Opinion

The Ridings that Will Decide Battleground BC

Tyee’s new daily feature projects seats up for grabs for NDP and Liberals. And updates as fortunes shift.

By David Beers, 31 Mar 2005, TheTyee.ca

Battlefront

Would you like a glimpse of the chart that strategists for parties are poring over as they plan their assaults on British Columbia’s voters for the May 17 election? The Tyee offers its exclusive Seat Projection Model here.

The chart has been prepared by Will McMartin and will be part of his daily feature called Battleground BC, to be updated every day on The Tyee’s new section Election Central. The Seat Projection Model breaks the province down into 13 sub-regions. And it places the province’s 79 ridings into five categories: Solid NDP; Likely NDP; Up for Grabs; Likely Liberal and Solid Liberal. McMartin has allocated these ridings to one category or another based on historic voting patterns, recent events and polling.

What his breakdown says is this: Despite the BC Liberals’ lead in recent polls, enough of the 79 ridings are up for grabs that the NDP does have a chance to win the coming election. But everything will have to break near perfectly for the NDP. The numbers as McMartin calculates them are as follows: Solid or Likely NDP: 18. Solid or likely Liberals: 37. Up for grabs: 24. As it takes 40 seats to win the election, the NDP needs to win 22 out of the 24 seats up for grabs, or steal away some ‘likely Liberal’ seats.

McMartin is a respected political analyst who has managed or advised dozens of political campaigns, and lends his insights to the CBC as well as The Tyee, where he’s a regular columnist.

Get oriented, stay tuned

The table presented today will remain as it is until April 19. Until then, McMartin will provide daily updates to review the placement of each riding, offer an overview of the Battleground BC sub-region model, and examine factors which might come into play during the course of the election campaign.

Then, once the election campaign officially gets underway on April 19, as developments arise and circumstances warrant, ridings in the ‘toss-up’ column will be reassigned to the ‘likely’ or ‘solid’ columns for one of the two major parties. It also is possible that seats once thought of as secure for one party or another, may shift into the ‘toss-up’ column or to another party if dramatic events occur province-wide or in that specific riding. McMartin will continue his daily up-dates throughout the writ period, focusing on those ridings and regions vital to the election of one party or the other to government.

By the final week of the election campaign, Battleground B.C.’s Seat Projection Model will estimate seat totals for the Liberal party and the New Democratic Party, and, if required, for any of the province’s myriad minor parties that possibly might win one or more seats.

Voting history and selected demographics will play a key role in our determination of how each one of B.C.’s 79 electoral districts will vote on May 17. But even more important will be the constant input from Tyee readers across the province, who, we hope, will provide useful insights, valuable information and keen observations, and of course argue if they disagree with our picks. We invite you to let us know what is happening in your community, riding or region, or your view of developments on the campaign trail.

Strategies focus on ‘toss-ups’

“One of the first things political strategists do when plotting an election campaign,” says McMartin, “is undertake a process of elimination. That is, they eliminate from their plans those constituencies they are certain to win, and those they are certain to lose. The ones remaining are those which might be described as ‘toss-ups,’ constituencies which might be won by their own candidate, or by their opponent.

“It is here, in the key battleground constituencies, that they will devise their election strategy and devote the bulk of their campaign efforts. That is because it is these small number of constituencies that most likely will determine the outcome of the election.

“Consider that in the 2004 U.S. presidential campaign, Republican strategist Karl Rove scheduled not a single appearance by George W. Bush in either Utah, which he was certain to win, or Massachusetts, which he was certain to lose. Instead, Rove had Bush make repeated visits to such vital ‘swing’ states as Ohio and Florida, and, in the end, the GOP incumbent won both and won reelection. “Similarly, in the 2004 Canadian federal election, Alberta received few visits by either Liberal prime minister Paul Martin or Conservative leader Stephen Harper. The Liberals knew that they would make few if any gains in the province, regardless of how hard they worked and the resources they expended, while the Conservatives knew they would retain the bulk of the seats with minimal effort. Consequently, Martin made frequent visits to British Columbia and other provinces which could produce gains, while Harper spent the bulk of his time in seat-rich Ontario.

“That same process of elimination has already taken place in British Columbia as the province prepares for the May 17 provincial general election. Long ago, strategists with the governing Liberal party and the opposition New Democratic Party eliminated from their campaign plans those seats they were certain to win, and those they were certain to lose.

“For example, the Liberals know that the NDP will easily retain MLA Jenny Kwan’s Vancouver-Mount Pleasant riding, while the New Democrats understand that the Liberals will retain MLA Colin Hansen’s Vancouver-Quilchena district by a comfortable margin. Consequently, neither party will devote many resources to these two ridings. There are many more like them.

Check out Election Central

“This is not to say that it is impossible for upsets to occur. One only has to recall Social Credit’s stunning breakthrough in 1952, when the party went from obscurity to government, or the Liberals’ 1991 emergence from the political wilderness to official opposition. And the 2001 campaign is still vivid for many British Columbians, as the Liberals swept 77 seats, including many rarely captured by centre-right political parties, and the NDP was reduced to just two. “But it is evident that such results are rare and infrequent. And so political strategists develop their election plans based on what is likely to occur, not what ‘might’ happen once every two or three decades.”

As you can see, McMartin has a plenty of insight to share about the coming election. To gain from it every day, go to The Tyee’s new section Election Central (www.electioncentral.ca) and click on the Battleground BC button in the right hand column.

And look for more features, including an exclusive election blog, to appear at Election Central in the days to come. We invite you to make Election Central www.electioncentral.ca the first place you go every day to come up to speed on the issues, the scuttlebutt, and the unfolding odds on Battleground BC.

David Beers is founding editor of The Tyee.  [Tyee]

58  Comments:

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  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    Comments on "The Ridings that Will Decide Battleground BC&q

    I wonder if it is significant that there is so little comment here? Hmmmm. For the length of time this article has been up... The election so close... I would have thought...

