McMartin Gives BC Libs 51 Seats
Tyee analyst finalizes his projections, invites readers to bet against him.
Strong Liberal vote predicted
[Editor’s note: This is the final installment of Battleground BC, The Tyee’s exclusive seat projections feature. Think Will’s got it wrong? Send your own prognostication to The Tyee and you may win a prize. To find out how, click here.]
Nearly eight weeks ago, Battleground BC began a series of daily articles analyzing the province’s 79 electoral districts. The intent was to provide Tyee readers with a different and (it was hoped) useful study of voting history, demographics, polls and other factors to help identify those ridings which on May 17 are likely to elect a Liberal MLA, and those likely to return a New Democratic Party representative.
At the beginning, Battleground BC introduced a 13-region model of the province’s 79 electoral districts. Most studies (and nearly all pollsters) show the province as having just three geographic areas: the Lower Mainland, Vancouver Island, and the Interior. Yet every student of B.C. politics knows that the west- and east-side of Vancouver have very different voting patterns, as do north and south Surrey, the Kootenays and the Okanagan, and the northcoast and Peace River country.
Battleground BC attempted to capture these discrepancies by re-configuring the 79 ridings according to geographic proximity and electoral history. Our model has five regions which usually return ‘right-of-centre’ representatives; six that have favoured ‘left-of-centre’ MLAs; and two ‘indeterminate’ regions where no clear pattern is evident.
Battleground BC also looked at various factors making the 79 electoral districts — which are supposed to be ‘equal’ (at least in terms of population) — very different, one from another. These factors may reveal why individual ridings have their own unique electoral histories, or voting patterns. Consider:
* the province’s largest riding, Vancouver-Burrard, is home to more than 64,000 people, but North Coast has fewer than 28,000 residents.
* in Prince George North, just 5.4% of local residents are 65 years of age or older, compared to Penticton-Okanagan Valley where the figure is 25.1%. (The provincial average is 13.6%.)
* the average price of an owner-occupied home in Vancouver-Quilchena is $566,682, but in North Coast the comparable figure is a mere $94,538.
* in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, 77% of homes are rented by their occupants; in Okanagan-Westside, just 15% of residents are renters.
* in Vancouver-Quilchena, average household incomes exceed $123,000 annually, while in Vancouver-Mount Pleasant the average is under $43,000.
These and other data are useful in studying voter behaviour. For example, people who own their own homes are more likely, on average, to participate in elections than those who rent their accommodation. As well, a greater proportion of seniors usually exercise their franchise compared to young voters.
Income and other demographics
Income may be key in studying B.C. elections. Over the past six decades, many provincial tilts have been ‘polarized’ between a centre-right party promising to cut taxes and reduce the size and scope of government, and a centre-left party advocating income redistribution and an activist government. Generally, those with higher-than-average incomes prefer the former, while voters with lower-than-average incomes support the latter.
These and other demographic factors, along with historic election results, were used to ‘rank’ or ‘order’ the electoral districts in each of Battleground BC’s 13-regions. The ridings then were categorized as ‘likely’ or ‘solid’ choices to elect either a Liberal or New Democratic Party MLA, or placed in the ‘up-for-grabs’ column.
Once the campaign got underway on April 19, additional input was sought so as to re-designate the ridings, shifting those in the ‘up-for-grabs’ column to ‘likely’ for one party or another, or from ‘likely’ to ‘solid.’ Those factors included public opinion polls, local intelligence provided from regional newspaper editors and reporters, experienced political observers, and input from Tyee readers. (Thank you!)
Six province-wide polls — two each by The Mustel Group, Ipsos-Reid and Strategic Counsel — have been published since the election got under way. They have been remarkably consistent, showing the Liberals with support from 45-49% of the B.C. electorate, the NDP at 36-40%, and the Greens at 10-13%.
The numbers for the two major parties should rise on May 17. That is because the 55 Liberal MLAs seeking re-election probably will receive a ‘bump-up’ due to their name recognition and familiarity to local voters, factors which are difficult to capture in province-wide polls. The New Democrats ought to benefit from a decline in Green support, as at least a few poll respondents who expressed support for the Greens instead may be expected, in the privacy of the voting booth, to cast their ballot for the NDP. Finally, both major parties will receive an increased vote-share if, as many pundits believe, Green supporters (a large number of whom are young) fail to exercise their franchise.
