Opinion

Two Leadership Runs! Place Your Bets!

Rafe's reckless wagers on a wide open field of Lib and NDP candidates.

By Rafe Mair, 13 Dec 2010, TheTyee.ca

Ingrid Rice, HST, Cartoon

Cartoon by Ingrid Rice.

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I am indeed like the guy at the horse races waving a fist full of tickets shouting "Come on anyone!" because he needs a winner so badly. Since "Pinocchio" Campbell finally did the decent thing and resigned and Carole James was forced out, I've made so many prognostications I can't keep track. I therefore declare this to be my absolutely last effort to give you a winner in their respective leadership campaigns -- unless, of course, I change my mind.

The parties proceed from two entirely different guidelines when it comes to selecting the top banana. The Liberals know that their core support will be loyal so they have to reach out for the "centre." The NDP, however, much as they might like to reach out, look for a leader who best can handle the virtually impossible task of keeping their warring factions from killing one another even though, make that when, an election is on.

The Liberals compromise to find a winner and have a long history of conferring the Liberal party status on anyone who looks as if they can win, while the NDP campaign process seeks a leader who is the least offensive to the most factions -- if he/she can win, so much the better, though that is far from the deciding factor.

The Liberals, then, face the Herculean task of finding someone -- anyone -- who can best recant all the policies of their late leader, the best way of doing that being not have been there at the time.

The best "recanter" so far is Mike De Jong, who would get rid of the HST recognizing that, as a woman can't be just a "little bit pregnant," no aspirant can hope to get away with keeping it by dropping it a point or two. The declared candidate who can deny direct involvement is Christy Clark since she wasn't there. Not having listened to radio ever since I discovered the iPod, I wouldn't know what Clark said about the HST but I'm told that she didn't give her old cronies much of a hard time on the subject. However, Clark was around for the sale (Oops! 990 year lease) of BC Rail and that is a lingering un-lanced carbuncle that will not go away -- nor should it.

Good odds: Clark and De Jong

The well known non-contender, Carole Taylor, because she quit her portfolio (Finance) before the 2009 election, is clear of the HST mess and wasn't in the legislature when BC Rail was dumped. The only question that could be asked of her (and it is indeed a weak one) is, "Why did you run for the Liberals in 2005 after that terrible BC Rail decision?"

Because Taylor has proven to be a capable person in any walk of life she's tried, including B.C. finance minister, she remains the shoo-in for leader but for one niggling detail -- she says and says and says that she doesn't want it. The moment she changes her mind, all the other challenges fail.

Without Carole Taylor, it should be Christy Clark or Mike De Jong, with Clark having no HST poop to clean directly off her shoes and being better connected in the Liberal party, should get the nod.

It's my daft (not deft) handling of the NDP race that has me like the guy at the race track. My only (pitiful) excuse is that to pick a winner here one must know the NDP inside and out and even NDPers of great age and wisdom have trouble with that. When, as with the Liberals, the only choice is who has the best chance of winning, a political junkie at least has something to work with. When dealing with a party that would rather suffer than be healthy, one looks in vain for a formula.

Three strong NDP candidates

The first difficulty is deciding if the old rule that Brutus doesn't get the crown applies to the NDP. (The great exception to the "Brutus Rule" was the finally disgraced Brian Mulroney who had others work the sharp knives for him.) This question is an apt one for if the Brutus Rule doesn't apply, the obvious favourite would be Jenny Kwan who has the experience and has much grown in stature in part because of the sterling performance that she and Joy MacPhail put on after the 2001 debacle. She has said she doesn't want the job -- politicians are noticeably unreliable on questions like that -- and two of her co-conspirators, who would normally be considered, Katrine Conroy and Norm Macdonald, had their fingerprints on that dagger which is likely fatal to their chances.

I've finally (beware of political commentators who say that) boiled it down to three.

In no special order, they are Mike Farnworth, Adrian Dix and John Horgan.

Farnworth is way ahead in experience having been an MLA for much longer and was a cabinet minister. He's likely the person with the fewest enemies in the party, which is the NDP's way of keeping score.

John Horgan, with difficulty, stayed with Carole James. He's the energy critic and has been frustrated in getting his views, especially on private versus public power spelled out as clearly as he would like. He has had health issues.

Adrian Dix is the pit bull. Back in Glen Clark's dark days, over a gaming license, Dix manufactured an exculpatory memo to help his boss out and, worst of all, got caught. He did own up and apologize and considering the serial lying of the current government, Dix's sin pales considerably.

