Opinion

Why Canada Needs a Foresight Party

Tired of bandaid politics? Imagine a party that puts proactivity first.

By Crawford Kilian, 9 Aug 2011, TheTyee.ca

A vote for change

If a Foresight Party existed, how would you vote?

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Since the May election, we've heard plenty of speculation on how the various parties might change over the next four years. Can the Liberals rebuild, and into what -- the Liberal Party of 1968? Will the NDP morph into a bilingual social-democratic party with its centre of gravity in Quebec? Will the Conservatives take their 40 per cent "majority" to the centre, or swing sharply to the right?

It really doesn't matter. All parties in modern democracies operate from one unquestioned but fatal premise: everything's going to stay the same. Politics is all about who gets how a big a slice of the status-quo pie.

If something unusual happens, like a hurricane or a major earthquake, the party in power will come up with some ad hoc response that will get it through to the next election without losing too many votes. Then we can all go back to fighting over the pie.

Public pressure for long-term disaster planning is almost nonexistent. Many of us don't even plan for our own retirement, let alone worry about our country's future.

That's why we continue to ignore climate change; it hasn't really hurt us yet. Never mind the spread of tropical diseases like malaria and cholera, or even our own home-grown obesity and diabetes, which probably won't kill us this month. When our wild sockeye vanish, supermarkets will still offer us some kind of mystery fish. The status quo will remain.

But a lot of us also like to think about our great-grandchildren, and how to ensure that they live peaceful, happy and productive lives.

Suppose a few patient people formed a Foresight Party. They would offer the same message your accountant would give you: you can't blow your paycheque on payday night. What's more, you need to save a big chunk of it for future emergencies.

Planning for the lean years

Because most voters focus on the short term, most politicians see no point in long-term policies. A successful five- or 10-year project will only make the next government look good. Twenty years? Fifty? Forget it. Who can look that far ahead? What politicians are thinking seriously about their own descendants in, say, 2060?

Actually, we can foresee a lot about 2060. The U.N., for example, says Canada will have 45 million people, with almost a third of us aged 60 or older. We can foresee at least some of the effects of climate change.

We know it's also likely we'll suffer a major subduction quake off the coast of Vancouver Island, causing damage in the scores of billions of dollars. And we may well see a monster solar flare like the 1859 Carrington event; such a flare today could wreck our whole electronic communications network.

The purpose of the Foresight Party would be to anticipate the country's next half-century or more, based on known facts and reasonable extrapolation. Like Joseph warning Pharaoh about seven years of famine following seven prosperous years, the party would set policies to help the country enhance its successes and minimize its disasters.

It would cost out those policies; for example, if we need young immigrants to help pay for the costs of caring for our elderly, we should also plan to spend on programs to help those immigrants to integrate quickly and become productive citizens. If we need skilled engineers to design quakeproof buildings and robust electronic communications, we'll pay their tuition and hire them straight out of grad school.

The U.S. military spent a fortune for 30 years on making computer technology cheap and small enough to become a viable private-sector industry. Similarly, the Foresight Party would invest heavily in research and development that would make green solutions too cheap to pass up -- whether for consumers or for businesses.

U.S. economist Paul Krugman has called government "an insurance company with an army." (And the army itself is another form of insurance against future disasters.) Just as we insure for "catastrophic" medical contingencies, the Foresight Party would maintain a major-disaster fund. Some of the interest it earns would support mitigation programs like seismic upgrading and improving hospital cleanliness. Then, when the Big One hits or an epidemic breaks out, the government of the day will have less need to borrow -- or to improvise its response.

A gift to ourselves

The corporate world may object to the taxes it has to pay, but most successful businesses operate with long-term plans based on cost/benefit analysis. The Foresight Party will argue that its policies amount to a huge future gift for those businesses, just as we send ourselves a gift by saving for our retirement.

Of course the Foresight Party's message won't be a welcome one. No one likes to think about unpleasant events. But we saw that Japan coped with its earthquake and tsunami thanks to foresight and training; it should have had even more foresight about the siting of its nuclear reactors.