The final vote-shares, therefore, should see the Liberals with about 50% of valid votes cast; the New Democrats with about 40%; and all other minor parties and independents combining for ten percent or so. In other words, B.C.’s 2005 general election ought to be very similar to previous ‘polarized’ general elections in 1945, 1949, 1975, 1979, 1983 and 1986. Discussions with observers from across the province reveal many close contests, which makes it difficult to forecast the outcomes of a half-dozen or so ridings with any degree of confidence. Much depends on the popularity (or lack thereof) of individual candidates, the enthusiasm of E-day volunteers, local or regional issues, and possibly even the weather.
Still, Battleground BC was launched to make a final seat estimate before May 17, and to invite Tyee readers to participate in the process. So, with no small measure of trepidation, let’s get started.
‘RIGHT-OF-CENTRE’ REGIONS — Liberals, 25; NDP, 0
In general elections since 1969, 93% of the available seats in these five regions have been won by centre-right parties. In 2005, Battleground BC sees 23 ‘solid’ and two ‘likely’ seats for the Liberals, for a total of 25.
* Fraser Valley South (9 seats) — Abbotsford-Mount Lehman, Abbotsford-Clayburn, Chilliwack-Kent, Chilliwack-Sumas, Delta South, Fort Langley-Aldergrove, Langley, Surrey-Cloverdale and Surrey-White Rock are ‘solid’ for the Liberals.
* The Okanagan (5 seats) — Kelowna-Lake Country, Kelowna-Mission, Okanagan-Vernon, Okanagan-Westside and Penticton-Okanagan Valley are ‘solid’ for the Liberals.
* Vancouver-Westside (4 seats) — Vancouver-Langara, Vancouver-Point Grey and Vancouver-Quilchena are ‘solid’ for the Liberals. Vancouver-Fairview, where two high-profile newcomers — Liberal Virginia Greene and New Democrat Gregor Robertson — have had a hard-fought contest, is considered ‘likely’ to elect Greene.
* North Shore (4 seats) — North Vancouver-Seymour, West Vancouver-Capilano and West Vancouver-Garibaldi are ‘solid’ for the Liberals. North Vancouver-Lonsdale is ‘likely’ to return Liberal MLA Katherine Whittred, a mediocre junior minister dropped from cabinet, but New Democrat Craig Keating, a popular municipal councillor, could make it closer than many expect.
* Richmond (3 seats) — Richmond Centre, Richmond East and Richmond-Steveston are ‘solid’ for the Liberals.
‘LEFT-OF-CENTRE’ REGIONS — Liberals, 14; NDP, 26
The New Democratic Party has captured 63.5% — nearly two of every three — of the seats in these six regions in general elections dating back to 1969. For 2005, Battleground BC has calculated 14 ‘solid’ and 12 ‘likely’ for a total of 26 seats for the NDP, with five ‘solid’ and nine ‘likely’ for 14 seats for the Liberals.
Fraser North (10 seats) — The region is a key battleground, and all 10 ridings could go either way. Battleground BC sees a five-five split in seats, but more than any other, this region could significantly change the seat-totals for the two major parties. For the New Democrats, New Westminster is ‘solid,’ while Burnaby-Edmonds, Burnaby North, Burnaby-Willingdon and Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain are ‘likely.’
Initially, Coquitlam-Maillardville was in the ‘likely’ NDP column, primarily because of historic election results, but it now has been moved to ‘likely’ Liberal. The battle pits Liberal incumbent Richard Stewart against New Democrat Diane Thorne, a high-profile municipal councillor.
Port Moody-Westwood is ‘solid’ for the Liberals, with Burquitlam, Coquitlam-Mallairdville, Maple Ridge-Mission, and Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows considered ‘likely.’
* Vancouver Island South (7 seats) — Esquimalt-Metchosin, Malahat-Juan de Fuca, Victoria-Beacon Hill and Victoria-Hillside are ‘solid’ for the New Democratic Party. Saanich South, where Liberal cabinet minister Susan Brice is battling New Democrat David Cubberley, is a ‘likely’ gain for the NDP. Both Oak Bay-Gordon Head and Saanich North and the Islands are considered ‘solid’ for the Liberals, but New Democrats are hoping for an upset in the former, and the Greens will have a good showing in the latter.
* Vancouver Island North-Coast (7 seats) — Just one seat in this region, Nanaimo, is viewed as ‘solid’ for the New Democrats
Four more — Alberni-Qualicum, Cowichan-Ladysmith, North Island and Powell River-Sunshine Coast — are considered ‘likely’ to return NDP MLAs. The first three should be closer-than-expected when the ballots are counted, and the last is a tight, three-cornered contest featuring Green leader Adriane Carr, Liberal Maureen Clayton, and New Democrat Nicholas Simons.