Dix does, however, carry one very big plus. He's just what Carole James was not, a take-no-prisoners alley fighter. Looking ahead to an election campaign, this is just what is needed to deal with whoever the Liberal leader is.

I wouldn't dare try to divine what a sane political party would do, much less try it with the NDP.

Is it right or wrong?

You must know my bias. I am co-founder of an environmental group called the Common Sense Canadian. Unlike politicians, we're not seeking public office and have no one to whom we are beholden. Whereas political parties reflect whether they are "right, "left" or "centre," our guideline is simply, "Is it right or wrong?"

I believe that the biggest issue by far is the destruction by Campbell of our environment, be it agricultural land, fish farms, giving power away and bankrupting BC Hydro in the process and by favouring piping tar sands muck across our province and down our coast.

To me, a fiscally inept government legacy can be fixed by a successor but once you've lost your farmland, salmon, energy and sea coast they are gone forever.

The argument that these environmental rapists are needed for the economy to prosper is nonsense.

Where's the fiscal sense of taking farmland for a highway if that means you have to import food?

Where's the fiscal sense in destroying our fishery so Norwegians can put in lice-laden fish farms, kill our wild salmon, then take all the money home with them?

Where's the fiscal sense in giving our power away and destroying rivers while financing the private undertakings with ratepayers' money so that all their profit goes out of the province -- while destroying BC Hydro in the bargain?

And surely no one can sensibly argue that it's good business to give a virtual free ride to oil companies (whose record in the environment is appalling) for pipelines and tankers on our coast

I'm all for business and money being invested in our province, as long as we have good rules of behaviour and enforce them.

Placing my NDP money on...

This means that my choice would be John Horgan, but that is given that I don't yet know the environmental views of Farnworth and Dix. If they accord with the position Horgan has taken, that's a big plus in my book.

I have not mentioned Corky Evans. He's run for the leadership twice and failed. He's been very outspoken these days and one always suspects retired politicians who appear on the scene when things get noisy. He would make a very attractive candidate but as stated above, the NDP's leadership races have little to do with winning elections.

Given my record, I apologize to the two Liberals and three New Democrats for jinxing them but console them with the thought that while I've never been right, all losing streaks come to an end sooner or later -- don't they? [Tyee]

35 Comments:

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  • Progress4Canada

    1 year ago

    Dix the best pick.

    I think Dix would be the best pick. He's got experience and with Hogan and Farnworth on his side he would make a great leader. He's got what Carole didn't have, and that's the guts to take on the Liberals and their leader directly and make them own up for sitting on their hands while Campbell push forward his destructive mandate.

    Dix for the win and NDP for the province.

  • airwin

    1 year ago

    Rafe, great point on the importance of the environment

    but I don't trust the NDP an inch on that issue. They pay lip service to the environment until one dying dinosaur company uses the lame tactic of claiming the only choices are union jobs or raping the environment. Of course, that is a completely false choice, but the NDP are a sucker for it every time. Protecting union jobs with forest companies was the motivation for the mass trial of environmentalists by the NDP government in 1993. That trial set a shameful record for that time of the largest mass trial in British Commonwealth history. I don't forget or forgive those stupid actions by the NDP government.

    I have been voting Green ever since, and it is good to see Green party support steadily rising as more and more people realize the paramount importance of the environment to our survival.

  • jim1966

    1 year ago

    Good Article Rafe

    Hard call for any one of these people. Lots of interesting choices for both parties. One thing still gets my attention when the media writes articles about leaders etc. We as a society still pick the "best or most winnable person for a party". Who has the most likeable personality, the nicest smile etc. I never in my life believed on electing a party because of the leader etc. What is missing from both the NDP and the Liberals is a plan and what they want or wish to do if elected. Voter apathy is a major issue and who is to blame the voters?, I think not. I hope that both parties deliver on thier respective party platforms. Lastly, most people are very disgusted by the former preimier of BC. The current provincial government can in my view never shake off the HST, BC Rail and the many other issues that face British Columbians on a daily basis.

  • Lawrence

    1 year ago

    Airwin

    I have to agree with you.

    Most of my friends are environmentalists like myself,and many of those don't feel the NDP actually cares about the rape of BC's resources under the Socred/Libreals.