    The absence of comment here does seem to parallel my own impression of the leadup to this election thus far however-, though perhaps it is just here, in this small town; almost zero discussion or enthusiasm. There is certainly no great feeling that I detect yet that we are on the eve of a defeat of the government. There are those trying to get it going, of course, but as yet, flat.

    Now, it could just be early, the opposition NDP and Greens are not yet getting out with their programmes or going full tilt with their organizing efforts, or they are being ignored by the corporate media, as has been becoming rather the new tradition in our minimal capitalist democracy, in these neocon times. Hopefully, that is all it is.

    Or maybe it is just that I have never been less impressed with the alternatives myself, and it is colouring my judgement of things. That is a distinct possibility, I concede.

    Whatever, I just can't shake this perception of lack of enthusiasm. For sure there is no widespread undercurrent of excitement out there, that I can detect, and I am actually looking for it-, which one would expect to be out there on the eve of the fall of a government. I mean flat, flat as a stale old, mould encrusted pancake is what I detect.

    There is still time for it all to turn around yet, for sure, and hopefully it will. It could be the cynicism of my advanced years too, of course, but I don't think I have ever observed quite this mood out there before. There is a palpable, underlying current of cynicism.

    Or, or the electorate could be just quietly and resolvedly going to attend the polls on election day, and vote these friggin' Neocon Lib asses right out of office. Even in the face of a lack of enthusiasm for the alternatives. I know that is what I am planning on doing-, and if the general populace is as well, I will be floored. I mean, I have never been in marching step with my times and the popular perceptions of it before.

    Foreboding. Foreboding. :-)

    I hate it when things are so hard to read.

    I mean, as a cribbage player, I like it best when I am way out front and everyone else is still way behind the skunk line. (I never claimed to be a nice guy.)

  • alexwh

    7 years ago

    I think that the absence of comment has something to do with the new design. The design is much too neat and in compartments. You have to look for stuff. Before (and I am warming up to the old Tyee) it was all over the place. And I liked it like that.

  • crh

    7 years ago

    I think the cyinicism factor is huge right now. Seems to stem from the huge lies put out by Gordo and Co. last election and then four years of screwing the people of BC. Why discuss issues at election time? There are no guarantees to the voter that what is promised will be done.

    I for one am just quietly waiting until election day and will then cast my vote with great enthusiasm.

    Power to the people.

  • JIm

    7 years ago

    You ask why discuss issues. Well I have a few issue questions. What are the NDP going to do differently than the Liberals? Are they going to reverse many of the changes made by the Liberals? If not, why not? How are they going to solve the problems facing BC today, not just complain, actually solve the problems they have outlined?

    But I guess we don't need to know these things as Carole will get into specifics after the election.

    You may answer that she not going to get into answering those questions until the writ is dropped. Could that then be the reason, Coyote, that she hasn’t been getting much press? It’s hard to report on nothing.

    Personally I think the NDP is making a huge strategical error. Unless their plan is to have an issue less campaign were nothing is even discussed in any detail at all. But I’m not a political strategist so who knows.

  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    Quote:
    But I guess we don't need to know these things as Carole will get into specifics after the election.

    Which is certainly what Wino Gordo did, more or less, during the last election, of course. Actually, he more out and out lied, when he said he wouldn't tear up workers union contracts, and flatly stated he wouldn't sell BC Rail etc.

    Though neither do I really intend to try and defend the NDP, for your questions are all good and salient ones, for sure.

    But let's be honest, there is a long tradition in what passes for current democracy, of trying to sneak into power, making as few commitments as possible, or where that fails, as Wino Gordo did, lying about your intentions if all else fails, and claiming its as a result of some sin of your predecessor. It is this tradition of double speak, evasion and outright lying that is the source of much of the cynicism being obseved in the great public body politic.

    Being why, we will get by this neocon period and mitigate its effects somewhat, probably actually doing capitalism a life prolonging favour, which annoys me, I grant, or if Gordo gets back in for example, and the crisis deepens over time and brings social matters to a head, and eventually brings the street finally into motion, there is a need for folks to finally resolve the failures of this period by taking control of their own economics and politics, instead of using ruling class or weak flunky intermediaries. That would actually be my preferred hope, hands down. (Though I really intend to vote against letting The Wino back into government-, being such a slimy snot as he is.)

    The fundamental problem is, what is, is not good enough. It is an inadequate and failing democracy, destined to come to a head eventually-, whether that be in the short or long run of history. Though none too soon for me.

  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    As a simple further aside, I personally have serious doubts about the future usefulness or desirability of all political parties. My view being, that society would generally fare much better if the party system itself were dispensed with, or fell into disuse, and if potential leadership, such as may be required, came forward and into the judging arena naked, as individuals, creating loose and fluid alliances as necessary, around issues and the conduct of the political affairs of Society.

    (Note, I deliberately did not use the word State, which I would prefer actually wither away, like an old plant come to the end of its season.)

  • Ron Erwin

    7 years ago

    The only drama at this point is will the NDP win 22,23 or at most 25 seats.
    Unless they can come up with some creativity at the polling booths as those that the Democratic Party pulled in KING County in their vote for Governor, I don't see much hope for them. And you can be sure that us Consrevatives have a game plan to make sure that doesn't happen. Afterall, what does the NDP bring to the table except for an undigestable grey gruel. Sorry, but the majority of people in BC are now gourmet thanks to this progressive party in power. Long live consevative values.