Comox Valley and Nanaimo-Parksville are ‘likely’ to elect Liberal MLAs. The former seat has incumbent Stan Hagen fighting for his political life; an upset would not be unexpected.
* Vancouver Eastside (6 seats) —Vancouver-Hastings, Vancouver-Kensington, Vancouver-Kingsway, and Vancouver-Mount Pleasant are ‘solid’ for the New Democrats. Vancouver-Burrard, where former NDP MLA Tim Stephenson is attempting a comeback against Liberal Lorne Mayencourt, is ‘likely’ to return the New Democrat. Vancouver-Fraserview, a ‘swing’ seat over recent decades, is ‘likely’ to elect Liberal newcomer Wally Oppal, a former justice with the B.C. Court of Appeal.
* North-Central Surrey (6 seats) — Surrey-Green Timbers and Surrey-Whalley are ‘solid’ and Surrey-Newton is ‘likely’ to return NDP MLAs.
Surrey-Tynehead is viewed as ‘solid’ for the Liberals, and Delta North and Surrey-Panorama Ridge — the latter won by the NDP in a by-election last fall — are ‘likely’ Liberal wins.
Kootenays (4 seats) — Nelson-Creston and West Kootenay-Boundary are ‘solid,’ and Columbia River-Revelstoke is ‘likely,’ for the New Democrats.
East Kootenay is ‘solid’ for Liberal MLA Bill Bennett.
‘INDETERMINATE’ REGIONS — Liberals, 12; NDP, 2
Over the past nine general elections dating back to 1969, centre-right parties have won 65% of the available seats in this region, and the NDP has captured 35%.
In the days following the May 17 general election, New Democrats may look to the North and Thompson-Coquihalla and say: "what went wrong?" Gordon Campbell’s broken promise not to "sell or privatize" BC Rail, the closure of dozens of hospitals, schools and forest offices, and rural alienation in the ‘heartlands,’ should have made these regions fertile territory for the NDP. Local observers suggest that the New Democratic Party has fallen well short of its early objectives.
Battleground BC forecasts the Liberals have seven ‘solid’ and five ‘likely’ seats for a total of 12 in these two regions, while the New Democrats have one ‘solid’ and one ‘likely’ for a total of two. * North (10 seats) — Cariboo North, Cariboo South, Peace River North and Peace River South are listed as ‘solid’ for the Liberals. Cariboo South MLA Walt Cobb’s performance on the campaign trail has proved to be similar to his contribution in the legislature — that is, sadly laughable — but local voters probably will choose the party instead of the man.
Prince George North, Prince George-Omineca and Skeena were placed in the ‘likely’ Liberal column during the campaign, and appear to have firmed-up in recent days — in large part due to timely announcements of new or expanded sawmills near Terrace, Prince George and Quesnel. Bulkley Valley-Stikine and Prince George-Mount Robson now have been shifted from ‘up-for-grabs’ to ‘likely’ for the Liberals, although NDP wins in either of the two would not surprise.
Just one riding, North Coast (which centres on Prince Rupert and includes the Queen Charlotte Islands), is viewed as ‘solid’ for the New Democrats.
* Thompson-Coquihalla (4 seats) — Kamloops and Shuswap are viewed as ‘solid,’ and Kamloops-North Thompson is ‘likely’ for the Liberals. The outcome in the latter seat will be very close, and given the level of voter antipathy for Liberal MLA Kevin Krueger, it is possible he could lose to the NDP’s Mike Hanson.
Yale-Lillooet, where Liberal MLA Dave Chutter retired after a single term, has been placed in the ‘likely’ NDP column. Former New Democratic Party MLA Harry Lali probably will prevail over Liberal Lloyd Forman. To conclude, Battleground BC sees the Liberals with 35 ‘solid’ and 16 ‘likely’ seats, for a total of 51; and the New Democrats with 15 ‘solid’ and 13 ‘likely’ for a total of 28.
At least five races bear close watching on May 17: Bulkley Valley-Stikine, where Liberal MLA Dennis MacKay and New Democrat Doug Donaldson are in a very tight battle; Burnaby-Edmonds, as Liberal MLA Patty Sahota is making a spirited effort to retain her left-leaning seat; Coquitlam-Maillardville, a former NDP fortress which easily could revert to the New Democrats; and Kamloops-North Thompson and Saanich South, both of which feature solid NDP newcomers.
One final point. In 1979, NDP newcomer Al Passarell defeated Atlin MLA Frank Calder, a former New Democrat who had joined Social Credit, by one vote -- 750 to 749. Legend has it that Calder, confident of victory and reluctant to make the arduous journey to his constituency in northern B.C., remained with his wife in Victoria on election day. Together, their two votes would have returned Calder to the legislature, but the loss marked the end of his political career. Every vote counts! Good luck to all.