Ideally, all our present parties would adopt a Foresight platform. They could then battle over which policies would get us into the 22nd century without suffering an avoidable catastrophe.

But if they continue to squabble like kids over who got the bigger slice of the pie, something like a Foresight Party will have to offer adult supervision during some predictably difficult times.  [Tyee]

13  Comments:

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  • Argulion

    28 weeks ago

    Political foresight exists

    Political foresight exists but only in a politician's self interest. Just look at the political pension plans. Basically if you can get yourself elected twice you qualify for a gold plated pension at tax payer's expense.

    However, if politicians only got CPP, like many in Canada, I'm pretty sure there would be no concerns about CPP's long-term survival as some in political circles have previously expressed. And, I'm willing to bet that a CPP pension would be higher than it is today.

  • H13

    28 weeks ago

    We have enough political parties

    We do not need another opportunity for Canadians to stay away from the political process that passes for democracy in this country. What we do need is for all of us to understand that all systems only work as well as those who operate them. Ours has evolved at the hands of the guy with the most power. Rafe Mair is right - the system itself is broken and adding another political party, however well intentioned, will only slap a coat of paint on a disintigrating building. Until Canadians wake up to the fact that we live in an elected dictatorship, and start putting political pressure on those who have the power to change the system so it works for us and not big business, any effort to paint our problems away with a bunch of new guys with new ideas will only peel off like all the rest.

  • Jerry Munro

    28 weeks ago

    The "True" Middle Class "Foresight" Option...

    I can see the appeal of this to some true "middle class" folks, for sure, who have a kind of critique of their own, of the status quo. Perhaps even some specifically "higher placed" working class intelligentsia, such as union functionaries etc. but still lower down in the class order. But the reality is, in my view, what is described here remains just another "status quo" party option. For sure, with the good intention of developing some foresight, especially around "green" issues. Noble enough, I suppose, as far as it goes.

    But the reality is, and I suggest it will become more and more so as we go forward into this economic and political crises future already taking shape right in front of us, that the "capitalist" underpinning to the entire status quo economic and political order is the heart of the problem. And that this is so to both the present wellbeing of a growing body of folks, especially in the broad working class, and the future of their children, grandchildren AND the planet.

    Any proposed party that fails to take this central, salient reality into account, no matter how "good" its intentions are on the other big issues, which they attempt to separate out onto their own, will scarcely be seen as having foresight for very long. For overlooking the central economic, political, and yes, class realities of the present, for some pie in the sky future, is really rather feebly farsighted... At the expense of being able to see and connect that with what is right immediately in front of you. A complete vision is to be able to connect the far with the near, and vise versa.

    Again, I suggest, what is really needed is NOT another party that continues to be rooted in the status quo economic and political order of the present... But one, or preferably, a "movement of the mass of the people" , that sees and understands the total inadequacy of the economic and political status quo to their present AND future, including that of the homeland planet. In short, what is need is a fully rounded "revolutionary" vision that sees and acts in a revolutionary way, to overthrow or "replace" this status quo present... based on a full awareness of what is evolving in the present, and what is otherwise really possible in a more "full democracy".

    I've seen these "party" visions before, that then seek to root themselves in the status quo political present, in one way or another, over time evolving into, becoming corrupted by, and becoming a part of the very status quo they were initially a critique of. (This goes for much of the status quo trade union movement as well.) And that goes equally for very many socialist, social democratic and the historical "communist" party movements of the past, still with us now in the present.

    No. What is needed is to first look, and then act entirely "out of the box". To have a fully rounded "revolutionary awareness" of the present and future already taking shape. My view.

  • ianstephen1

    28 weeks ago

    We have a foresight party

    I believe the foresight party you refer to is the Green Party.

  • Jerry Munro

    28 weeks ago

    ianstephenj

    "I believe the foresight party you refer to is the Green Party.+

    Indeed, I would say so... in terms of what is described in the lead in article. Though I am sure that all the "vanguard parties" to what passes for "capitalist democracy" will similarly see themselves... as you do the Greens. :-) Which is the problem with overly broad and vague generalities. The need is to get down into the class mud, blood and beer fight particulars.It's here that the wheat begins to separate from the chaff.

