How Stars Aligned for Dion

Over the coming days and weeks we may expect more than a few pundits and political operatives to claim that Stephane Dion's fourth-ballot election as leader of the federal Liberal party was entirely predictable, almost pre-ordained. They will point to the antipathy many Liberal delegates felt for the two front-runners, Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae, and describe Dion's come-from-behind triumph as inevitable.

It was no such thing. Dion's victory is attributable to five key events in the space of 16 hours on Friday night and Saturday. Without any or all of these five developments taking place, either Ignatieff or Rae likely would be the newly elected Liberal leader, and Dion would be left to ponder his political future. As it is, Dion now has an opportunity to become Canada's next prime minister.

1. Ignatieff falls short of first-ballot expectations

The initial key development at the leadership convention occurred on Friday night, Dec. 1, when the first-ballot results were counted. To the surprise of many delegates and observers, front-runner Michael Ignatieff emerged with less than 30 per cent of the valid votes. Not only had he failed to meet a key psychological mark, he was well short of pre-convention expectations.

Two months earlier, during the so-called "Super Weekend" of Sept. 29-Oct. 1, Liberals across Canada had elected delegates to attend the convention in Montreal. Each of these delegates, in the first-round of voting at Montreal, was committed to the candidate they had endorsed on Super Weekend. On subsequent ballots, however, all were free to cast their ballots as they chose.

Ignatieff had captured more than 1300 of the 4300 or so Super Weekend delegates (30.2 per cent of the total), which gave him a comfortable ahead of runner-up Bob Rae, who had 881 elected delegates (20.3 per cent).

At Montreal, the elected delegates were augmented by 800 to 900 "ex officio" delegates, which included senators and MPs, riding presidents, former candidates and other party officials. During the course of the nine-month leadership campaign, it often was suggested that perhaps as many as one-third to one-half of these ex officios would vote for Ignatieff at Montreal. Indeed, the pre-convention rumour-mill put the front-runner's share of elected and ex officio delegates as high as 35 per cent of the total first-round ballots.

But Ignatieff finished the first round of voting with just 29.3 per cent. From Super Weekend to the Montreal convention, his vote-total grew by little more than 100, to just over 1,400. The inescapable conclusion is that either a significant number of his elected delegates skipped the convention, or that far fewer than one-third of the ex officio delegates voted in his favour. (Most likely it was a combination of the two.)

In politics, expectations shape perceptions. And Ignatieff, instead of being perceived as the inevitable victor, now was seen as vulnerable. His rival candidates and the voting delegates could openly question whether it would be wise to move to him during subsequent rounds of voting.

2. Two votes put Dion in third place after the first round of voting

The second vital convention development also took place on Friday night, and occurred when Stephane Dion moved from fourth place to third in the field of eight candidates.

The candidates' initial rankings had been set on Super Weekend. Ignatieff and Rae were first and second, respectively, and both held their positions after the first-round of voting in Montreal. While the former's support had slipped to less than 30 per cent, the latter's Super Weekend and first-ballot counts were identical, at 20.3 per cent. Rae's support had neither grown nor shrunk with the inclusion of the ex officio delegates.

Gerard Kennedy was third after Super Weekend with 17.3 per cent, just 130 delegates behind Rae. He appeared to be well positioned to make a serious bid for the leadership should either of the two front-runners stumble. Dion was fourth with 16 per cent.

On Friday night in Montreal, both Kennedy and Dion enhanced their delegate totals and vote shares. Kennedy picked up more than 100 votes for a new total of 854, which lifted him to 17.7 per cent.

But Dion did even better, adding 162 delegates to his Super Weekend total of 694. Indeed, his first-ballot increase was the largest of any of the candidates: Ignatieff and Kennedy each added 103; Rae moved up by 96. Between Super Weekend and the first-ballot round in Montreal, Dion's share of delegates had climbed from 16 per cent to 17.8 per cent.

He now had 856 votes, two more than Kennedy, and was in third place. Importantly, he had momentum, and was well positioned to receive endorsements (and delegates) from those candidates who dropped-off or withdrew their names after the initial round of voting.

3. Ex-Tory Brison rejects Ignatieff to endorse former NDP premier Rae

Early Saturday morning, prior to the second round of voting, the third key development in Dion's victory took place after Scott Brison withdrew from the contest. Brison was the second hopeful to quit voluntarily following the first ballot; Joe Volpe had done so on Friday night. (Martha Hall Findlay's name was automatically removed after she finished last on the first ballot.)

A former Progressive Conservative MP (and one-time leadership candidate for that party), Brison had joined the Liberals after the PCs merged with the Canadian Alliance and Stephen Harper was elected leader of the newly-formed Conservative Party. He was seen as philosophically aligned with Ignatieff, which led some to believe that he might move his Atlantic-Canadian and centre-right supporters to the front-runner if his own candidacy faltered.

But after quitting the race, Brison passed over Ignatieff and instead made a surprising move to Bob Rae. The ex-Tory seemed to have little trouble crossing the ideological divide to support the former NDP premier of Ontario.