Will McMartin, a regular columnist for The Tyee, also offers his analysis on the CBC and has consulted for various political parties. ![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
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billy
6 years ago
Comments on "McMartin Gives BC Libs 51 Seats"
NDP: 31, Libs 48
Reggin
6 years ago
I am betting McMartin is way off the mark on the NDP because he has used too many complicating factors.
The NDP received approx. 20% in the last election and are now at approx. 40% in most polls all at the expense of the Liberals.
If you go through riding by riding and give the NDP back that 20% then they get about 37 seats to the Liberals 30 with 12 a saw off.
If you split the saw off seats the 43 to 36 for the NDP and IF the Green vote does not carry-(shades of Surrey Panorama) then a much bigger NDP majority???
Read em and weep?? or??
Chris H
6 years ago
I'm hoping for a little better than McMartin predicts.
Again, my prediction:
Liberals 47
NDP 32
Green 0
Indy Jones
6 years ago
Reggin, I hope you're correct. I want the NDP to thrash the Liberals too, but I feel it in my bones that the election will be Liberals 53, NDP 26 and the Greens zip. The pro-Liberal media propaganda is too pervasive and the general public is too easily manipulated for there to be a reasonable outcome in this election. Also, I think that the Greens will siphon off critical NDP votes.
tommymoore
6 years ago
NDP: 43 Liberals : 36 This is my final answer. And those a%#holes are calling us pessimistic! NO DRUNK PREMIERS! NO SOUP FOR HIM!
Little John
6 years ago
I have it on good authority to suggest that it will be 50 liberal and 29 new dippers. I agree with most of what he says but for different reasons. We are into Deja-vu all over again.
[B]96 we had a split on the right which divide the usual 1/3 2/3 split.
This time we have Gord-o pumping up the Carr-ites and her greens every chance he gets.[/B] Everyone knows they are a rump party and couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery.
sail_junkie
6 years ago
tommymoore, while I would love to see Emperor Gord get his comeuppance, you are living in dreamland.
Try Libs 46, NDP 33. Then watch the knives come out for Gordo!
sirjohna
6 years ago
i'm looking forward to seeing who gets blamed the most for the ndp's crushing defeat.
will it be the greens, big business, canwest, capitalism, brownshirts, nazis, glen clark, or just a lack of creativity, innovation, pragmatism and realism?
allan
6 years ago
sirjohna, I suspect it will be the wads of unreported time and money that really ought to be blamed.
Who do you think will do the nasty deed to Gordo when the backroom guys realize he is little more than an anchor as they look toward 2009.
I'm predicting Olympic cost overruns and scandels with contracts will be the issue come that time.
The public will be told to tighten their belts because the spectacular event that is about to unfold will bring unsurpassed wealth and presperity.
The reality will be so disappointing for most of us, but some people will get rich and decide to give political donations once again.
clmagill
6 years ago
I'm going way hi for Libs not because I want to, but because I think the Green's will split more than others give them credit for. This will matter in many "likley NDP" ridings like the Burnaby's, the North Island, North Coast etc.
17 NDP, 62 Libs.
I Say
6 years ago
60 - 19 for the Liberals. And Carol James loses to Jeff Bray- again!!.
I Say
6 years ago
oh yea sja- Who gets blamed? I betting its the brownshirts.
I Say
6 years ago
But thats because no one on the other side wants to accept that their class warfare arguments are tired wornout cliches. Some people just can't accept that "the wall" has come down and that the global "workers utopia" has failed time and again.
lynn
6 years ago
NDP: 77 Libs: 2 ( There is a God.)
I Say
6 years ago
got a big fat one lit up again lynn? I think you are dizzy stoned.
I Say
6 years ago
and tommymoore is zonked on crack. hahaha
lynn
6 years ago
I never inhale.
Jeeves
6 years ago
I think Little John has the most realistic prediction of 50-29.
30 or over will be a victory for the NDP. That many seats being lost will be an indication of the sodomy that Campbell has performed on the un-beautiful.
It's a sad state of affairs. Mugshot Gord is backed by money, mainstream media and his mistress. So many people are influenced by the Canwest media whores that one almost gives up hope.
Gordon Campbell is a convicted criminal. He is a liar. He is an adulterer (notice Nance is never around?) and a prick.
Vote for anyone but that piece of turd.