  • alexwh

    7 years ago

    I have had respect for politicians who other professions before they became politicians. An example would be Bob Bose who at one time was mayor of Surrey. When I photographed him with his chain of office he said, "You must remember who else wore it." I did,Ed McKitka and Bill VanderZalm. While I don't have much fondness for Premier Gordon Campbell I do respect the office he represents. It is a patent example of what ails our times when we call our elected Premier (somebody must have elected him) a wino. Why is it that we don't use this expression to describe friends or relatives and find it even politically incorrect to call a genuine wino (whatever that might be) a wino. I came to Canada because in Latin America we expected politicians to be dishonest. Nobody with talent and intelligence would ever want to be a politician in those parts. I am unhappy that here in Canada we are no different and we call our politician liars. Did Glen Clark lie? Is there a law against politicians lying? How are they held accountable? I remember that the Federal Liberals said that if they were elected they would get rid of the GST. The problem with our political party system is that we who elect them allow them to lie. I would like to see a visionary like architect Bing Thom being drafted into politics. He would make one very good premier or mayor.

  • kegler

    7 years ago

    "And you can be sure that us Consrevatives have a game plan to make sure that doesn't happen."

    Conservatives supporting a Liberal party... geez this must be British Columbia. I guess one of those tactics that Mr. Erwin refers to the ad that appeared in the BC Newsgroup papers in Burnaby, New West and the Tri Cities, in Wednesday's edition, with a sketch of a balding guy with a cheshire cat smile, making a quote about how the BC Liberals bought him his new house. Must be either 1) a relative of Gordon Campbell, or 2) an executive with one of the corporate donors to the Fiberals. About how they're responsible for housing starts being up in BC (not that historically low interest rates and record high commodity prices have anything to do with it, something that the Provincial government has NO CONTROL of whatsoever, have anything to do with that.) And how on election day, he's voting Liberal.

    There's only a few problems with this ad. First it was bought by a group calling themselves "supporters of the BC Fiberals.. err Liberals." At least when the teachers attack the Campbell government over their increases in class sizes, cutting up of contracts and the like, they are proud enough to announce who bought the ad time, not to hide in the shadows of a group of "supporters".

    And second of all, the ad plays like a quote from someone, but there's no name or identity of the person allegedly making this quote. But then again, its pre election advertising so anything goes I guess. But then again, I thought that there was standards in advertising. When it comes to the Liberals and their supporters, and engaging in this kind of unaccountable, shadow hiding, rhetoric, and calling it advertising... what else can be expected of a government who won't even expose their budget to estimates scrutiny, and who all the taxpayers of this province are paying to campaign up until the writs dropped.

    In 1996, Campbell pulled a political stunt, shovelling loonies off the back of a dump truck in Kerrisdale. In 2005, he's repeated the stunt, only as premier, and its not just loonies he's shovelling off the back of the truck. There's a foul stench coming from that truck, and its not just his breath. Must be the steaming pile of manure that they're trying to shove down our throats.

  • kegler

    7 years ago

    To Alexwh:

    People call gordo a wino, because of the high moral standing he forced people to take while he was in opposition, yet when he commits a severe indiscretion and gets busted drinking and driving, he steadfastly refused to abide by that same standard, and resign. Instead, he along went in front of the cameras and cried and whined that he had sinned (kind of like Jimmy Swaggert after getting caught with his pants around his ankles in an adulterous affair) and then promptly told everyone through friendly media outlets that he had been forgiven.

    I wonder if Kevin Kreuger, the resident BC Liberal holy roller, told Mr. Campbell that age old proverb about living in glass houses.
    So now, we have a convicted criminal currently inhabiting the esteemed office as Premier of BC. Your right about the office and the esteem it holds. And while you do respect the office, its the people that hold that office that are judged by their actions while inhabiting it. Mr. Campbell failed the true test of the office, by not living up to the standard in which he himself attempted to have upheld when he was in opposition.

    The price to pay for that is high. While his fans and some political types choose to ignore this indiscretion, his enemies, and people that were held to his high moral levels while in office, as well as people who can't stand hypocrites, are free and clear to continually bring this up.

    Had Campbell done the right thing, and stepped down as premier, and had there been an outcry to restore him to the office that he held, to the point that there was palpable feeling that he should be restored to premier, then that would have been fine, and most people wouldn't have had too big a beef with it.

    But instead, Campbell chose to be arrogant and ignorant or what people see, or even of his own public image. To me, the mere fact that he's still premier after forcing out Glen Clark, over a "perceived" wrong doing, not an actual criminal act as was borne out in the courts, is about the truest example of convenient hypocrisy one could ever find.

  • Ron Erwin

    7 years ago

    Gordon Campbell is not a convicted criminal. And I think all the hateful people calling him a liar and a wino are ignorant of the true facts. He was found guilty of a misdemaenor. There was nobody harmed except himself. He did not gloat about it but showed genuine regret. MADD is an extemist organization. To er is human, to forgive is devine. At least he is helping people get ahead in BC. Not social engineering like the NDP (liberals).

  • Sugar

    7 years ago

    Mr. Erwin,

    In BC if you plead guilty to drunk driving, you have a criminal record and are a convicted criminal. It is not different in Hawaii. Felons and Misdemeanors are severity of the CRIME.

    To say no one was hurt is one of the most ignorant things I have ever heard. If you rob a store at knife point but dont stab anyone is that not a crime?

    I thought your comments were somewhat intelligent until you made that ludicrous and ignorant statement.

    The reason it is a crime is because of the potential of the act. If he got into an accident before melting a breathalizer, we wouldnt be having this converstation because he would have spent more than 1 night in jail and he would have had to resign.

    I respect people who opine on their support for this Neo-Con Quasi Liberal Gestapo. But to defend his act in Maui is not only an insult to people who have been victimized by the same CRIMINAL act that Campebll did but to anyone with a shred of integrity.

    Your leader should have resigned. There is no defending it. You are truly blinded perhaps if a loved one of yours is ever struck by a plastered driver, you might change your tune.

    Idiot.

  • mbraun

    7 years ago

    Mr. Erwin, about 7 months ago I was rear ended by a drunk driver while i was driving down the highway. That is, he was so drunk that he rammed me from behind not realizing there were other vehicles on the road. if not for the barrier on the highway, my wife and i would have gone over a cliff most likely to our deaths. So by your logic, because i wasn't seriously hurt, all should be forgot? I have never resorted to name calling on this board before, but you ignorance leaves me in agreement with sugar's sign off statement! Are these the conservative values you speak of? If so, no thank you!

