If Quebec Goes

Here's a bone to chew on. Quebec has gone from a vassal state to being "maîtres chez nous" to "sovereignty-association" to "distinct society" to appearing in its own name at international conferences as a "nation."

Now what do you suppose the next stage will be?

To enter into some sort of internal treaty with the Rest of Canada (ROC)?

Complete independence?

What we do know is that the sovereigntists (patient separatists) and separatists are winning the day and will be moving the file along. It's just a matter of time and everyone, deep down, knows it.

Should ROC be preparing for this? Is it politically possible to prepare without encouraging Quebec to go? If we are to prepare, how do we go about it?

This is where the Anglo-Canadian establishment comes in, that establishment being almost exclusively in Ontario.

Short history of the establishment

Every group of three or more develops an "establishment." Your church has one. So does your golf club. My village of Lions Bay has one. Vancouver has one. All provinces have one. But in ROC terms only the Ontario establishment really matters and I only call it the Anglo-Canadian establishment because it has some adherents in other parts of the country.

The Ontario establishment goes back to the 19th century Family Compact, which essentially was the establishment. Apart from making money, one other consideration has been the struggle to keep a very difficult association with Quebec intact.

As school kids might remember, the Act of Union passed July 23, 1840 by the British parliament and proclaimed by the Crown on February 10, 1841, merged the two colonies by abolishing the legislatures of Upper and Lower Canada and replacing them with a single legislative assembly. However, the new legislature maintained equal representation from the areas of each of the former colonies.

The failure of this union led to the meetings in Quebec City and Charlottetown in 1864 which morphed into a four province Canada. From that time on, Ontario has seen itself as the "lynchpin of Canada," the beacon of a Canadianism which required that the rest of Anglo-Canada follow their lead.

Ontario's delusions

While immigration has watered down the establishment, it remains a powerful force. It doesn't just consist of Upper Canada College boys, Bishop Strachan girls and Osgoode Hall lawyers and the business community but has added labour leaders, artists, writers and the nouveau riche to its circle.

It has also, sad to say, taken over the media as well. This matters because the Canadian establishment, the rest of Canada outside Quebec, and Quebec itself are on a collision course.

Let's suppose that Quebec, after a referendum, announces its departure in, say, a year's time. This will, in Samuel Johnson's phrase, "concentrate the mind wonderfully." And the very first problem will be to set up a new country where one province, Ontario, has almost half the population.

The people in charge in Ontario will be steeped in the tradition that Ontario is the leader; thus, others must make accommodations in keeping with its views.

It probably will be beyond Ontarians' ability to imagine that everyone in ROC doesn't cheer for the Toronto Maple Leafs and see Bay Street as the only place that can handle the financial affairs of the country. This is no one's fault -- just remember that this "noblesse oblige" is ingrained in the very veins of those who have always seen Upper Canada as having a divine right to rule.

The real map

It's well that we should try to picture a Canada post-Quebec. If oil and gas really do bring Newfoundland and Nova Scotia into the "have provinces" club that will muddy an already muddy political situation. If, however, they are still in thrall to the "have" provinces for equalization payments they will support a Canada run by Ontario and friends, they being the friends. Manitoba and Saskatchewan will be in the same position. That leaves Alberta and British Columbia the odd ones out of any arrangement that lets Ontario dominate it.

The main point is, of course, that it's very dangerous to leave planning until after the event.

If Canadians had a vibrant constitution -- namely one where amendments cannot be vetoed -- then there would be a restoration of the political ferment that accompanied the run up to the 1982 patriation of the Constitution. In those days there were countless meetings and conventions dealing with the issues that then faced the nation. Nowadays there is almost no public debate. Thus, when Quebec takes out its hankie and waves goodbye, we'll have no plan; indeed, no base of educated opinion.

Ready to fall apart?

Without Quebec, I don't regard too highly the remaining Canada's chances of staying intact. While Quebec has caused much angst in ROC, it is she who has maintained a balance of influence in a country industrially dominated by Ontario. For all we have bitched about Quebec, the recipient of our constant generosity, we will find it very hard indeed to stay united without her.

We avoid dealing in advance with this potential catastrophe for much the same reason my late mother-in-law wouldn't buy life insurance -- it's bad luck!

The key question is whether, when Quebec goes, Ontario will show enough statesmanship to surrender its time honoured position of superiority and accept a new form of government that will be sufficiently attractive to the rest to permit the great experiment called Canada.

We've always "muddled through" in the past. That is no reason to believe we always will.

Related Tyee stories:

• Quebec, Angry and Torn
  Pinched voters vent against rich, poor, immigrants and the political class.
• The Quebec Election Effect Reading the impact on the next federal contest.
• Quebec Vote Signals Canada's Split
  How most of the media got it wrong.