Frank
6 years ago
Blame? Same reason there are people who believe in little green men. Many Libs prefer fairy tales to cold reality.
I predict that the Libs and CanWest will blame the economic problems of 2009 on Glen Clark. Just as for decades afterwards Roman mothers used to tell their kids "Hannibal Ad Portas".
The salmon are gone? I predict Michael Campbell will blame it on Glen Clark and fast ferries.
The Olympic hangover? Fazil Mihlar will blame Glen Clark for starting the whole thing and he will then tell us that therefore he was against the whole idea from the beginning.
Higher interest rates and lower transfer payments? Jock Finlayson will blame the teachers, unions and a vast left-wing conspiracy centred in a Moscow suburb.
Record levels of personal bankruptcy? The Fraser Institute will blame a culture of leisure, the NDP and the Feds.
I'm looking forward to four more years of economic malaise and CanWest cheerleading. Its too bad a lot of people will feel the wolves at their door just to provide me with a few laughs as I eat my morning waffles.
dkom
6 years ago
While I would prefer an NDP win, I generally agree with McMartin's predictions with two exceptions. I believe that Vancouver-Fairview and Kamloops North Thompson will both go NDP hence giving the NDP 30 seats and the Liberals 49.
jazz
6 years ago
I believe someting unpredictable is about to happen. There will be a major contribution from the "undecided". Anything is possible.
Don't accept a Liberal victory. It's close - I can feel it.
sdgreen
6 years ago
Seems to me that McMartins guess is very similar to that of the Globe and Mail.
So there you go. The Unions have not gained too much and the negative rants of the NDP have not done them too well.
Would have been nice to see morre substance to the NDP platform.
Perhaps a new 'Labour Party' is in order. Sounds like Carole James wants to boot the Unions out of the NDP in any event.
verso
6 years ago
i'm looking forward to seeing who gets blamed the most for the ndp's crushing defeat.
I'm looking forward to an opposition, finally with some numbers and resources, hold the Liberals to account. It will take four more years, but the Liberals will go down. Who knows, we may even get to see Campbell in the leg having to answer for his government and it's policies. Should be fun.
verso
6 years ago
So there you go. The Unions have not gained too much and the negative rants of the NDP have not done them too well.
The NDP have done very well this election, by all accounts. This is a party that has gone from 2 seats, just 4 years ago, to somewhere between 20 and 30 seats. It's a party that became a contender and had the arrogant Liberals running scared. After election, I think you will find it's the liberals who will be doing the hand-wringing, not the NDP. That, in my book, is a win.
Gary
6 years ago
Will has done a good job on his Battleground but I think he has forgotten about the outrage of the students and the seniors. And I think with the regular people of this province. I'm going to bet on a squeeker.
NDP 40
Fib 39
But the only poll that will tell is being done tomorrow.
Truman Green
6 years ago
NDP will squeak by with 41 seats to liberals 37, Carr might get in. Lynn, there is a god but it's busy now overseeing the rapes and murders in Darfur and other atrocities.
jtothemfk
6 years ago
Libelers: 57
NDP: 22
I'm crying but I'm going for the book.
crazyfrazy
6 years ago
I have to be optimistic and think that younger people who often in the past have not registered to vote, will do so this time, and their votes will make a difference. Seniors, union members, and younger people most affected by Gordo's mean spirited policies will make a difference in this election. I see Gordo getting 40, NDP getting 39 and it being a good battle in the legistature with Gordo's hands effectively tied. (For the next two days I am wearing my "U are crazy if you vote for Campbell" t-shirt!)Keep up the fight!
kurt
6 years ago
49 libs, 29 ndp, 1 green.
redrivergirl
6 years ago
What would hapapen if it were tied?
Also, does anyone remember if it is a 24 publication ban on TV and radio about the election?
Finally, I am still optimistic that the average voter will kick the Libs to the curb recognizing we have swung ridiculously right. But, I will say for sure, that the NDP will not take less than 33.
Apparently, the green vote is disappearing. Which is understandable cosidering the position the province is in right now.
I think Paul Nettleton will win an independent seat.
Gary
6 years ago
redrivergirl, I think a tie would be 38 to 38 leaving 1 extra seat. If Carr wins hers she is the Queen (king) maker. my bet is she woul go with the NDP in that situation I'm not so sure about Nettleton.
The ban would be in BC so no one in the rest of the country would know the final results until we do.
redrivergirl
6 years ago
Thanks for the clarificaton, Gary.