    A lot of this goes back to the Clayoquot fiasco.

    You did'nt hear much about the environment from CJ come to think about it; not much about the HST either.

    Guess that's why she's sitting in the weeds.

    It sure is time the NDP put someone involved in the environmental movement at the head of the party.

    Gregor Robertson would be a shoo-in

  • Dan the socialist

    1 year ago

    (Oops! 990 year lease) of BC

    (Oops! 990 year lease) of BC Rail and that is a lingering un-lanced carbuncle that will not go away -- nor should it.
    ==========

    Yet most BC'ers do not care about that or are clueless. It is only a very few that are even remotely upset.

  • Lawrence

    1 year ago

    BC Rail

    Would be an excellent issue for the election.

    The fact that Cristy Clark was in the middle of it is a bonus.

    It's got everything, bribery, cover ups, the selling out of BC's resources and a huge cost to the taxpayer.

    Yes,yes.

  • Matt T.

    1 year ago

    Harry Lali

    Harry Lali seems to the best candidate so far - honest, not party of the party hierarchy, a true progressive with a vision and also has his roots in rural BC.

    Harry announced this morning that he is strongly leaning toward entering the race with the groundswell of support from the grassroots so far. Harry's our man.

    http://blogs.bclocalnews.com/victoria_secrets/harry-lali-strongly-leaning/470

  • Francis

    1 year ago

    Clearly our party has been

    Clearly our party has been through the wringer the past few years. It has been an emotionally trying time for all concerned no matter what side you are on.

    But what about an outsider candidate? Someone who can bring new ideas and a new approach, someone who is eminently capable of understanding and developing policies in running a good and sustainable economy.

    I'm thinking Federal MP PETER JULIAN.

  • Skywalker

    1 year ago

    Outside or inside

    There are individuals grounded in the roots of social democracy. These people are hardworking and not necessarily evident to the usual collection of political junkies. Once they step into the vacancy they become leaders. I will have to be somebody who has not become the focus of anger to one side or the other but who might be a bridge builder. Let it be someone who does not bring baggage or even gender or ethnic politics to the scene. I could be someone from either present camp.

    It is a tall order but can happen if they get it together soon after Christmas.

  • Van Isle

    1 year ago

    Earlier this morning while

    Earlier this morning while driving around town I heard Ms. Clark on the Bill Good program. All I can say is that, the more she spoke, the uglier she got; My Gawd, she cranked up on something?

  • eight

    1 year ago

    Retired politicians

    "and one always suspects retired politicians who appear on the scene when things get noisy."

    Rafe, you couldn't have described Christy Clark any better.

    As for BC Rail, she told Bill Good this morning in between stacked calls that the case is closed. And he agrees, challenging anybody with a sliver of solid proof she was involved to send it to him.

    Gordo's right-hand man can't shed any light on it due to the worst case of selective amnesia in recorded history, nobody in government will talk, including the two convicted criminals who had their legal bills paid by Gordo with our tax money, and nobody anywhere in elected office with the power to do so will call a public inquiry into the mess. Bill doesn't appear even a tad troubled by this, of course.

    I doubt Bill's challenge was because he has a burning desire to get to the bottom of things; it's because he feels safe in the knowledge that he won't get a response.

  • Skywalker

    1 year ago

    If one had proof,

    ..why in heaven's name would you take it to Bill Good. You might as well take it to Gordon Campbell.

  • Francis

    1 year ago

    Aptly put

    "I doubt Bill's challenge was because he has a burning desire to get to the bottom of things; it's because he feels safe in the knowledge that he won't get a response."

    Well said, lets just put this Bill Good description in the vault. Well described Mr. Eight.

  • Ed Seedhouse

    1 year ago

    Let us hope that the NDP (of

    Let us hope that the NDP (of which I am a member) at least has the sense to hold their convention well after the new Liberal leader has been decided upon. Because my vote for leader may well change depending on who the Liberals choose and I would like a couple of months after the Liberal leadership vote to make up my mind which of the NDP hopefuls would do best against that new Liberal leader.

  • Stewart MacKenzie

    1 year ago

    Early election call

    Keep in mind that if the polls look good for the Liberals at any time after Feb. 26 they can call an election with the "need a new mandate for a bold new age" (of the same old BS).