  • OwlRol

    28 weeks ago

    Mainstream and fringes

    Jerry, you are correct, but we play on the fringes.

    As Crawford K. points out "Because most voters focus on the short term, most politicians see no point in long-term policies," and "No one likes to think about unpleasant events." Costs of preparation for an unclear future are mostly unpalatable, especially while many struggle to make current ends meet.

    It will surely require a chronic, ongoing and escalating crisis, such as increasing youth unemployment over an extended period of time, or a major unmet crisis response, leaving many in severe distress, such as Katrina on a much larger scale.

    During the late 60s, many young people wanted to dismantle the capitalist system, but other youth and most older adults blew back against such "weird" ideas. This has been repeated in many nations before and since.

    Better the devil they know, unless things get really bad. Perhaps where young, disillusioned people vastly outnumber their comfortable elders, significant change may happen, if it isn't sideswiped by opportunists into an unsavoury direction.

    Still, there are some who view the longer course, but most suffer the slow boil frog syndrome, and the elites know it in their manipulative distractions.

    The seeds for such change are out there, mostly on barren ground, and such fruit is not yet ripe in this country.

  • Vox.Pop

    28 weeks ago

    The foresight to say 'No'

    Jerry Munro really put his finger on it.
    Band-aid solutions built around the capitalist status quo will always fail. You cannot have the fox guarding the henhouse.
    It's getting time to say 'No' to the status quo.

  • Jerry Munro

    28 weeks ago

    More About Mainstreams and Fringes...

    "As Crawford K. points out "Because most voters focus on the short term, most politicians see no point in long-term policies," and "No one likes to think about unpleasant events." Costs of preparation for an unclear future are mostly unpalatable, especially while many struggle to make current ends meet."

    No doubt, working class folks with our more limited resources... Though I think our understanding of capitalist reality is really more than we/ all of us are generally given credit. ...tend to be forced, out of more immediate concern and need for the survival of our kin and hearth. This is and has been a simple fact of life over the entire history of capitalism, which much explains not only capitalist strategy in keeping us so placed economically etc., but for ourselves, why the system has been "tolerated" for so long. (With the exception of many periods of rebellion and open class warfare in the past. AND in a quite other way more positively tolerated over the relatively brief period of the postwar II social democratic state of capitalism, during which for a time it actually looked like "the system" was going to evolve into something more resembling a kind of "socialism". The capitalists obviously thought so too, which is why the neo-conservative reaction to reverse course since the late 70s to early 80s.)

    A different reality is, however, already now in motion as a consequence, and impacting our lives increasingly dramatically. And out of a growing alarm and concern for our present, is already an awareness of the growing precariousness of the future on many fronts which includes the environment, similarly for our kith and kin.

    So, I disagree some with your pessimistic analysis of the "average" or working class psyche, motivations, and level of understanding. Which is not to claim it is perfect, for sure, because it is not.

    continued next post...

  • Jerry Munro

    28 weeks ago

    Even More About Mainstrams and Fringes...

    continuing from above...

    BUT, we are in a new period that still has a long ways to run, even though there is a rising "concern" level, before a sufficient Pavlovian motivation is there to initiate a positive, more dramatic reflex action. Right now, even while "the mass", in my daily experience of my fellows, do have a pretty good grasp of what is going on, and contempt for the status quo system, its politicians and apologists, they are "not yet" sufficiently motivated to challenge it, take it on, or "transform" it. I suggest that is already in the process of changing across capitalism everywhere, evident in Greece, England, Spain and elsewhere in Europe, and sooner than maybe you might think, to be seen on a street near you.

    "The mass" however, for sure, have now been relatively lethargic/ bought off for a very long time now, especially here and in Amerika. All this is already changing, and such as myself is prepared to be patient... for as long as it takes.

