Opinion

New Ways to Measure Our Progress

Seven indicators for Cascadia yield a clearer picture of what we are doing right, and wrong, in this province.

By Alan Durning, 10 Mar 2004, TheTyee.ca

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Over the past century, Cascadia--the region encompassing British Columbia, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and western Montana--has changed dramatically. Cascadians have multiplied their number ninefold, added three decades to their lives, and increased their economic output thirtyfold. Their cities and farms have spread across the region's most fertile lowlands. Their clearcuts, dams, ranches, and roads have transformed much of the remaining landscape.

These changes--you could call them "slow news"--are extreme over decades but almost imperceptible day to day. Yet they shape the region's future more profoundly than fleeting, headline-grabbing events. But such long-term trends are poorly tracked. To fill this gap Northwest Environment Watch (NEW) has spent months researching the Cascadia Scorecard (PDF link), a new regional gauge of progress that monitors and compares seven trends (PDF link) critical to the region's future: health, economy, population, sprawl, energy, forests, and pollution.

Today we unveil our results for British Columbia. The province boasts the second longest lifespan in the world and is a regional model for smart growth, but lags significantly in economic security for its residents. Some specifics:

Health

  • Lifespans are relatively long throughout the Northwest--averaging 80.7 years in BC and 78.9 in the Northwest as a whole. BC boasts the Pacific Northwest's longest lifespan, and if BC were an independent nation, it would have the second longest life expectancy in the world, trailing only Japan.
  • In BC, 15-to-24 year olds are only half as likely to perish in an accident as their Washington counterparts. Suicides are nearly three times more common in Washington than in BC; dying of homicide, about four times more likely. Later in life, British Columbians are far less prone to die of heart disease and slightly less likely to fall victim to cancer than other northwesterners.

Economy

  • British Columbia has seen rising poverty from 1990 to 2002 (14.7 to 17 percent) while Canada's poverty rate fell to 14.4 in 2002. Since 1999 the province's poverty rates have exceeded the national average.
  • For most of the 1990s, B.C. enjoyed lower-than-national jobless rates. But beginning in 1998, B.C. unemployment exceeded the Canadian rate, and by 2002, the unemployment rate--at 7.9 percent--was higher than that of any American state.
  • British Columbia also lost its lead in median income: While Canada's inflation-adjusted median income registered no net growth from 1990 to 2001, British Columbia's shrank by more than 4 percent. In 2001, B.C.'s median income was Can$38,600, about Can$1,000 lower than in Canada.

Population

  • The province's birthrate declined to a record low of 9.7 in 2002--below the Canadian level of 11 and in the range of such stable-population countries as Germany, Italy, and Japan. The rest of the Pacific Northwest lags behind B.C., but still claims birthrates below the U.S. average.
  • Teen birthrates in British Columbia are the lowest in the region by far, at 13 births per 1,000 teenage women in 2002, compared to Washington at 33--almost three times the BC rate.
  • British Columbia has far fewer accidental pregnancies than the Northwest states, and women in BC tend to delay childbirth--births to women in their 30s are likely soon to exceed births to women in their 20s, and births to women in their 40s may soon overtake births to teens.

Energy

  • British Columbia's per capita gasoline use has recently increased to 20.9 liters a week in 2002; Germans and Britons use less than half as much gasoline per person. But residents of the Northwest states still use fully 57 percent more gasoline per person than British Columbians, in part due to a larger road network. Per resident, Washington has a quarter more miles of streets and highways than BC, Oregon has two-thirds more, and Idaho has three times more.
  • The province's more limited use of automobiles saves British Columbians a bundle; they put less than half as much money per capita into roadwork as their counterparts in the Northwest states and, despite 10 percent higher gasoline prices, their annual fuel bills are at least 25 percent lower.
  • B.C.'s non-industrial electricity use has also climbed since 1990, but residents are still consuming less electricity than residents of the Northwest states and also less than Canadians and Americans overall.

