Carole Taylor is a shoo-in as Vancouver's next mayor no matter who's running on which ticket.

We tend to make the mistake of thinking that municipal elections with civic parties are just like federal or provincial elections. Well, they're not. If we follow that political Lorelei we end up on the rocks of political miscalculations. There are indeed political parties but unlike senior elections, "independents" can and do win. For the mayor's chair the election is often much more about the person rather than the party.

Here's why Carole Taylor will win as an "independent" no matter who runs against her. The Non-Partisan Association (a name that makes one think of "military intelligence") generally appeals to the right of centre while COPE and Vision Vancouver cop the left side's vote.

The overriding fact is that even if all parties nominate mayoral candidates, the contest tends to be person against person. All a party does is supply money but my guess is that a well-heeled independent -- and Carole Taylor is that, we're told -- doesn't need a party.

Power of the 'independent'

I think that Philip Owen, who became popular in his last term, would have had enough appeal on the eastside, the stronghold of the left, to have won as an independent in 2002. It might be said that the eventual victor that year, Larry Campbell, would have been hard to beat, but Campbell made it clear that he wouldn't run against Owen -- not because he liked him but because he was seen as unbeatable.

There is a fundamental rule of Vancouver politics to take into account -- a popular candidate for mayor can win with or without a party because he/she will carry not only the independent vote but people who only vote COPE or Vision to keep the NPA out and vice versa. Even if the NPA were to dump Sullivan and want to nominate Taylor she likely would decline the "honour."

The best example I can recall of a person whose popularity transcended party was Gerry McGeer, still considered the greatest Vancouver mayor of them all. He first was elected mayor in 1935-6 and was credited, too handsomely I think, for easing the Great Depression with public works like the City Hall and the fountain in Lost Lagoon. After 1936 he stayed away from civic politics and served as an MLA, MP and Senator until 1947 when he returned to the city scene and won a landslide for mayor mostly on the basis of a large billboard saying, simply but effectively, "Gerry's Back."

While McGeer did have the backing of the NPA, that hardly mattered. No one in the Non-Partisan Association for one moment thought that McGeer needed their help or anyone else's for that matter.

Taylor's advantages

But why Carole Taylor? There are a number of factors.

She is a woman and a beautiful one. This counts but it's more than that -- Charlotte Whitton of Ottawa was as ugly as a stump yet won on her own terms. (She is famous for saying that "for a woman to succeed she had to be twice as good as a man and, fortunately, that wasn't difficult.")

Taylor is married to former mayor Art Phillips who, despite the Granville Street mall fiasco, is remembered with respect so that Carole and Art can beat out that other marital tag team, Bill and Hillary, as the first elected dynamic duo.

Taylor is remembered as a good independent Vancouver City councillor from 1986 to 1990. That's too long ago for anyone to remember any actual good she did but, more importantly, she left behind no bad memories which, unlike good deeds, tend to linger.

She was a TV star and later chair of the CBC. Again, it doesn't matter if she was any good at either adventure, just that she didn't noticeably screw up. Moreover, her TV stardom gives her a good recognition factor and her CBC career gives off an impression of being an "important person."

Of paramount importance, Taylor has been fortunate to be B.C.'s finance minister in boom times and doubly fortunate that she will avoid the slump that's bound to happen. No matter where you are in the world, being finance minister or the equivalent during good times is a snap. However, the hard political axiom remains -- if the sun shone the day you organized the company picnic, take the credit since, after all, it happened during your administration, didn't it? Taylor will do just that.

Strategic moves

OK, so Carole Taylor is a most presentable candidate. What makes her a shoo-in?

The NPA is stuck with Sam Sullivan who has been a lousy mayor and they can't get rid of him without tearing the guts out of the party. COPE/Vision (assuming they can unite somehow) don't have a barnburner of a candidate in the wings unless, as rumoured, NDP MLA Gregor Robertson is their man (about which more in a moment). This means that Taylor adds disgruntled supporters of both parties to her own considerable following.

But what happens from here to November?

I see Taylor standing aside for another (who'll take the shit when the overheated economy goes into the rubbish bin) and be a devoted MLA for all Vancouver, not just her own constituency. From the backbench she can hassle the government for help for the Cambie Street merchants, and she'll get it. From the backbench she can get more and more involved in civic affairs, freed from all other responsibilities. From the backbench she can get lots of media coverage, especially in community papers.

It will be said, I suppose, that this column is all about shilling for Carole Taylor. I plead innocent. At no point have I said she'll make a good mayor, if only because I don't know what that animal looks like.

I scarcely know the lady, so my comments are not personal but strictly political prognostications.

Besides, I don't live in Vancouver but as my next book, What the Bleep is Going on Here? (due out in March) will say, "Rafe Mair lives in Lions Bay with his lovely wife Wendy and their chocolate Labrador Chauncey" -- and why can't I plug my own book in my own column? And, the saints be praised, Lions Bay is a very long way from Vancouver emotionally as well as physically.

Gregor Robertson has a shot

Now, is there anyone in the shadows who can upset this glitzy victory train?

There is -- I mentioned Gregor Robertson, the flashy, well-to-do neophyte NDP MLA. If he steps in the ring as an independent, he's got a chance of getting in. The problem is, Robertson has been so cozy with the Vision/COPE bunch that it will be tough for him to refuse their endorsement, an endorsement that will cost him support not only from " independents" but from many from both parties who will see Taylor as the best candidate.

Put Carole Taylor, Independent, against Robertson with COPE/Vision and Sullivan with the NPA, and she romps home to City Hall.

So bearing in mind that all races have the potential for a dark horse winner, place your bets, ladies and gentlemen. Next November Carole Taylor will trounce Sam Sullivan and whoever COPE/Vision puts up.

Then we'll see how she does the first time she has to face real challenges all on her own.

Related Tyee stories:

• Carole Taylor's False Alarm
  With scary health spending forecast, she fools news media -- again.
• Taylor's New Recipe for Fudge
  Predecessors fudged deficits. She hid a whopping surplus.
• Carole Taylor's Heavy Load
  B.C. Liberals expected her star appeal to woo women back. But after four years, the gender divide was wide.