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Liberals Bluffing on By-Election

They tell us it won't mean much if they lose Surrey. History says otherwise.

Will McMartin 19 Oct 2004TheTyee.ca
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Listening to the spin by Premier Gordon Campbell and his team, we shouldn't take much notice if the B.C. Liberals lose the upcoming by-election in Surrey-Panorama Ridge. After all, we've been told, sitting governments almost never win by-elections, so don't read the outcome of this one as some kind of referendum on how vulnerable the Liberals may be come May's general election.


The corollary, we also hear, is that a Liberal win in the by-election would represent clear public support for the government and its policies. It would confirm the electorate's continuing rejection of the New Democratic Party.


As Gordon Campbell might say: 'Heads, we win; tails, they lose.'


Well, not so fast.


The notion that B.C. governments unfailingly suffer defeat in mid-term elections ignores a key determinant. That is, whether the by-election riding, in the preceding general election, returned a government MLA or a member of the Opposition.


That is a vital distinction. Of the last 25 B.C. by-elections, a whopping 17 took place in electoral districts held by the Opposition. The governing party's record in these altercations was a dismal 0-17.


Why Liberals have a shot


This seems logical; after all, why would voters who in the last general election rejected the governing or winning party soon afterward do an about-face and embrace that same party? Indeed, the last time this occurred in B.C. was way back in 1955, and before that, in 1937.


Just eight of the last 25 by-elections were in government-held ridings, and here the governing party enjoyed a modest two victories: Cariboo in 1966, and Kamloops in 1981. Put another way, the only by-election wins by a B.C. government since the mid-1960s were in ridings it had won in the preceding general election. Again, this does not seem surprising; a government should enjoy better by-election odds in a riding it earlier had captured, compared to one it had lost.
It therefore would be more accurate to say of B.C. by-elections that governments have little hope for victory in Opposition-held ridings, but are quite competitive in districts they won previously.


A myth grows


How did the misconception that "governments always lose by-elections" gain common currency in B.C.? Part of the answer is that the last by-election triumph for a government was 23 years ago, in 1981. For most British Columbians, the Social Credit win in Kamloops is long-forgotten, or a distant memory at best.


As well, since that date, B.C.'s governing parties have suffered 14 consecutive by-election defeats. To casual observers, it just seems like governments always lose mid-term contests.


Two points reveal why the parties in power have enjoyed little by-election success over the last two decades. First, the Social Credit governments from 1975 to 1991 grew increasingly unpopular over time, especially after premier Bill Bennett implemented his 'restraint' policies, and later as his successor, Bill Vander Zalm, became mired in personal scandal.


Following its 1981 victory in Kamloops, the Bennett government lost a pair by-elections on November 8, 1984. Defeat was a foregone conclusion in the NDP bastion of Vancouver East, but the loss in Okanagan North -- which had faithfully returned Socred MLAs in every general election since 1952 -- signaled the electorate's growing disenchantment with Bennett and the government. Eighteen months later, the premier unexpectedly announced he was quitting politics.


Zalm got slammed


Vander Zalm, aided by pre-election gerrymandering, his own toothy charisma and NDP leader Bob Skelly's bungled campaign launch, led Social Credit to a sizeable legislative majority in 1986. But his popularity proved short-lived, as evidenced by six straight by-election setbacks in 1988 and 1989.


Again, Socred losses in the New Democratic Party fortresses of Nanaimo and Alberni had minimal impact on the governing party. But NDP upsets in such right-wing strongholds as Boundary-Similkameen, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Vancouver-Point Grey and Cariboo, deeply worried the Social Credit caucus and party regulars. Cabinet resignations, caucus defections and a lengthy party insurrection ended only when Vander Zalm was evicted from the premier's office in the spring of 1991. By then it was too late to save Social Credit, which was humiliated later that year with a third-place finish in the general election, behind the victorious New Democratic Party and the runner-up Liberals.


The second point is somewhat surprising: while the NDP was in power between 1991 and 2001, not a single by-election was conducted in a government-held riding. The decade saw six mid-term battles, but all were in districts represented by an Opposition MLA.


Moreover, five of the by-elections were in ridings -- Matsqui, Vancouver-Quilchena, Abbotsford, Surrey-White Rock and Delta South -- historically antipathetic to the New Democrats. Just Parksville-Qualicum -- which NDP MLA Leonard Krog won in 1991 with a slim 40.2 percent of the vote, and lost five years later with 39.7 percent -- could be considered a 'swing' seat. It was no surprise when the governing New Democrats lost all six contests, most by wide margins.


Stakes are huge


To conclude, B.C. governments repeatedly lose by-elections in ridings which last elected an Opposition MLA, but enjoy moderate success in districts last-won by the government. The long string of mid-term losses for governments in the 1980s and 1990s is explained by Social Credit's unpopularity and the NDP contesting only Opposition-held districts.


Which brings us to the current by-election. Surrey-Panorama Ridge is a government-held seat, having been won in 2001 by Gulzar Cheema, a B.C. Liberal, who resigned to contest the 2004 federal general election. Far from facing a near-hopeless situation as suggested by Gordon Campbell, the by-election is likely to be a tightly-fought contest between the B.C. Liberals and the Opposition NDP.


Victory for either party means little in the way of standings in the legislature, but defeat could portend serious difficulties for the loser over the months leading to next May's general election. For the B.C. Liberals, a loss likely would raise new questions about Campbell's rock-bottom popularity, and the rising mistrust and unhappiness voiced by many female voters. For the New Democrats, failure to make a breakthrough in a 'swing' Surrey constituency would raise doubts about their ability -- and that of rookie leader Carole James -- to defeat the Campbell government six months from now.

The stakes are high for both the B.C. Liberals and the NDP, as well as for Adrienne Carr, leader of the B.C. Greens. Her decision to contest the Surrey-Panorama Ridge by-election will either prove to be a stroke of genius or a mind-numbing miscalculation. Regardless of who wins, the outcome could be historic.


Will McMartin, a former Socred advisor, is a veteran political consultant and published the BC Politics & Policy newsletter. McMartin is a regular on CBC Radio's "Early Edition" and writes a regular column for The Tyee.  [Tyee]

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