Why James Isn't Running in Surrey

Rookie NDP leader Carole James dithered for more than three weeks this past spring over whether she should personally contest the Surrey-Panorama Ridge by-election, now scheduled for October 28. The seat became vacant after B.C. Liberal cabinet minister, Gulzar Cheema, announced in March his intention to run (unsuccessfully, it turned out) in the 2004 federal general election. After an agonizing period of indecision, all the while taunted by B.C. Liberal MLAs urging her to take the plunge, the rookie NDP leader finally -- and correctly -- opted to stay on the sidelines.

It should have been a quick no-brainer for James and her political advisors, and their lengthy bout of hand-wringing and public opinion polling (polling!) ought to alarm British Columbians hoping for Premier Gordon Campbell’s defeat in May 2005. Simply, do James and the NDP have the political smarts needed to topple a sitting government?

To start, neither James nor the New Democrats could afford her personal defeat in a by-election. History shows that a major party leader losing a mid-term election is mortally wounded, and their party’s fortunes subsequently damaged. (This does not include fringe or minor party leaders, who run purely for recognition. To wit: BC Green Party leader Adriane Carr has thrown her hat into the Surrey-Panorama Ridge by-election ring.)

History’s clear lessons

By-election losses by major party leaders, not surprisingly, are rare in Canadian politics. The last such defeat on the federal scene occurred in June 1944 when Arthur Meighen, the Conservative leader and a former prime minister, finished second in the Ontario riding of York South behind a little-known CCF candidate, Joseph Noseworthy. The loss ended Meighen’s lengthy career in politics, and the demoralized Tories remained in opposition for more than a decade.

Just two B.C. major party leaders have suffered by-election setbacks over the last half-century. Arthur Laing, head of the provincial Liberals, lost his Vancouver-Point Grey seat in the 1956 general election and attempted a by-election comeback the following year in Burnaby. He finished third and quit provincial politics. The Liberals struggled on the opposition benches in B.C. with a handful of MLAs until 1979, after which they were shut out of the legislature until 1991.

In 1994, Social Credit doyenne Grace McCarthy attempted to revive her party’s flagging fortunes by parachuting into Matsqui, made available through the willing resignation of the sitting Socred MLA. But she finished 42 votes behind Liberal Mike De Jong, and in short order three Social Credit MLAs bolted the caucus to sit as Reform representatives. McCarthy soon retired from public life, and the once-mighty Socred party disappeared from the legislature following the 1996 general election.

Playing it safe

The lesson is clear: a major party leader seeking a parliamentary or legislative seat in a by-election must do so in a riding which is ‘safe,’ where victory is a near certainty.

There have been several examples of this strategem in recent decades. Brian Mulroney in 1983 was the newly-elected leader of the Progressive Conservative party but without a seat in the House of Commons. Elmer MacKay, a Nova Scotia Tory with a solid seat resigned to allow Mulroney to coast to an easy win in Central Nova, and eventually become prime minister.

Similarly, Jean Chretien returned to public life in 1990 as leader of the Liberal party. He accepted the resignation of a New Brunswick MP, Fernand Robichaud, to run in a riding held by the Grits for more than four decades. Chretien rolled to victory in Beausejour, and the rest is history.

In British Columbia, Gordon Campbell sought to enter the legislature following his 1993 election as BC Liberal leader. Art Cowie, MLA for Vancouver-Quilchena, resigned and accepted a party sinecure so Campbell could contest the by-election, which he won with an impressive 68 percent of the vote. Two years later he moved to Vancouver-Point Grey, location of the Campbell family home, and in 2001 became premier.

To repeat, a by-election loss is fatal for the head of a major political party. The leader in need of a legislative or parliamentary seat, therefore, must seek a by-election victory in a ‘safe’ riding. Surrey-Panorama Ridge, which Cheema and the B.C. Liberals handily captured in 2001, is anything but safe for the New Democrats.

Surrey's pocketbook voters

The number of legislative seats in fast-growing Surrey has increased over the past two decades from two, to three, then five, and now seven. Although the Liberals took every riding in the last election, the north-west part of the city historically has favoured left-of-centre (NDP) representatives, while the south has returned right-wing (Social Credit and Liberal) MLAs.

The reason is straightforward: Surrey’s northwest neighbourhoods (Whalley, Guildford) have lower-than-average personal, family and household incomes, while the southern region (White Rock, Cloverdale) enjoy higher-than-average incomes. Like British Columbians generally, Surrey residents tend to vote with their pocketbooks.

The chart below neatly illustrates that while the Liberals captured all of Surrey’s seats in 2001, their share of the popular vote decreased in each riding in proportion with average family income. In Surrey-White Rock, where Liberal Gordon Hogg captured nearly 69 percent of the popular vote, the average family income is over $83,000 per year. But in Surrey-Whalley, where annual family income is less than two-thirds that of White Rock, Elaine Brenzinger eked out a Liberal victory with less than 42 percent of the vote. Geographically, financially and electorally, Surrey-Panorama Ridge is in the middle.

Average family income and Liberal popular vote in Surrey

Surrey-White Rock	$83,171	68.7%
Surrey-Cloverdale	$81,234	63.7%
Surrey-Tynehead	$70,212	61.0%
Surrey-Panorama Ridge	$60,448	$58.9%
Surrey-Newton	$54,875	50.0%
Surrey-Green Timbers	$51,098	49.0%
Surrey-Whalley	$50,269	41.8%
(Sources: Stats BC and Elections BC)

Interestingly, Cheema’s share of the popular vote in Surrey-Panorama Ridge was nearly identical to the BC Liberals’ province-wide average of 57.6 percent. With the government now polling at about the 40 percent mark, the riding may be considered a ‘swing’ seat, and probably will be targeted as winnable in 2005 by both the government and the opposition New Democrats.

But it is far from ‘safe’ for the NDP, and party leader James should have given no more than a moment’s consideration to contesting the by-election.

Brar a smart choice

There is yet another consideration. Were James to run in the Surrey-Panorama Ridge by-election, her leadership and the New Democratic Party’s period in government between 1991 and 2001 likely would have been a major campaign issue. In other words, the by-election might have become a referendum on James’s attributes as party leader and the NDP record, a scenario likely unfavourable to the New Democrats.

On the other hand, by nominating Jagrup Brar, a relatively-unknown local resident, the NDP has an excellent opportunity to turn the by-election into a referendum on Gordon Campbell and the B.C. Liberals’ record in government. And on that question, the NDP has a very good chance of being successful. A by-election victory in Panorama Ridge would give the New Democrats solid momentum leading up to the provincial general election scheduled for May 2005.

Modern politics does not lend itself either to indecision or lengthy contemplation. This is especially true in B.C., where election campaigns are conducted over a short 28-day period. Moreover, the advent of 24-hour-a-day news media and the internet has given rise to campaign ‘war rooms’ and ‘rapid response’ strategies to ensure that every misstep by an opponent is immediately identified and high-lighted, while negative stories are quickly countered and deflected.

In dithering for nearly a month over the simple question of whether she should personally contest the Surrey-Panorama Ridge by-election, Carole James revealed a woeful lack of political acumen. In the end she made the correct choice, but those who hope to defeat the B.C. Liberal government should be discomfited by her manifest inexperience.

Will McMartin will contribute a regular column on B.C. politics to The Tyee.