Sprawl

  • Greater Victoria, with one in three residents living in compact neighbourhoods, has controlled sprawl better than any other Northwest metropolis except Vancouver. Victoria has roughly the same population as Boise, Idaho, but five times as many residents living at densities greater than 12 people per acre. Still, its success is limited: over the past decade, it has gained slightly more residents at sprawling densities than in compact neighbourhoods. Click here to see how population density has increased over time in the Victoria area.
  • In 2001, more than six in ten residents of greater Vancouver lived in compact neighborhoods, almost twice as large a share as in any other Northwest metropolis. However, Vancouver's overall urban density still ranks below that of eastern Canadian cities such as Montreal and Toronto, and it has done a poor job of creating new jobs near housing centers. Click here to see how population density has increased over time in the Vancouver area.

Forests

  • The Scorecard uses NASA satellite images to study clearcutting over the last 30 years in five study areas in the Northwest, including two contiguous areas in the BC interior. Although one-tenth of the forests in the two study areas combined are protected from logging, more than 2.5 million acres (1 million hectares) have been clearcut since 1976, almost one-fifth of the original total, mostly in areas managed by the provincial government. Logging in B.C. is almost exclusively in virgin forest, which is richer in native biodiversity.
  • Cutting in the two B.C. study areas was most rapid in the 1970s and 1980s. The rate of cutting slowed during the 1990s but appears to have surged again since 2000. The BC interior also contains what is reputedly the world's largest clearcut, the Bowron Cut.
  • To view an animated map of clearcutting over time in B.C.'s inland rainforest click here, and for clearcutting over time in the Williams Lake region, click here.

Pollution

  • The Cascadia Scorecard monitors concentrations of toxic substances in the bodies of northwesterners, measured through sampling of breast milk among new mothers.  Full results for this indicator will be released later this year, but initial results for the Puget Sound area are worrisome. Mothers there had high levels of certain flame retardants in their breast milk, levels 20 to 40 times as high as is prevalent in Japan and Europe.

Tracking the big picture

For B.C. and its region, what's the big picture? To see how B.C. compares with other members of Cascadia, as measured by our seven indicators, click here (PDF link).

Overall, four of the indicators offer good news. Cascadia shines in human health--the region's lifespan ranks eighth in the world. Its economic security and birthrates are also good, by world standards. Clearcutting has decelerated, though it remains rapid.

But there are many areas for improvement. The two biggest priorities are controlling sprawl and energy consumption: despite a well-deserved reputation for innovation in energy efficiency, northwesterners still consume almost like Texans. And though they are building communities that are more compact, sprawl is still the region's dominant pattern of growth. Unintended pregnancies and births to teens remain commonplace. And northwesterners' economic security did not keep pace with North America overall.
 
The Scorecard presents an experimental, three-step method for combining the indicators into a unified index that marks how far away the region is from reaching a real-world goal for each indicator. Japan, for example, is the target for lifespan. Vancouver, B.C.'ers are a best-in-the-region model for sprawl. Germany suggests a goal for energy use.

Thousands of people in this region are already at work on a future in which Cascadia leads the world, in which the Pacific Northwest achieves the elusive goal of reconciling people with place. Our newly published book Cascadia Scorecard points to several priorities. To yield dramatic improvements in energy and sprawl will require approaches that are systemic, such as tax shifting; redirecting markets to promote sustainability; and--as a foundation--better monitoring of the region's progress through projects like The Scorecard.
 
What we watch, we change. Attending mostly to the dramatic, we neglect the slow. Monitoring flawed gauges such as stock prices, consumer confidence, and gross domestic product, we organize our institutions to generate high stock prices, confident consumers, and an increasing GDP. Conversely, because we do not watch them, we do not get the healthiest lives, the strongest communities, or the most vibrant ecosystems. The ultimate aspiration of The Cascadia Scorecard is to give us these things.

Alan Durning is Director of Northwest Environment Watch, a Seattle-based nonprofit research and communication center. The Cascadia Scorecard will be updated regularly both in publications and at www.cascadiascorecard.org  [Tyee]

17  Comments:

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  • allan (not verified)

    7 years ago

    While comparing ourselves with the northwest sector of the new Roman Empire wouldn't be my first choice as a measure of how BC is performing, I still find Alan Durning's article quite interesting and informative. The maps and graphs are a true bonus for readers in highlighting the impact of human population growth as well as the continuing dependancy and the dangers of resource extraction (clearcutting)that isn't based on anything but quick profit. While BC residents appear to come out ahead on a few scores such as urban sprawl, teen pregnancies and lower amounts of paved roads per resident to maintain, repair and be taxed for, poverty, especially among the young, says a lot about our supposedly superior social safety net here in BC. The graphs clearly suggests that like many things we often smuggly ridicule American culture for, it's only a matter of time until we too buy in. While it's nice to see we almost rival Japan in average lifespan, there is little comfort in being compared with Emperor Dubya's home state in wasting non-renewable energy.