  • alexwh

    7 years ago

    You have to respect people (even if you have high moral standards to not respect them) simply because all humans have a dignity that is innate to them. To call someone in this discussion an idiot, or to hint that the person is not intelligent and or ignorant is to prove my point that we have the government we deserve as we cannot even respect fellow citizens. It would be interesting to check how many platestered drivers kill people and how many, perfectly sober, fast and reckless drivers kill people. Byt the time you remove these from your list, plus lying politicians and citizen idiots you will be lucky to have yourself to respect.

  • Sugar

    7 years ago

    I shouldn't have resorted to name calling, but labelling MADD as an extremist organization is more absurd than the rest of his commentary.

    MADD: A group of people who's lives have been crushed due to losing loved ones to drunk drivers.

    Right up there with Hamas and Hezbholla eh Ron?

  • alexwh

    7 years ago

    It's nice to see that we acknowledge that name calling is not necessary. It is an organization like MADD that very quickly in a few years changed the perception about drunk driving. At one time young men and other men would boast on how drunk they were when they were driving. That drunk driving is seen as a serious offence is thanks to the folks of MADD. Now we need a MALP. This would be mothers against lying politicians.

  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    Quote:
    I respect people who opine on their support for this Neo-Con Quasi Liberal Gestapo. But to defend his act in Maui is not only an insult to people who have been victimized by the same CRIMINAL act that Campebll did but to anyone with a shred of integrity.

    This discussion has actually taken quite an amusing turn, which usually happen when the Wingnuts appear on the scene-, but nonetheless, Sugar, a good comment.

    Ron Erwin demonstrates that double think moral standard typical of his neo-conservative politics as soon as it is his Great Leader who is up for critical examination. On the other hand, mention Svend Robinson to these holy roller neocons and watch the backbending and self-fellating of which these folks are typically capable. (Cast one's memory back but a short distance to that discussion.)

    I'd rather they said what they really think . No Fear One only need become fearful and sensitive of literary license :-) with words and labels, when they cut too close to the bone or touch nerves connected to one's guilt centre. Which appears to be the case with Ronny boy.

  • Chris H

    7 years ago

    What Ron Erwin demonstrates is that he has no idea what he is talking about or he is trying to mislead people. His statement that a misdemeanor in the US is not a crime is completely untrue. You can argue that the criminal offence he was convicted of was no big deal (something I don't believe), but you cannot argue that Gordon Campbell was not convicted of a criminal offense in the US.

    What is still shocking to me is how Gordon Campbell was so quickly forgiven for his choice of driving while drunk. If you really think he shouldn't have stepped down as chief lawmaker in this province, please don't preach to students about the dangers of drunk driving because it is obviously not that big a deal. I was shocked, and continue to be so, at all the older adults I know who preached to us (when I was in highschool in the late 80s) about not drinking and driving and how serious it was that so quickly commented how everyone had done it. What a bunch of hyporites!

  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    Sugar? That isn't you is it, Fi?

    I love the moniker. :-) It's pleasantly politically incorrect.

    Hey, Wingnuts, maybe it's even a guy! :-) (Just to really mess with your anally retentive heads.)

    And, of course, you needn't answer that if you don't want to, Sugar, of course. :-) Or lie. I mean, it was okay for The Wino, so we can all get pissed and drive, and lie to our hearts content, even make promises we will later ignore and break-, and, of course, blame the other fellow.

    "It's the NDPS fault we had to break all our promises." they bleat like pathetic sheep.

    These Wingnuts are utter, complete Fantasists, who have so little regard for the rest of us, they think we won't even notice, don't fucking know, or, "What the Hell!", we're just lower class riff-raff whose opinions don't count for shit anyway.

    Nail the Wingnut Fantasists!

    Ehhh, this is a really good Pinot Noir!!! :-)

  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    I promise I won't drive. I already gave the keys to the old lady.

    Which raises another question, "Where's The Wino's wedding ring? How come we never see him with his old lady? He doesn't have something going with his private secretary, does he? :-) Are they bunking in together?

    Ehhh, when a man is never seen with his old lady, the rumours do start to circulate.

    Like, where was she when he was getting pissed and driving in Hawaii?

    I always know where my old lady is, and she ALWAYS knows where I am. I can't even leave the house without, "Eh, where are you going?"

    I'm not complaining, dear. :-)

  • alexwh

    7 years ago

    No matter what anybody says about those holy roller neocons I would argue that self-fellating is an epithet that cannot be used. Only dogs can, and nobody here is going to argue that those folks are of the canine variety.
    Alex Waterhouse-Hayward

  • alexwh

    7 years ago

    Perhaps Mr. Erwin is making the point that Premier Campbell by committing a misdemeanor is not a convicted felon. I am not defending the man just trying to clarify the point.

  • BrianWhite

    7 years ago

    I just think it is sad that the perception of the choice is BC LIB or NDP. With so many people not trusting the Gordons, and not willing to forgive the NDP, is there no chance of a green or democratic whatever winning a seat?
    Here is a strange statistic. Half the lumber cut in canada last year was cut in this province! So, BC citizens should be as rich as the people who live on that island of bird poop in the pacific? Right?
    (I am guessing that lumber is more valuable than bird poop).
    I just hope they didnt cut down all those trees just to pay for 3rd party political adverts.

  • Nationalist

    7 years ago

    The question I have is if someone other than a BC Liberal did the samething what would be expected of him/her? Somehow I don't think the opposition or the media would be so forgiving.
    Opps! wait! their is no opposition! Well as it would appear if it was someone other than a BC Liberal the media would play it to death untill we were sick to death of the issue.

    P.S.
    Ron Irwin Shut UP!! I think Ron Irwin is the leader of the ANNEXATION PARTY OF B.C.

