the dominant species on the planet, which doesn't mean it will ever be so, by either of us being total gits-, for all the spilled blood.)
But shallow and trite analyses and formulae, either from men or women, certainly doesn't guarantee the continuation of our line.. :-)
As for any of the presidential candidates in the land of the greedy and the home of the brutal, male or female, there's no more a one of their officially sanctioned contenders I would vote for than in this country right now. They are all a part of the problem. (Though I thought John Edwards was perhaps marginally less so, if we are going to split hairs and buy into the ruling class dominant "democratic" system. The latter which I'm not.)
That said, as much as I love the ladies, and I do, I'm still not foolish enough to buy into the self-deceiving illusions of themselves that "some" of them have either. :-)And there's lots of really good women out there, fit to be leaders-, take my friend Lynne for example.)
Mein Gott! I'm getting sick of snow and cold. Spring! I want spring-, the budding of trees, the twitter of birds, new calves romping about the pastures,and the bouquet of the land renewed. :-)
James Burns
4 years ago
Well yes the remaining
Well yes the remaining candidates are unlikely to create the kind of positive change (soon if not already the most over used word of the presidential campaign) I'd like to see. But as I've stated, I think there is no chance of that with McCain (and I think McCain has the Republican nomination wrapped up now) or Clinton. I do think there is a slim chance Obama could nudge things in a positive direction.
As for spring, yeah I hate cold. My friends in Cuba have been complaining about the cold 21 degree Celsius temperatures in Havana due to the cold air coming from Canada... you can imagine my reaction. 21 degrees... geesh.
Canis Latrans
4 years ago
Obama and change...
Hopefully, you will be right about Obama, and I will be wrong. (Which I was once before. :-)
I am just weary and perhaps overly cynical of those who ever trot out the cry of change, plugging into what they know is peoples' desire for it, without ever defining it concretely, in order to sneak into so-called "power". Then in office, whatever their best personal intentions,and for want of cajones/maracas, like our own NDP, because for "the system" to work at all, which they have no intention of really challenging, they need ruling class co-operation. Such that they wind up genuflecting and bending to this ruling class interest and will anyway, like every other personality cult and party that wins the more "official" than "real" political power seats within capitalism. (Real power lies within the economy, in my view.) And in my long observational experience of this process my suspicions are turned on by Obama's (and in this country, the NDP's) vague and undefined calls for "change". It is what tells me that Obama and those around him already understand this, and are already plugged into the game.
Still, it has happened that such folks have by accident more than design, by creating the expectation of change, can inadvertently set off movements toward its actual realization. (In the postwar, Lester Pearson in this country, and Roosevelt in the US. Whose "socialization" of capitalism is now being reversed by the "new", actually very old, forces of neoconazism everywhere.)
Again, like I said though, may it be that you are right, brother. :-)
lynn
4 years ago
Spare Change
I feel the same way about the charisma and the new hope hype surrounding this election as I do when people suggest that a woman becoming CEO of Dow Chemical Company is the definition of success or the meaning of progress. I think not.
Obama and Hilary have been marketed as race and gender Trojan Horses that will bring about real change but these two are not outsiders to the corporate military-industrial complex. They have both been inside the gates of the corporate city for so long.... and successfully so that they will faithfully canter like good little ponies to the war tunes of America the Good's Policy Of Endless War.
Absolutely right on. It's the creation of image, the spin of so-called change that gives the game away. It's all right there, self-evident. Corporate advertising techniques. The language of the sell. Emotive, promising, approaching the religious.... wired with the hype of hope.
If they are speaking corporatism's language, using its ways, where then is the genuinely new or different path?
Instead they have just become very good at appearing the part...which is what John Pilger has written is the real danger of Liberal Democracy now, that it is moving towards a corporate dictatorship in how it fools.
Especially how it fools itself.
Pilger writes that liberalism:
...
And as for the Democrats, look at how Barak Obama has become the voice of the Council on Foreign Relations, one of the propaganda organs of the old liberal Washington establishment. Obama writes that while he wants the troops home, "We must not rule out military force against long-standing adversaries such as Iran and Syria." Listen to this from the liberal Obama: "At moment of great peril in the past century our leaders ensured that America, by deed and by example, led and lifted the world, that we stood and fought for the freedom sought by billions of people beyond their borders."