    In the interim, I am not in a hurry to rush out and join "another" vanguard party, as will sooner or later betray my class kind in any case. "The seeds for such change are out there..." indeed. But not on barren ground as you claim, but already growing shoots. Patience. Patience. Watched new social shoots and later their people fruit will never mature and ripen, so it seems anyway, like a watched kettle never boils... until it suddenly does.

    I have been on the fringe and in the political wilderness for a very long time now. I know patience... and I have it in spades. :-)

    No wine before its time. Not any wine that is worth it anyway.

  • frank2

    28 weeks ago

    We need interest groups to

    We need interest groups to push all the parties to (a) support the research relevant to understanding the issues, (b) fashion possible responses, and (c) ensure adequate levels of public education so that there is informed public support for actions. The present national government has indicated its attitude by reducing professional staff in the relevant fields, reducing the usefulness of the census, etc. I'd hope the other parties would all make much more of this issue.

  • North of Hope

    28 weeks ago

    All political parties

    All political parties will claim to be the "foresight" party. They all make promises to try to sway us to vote for them. What we need is the "Truth party." One that will tell the truth no matter how painful their policies will be when they start to solve problems. They have to deal with the real issues. not manufactured "blaw, blaw."

  • reality_check

    28 weeks ago

    Good idea!

    Not a bad idea! It is true that long-term solutions to long-term problems are never tackled. I like some of the ideas suggested.

    One idea that was not mentioned is hwo to tackle the subject of illiteracy. There is not one linguist in the world who doesn't know that English spelling is one of the most ridiculous systems ever created, making reading excruciatingly difficult to learn, delaying the learning of more advanced skills and concepts. Yet, instead of doing what is sensible --fixing spelling-- we continue to try to fix the people who cannot learn an inefficient and illogical system. To make matter worse, we label those kids who cannot learn it, learning disabled. While it is true that many of us eventually master reading, did you know that it takes an average of 2 more years for English-speaking kids across all Commonwealth countries to learn to read? Bandaid methods are created and dismissed to be resuscitated when one has forgotten about them. All those changes are expensive as they are ineffective. The long-term solution to change the spelling system is never entertained because it takes time to implement and coordination with our US neighbours. Taking 2 years off learning mindless spelling rules and involving kids in mindful learning are sure to help North-America companies to be in the forefront of industrial progress.

    Many countries have reformed their languages to make it more efficient. Did you know that the Chinese chose to simplify or modernize their spelling system? On the other hand, English writing has never been reformed to match its modern pronunciation, but many famous people tried. Sadly, vested interest groups squashed all attempts. As it is, Commonwealth countries, continue to pour more tax-payers' money into literacy programs, more money into jails and police to keep illiterate robbers and gang members from doing harm, more money to hospitalize illiterate workers who are hurt or are hurting others. Is it any coincidence that about 70% of prisoners are functionally illiterate? Is it any coincidence that taxes will continue to increase or services will take a hit, if we do not seek more intelligent solutions? Of course, as in all reforms of this nature, present speakers will not need to learn the new system and it will take a few generations to make it happen. Unfortunately, I doubt that the majority of people can realize the benefits of such a reform and I doubt that the average politician would want to advance it, as long-term solutions don't bring votes! Maybe our political system needs to be reformed too!

    There are other big issues that this party could fix: lection funding, proportionate representation, mindless war on drugs, ...

  • zalm

    28 weeks ago

    Fix English all you like

    Everyone's been doing it for hundreds of years. Why do you think we spell "ought" the way we do? Because that's how most people in the Midlands and north of England used to say it as recently as a hundred years ago - "aowt" complete with gutteral in the middle. And who were many of the emigrants who settled on our shores?

    English is full of that kind of stuff from more than 70 languages around the globe, including a few nearly extinct.

    I'm all for keeping English as it is as a kind of anchor in the ever-changing world, but I recognize that I've even done my part to corrupt the language, even while I try to follow as many of the other grammatical and usage rules as I can remember... which isn't more than half of them, by far.

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