  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    Quote:
    ...is there no chance of a green or democratic whatever winning a seat?

    My personal electoral policy is, to vote for whatever left or "progressive" candidate has the best chance of defeating the rightist alliance that is the BC Liberals. Which may have to be a judgement call on my part.

    Though I have concerns about the breadth and depth of the "progressive" character of The Greens, as I do the NDP, if the election develops in my riding such that they seem to have the best chance of defeating The Fiberals, they will get my vote. (I really don't see a sharp political demarcation line between either the Greens or NDP, frankly.)

    This is what I would characterize as one of those being caught between The Devil and the deep blue sea elections -, where there is no choice but to cast about for the lesser of the evils out there. Which is the way it will be, until folks get in motion and change the situation, by taking collective responsibility for what is done in their name.

    Save for the Loonie Right, such as that Annexation Party crew, Anybody But The Liberals! (Our Ron Erwin is a quisling collaborator for the US Empire, you say!!?? The shoe does seem about his size.)

  • budlight

    7 years ago

    so coyote,i,m sure your wife love,s being called[ old lady] eh,,,
    can anyone give me one good reason to vote ndp?
    this province reminds me of ontario, late 80,s, everyone,s working.so lets keep bob rae out of here o.k.

    great to see your sermon again kegler,cheers.

  • Banquos ghost

    7 years ago

    Interesting to see the new Globe and Mail BC issue hit the stands today with the scoop, via Petti Fong, that Wally Oppal is resigning the bench to run for the Liberals in the upcoming election.

  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    Quote:
    ...so coyote,i,m sure your wife love,s being called[ old lady] eh,,

    Nor do I mind her calling me her old man, for indeed I am that. It's in the respectful and loving tone with which I say it and demonstrate it. On the other hand, some men just don't get it, and can say all the politically correct words, and still alienate their women and piss them off. It's in more than the mere words themselves, to which women seem especially attuned, but which maybe you have simply never got, it sounds like.

    On the other hand, the old lady and I, her old man, have been bunked in together for 46 years, and we still love each other like we did as teenagers.

    But to your other point, even if everyone was working in this province, which is more neocon hyperbole, more and more it is at minimum wages, long hours and work weeks without overtime pay, third world labour standards, no pension plans, holidays at the cottage or other benefits, and increasingly, two jobs to just keep one's head above water-, which doesn't raise families with prospectsor provide for a quality of life fit for human beings. On the other hand, the ruling class and its upper management flunkies are prospering and doing just fine, thank you very much, Bud Extremely, Extremely Light.

  • kegler

    7 years ago

    In regards to Gordon Campbell and his lack of integrity, one has to wonder whatelse he did after a few maui martinis, beers and the like? Alex, as I said before, I respect the office of premier, I just have no respect for the moron currently inhabiting it. You can tell me til your blue in the face that I have to respect all human beings etc, but you're forgetting the one tenet of respect...

    "respect isn't given... it's earned."

    And to me the even more hilarious thing is the fact that there was Carole Taylor, putting old sore points aside, giving Gordon Campbell a big hug. I guess time does heal old wounds, particularly when Gordo was Mayor when Carole got royally screwed by the NPA at the civic nomination meeting, by a man who's name escapes me, bussing in numerous people with instructions to vote for the first 7 candidates.

    Gordon Campbell could have spoken up against this, but chose instead at the time to remain silent, forcing Ms Taylor to run as an independent councillor. But it wasn't until Ms. Taylor was guaranteed to run in a "safe seat" did she come forward. So one has to wonder just how truly committed she is to get involved in the bloodsport that is BC politics. And how much did it cost to buy off Sandy McCormick and Jennifer Clarke? As usual with the unaccountable, unethical tipsy maui wowie operator.... no answers on that one either.

    One final point about Mr. Campbell. The mere fact that people are debating whether or not the NDP will win the election, is as big an indictment of the man who held the biggest majority government in the history of BC, and their record, as the hatred of the man is.

    And Budlight, maybe the people you're referring to in terms of newly employed in BC are those $9/hr people working the BC Liberal's boilerroom on Cordova St. The same ones that received 4% of their wages for the recently past stat holiday. In violation of the Employment Standards Act. Can you imagine it, the BC Liberals own contractor, violating provincial labour law??? Shame Shame Shame. Then again, I guess its not truly a $9/hr job when the contractor doesn't deduct income tax from their cheques.

    So a person who works for the Fiberal Sweatshop boiler room, can expect to have to pay out more for their income taxes, at tax time in 05. I wonder how much each Liberal campaign is paying for the centralized phone bank?

  • budlight

    7 years ago

    so coyote, 46 years, i guess skank and bitch are out of the picture.god bless her.
    and kegler , i,m sure if the economy sucked right now, high interest rates etc. the ndp would be blaming outside sources, right.

    everyone starts at 9 dollars per hour ,if your good, you move up, if your not, well, you join a union and suck the blood right out of a company. eg... dogfucker, which was the real strain on the HEU,,, go ahead and ask them.

    i make big bucks and no floater can steal that from me.
    so what is diamond dan doing for the libs ?

  • kegler

    7 years ago

    In regards to Diamond Dan, the fiberals can have him. Same goes for when Ujji jumped ship. Don't let the door hit their asses on the way out.

    And Budlight, you bring up a point that is bang on, the liberals HAVE NOTHING whatsoever to do with the current economic situation in BC. The economy is going good because of historically low interest rates (something that they can't take credit for, as those rates are set by the Bank of Canada), and record high commodity prices (which once again, other than botching the BC Rail deal and denying BC'ers the opportunity to benefit from high prices in coal the provincial government has NO CONTROL over.

    No, I'm afraid that when you look at the economics of this government... racking up close to 5 billion dollars in deficits over the first 3 years, something the NDP couldn't have done that quick on their best day, while cutting services and privatizing anything not bolted down, and in some cases even those things bolted down, the only thing that's bailed them out are transfer payments from Ottawa. By the way, did you catch the story Friday about Forestry profits are expected to be about 1/2 of what they were projected to be? So much for the start of that Golden Decade!!!!