Real, genuine change? I think not.
Canis Latrans
4 years ago
Excellent...
Excellent analysis, Lynn.
This US election, despite the black and female face it is attempting to put on, like blackface and drag, it is really nothing new. It is still the same old monied ruling class manipulated con game that passes for "official" democracy. The vacuous cry of "Change" has been on the lips of every, in the end,corporate serving politician I have known across my entire life. (And I'm not concerned here with whether or not they actually believed their own crap, and had the best intentions. Some naively did, I'm sure.)
Yes, we do need change, radical and sweeping, but we the people ourselves need to spell it out and define it, and in our mass, create the movement(s) that will be the instrument(s) of its implementation. Otherwise, it is the same old repackaged and recycled "system" bullshite, that keeps leading back to the same old, same old.
It is always reassuring to me to read my friend Lynn. She never fails to see through the smoke and mirrors; the hype and spin. She gets it with breadth and depth. :-)
James Burns
4 years ago
Change, change, change
Of course not genuine change. The idea that in it's current state and power structure the US and its leadership are capable of real change is largely a pipe dream.
As I said, the depth of change possible will really depend on the nature of the coming economic crisis in the US. I think Obama has a remote chance of being better for the US and the world than either McCain or Billary. The latter two will simply maintain the status quo at best, or overstep on the military end, which will lead to a world wide conflagration. I think with Obama there is at least the possibility that in a crisis he will move in a progressive direction. Certainly there is no guarantee of that.
Those who are more pessimistic may wish for a McCain presidency, because it will likely eviscerate what remains of social democracy in the US, as he resorts to free market ideology to solve domestic economic problems, and military stupidity to resolve difficulties in foreign relations. That road will certainly hasten the demise of US influence, but there is also a far greater chance of nuclear war, and the certainty of massive number of civilian casualties as the US likely expands its war in the Middle East. While some in the comfort of their western enclaves may wish a quicker demise of American power, the cost in pain, misery and death to peoples around the world is incalculable. I think it is enormously selfish to simply dismiss all the candidates without taking even what may seem their marginal differences into account. Small degrees can have considerable impact. For example, Gore as president, while no true progressive, almost certainly would not have started the Iraq war. Over 1 million Iraqi lives would have been spared violent deaths. That is in my opinion a significant difference, and frankly I find the lack of acknowledgment on the part of so-called progressives to see the value in such subtle differences repugnant.
I'd rather dwell in unlikely hope, than wallow in cynical certainty. Hence my desire to see an Obama presidency over a McCain or Billary in office. Charisma definitely has its downside if unmatched by good judgment. Does Obama have it? I have no idea, but I do know that what he does have it in at least marginally better quantity than the alternatives, and that will have to be good enough. That of course, doesn't mean I obviate my responsibility to argue for more progressive change, nor that I will speak uncritically of an Obama presidency. Just the opposite in fact. But at least the possibility is there for Obama to make better decisions, where I believe Billary and McCain will not.
ME2
4 years ago
Right on, J Burns
Since the economic analysts I choose to follow suggest that the final economic crunch for the US economy is months - not years - away, we can only watch as Bernanke plays out his last desperate bluffs.
Whoever wins the Nov. election will have to institute "change" alright, but it will not likely be preemptive, it may of necessity be reactive.
Let's hope that they do not resort to a last paroxysmic gasp of War, but instead seek economic remedies. But these may prove unpleasant for the rest of us too (esp. us Canadians), since these may involve forms of protectionism and/or isolationism.
Canis Latrans
4 years ago
And I certainly do hope...
While I am not optimistic, I certainly do share Jame's "hope" for the consequence of an Obama outcome. (Simply his getting elected, for example, will be an important indictor that a racial Rubicon has been crossed within the popular mindset in the United States-, even though nothing else may change at the same time.)
Though more firmly do I agree that what is, and is more so in the future, driving all this is economics-, to which coop their over-population, economic development and resource depletion chickens are certainly coming home to roost. And more important to me, whether Obama, or any foreseeable electoral outcome, actually implements even modest "change" within the US Empire heartland and its relationship with the rest of the world,is that it may serve and/or be an eventual cattle prod catalyst serving to drive further a US populace desire and willingness to take action for real change.