  • Crawford Kilian (not verified)

    7 years ago

    Great story, of interest as much for its use of hypertext as for the fascinating data! I've mentioned it, with a link, in my blog Writing for the Web (http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/).

  • Earnest Canuck (not verified)

    7 years ago

    Here's the problem: there *is* no bloody "Cascadia," never has been (and never will be, should I have anything to say about it). Look, most of the statistics bandied about here just show what a profound disjunction in culture, beliefs and values -- what used to be called "way of life" -- lies between these two *nations,* and not just between various jurisdictions in an arbitrarily-designated "region." I really question whether reports like this are in any way useful; after all, political energy in Canadian is obviously going to be put to use to solve *our* problems, not those of foreigners. And we may safely assume the Americans will do the same. This is as it should be. Co-operation across the border should (and likely will) be restricted to the maintenance of a peaceful trading relationship. There's no need for the sort of hands-across-the-49th internationalism this N.E.W outfit seems to be promoting, any more than we need border-erasing globalizationists trying to erase obvious and profound differences between peoples in order to sell 'em stuff. Geez. Also (just in case you're not already convinced I'm a crank): even the most diehard continentalist, looking at a map of the landmass we share, would have to admit the "Pacific Northwest" corner of the continent actually starts somewhere around the Alaska panhandle. Maybe Mr Durning lives in the "Pacific Northwest" of *his* country; I live in the southwest corner of mine, aka the Lower Mainland.

  • KWD (not verified)

    7 years ago

    Although the Cascadia Scorecard may provide lots of interesting and, for some, “fascinating data” as it examines change in “health, economy, population, sprawl, energy, forests, and pollution” it misses examining one very critical element: Public understanding of the practices and problems associated with the ‘seven trends’ is significantly altered by an ever-increasing tendency to accept worsening environmental conditions as ‘normal’. So rather than yielding “a clearer picture of what we are doing right, and wrong, in this province”, the Scorecard is simply an inventory of what we are doing. If the critical seven were measured and indexed against changes in public perception the results would have far more meaning and impact. And it may be revealed that the specifics of the critical seven are simply artifacts spun off from an inability to measure real differences in environmental destruction - “slow news” - around the globe. In Cascadia's case it’s just a matter of time, as Jared Diamond in "Guns, Germs and Steel" says, before we have the answer to Yali’s question.

  • FMaxwell (not verified)

    7 years ago

    Interesting....the median income is $38.6?? Kudos to the low teeange birthrates (13 out of 1000- impressive!) as compared to Washington- I bet our more liberal ideas on birth control (easier/cheaper access/better education??) here in Canada have something to do with that. And VERY interesting that births to women in their 30's will soon exceed births to women in their 20's, and births to women in their 40's will exceed the teenage pregnancy rate...now with a little overall attitude adjustment on this isssue (females and males alike)- we might actually be finally getting it together!

  • Jerry (not verified)