    So here's the part where you blame the NDP's management in government, but as you astutely point out, government's cannot be held responsible for things like the post 9/11 meltdown of the stock market, so I'll give the Libs as much room on that as they gave the NDP during the asian meltdown.. which was absolutely none. But in all reality Budlight, its not a Liberal government we have in BC. Because as far as I've seen the true Liberals have either jumped off the ship or retired. That would leave all the right wing conservative harper ites.

    In terms of my mentioning the boiler room on Cordova St, you missed the point entirely. First of all their job terminates when the polls close on May 17th. My second point concerned how these people were compensated for the recently passed Stat Holiday. Rather than receiving 8 hours pay as they are entitled to under employment standards, plus time and a half for those who worked that day, they received 4% of their daily earnings. Keeping in mind that the company doing the boiler room for the Liberals is obviously closely connected to the Liberals, you would think that those people were aware of basic Employment Standards legislation.

    I'm glad you make "big bucks" and aren't a floater, but the above mentioned situation (Liberal Supported Boiler Room) is a case study on where unions are effective, and needed. By the way, in terms of the HEU, can you perhaps describe the demographic of the membership of the union? I know what it is, and you could extrapolate from Campbell's treatment of these particular people (after telling them in 2001, they had nothing to worry about, that his government would honour their collective agreement) that Gordon Campbell enjoys attacking people who are members of various visible minority groups. Its another example of this perceived left right pendulum nonsense. My answer to it is quite simple. Ban Union and Corporate donations.

    It was done federally, why can't it be done provincially? No instead all we get is a refendum on electoral reform with a choice of either keeping the current system, or getting rid of it and bringing in a system so convulded and screwy, that people more likely than not, if they can't understand it, will just vote against it. In BC first past the post would work nicely, if you followed the federal lead and severely limited corporate and union donations.

    Take a look at the funding formulas for both parties Bud, and tell me which one would come out the better under that system!!! 68% liberal funding, corporate and business donations. 25% of NDP funding... unions.

    And one other thing, I honestly hope you don't think that because you're a member of a union, that somehow that makes you lazy, and somehow a lower class citizen than someone that perhaps works for an ethical company in which a union isn't needed. Cause I'll tell you something, dogfucking goes on as much in the non union sector as it does in the union sector. And if you think not, you're only kidding yourself.

  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    The beauty of these Brownshirts like the Dim Lightbud is, tolerate them and lead them into their dark places where they expose themselves politically like dirty old men throwing open their trenchcoats, for all to see. The Dim Lightbud has just done that, quicker and easier than even the dumbest I've come across to date.

    No more needs to be said to this asshole. Better to just leave him hanging there,twisting in his own broken wind.

    This guy ain't even accidently going to impress anybody but another Brownshirt.

    It is amusing to observe them garrotte themselves here though. :-) They are their own Final Solution-, and they take a few more votes away from the Neocon Libs everytime they open their mouths. More, they actually help create the radicalized opposition that will be capable of really taking them on one day, that will make the NDP and Greens look like milk-toasts.

    That's what I mean, when I say that really, these guys are going to do our work for us. We just have to know how to be patient, even if they miraculously pull off another term, which I doubt, and provoke them, while they create the force themselves that will be their undoing.

  • budlight

    7 years ago

    coyote, well i no deep down you love me, so don,t get mad ,get even, good luck.

    but hey,, kegler some solid points,
    what the liberal gov,t brings to the table is stability, an opp for all of us ,skilled or unskilled to better are lifestyles. hey some people are smarter than others, were not ALL EQUAL, I,M just trying to cover my own ass at work,per see.
    do you remember tumbler ridge, tell me how many people thought that coal would make a comeback, [crystal ball].

    kegler, when a young person starts a job, the whole thing is about training that person, eg. welcome to the real world, all we want to do is build a strong infrastructure that give,s people a chance to make there own descions.
    as aformer union member that still carry,s a card i can tell you this much,.i don,t need a union to tell me how to do my job,, but i am lucky as some places are[sadly] still 3rd world.
    that said you guys should answer my question. again,, give me one good reason to vote ndp.

  • Frank

    7 years ago

    The best reason to vote NDP is Gordon Campbell isn't a member of the party.

    Now tell me why anyone would vote Liberal?

  • Frank

    7 years ago

    For what its worth Coyote, I expect the NDP to be drowned out in this campaign. The Liberals have a huge war chest courtesy of those they work for to buy all the print and air time they need. Add to that the obvious cheerleading on the part of the provincial media and really all you have left is radio interview type stuff.

    Still, I expect Carole will make a good showing and maybe even pull this out.

  • budlight

    7 years ago

    well tobe FRANK , how many times have you seen g c in your face the lastb 4 years.
    10 maybe 10 percent of the province female gender will vote liberal. but that 10 percent is 99 percent of the successful females in b.c.
    the guy is a waif, most good LEADERS are.
    personallly, i don,t care if it,s he, she or it, i think everyone deserve,s a fair chance, without influence,
    in closing, if the pope had the power of bush, this world of OURS ,,well you no.

  • Frank

    7 years ago

    bud, where do you get your stats from? Dreamland.com?

    If you and I could be non-political for a moment I'm sure you would agree that GC should have resigned over the drunk driving thing.

    So why would anyone vote for the guy?

  • billy pilgrim

    7 years ago

    isn't carol taylor about 200 years old? has she had surgical procedures or just a good old fashioned botox girl?

  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    Quote:
    For what its worth Coyote, I expect the NDP to be drowned out in this campaign.

    And you just may be proven entirely right, Frank, though I hope not. I am not so convinced of "the oppositions" chances, NDP or Green, even in an alliance, that I would very confidently argue this point with you right now.