Hmm. I was thinking about the 'cooling off' ban that used to be in place. I was wondering if it still is and if it's for 24 hours. It used to be againt the law to advertise etc for that time to give people a chance to relax and reflect.
verso
6 years ago
32 ndp
47 lib
DowntownBrown
6 years ago
Well, I have a "funny feeling" like some of the other contributors here, but mine leads me to:
70 Liberals 9 NDP
However, there are a bunch of up-in-the-air ridings, so it might be as off as:
64 Liberals 15 NDP
May I also add my voice to those who suggest that we should be more temperate in our comments. Just because we disagree with each other politically doesn't mean we have to descend to the level of personal comments such as "adulterer" and "turd". Or at least we don't once we leave junior high school.
Vote early and vote often!
tommymoore
6 years ago
Campbell's dalliance with Lara Dauphinee is well-known, and only adds to his reputation - liar, adulterer, and drunk driver - all the attributes (apparently) canwest likes in a candidate. Lara's expense chit btw, was one of the highest in cabinet. She and Gordo were partyin' down over in Maui at Fred's house, or didncha know 'bout that?
Frank
6 years ago
Downtown, I agree with you but only as regards how we treat each other. I think the politicos are fair game.
StandupforBC
6 years ago
Yes I heard about Lara but it was all hushed up by the media. Nary a word came out except..something mentioned about a woman passenger present in the car the night he was stopped for drunken driving in Maui. Meanwhile, back at the ranch..his wife had gone home to BC a couple days prior to that episode. Go figure...
Jeeves
6 years ago
Downtown:
I don't insult the posters here, my only slurs are reserved for that aldulterer turd named Campbell. Sorry, you're leader isn't a prince. I don't need to repeat his pitiful attributes or his malicious transgressions.
Truman Green
6 years ago
Reggin got it right, but why all the phony names? What a pack of fraidy cats!
sdgreen
6 years ago
Well it looks like a BC Liberal landslide! NDP somewhere around 25 and the Libs in the mid 50s, Maybe i green.
No doubt about it, the NDP are back in the backwash of the political world. Carole James has waged a terrible election, the NDP platform is flat and without any sense of direction. Me thinks that James is just a puppet until someone with more moxey comes along.
Maybe it is time for a Labour Party!!!
Frank
6 years ago
Interesting, somewhere between 5 and 8% more of a population of 4 million favours one party over another and yet that 2nd party is referred to as being lost and irrelevant. Even though the 1st party is has just under 50% overall itself.
Methinks those that want to write off the NDP, if they lose a 2nd election, are simply voicing their own wishes. Their lack of both analysis and historical knowledge to back up what they say in the face of what is a pretty close race shows their point of view can be discounted without skipping a beat.
tommymoore
6 years ago
Lara Dauphinee, DUI in Maui, lies, censor this post, and leave sirjohna's rabid repeat slurs.
sirjohna
6 years ago
red drivel girl; you're slowly inching your way up to the top of the list for 'best blather award'. keep on truckin'.
I Say
6 years ago
Yes sdgreen it is definately time for a labour party. I suggest that they limit membership to current and past members of the province's arrogant, beligerent and irrelevant public sector unions. I suggest that they would get fewer votes than their combined membership. And I bet that the leftovers in the NDP would poll better than they do in this election. A party for all of the people of the province, not just big public labour- now there is a novel idea. I could possibly even vote for it. Naw ... just having a moment of weakness. Bury them all... Gone and best forgotten.
BLONDE PITBULL
6 years ago
Sirj, please no!! I couldn't continue to live if I didn't get your coveted prize!!!!!!
sirjohna
6 years ago
maybe we should all meet somewhere for the presentation.
Frank
6 years ago
Count me in
BLONDE PITBULL
6 years ago
Truman, I actually used my real name on the canwest "sound offs" and found myself receiving lots of "weird looks" from people on the "food chain" who'd normally never look twice...So when I signed on here I took a pet name my sweety uses(ya, I know, but it is a compliment the way he means it )....now I comfortable with the site but I'm unable to change the handle...
BLONDE PITBULL
6 years ago
The "food chain" of my work, that is....
BLONDE PITBULL
6 years ago
My schedule is quite flexible these days, sirj, and you can thank GC/CH and all for it...so I'm game, too....
Fii
6 years ago
Someone bring a fatty, then; we're probably going to need it- I'll bring a 2-4 for the premier/ soon to be ex-premier?? (as in a case of beer- Ontario style.) May 2-4 coming up and all, he may want to get a running start on the festivites :)-
Bob Rogers
6 years ago
I would love to see a Lib 39, NDP 39, Gr 1. Wishfull thinking.