    I am all for renewal and am signing people up and encouraging others to sign based on the idea that soonest is best. If anyone wants a say in the NDP vote they should get a membership ASAP!
    This is a historic and positive event in the party as the first one member one vote choice, which empowers the average member far more than the delegate selection system. Whatever the circumstances bringing this race about, it will result in a leader the entire party can accept as the choice of the membership - not a bunch of well financed backroom operators using the process to ensure most delegates vote the party line on most issues - with some notable and quite wonderful exceptions, such as the anti Kemano 2 resolution passed unopposed at the 1994 convention over the objections and manipulations of government, cabinet and party brass to keep it from seeing the light of day!
    That was a victory for democracy for which Rafe Mair can take no small credit, as he made the people of the lower mainland realize how damaging the project would be to the Fraser and built the broad support base needed for reason to enter the issue !

    This family will be backing whoever is making the most sense, because we sense that for a change, that is what will attract more voters and non voters than flash, waffling, sniping, griping, or hyping - we have seen plenty of that and are plenty tired of it.

    Remember - when you donate, make sure your local constituency gets the maximum possible under the rules!

  • Tangler

    1 year ago

    No Name Products

    "Harry Lali seems to the best candidate so far - honest, not party of the party hierarchy, a true progressive with a vision and also has his roots in rural BC."

    Aside from the 12 people who are actually working for the "Harry Lali for Leader" campaign, I have never met a single human being who has ever heard of Harry Lali.

    Like the rest of the Kwan Gang - including Jenny herself - Lali is another backbench nobody. The best he can hope for is to trade his handful of convention votes for a favour from the new leader. Maybe something like Physical Fitness Critic.

  • kmdyson

    1 year ago

    Corky

    Mr Evans is the best man for the job...no question....

  • Ricky

    1 year ago

    Dix, Dix, Dix!

    Oh Lord please let it be Dix. If every the NDP needed a set of balls (even on a woman) and an articulate mouth, this is it.

  • VivianLea Doubt

    1 year ago

    donations!

    I can only add that when you are donating to the renewal of the NDP, spare a thought for those long and getting longer food bank line ups. That will keep the dregs quiet whilst the rest of you get on with Christams celebrations, and then, the installation of the next great saviour of the left.

  • PeteL

    1 year ago

    No worries Viv

    Donated to the NDP, going to donate to a leadership candidate, hmm, ... the Peter Julian Campaign maybe, and have already donated a big hamper of quality food to the Food Bank.

    Thanks for the reminder, but most folks here don't need to be chided to do so. I think everyone knows the suffering out there on account of extreme right wing policies. You don't have to go far to find homeless and helpless folks all over the streets.

    Viv, maybe you can open your purse and hand over a toonie or two too. Everyone deserve a couple bucks in their pockets. No matter what they might spend it on.

    Lets take care of people as the weather deteriorates.

  • ReeferMadness

    1 year ago

    Go, Corky!!

    Evans says what others just want to say.

  • kevparr

    1 year ago

    THE NDP LEADERSHIP RACE:

    Without any back ground in leadership races,i think that the ndp need a leader who can unite the caucus and win the election.British columbians need it too, maybe more than we realize.

  • zalm

    1 year ago

    PeteL

    I don't think you've any idea how insulting you've just been....

  • zalm

    1 year ago

    There's no depth

    ...on the NDP benches. Dix, for all his good work as health critic, made no impression, and is singularly pit-bull without compromise - totally the wrong requirement for leader. He'd do better to serve another leader who has more desire to weld disparate parts of the 'party of compromise' into a more unified whole. Dix may be up to it someday, but not today.

    Maybe there's someone else out there, but I don't see him or her. Certainly not on the scale of, say, Colin Gabelmann, Mark Rose, John Cashore or Andrew Petter; or non-political luminaries like Mary-Ellen Turpel-Lafond, Ernie Quantz, Penny Ballem, Wayne Strelioff and more.

  • VivianLea Doubt

    1 year ago

    @zalm

    I confess I am more concerned about the 'depth' of the average NDP member just at the moment.

  • harriethedgehog

    1 year ago

    NDP need a leader who can win.

    While I wish we had less polarized politics in BC, I do not want any more of the misnamed liberals; they are far too liberal with our property, land, resources and businesses, giving them away to their cronies and foreign riffraff. The Unions need to get a life or they will kill the NDP party's chances at government even if they manage to choose a leader capable of winning. I favour Corky Evans as an NDPer without too much stench and good popular appeal. While I hate the HST, Mike de Jong needs to realize there are easier things to reverse than the HST such as Run of River projects, Gateway, and more stupid overpriced Skytrain lines. Light rail is far cheaper and can be paid for by making corporations pay their fair share of taxes.