    My own sense is that the new political and economic situation is still evolving and extremely fluid right now, and there is a great deal of broad public, small business and working class confusion about precisely what is happening within the economy and their lives right now. Like our brownshirt Bud correctly states, employment is relativly high right now. It is all very soft however, and at the level of the working class/consumer, wage cutbacks, de-unionization and the move of capitalism along a broad front to a minimum wage economy is sucking demand out of the economy.

    In my town which, is driving small businesses to the wall and growing numbers of folks towards partial reliance on foodbank assistance, and a struggle for adequate enough hours at minimum wages to try and maintain some reasonable net income levels.

    Folks politically, I think, are still needing to get their heads around the fact that capitalism has undergone a dramatic change from that form which existed and prospered for thirty years after WW2. There is a quiet desparation building though, and Neocon Lib policy is serving to drive the point home in a way, again I think, destined to have a dramatic impact on ordinary people's thinking in the future, and their old social, economic and political presumptions and loyalties to the system.

    Some additional time yet will tell us if I am right in this, but in the short run, here in this election period, the Fiberals and their corporate financial backers and front groups, are going to throw huge sums of money at this election-, indeed already are. The talk of Campbell during his visit here recently was all of a coming Golden Age of Prosperity, like a preacher playing the coming Kingdom of God theme-, which does tap into the hopes of hardpressed, even desparate folks of course. It is the serving up of the traditional opiate of the masses communion wafers of old time capitalist religion.

    Now, you may be right, and as I fear, that it is going to work one more time, with these large dollops of pork barrel cash and media coverage. On the other hand, it depends on how far along folks have come in their thinking-, and there really are moments in history when that can evolve quite rapidly, to the surprise of everyone.

    There is so little talk of politics going on amongst ordinary folks right now, I find, that it could signal almost anything. It is an almost eery silence, like either the calm before the storm, or equally as possible, another surrender to the propagandists persuasions to believe, believe brethern, that there will be pie in the sky when you die.

    Only politics is in the end a [/I]little[I] different from old time religion, in that there is the expectation of a piece of the pie in this life. The goods do have to be delivered sooner or later, in real time.

  • Frank

    7 years ago

    People generally are too busy trying to pay the bills to follow politics. That's unfortunate because it plays into the hands of those who offer simplistic solutions ad nauseum through their domination of the media and their wealth.

    But although I believe that the money given to the Liberals by business will allow them to dominate the message I think the NDP can still win. Just like the federal PCs had to spend like drunken sailors in order to mitigate the effects that Mulroney had on the electorate, the BC Libs have GC hanging around their necks.

    Therefore, hopefully, the NDP has enough money to at least get its message out when it counts, during the actual campaign. I'm one of those happy to see Carole follow the path she's walking for now because there's no way the NDP can match the Liberals financially in a 4 month long campaign. However, this can be demoralizing to those who want to see this gov't turfed from office in a mass display of resentment similar to 1789.

    So, its tough to sit and watch the lies and rewrites of history go on and on unchallenged. But hopefully, come voting day, Carole will have got her message out sufficiently to provide people with a voteable alternative to GC and another 4 years no one wants.

    As for what you say about the bigger picture, agreed. Win or lose, capitalism will still prevail in BC for now but its health is in question.

  • alexwh

    7 years ago

    Re Carole Taylor:

    I have photographed Carole Taylor for 24 years. No she is not 200 years old. She is simply one of the most striking natural beauty I have ever photographed. No botox and surgical procedures that I can see. The only beauty policy she has is that she changes her hair style regularly. Persons like Carole Taylor for me confirm that sometimes one does not have to necessarily vote for a party 100%. One can also vote for the person if one respects the person. There is no doubt in my mind that the next premier of this province after Gordon Campbell will be Carole Taylor.

  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    Quote:
    Therefore, hopefully, the NDP has enough money to at least get its message out when it counts, during the actual campaign.

    A good piece of analysis, well argued above, Frank. I sincerely hope you are right.

  • lynn

    7 years ago

    alexwh: I just think a truly beautiful and truly intelligent woman would never be caught dead running for a party being led by Gordon Campbell.

  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    Quote:
    I just think a truly beautiful and truly intelligent woman...

    There is, of course known to one and all, the male preoccupation with physical beauty, being the breeding animals we are wont to be, even if only in our fantasy lives, and Carole is a beauty in that context, no doubt. Intelligence is something that runs through the fingers more, like water, very often. Less tangible. Though it is not her intelligence I would disdain so much, as that particular set of class interests to which she chooses to apply it.

    One may want to touch, even bed a physical beauty, or even acknowledge her intellect, in a detached, objective sort of way-, but it is in the area of her strategic class interests and politics that I would clash with the woman, no differently than I do with The Wino. He clearly wants a pretty face for his campaign, and it is to that and the interests he represents that she is obviously willing to lend it, her looks and her reputed intelligence.

    I rather had the same attitude towards Trudeau as I do Carole. I conceded his intellect, even admired his "relative" nationalist daring in the face of The US Empire, and a grudging respect for that arrogant aristodratic haughty principledness he had. Nonetheless, I was always firmly opposed to that ruling class set of, how e're liberal, economic and political interests he served unwaveringly.

    Which I guess is all just another way of saying, at least in the heady days of my youth and sexual powers :-), I wouldn't kick her shoes out from under the bed, but lordy, lordy, the political fights would be withering. It'd have to be a one night stand only, of course-, which can be alright too. :-)

    But then, back on earth... that'd be about on a level with my other unattainable fantasy, Sophia Loren or/and (preferably "and") Yvette Mimeaux. :-) Just to further expose my age.

    Big fantasies don't cost anymore than little ones. :-)

  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    By the by, alex may be onto something about Carole being setup to replace Campbell. She would definitley be an asset in ensuring the succession. I can even see many a feminist even being drawn to the Liberal cause. And to say there are not feminists with ruling class ambitions, would be to fly in the face of the obvious.