Brison's decision before Saturday's balloting got underway was an ill omen for Ignatieff; it was a signal that his candidacy had stalled, perhaps fatally. Despite receiving numerous endorsements from MPs, senators and other party heavyweights during the course of the campaign, Ignatieff proved spectacularly unsuccessful in attracting any of his leadership rivals once the voting began.

(Only after Rae had been knocked out of contention on the third ballot did Brison belatedly move to Ignatieff; by then, of course, it was too late to make a difference.)

4. Martha moves to Dion

The fourth key move was by Martha Hall Findlay, the sole female on the ballot in Montreal. She was the only candidate never to have won election either to the House of Commons or a provincial legislature, and while she was widely viewed as bright and well spoken, her lack of political experience indicated that she had little chance of winning the Liberal leadership. On Super Weekend, she had captured a mere 38 delegates.

But her first-round count at Montreal was 130 -- an increase of 92 delegates over her Super Weekend total. That gain compared favourably to those of the leading candidates: Ignatieff and Kennedy each had picked up 103, while Rae gained 96. It was obvious that a large number of ex officio delegates -- many of whom likely had defected from Ignatieff -- opted to park their first-round ballots with Hall Findlay while they waited for a sense of which direction the convention would go.

As expected, Hall Findlay finished last on Friday night's tally, and so her name was automatically taken off the ballot before the second round. Early Saturday morning, she telephoned Dion to endorse his candidacy, and subsequently went to his camp at the convention hall before voting got underway.

Her move was the second signal of Dion's growing momentum. On Friday night he had climbed from fourth place to third; now, on Saturday morning, he was one of just two candidates to obtain the endorsement of a campaign rival. (The other was Rae, who welcomed Volpe and Brison.)

Perhaps more importantly, Hall Findlay seems to have had considerable success in taking her delegates over to the eventual winner. Whereas she had 130 votes in the first-round of voting, Dion's growth on the second ballot was by almost that same amount, 118. By comparison, whereas Volpe and Brison had a combined first-round total of 348 votes, Rae's vote-total from the first to second rounds after their endorsements increased by less than half of that amount, 155.

Hall Findlay may have taken as many as 90 per cent of her supporters to Dion for the second round of voting, whereas Volpe and Brison took no more than 45 per cent of theirs to Rae.

5. Kennedy quits after 2nd ballot to endorse Dion

The fifth and last decisive moment at the Liberal convention was Gerard Kennedy's withdrawal after the second ballot, and subsequent endorsement of Dion. As Hall Findlay had done earlier, Kennedy took about 90 per cent of his delegates with him across the floor to the winner, and the move vaulted Dion from third place to first on the third round of voting, followed by victory on the fourth.

The second-ballot count had seen Ignatieff in front with 1,481 votes, followed by Rae at 1,132, and Dion with 974. Kennedy held fourth place with 884, while Ken Dryden was last with 239. Dryden was automatically taken off the ballot and he opted to endorse Rae; for an instant it seemed that Rae had sufficient momentum for victory. Kennedy then made his historic move to Dion.

Many Liberals subsequently criticized Kennedy for dropping out when he could have remained on the ballot for the third round of voting. But he had slipped from third-place on Super Weekend, to fourth on two ballots at the convention, and his vote-share throughout had remained nearly static at 17.3 per cent, 17.7 per cent and 18.8 per cent. With no credible prospects for growth, it was certain that he would be dropped after the third ballot. So, he withdrew and played kingmaker by moving to Dion.

Dion's vote-count on the third ballot, with the bulk of Kennedy's supporters in his corner, nearly doubled to 1,782. He now was in first place, more than 100 votes ahead of Ignatieff, and 400 in front of Rae. After the latter was automatically removed prior to the fourth ballot, Dion scored a comfortable 500-vote victory over the former front-runner.

The vagaries, in summary

Dion's bid for the Liberal party leadership likely would have been derailed if any of these five decisive events had not taken place. Certainly Ignatieff would have been a more formidable opponent if he had surpassed the 30 per cent mark on the first ballot, but he failed to do so. Ignatieff also would have had valuable momentum if Brison had been wooed to his camp before the second ballot, but the Nova Scotian instead went to Rae.

If Kennedy had retained his third-place position (from Super Weekend) on the first ballot, a fourth-place Dion would have faced a significant barrier in moving forward on subsequent rounds. It also seems unlikely that Hall Findlay would have endorsed a fourth-place Dion prior to the second ballot on Saturday morning; probably she would have gone elsewhere and he may well have stalled behind Kennedy.

Moreover, consider what would have transpired if Hall Findlay and Kennedy, after quitting the contest, had either kept their own counsel, or released their supporters, or not personally moved to the Dion camp. It is extremely unlikely that 90% or so of their supporters would have gone directly to Dion, as they did following the two endorsements.

Such are the vagaries of politics. For a period of 16 hours or so this past weekend, the stars were perfectly aligned for Stephane Dion, and five key convention moments helped him to record one of the most remarkable come-from-behind leadership victories in Canadian history.