My guess is Lib 50, NDP 28, Gr 1. The greens stand a good chance in Saanich North and the Gulf Islands. If the southern border of the riding was moved north by a kilometer it would be a slam-dunk for the Greens.
I am also hoping for a yes on STV but it has been badly represented and people see only minority gov's as a result. My bet on STV is NO.
Bailey
6 years ago
Well, the polls open pretty soon now. Let's all try and remember not to vote for anybody who lies to you regularly, or is likely to trash your Aunt Edna's job.
Coyote
6 years ago
At the top of my Wish List too.
Jeeves
6 years ago
Question:
Even if you spoort a Liberal govt, and it's a slam dunk, isn't it in everyones interest to vote for a healthier opposition - regardless of political stripes?
Regardless of your allegiance, if you know that party is going to win, you would think that most would agree to have more voices to keep you more "honest, open and acoountable".
Just a thought.
Well it's finally here. All we can do is cast a vote. I would like to thank the Tyee for being a true media source for all to tap into. So nice to see an outlet that isn't corrupted by the Crapwest media whores. Kudos to the Tyee.
I enjoyed the banter and even enjoyed some of the bent comments from the likes of sirjohna, Ron Mexico and a few others. A healthy democracy promotes a healthier government.
The only crackpot that should be muzzled is that lunatic Jean Bisset. Not sure if he/she is a man or woman but he/she is without question, the most idiotic poster in Tyee's history. I can only hope that the golden decade Nets Binette one of those $6/hr jobs that I've heard will result from another Campbell government and in turn, keep Binette occupied.
There is also specuation that Binette is really David Basi with a lot of extra time on his/her hands.
Get out and vote! Anyone but Campbell! Vote strategically.
I Say
6 years ago
I'm more interested in voting for someone who isn't going to trash my client's jobs.... Lib 59 NDP 20 (+/- 2).... but do get out and vote.
Anne
6 years ago
I predict that the Liberals will win because the average intelligence of people is, apparently, not very high, and because the public has been brain-washed to believe "left wing=evil". I think the N.D.P. will form a strong opposition, but it won't be strong enough to protect us from the horrific violence that the Liberals will do if they get another term. If the N.D.P. DOES get in, I predict they won't reverse nearly enough of the bad Liberal stuff. (I liked the N.D.P. more when they were in opposition than when they were in government.) I predict 0 Green seats except, possibly, for Adriane Carr on the Sunshine Coast, since Nicholas Simons comes across far weaker than she does.
And sdgreen, I endorse your idea of a Labour Party, but it has to be one that fights for ALL
workers, not just unionized ones, and that includes unemployed and underemployed workers (I am asssuming that this is what you mean too, despite the assumptions voiced by another poster).
seriousjim
6 years ago
Like it makes a difference. It's been a fun few weeks here on the Tyee for sure, but BC policy is controlled by foreign interests whoever wins.
Follow the money trail, it doesn't come from the ballot box.
Money talks and we are all to blame for that. Most of us aren't as shameless as "I Say", who is more worried about his client's future than his own.
Here come the privatizations. Better start saving up, it won't come cheap.
What else can we do but try to get some for ourself during the big sell out?
Puppet regimes all around. Follow your pwn money, what are you really supporting?
Stuart
6 years ago
Will is dead wrong , this is a horse race. If you catched Will on CKNW last Friday cheerleading with Michael Smyth you would feel the way I do. CKNW and the CANWEST empire along with the Globe and Mail Push polls etc and turning up the heat. I feel they know
Its close and are working overtime for Gordo. The NDP are at a strong 40% going in, the Fiberals are say 45% - 46% best, with the Liberal's strong concentrated support on the North Shore plus the West side 5% is nothing. Remember the Glen Clarke win, on CKNW (red neck radio ) they did a straw poll which had 23 Liberal, 16 NDP and 2 green. Hey folks that’s not bad for red neck radio. And off the Liberal 23 , 7 voters were West end Richmond or North Shore. The NDP are always better at getting the vote out, its big Media and corporations vs the NDP and its army on the ground. Get out and vote and drive a couple of family and friends to the polls. Hey look at the Liberal freezy over the last couple of days, they know its close.
Truman Green
6 years ago
Well, blonde pitbull, I'm hugely outnumbered on the importance of not using phony names. (I ranted and raved about it a few months ago) I even wondered for a minute if it was just some weird obsession on my part.) I find that I have little or no respect for anyone who uses phony names to express their opinion, and rarely take anything they say seriously. I love the Tyee, and think it's the best thing to come along in a long while, and I have utmost respect and admiration for the founders, contributors and editors, but the phony-names issue is a matter of personal dignity--and respect for all those who fought for the right to free and acknowledged expression. Incidentally, you can change your handle back to your real name if you wish. I accidentally used only my first name for a while, and requested that my last name be added. It was.
sirjohna
6 years ago
anne; a point of agreement! indeed the average voter in b.c. is not very intelligent, as witnessed by the fact that they fell for glen clarks' lies and deceit in '96.