    That reality is, fundamentally, why men have placed so much emphasis on materiality, and the accumulation of great quantitites of it. It's a chick magnet. :-)

  • alexwh

    7 years ago

    There are a few who remember much more than I do that Gordon Campbell was an aide to Art Phillips when he was the Vancouver mayor. I can only guess that there is some sort of payback time here. Should Gordon Campbell finally get into some scandalous hot water Carole Taylor will step in and she will be unbeatable. As for Yvette Mimeaux, she was the only reson one would suffer Rod Taylor in The Time Machine.

  • Banquos ghost

    7 years ago

    Mimieux, Mimieux. Not Mimeaux.

    If you will express adoration for a goddess you must use the correct name.

    Premier Taylor. Hhhhmmmmm...I can think of many worse possibilities.

  • alexwh

    7 years ago

    Consider that Carole Taylor's husband and ex mayor, Art Phillips was (now retired) one of the partners of the Vancouver investment firm Phillips-Hager & North. As far as I can see this is one of the few investment firms in Vancouver that has an envied reputation for honesty. I cannot recall Mayor Phillips being involved in any whiff of scandal. Politicians can shift to the left or to the right (even in office) but honesty in a politician is something that is not a given and when it is, it should be valued. I would suspect that besides beauty and intelligence Carole Taylor is honest. And I should add charming, too.

  • Frank

    7 years ago

    I don't see Ms Taylor as the attractive messiah of BC politics. I wouldn't vote for a party even if it had Gina Lollobrigidia, Bridget Bardot and Raquel Welch up for cabinet posts. As much as the Vancouver media would love to paint Carole as the face of the BC Libs the fact is that face is still GC and will be for the forseeable future if he wins this May. As for Ms Taylor herself I have no idea what she stands for besides love of political life.

  • lynn

    7 years ago

    Well, you could be right that Carole Taylor will be the next BC Liberal premier... in her speech the other night when she remarked with blindered charm: "Now that we have things in order in BC, we can move forward", Gordon Campbell couldn't have said it better himself.

    However, there is a serious threat emerging to her ever becoming premier, I have just heard that Yvette Mimieux is running for the NDP.

  • Coyote

    7 years ago

    Quote:
    ...I have just heard that Yvette Mimieux is running for the NDP.

    Now, don't be toying with my emotions this way. :-)

  • alexwh

    7 years ago

    I remember going to Victoria twice to photograph Bob Skelly who at the time was the head of the NDP. The first time was with Harvey Southam wha was the editor of the local business magazine Equity. I was present at the interview and I can vouch that a representative of the elite establishment (Harvey) was fair in his questions. Perhaps we weren't polarized yet. The second time I went to take pictures for Skelly's campaign. I remember his exquisite shark skin suits and how handsome he looked with the legislature dome behind the windows I used as backdrops. But there was an element missing which I could not put my finger on. It came to me in the ferry ride back. Skelly had no interior fire/passion. He seemed to be making the motions of being the oposition.

    Having photographed Carole James I can vouch that there is lots of passion behind her jet black eyes.

  • dearpremier.ca

    7 years ago

    commentor budlight posted: 04-02-2005
    "in closing, if the pope had the power of bush, this world of OURS ,,well you no."

    Jean Binette writes: Budlight, Have you ever heard of the "Crusades"?

  • The punisher

    7 years ago

    alexwh: Having photographed Carole James I can vouch that there is lots of "passion" behind her jet black eyes.

    Ok Alex, she's horny! - So what?

  • Sugar

    7 years ago

    Coyote:
    With respect to the comment on Mrs. Campbell and her virtually invisible profile over the past year, I have heard from different sources that insist Adolf Campbell has a serious girlfriend. One insists that she is in Hawaii and others say they meet there. (Notice when Gordo got busted in Maui, he was there by himself for a week after his wife left - - Oh ya happens all the time).

    Another source said he was spotted with his "lovely niece" in New York as well when Campbell was on his "I am great Tour".

  • budlight

    7 years ago

    tell me sugar, if you were a fly on the wall, what would you think.
    your grasping at fantasy,,
    sweet dreams,,

  • budlight

    7 years ago

    thanks for the question jean binette,as an[educated catholic] last saturday was different, the first time in many years were i felt some form of conn..

    but today, i feel , more, well rounded..

    organized religon is for people ,afraid of hell,
    spirituality is for people that have been there.
    ikeep my own faith, in my soul.

    bless you....

  • Marysue

    7 years ago

    I had to write! Budlight just said spoke the most moronic marketplace myth going---that base-rate workers --if they are good--will advance up the payscale to a decent, good wage! As if how much money a person gets is anywhere near reflective of how hard he/she worked! HAAAAAA! Don't we wish! That would be justice and wonderfully fair. If that myth were true, Campbell would be in a soup kitchen line up (along with his naive damsel)and the workers in old age homes would be billionaires. His Lardship and lovely wife Barbaric Email would be in a homeless shelter. Short order cooks would have cottages at Whistler and ski every day off. Life would be good, fair and just!

    And Budlight overconsumers...well...they tend not to think too deeply. Just soufflee neoconvenience thoughts.

    Alas, life is not fair... If you're not in a union, the chances are you will be bilked wages by your boss sooner or later. God help you if you want to retire! No benefits, and no pension!

    Budlight, you've been lucky. Luckier than you deserve, considering your lack of compassion and understanding for others less fortunate than yourself.

    I will be voting NDP, despite the strategists' say-nothing timidity, despite the corporate media's castigation of all things remotely Left. Not that the NDP is Left, but it is more so than the Greens and other Conselfseriberalliance groups. These Fiberal fatuous bums in office have sold enough of my shares in my own province's assets to make me hate them with every fibre of my being. They have been cruel to the poor and arrogant to the rest of us, giving themselves HUGE taxbreaks. May they have their coronaries in front of one of their closed hospitals.

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