Already in the US, as well as in this country, a major swath of the population does not vote, and thereby has effectively withdrawn its support, with its own particular kind of voting with one's feet, from the official "democratic" system. And over the long haul, I predict, allowing that this withdrawal continues and/or grows, and as what it says is realized by more folks, it has the potential to have an even more dramatic effect upon US and our own politics than the ritual exercise of voting in a phony democratic system.
That said, that is my view, and I do not have any problem with those folks who think there is still something to milk out of this dry cow. All roads lead to Rome from here as is said, or significant social change to put my own spin on it. And I don't think there is any absolute or "pure" right path here. All responses doubtless serve a purpose-, even if to exhaust the illusions of possibility within the system. For until that is done and the teat has been milked to a vacuum, and all are going to have to convince themselves of that of course, little real change in neoconazi capitalism is likely to occur.
And there is more than one persons positional "certainty" in play here. We all take the positions we do because we think, in our best judgement, that we are likely right-, thee and me. :-)
dorothy
4 years ago
We can have an impact, damn it!
“…a major swath of the population does not vote, and thereby has effectively withdrawn its support, with its own particular kind of voting with one's feet, from the official "democratic" system. “
They have made into visible fact, what they think is the reality behind a pretense: that voting makes no damn difference, because even the most well-intentioned candidates, or those who know how to sound that way, will buckle under/throw away the prestense, once they get in there, and pick up the slicing and dicing and shady dealing behind closed doors, which has absolutely nothing to do with what’s best for the people, and everything to do with a small class protecting its own interests in the coming Ragnarok.
Now it could be debated, that by voting, one lends a degree of legitimacy to the whole charade. This is true. At some point, there should be a tipping point, where enough people decide that the pretense is too gross, and the parameters too slanted. But hope dies hard. A lot of people, some of them good people, hold a hope that by the feet-to-the-fire effect, we can have some influence and get things to turn in a ‘better’ direction without the big messy all-out version. I am not claiming to have all the answers, or even a major part of them, but if we want to follow those slicers and dicers home, and truly undermine their construction, we should follow the 100-mile diet, wear second-hand clothes, re-use everything we can, and put our charity money into Planned parenthood. That will prick them. I would love to see a breaktrough in the understanding, that our economy must shrink, inasmuch as our numbers must shrink, if we are to have a healthy and long future on this planet.
Yes, I know Canada holds just a small part of the World’s population, but the World does have its eyes on us. (Warning: gross irony, reader discretion is advised). Here is a link to a letter to the editor in a major Danish Newspaper, the one who published Mohammed-drawings, which praises Canada’s treatment of the Innu population in our northern parts, in comparison to Denmark’s poor showing towards the Greenlanders:
http://jp.dk/arkiv/?id=1174892&eceExpr=canada&eceArchive=o
The advice of the reader is to abolish Greenalnd’s home rule, seeing that our indigenous people have ‘thrived’ as an ‘intergral part of Canadian society, with particular respect paid to their inherited culture’. I don’t know if the author had consulted any Greenlanders on this.
SO, the World is watching Canada. Let us do all the right things, and the World will follow….
Tractorman
4 years ago
Yankee Pollyticks
One of my American friends has made the observation that, in Canada, we elect either left or more left. In the US, politics is blood sport. More and more, it looks like that is quite true.
As far as Hillary Clinton is concerned, she is "blessed" with something that no other candidate will ever be blessed with and that is Bill Clinton. From what I have seen this week, he has done more to sabotage her campaign than her competitors have. Barrack Obama should be sending Bill a new car or something. :)
Tractorman
lynn
4 years ago
to be ... or not to be "likely" right...thanks, Canis.
Wallow? Moi? Never. ;-) ( Well, maybe in the ocean on a hot sunny day.)
Cynical? Only on week-days. ;-)
Certain? Only when I'm not self-delusional.
Okay, I'm being a smart ass. I see your argument, James Burns... I may not agree with it all... but you make it well.
I just see no hope if we keep on pretending.