  • Barryeng

    1 year ago

    "Yet most BC'ers do not care

    "Yet most BC'ers do not care about that or are clueless. It is only a very few that are even remotely upset."

    Dan the Sociaist is wrong. There are plenty of British Columbians who are very upset over the whole BC Rail schmozzle. Just ask BC Mary, Bill Tielman Laelia Yule, or many other bloggers. The HST angered many BC'ers, but I feel that it was the Basi-Virk buyout that broke the camel's back.

    Not one moment too soon.

  • motorcycleguy

    1 year ago

    Ed Seedhouse wrong, no waiting

    Get Corky in there now, no waiting. He can motivate the electorate. He is able to be a leader and still have the likes of Dix, Farnworth, Lali and for sure Horgan stand right next to him at every opportunity and voice a unified plan to put an immediate end to destructive Liberal policies (not the least of which is draining alpine lakes for private profit profit). He is able to say he has the people to do the job and the electorate will believe him. Dan the socialist is also wrong......BC'ers care big time. They did not trust either Campbell or James to do a job. Both parties are underestimating the unrest of the general public. Corky has what it takes to step in and stand right next to any individual from any party that shares in all of our passion to look after BC. Jump on it now, no waiting. Hold the present government accountable with strong commentary by strong speakers standing side by side. How refreshing it would be to see a TV interview where Corky says "Good question......hey Horgan, tell them what we think about that". The MSM will soon be playing catch up, sort of a Mark Twain whitewashing the fence situation. Stuck on the HST issue? Forget about it, it is just a piece of paper that can be re-written....or made to go away with a simple reduction in the overall rate.....it is a tactic to reduce public awareness of our resource give aways and privatization of services that need to remain public.

    Balance is a big word and Corky knows how to spell it.

  • dipper chic

    1 year ago

    Our best shot at winning - Mike Farnworth

    People - we need to face reality here: Corky has said he won't be running, Horgan is an unknown outside the NDP, Dix is only known for the "memo to file" incident and Harry Lali...well, I won't even get into that.

    The public (remember, the "voting public" the people who decide elections) have shown who they favour:

    http://www.theprovince.com/news/Poll+shows+Clark+Farnworth+picks+with+Liberals+dead+heat/3952806/story.html?cid=megadrop_story

    Now it's just time for NDP'ers to listen to them and actually give ourselves a shot at winning instead of shooting ourselves in the foot. So please think about the greater good, and pick the leader who will mean an end to BC Liberal dictatorship, Mike Farnworth:

    http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#!/pages/Draft-Mike-Farnworth-for-BC-NDP-Leader/112215175513449

  • VivianLea Doubt

    1 year ago

    insert your ad here...

    Yes, now is the time to plug your preferred leadership candidate! Nothing a new leader can't fix...

  • Nimno

    1 year ago

    A simple question

    for aspiring NDP leadership hopefuls:

    "Do you have aspirations for a federal Liberal role after BC?"

  • kevparr

    1 year ago

    Focusing forward:

    So glad to see the positive thinking and comments flowing from the members talking about possible and potential leaders,ndp vs liberal candidates for the up coming election and all the different win lose scenarios and possible variables.Great food for thought to weigh and reflect over the holiday season.The juices are flowing and as Sherlock Holmes would say"Watson" "The game is afoot"

  • Deltafan

    1 year ago

    time for more independents

    Your predictions make a lot of sense. In a snap election, as many people are predicting, what abpout the role of independents? If the results are close, a few sane people could hold the balance of power and make a difference

  • virimpig

    1 year ago

    Christy

    Is Ms Clark Mrs Mariessen? If she is our upcoming premier can she use her maiden name?

  • the-grouse

    1 year ago

    Mary Ellen Turpel-Lafond

    Yes, I know Mary-Ellen has probably too damn many smarts and too much integrity to jump in but her track record in bringing Gord-O and his neo-con claque to heel is already impressive. I started a "Turpel Lafond for BC Premier" group on Facebook. It has yet to reach avalanche stage but in this season of hope, one can, can't one?

    http://www.facebook.com/home.php?sk=apps&ref=notif&notif_t=app_request#!/group.php?gid=101108866601589

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