    7 years ago

    Though I find a certain degree of common thinking with Earnest Canadian here, with a profound distrust of this "continental view of the world", in its current motivations, I'm no real flaming nationalist either. I think a world community likely is really evolving, and for the better. Out there in space and time somewhere, I even suspect, post U.S. Imperialism and the self-serving arrogance that goes with that at present, a converging future is in the cards, along with the rest of the Hemisphere. Which is about as far ahead as I can see, I think. What most stands in the way of that is an overwhelming inequity in people to people relations, between "us" and "them", with the huge sucking sound coming from that open maw south of the border. They don't really give a fiddler's fuck about us folks. As a state and an "economic way of life", its our resources they have their eye on, same as they do in Iraq and Afghanistan. So get it in perspective. Outside of that, spinning completely off into space, while these older ladies are counting eggs in withering fillopian tubes, and the older males checking to see if their little spermies still have any tails, and getting each other together through sterile pipettes, petrie dishes and "new surgery techniques", me and my old lady shagged ourselves silly like little rabbits as teenagers, and did it the old fashioned "fun" way. Now, our kids have been long gone, we've a little herd of grandchildren coming up, and we're still "relatively" young and able to enjoy life. Which is still alright for you "modern androgynous ladies" of course, I appreciate; you have another kind of fun, I guess, while your womb turns to a prune, and then, when the "suppressed" and panicking spirit finally moves you, just call on science. Interesting, to be sure. The new "androgynous" woman brings us the new reproductive future in a petrie dish. All that said, even though capitalism's own solution to cheap labour supply and the need for an ever expanding consumer market base is to simply bring in a steady stream of immigrants, changing the face and colour scheme of the nation, which I enjoy as well, there is likely still, from the perspective of the health of the natural environment, a need for reduced human populations everywhere, including here. So I don't really find the new reproductive trends a negative in overall regards, and far better socially over the long haul, I think, that the actual "breeding herd" be left to those "non-misogynous" and "non-misandrous" male and female human critters that actually still like each other and enjoy the "jiggy-jig" old fashioned methodology of "maintaining the numerical well-being" of the overall herd. In cattle raising, of course, we culled out those unsuitable for the breeding herd in our own ways, and to our own criteria. Nature has its own way of culling, that achieves a different but similar result in the end. And I'm still a great, adoring fan of Mother Nature. And I do still live in the Pacific Southwest. (Well, actually another part of the province, but you get the idea.) I'm a Canadian. (For all you Americanized Canadians.)

  • Jerry (not verified)

    7 years ago

    "So I don't really find the new reproductive trends a negative in overall regards, and far better socially...", to which I would only add, "....better socially and biologically... " :) Regards.

  • Fiona Maxwell (not verified)

    7 years ago

    Jerry- you are soooo out of line on that above one, I have to gather my thoughts before I answer...."modern adrogynous ladies"??- "while your womb turns to a prune"???????!!!! and, "'suppressed' and panicking spirit finally moves you"?? Who in god's name do you think you are? You perpetuate sereotypes that are disgusting and rude. Get a grip on life Jerry- and NOONE who reads these wants to hear about your lovemaking, thank you very much! You are apparently the suppressed and withering one here as you spend FAR too much time spewing your opinions and insulting people. Here we go again...

  • Fiona Maxwell (not verified)

    7 years ago

    Jer- let me get this straight; a modern woman, because she has more choices than her mother or grandmother had, is androgynous according to you? (man, I was so angry look at all my spelling errors in that last message!)...I should just ignore your postings, shouldn't I?

  • Jerry (not verified)

    7 years ago

    Used to males who don't argue back, are we? :) You get your wish. I'm busy today. But no, I certainly don't begrudge women their choices. We all make them.

  • Shirin (not verified)

    7 years ago

    I fear the report on BC'ers livelihoods may take a turn for the worse once our current reign of terror (ie the Provincial "Liberals") have run their course - and, indeed, have started running on coal and off-shore oil. We will see mother's milk - and not to mention our cow's milk - full of funky toxins from widespread unregulated use of pollutants and munching on toxic farmed fish. Poverty rates will go up as cuts to social programs increase and cost of education is beyond the reach of the middle-class citizens. I fear the hear-of gold Canucky has hit the nail on the head - meeting the needs of fire-friendly south of the 49th parallel energy requirements will be something gordo is dying to do. It is interesting that the fact that Vancouver has the largest vegetarian population in N. America didn't factor in to the long life and low cancer rates. But that would be bad for the meat industry (aside from the Pickton farm).

  • Jerry (not verified)

    7 years ago

    Just time for a quick comment, Shirin. Yes, the gist of what you say is essentially correct, I think. We are just at the beginning of this whole degraded "food business" thing, which ties into a whole bunch of other issue; growing over-population, and in a socio-economic environment where "everything" is measured by "narrowly dollar profitability" and usefulness to the prevailing neoconservative mindset of the Liberals and the "new/old" Conservatives. The new Neoconservativism of the social order, geopolitically and at home, is evolving a whole new level of crisis for capitalist values and sensibilities. The overwhelming, pressing need is for an in depth re-evaluation of a whole lot of assumptions abouts society and its economy, which most of us took in with that toxic mother's milk of which you spoke. :) The essential question being, of course, has the prevailing social order finally arrived at the outer limits of its potential?