Yammer
6 years ago
After their near wipeout last time, I look for a moderate NDP rebound to, say, 15-20 seats. The Greens will have 1, the Libs the rest of course.
STV pass/fail? I think it will fail.
Stuart
6 years ago
Fiberals = 39 NDP = 39 Green = 0
DR BC = 1 Sex Party = Members to busy to vote,
Work Less Party = Slept inn
BC Marijuana Party = To stoned.
anne cameron
6 years ago
I'm all for "real" names and I don't even know WHY I am...and yet I know the risk of using your actual name because wing-nuts have phoned at three in the morning and given me an ear full of verbal crap...I wrote a letter to the editor in Powell River and a former teacher/school principal phoned and told me if I ever wrote another book he would kill me... I have written several and the scum sucking coward has yet to try to come at me... the RCMP were about as much help as a wet toilet seat...Was I scared? More like very uneasy because obviously the guy was not very stable and he was undoubtedly as angry as all hell.. but I no longer worry because I watch all the CSI shows, eh, and I know his epithelials will allow them to identify him and he'll rot in jail, right? I mean... really, eh? Know what I mean?
I'm off to watch the election results. I am praying we get a strong opposition... I would LOVE to see the LIEberals get their asses kicked and have the NDP form the government with the Greens as strong opposition but...I don't smoke anything but tobacco and I don't drink anything but coffee so I can't quite manage to pull off THAT daydream...
And to all of you (except Bidet, of course), this site has been the bright spot in an otherwise lackluster and boring election campaign and I thank all of you for your energy and your passion.
Ah, you're a fine bunch you are and we won't see the likes of you again soon!!
Bob Rogers
6 years ago
I agree with you Anne. I will even go so far as to say I live on Saltpsring Island.
Stuart may have hit the nail on the head but I hope that that "1" vote be Green.
Well it is 5 to eight so we will soon know. See you all. It's party time for the Green Party!
I Say
6 years ago
to Anne, we liked the NDp better when they were in opposition better than when they were in Government too. That's why they are still in opposition.
to Anne Cameron. To bad you have put up with that crap from such a yahoo. People like that give us semi compassionate righties a bad rap. But then there are pretty out of line lefties too. More than a couple of them contribute regularily to these strings.
As for my earlier predictions of a 60 - 19 or 59 - 20 Liberal win- well I was bit off. A wee tad overly optomistic I'll admit- but at least it was not a smoke induced delusion like some of the other predictions here.
As for Carol James- great job!! Just make sure you keep your back against the wall and beware of Glen's buddies. And good luck- you'll newed it.
And finally- Four more years of prosperity- YES!!!
I Say
6 years ago
Screwed that up- I meant to say that "there are plenty of out of line lefties out there too"- I'll endeavor to type better in future.
Chris H
6 years ago
Did you see my prediction? Did you see my prediction? Why would you ever doubt me again?
Anne
6 years ago
Yes, Chris, you sure were right!
Blonde Pitbull, I love your handle and support your right to anonymity. Truman, if we really did have the right to freedom of expression without consequences I would agree with you. But those of us who are not rich and powerful can get serious consequences for speaking out and, until that changes, though I, myself, mostly use my real name, I support those who choose anonymity. If they were not allowed to be anonymous we would not be hearing from them, and I don't mind hearing from a few trollers as the price to pay for hearing from more serious people. (Sometimes people prefer anonymity to protect others--for example, I talked about my son's psychotic breakdown on one of these strings and that is one reason I am not using my last name.)
Bob Rogers
6 years ago
Hey people, Let's move to the national stage. It's more interesting than the NHL play-offs ever were. Stronach rules.
Anne
6 years ago
Another thing, Truman, even if someone uses a first and last name, and it's a perfectly normal-sounding name, we on this list have no way of knowing whether or not it's their real name.
Bob Rogers
6 years ago
Hey Anne:
Try 411. If you find me by telephone I'll take you out to lunch on me.
cheers: Bob
BLONDE PITBULL
6 years ago
Truman, sorry to take so long to respond,I've actually been working for the last week...hmmmm.
So inform me how I would request that my handle be changed.
Anne, thank you....
For those who'd care my name is Ellie Smith - yes, Smith....