  • Shirin (not verified)

    7 years ago

    Great question, Jerry - and in my humble opinion - we are no where near our potential. In fact, we are regressing in terms of moving towards actualizing our potential because of the social order we have assumed under the capitalist system we currently adhere to. Retrospection analysis would likely reveal that what is good for business is not necessarily good for the long-term well-being of society. From war to poverty to the ruin and exploitation of our environment has all had its beginning at the mercy of prioritizing for the subjective worth of the mighty dollar. We definitely have to have a long hard look at what our priorities are and make our decisions accordingly. Those of us that have not been nursed by our mothers in the last 15 to 20 years probably had less of the toxic compounds that have accumulated recently - and the insidious side effects (autoimmune disorders, neurological disorders inclusive of depression and ADHD to susceptibility to chemical imbalances and cancer) would unlikely be uncorrelated with the cumulative effects of the build-up of environmental pollutants and toxins. - And given that most major studies are funded by industry - don't hold your breath for someone to actually go out to determine if this is the case. My question is - Will we be driven to self-destruction due to our unhindered gluttony - or will the awakening consciousness of the few who aren't passive in disposition be enough to wake up the collective conscience and retrace our steps to real civilization - one in which the person holds more value than the God of the Fraser Insititute - the Mighty Dollar.

  • KWD (not verified)

    7 years ago

    Hmmm. “Subjective worth”, “subjectively determined”. Bang on. But don’t stop there Shirin; tell us where the subjectiveness comes from. How do we determine these subjective criteria? Is it possible that the subjective value of the dollar is just an intermediary step employed by our well-trained thought process that links our basic survival mechanism – avoid pain, seek pleasure – to our individual perceptions of reality? If the subjective criteria we use are artifacts spun from the judgments we are trained to believe are real, and that we use to define the world around us, then we need to examine the way we think. Judgments in themselves have no value; they are inert. We react to judgments – the value of the dollar, good, bad, right, wrong, self-worth, gluttony, pride, etc, etc – in ways that we have been trained to react. We weren’t born understanding of these concepts. And, just as the laws of physics apply universally, our trained responses to pain and pleasure are at the heart of all judgmental thinking. However, don’t hold your breath while waiting for the great institutions of the world –religious, secular or otherwise – to expose the fallacies in their distortional thinking.

  • Gilles Champagne (not verified)

    7 years ago

    “….(Donella) Meadows says that the major way to change a system—the one with the most leverage, is to change the over-all mindset or paradigm out of which the system arises”…., “The paradigms are the sources of systems, from them come goals, information flows, and feedbacks. She says that "People who manage to intervene in systems at the level of paradigm hit a leverage point that totally transforms systems. . . All it takes is a click in the mind, a new way of seeing." To create this new way of seeing, she says "you keep pointing at the anomalies and failures of the old paradigm, you come yourself, loudly, with assurance, from the new one, you insert people with the new paradigm in places of public visibility and power. You don’t waste time with reactionaries; rather you work with active change agents and with the vast middle ground of people who are open-minded." Thanks to NEW, Alan Durning and others who understand and are creating an awareness that will result in a paradigm shift, although in this case more of "flip" than a lateral shift. Mark Anielski here in Canada is also using new "metrics" to show how we are performing.

  • sammie (not verified)

    7 years ago

    well...british comumbia is a beautiful place and it should be treated very well....the logging industry should be fairly good because there a alot of trees out there...don't waste them...use them for emergancys...the animals need them to!!!

  • sammie lol (not verified)

    7 years ago

    k first of all this is a beautiful province and u should treat it that way...everyone comes to visit cuz of its nature...you must treat it like its an actual province...Don't waste your lumber...come on we need lumber if your going to waste it give it to us...use it for something important or leave it for the animals that proably need it the most for their wounderful homes whic hthey need!!!Be nice to your wood!!!DONT WASTE IT!!!do what you mean not what you are told to do!!be nice save our nature!!!and beauty!!!

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