Economic Worst Is Yet to Come
Reform-averse world leaders will suffer the wrath of ignored citizens. In BC, too.
Beware, ye who live in towers. Photo courtesy of The Blackbird from The Tyee's Your BC photo pool.
I have here, ladies and gentlemen, a jar of dots. Now you see me pouring them on the table. Here they are: Campbell fibbing about the HST. Stock market scams. Bailouts of "investment" companies. The BP oil spill. Riots in Greece. The demonstrations at the G8 and G20 meetings in Toronto.
Now let's see if any of these dots can be connected.
Gordon (Pinocchio) Campbell not only unable to see a recession coming, he fibbed about the deficit in the May 2009 election, then strained credulity some more about the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST), bringing 700,000 people to sign a petition against it. He has placed the burden for his appalling lack of business acumen on lower income British Columbians.
Not only have there been stock market scams all over the world, not only has Washington and London had to bail out failed financial houses, but these houses have immediately gone back to their old tricks of paying huge bonuses, now using taxpayers money to do so.
In Greece we've seen a fiscal nightmare spawning riots which has brought the very continuation of the E.U. into question.
How much of the recent Toronto demonstrations were due to "anarchists" as claimed by the police and how much on genuine anger I can't say, but I do say that there was huge popular anger involved.
All of these issues have this in common: gross negligence of government has placed a new and often unbearable burden on the less fortunate. Instead of taxing the investment industry's transactions, which would raise billions of dollars with little pain, these issues have all been met by pledges to cut deficits, thus reduce social services and bring unfair taxes to be borne disproportionately by the less well off. The citizens who made the least contribution to the national debt must take the burden of cures proposed. In all the jurisdictions involved, there has been an absence of regulation and no meaningful enforcement.
The consequences of this gross negligence have been little short of catastrophic. It's not just the unfair taxation and unemployment/underemployment that has provoked near revolutions, but it is also the quality of employment. Perhaps the most gut-wrenching of economic consequences is the near or actual collapse of pension plans. Not long ago I was hired to do a speech at a union conference. When those making the decisions remembered that the purpose of the convention was to deal with a bankrupt pension fund it was clear that they couldn't afford my modest fee.
Why are they surprised?
There is, I think, a little-discussed common factor also involved, namely how could so many countries not see the recession coming? If my wife and I, with no economic expertise, saw the obvious danger signals and took action, why couldn't governments do the same? Didn't government regulators have economists? How could so many enormous companies, household names, be bankrupt with no one in the U.S. government knowing it? How could huge banks go broke in the midst of the longest bull bear market in history with no one knowing?
The fiscal catastrophes in New York, London and several E.U. nations seemed to happen overnight -- how could that be possible?
In British Columbia the main question is hard to ask because the consequences of ignorance are so breathtaking. How can the B.C. budget deficit suddenly go from under $700 million during the May 2009 election campaign to nearly $3 billion a few weeks after the Liberals were safely back in office?
Great Britain refused a majority to either major party and now reels under the cure for its ills proposed by the new Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Angela Merkel, prime minister of Germany, is on the brink of resignation in large part due to the collapse of the Greek government and collapses about to happen in Spain, Italy and Ireland.
President Obama, who engineered huge bailouts for U.S. companies, is now being pilloried for these efforts.
Here in B.C. the governing party is hugely unpopular and may be falling apart. On and on it goes; from tiny Iceland to giant America, people are livid.
What fueled G20 protesters
That takes us to Toronto and the two big international conferences, the G8 and the G20, and the demonstrations. Leaving aside the anarchists the police see as the problem, the fact is that enormous crowds demonstrated a discontent amounting to hatred of the governments represented.
There is a common factor -- governments have failed to monitor and regulate properly and they've lied through their teeth either overtly or by silent cover-ups, which had the effect, deliberate or not, of cosseting and covering up of criminal economic activity. Institutions held in high regard for their honesty and steadfastness have been stealing from shareholders and the public and have imploded. Icons like Alan Greenspan, once seen as souls of fiscal probity and infallible judgment, have been shown to be damned fools. Business and corporate emperors all over the western world have been exposed as having no clothes.
As I see it, folks, the dots connect.
The same tummy that told me to get the hell out of the stock market tells me that the worst is yet to come. ![]()




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off-the-radar
1 year ago
it's not left vs right . . .
it's top vs bottom and whether we can save our world from ecological catastrophe.
samuidave (not verified)
1 year ago
Austerity's got your back, boys...
....next comes the revolution!
Too bad we haven't the gonads or the collective wisdom for doing what is obviously needed.
Before the bailout in America, I championed everyone taking a hit and rebuilding the economic model. Of course that wasn't going to fly. Conversely, Paul Krugman, economist, was stating then if you are going to bail these guys out, go big. The thought made me ill.
After the G20, Krugman is again saying they blew it; the governments pissed away the money and never got the capital flowing as needed.
He did a column a week ago that is worth reading:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/opinion/28krugman.html
It seems like his initial advice "go big or go home" is still looking correct; that is, as long as you don't mind maintaining the status quo of exploitation and slave-wages.
Nice read, Mr Rafe Mair.
alive
1 year ago
workers unite
"it's not left vs right . . .
it's top vs bottom"
Right, and who the hell do you think the left and rights represents?
Maybe we have had so much brainwashing happening that people forget that the true left parties were created for the benefits of the "bottom" as you put it.
Read the lyrics of "the Internationale" and you will see what people fought for ages ago are ever more valid today.
Jeffrey J.
1 year ago
Democratic Socialsim Foridden Topic
Rafe raises troubling questions about the West's economic system. Logically, all roads lead to a critique of monopoly capitalism (statism), which bears zero resemblance to a 'free market' (long since squashed by corporate oligarchies).
There is an alternative, but in the West, it is a forbidden topic. It is called democratic socialsim (not communism, and not Stalinism).
Northern Europe perfected the self-governing social and economic system from the 1950's until the present. It has worked like a well made diesel enginie, chugging along, year in and year out, with the HIGHEST standard of living in the world. But it must be ignored, denied, covered up and disappeared. Why? Because one, it works like a hot damn. Two, it challenges corporate monopoly capitalism (statism) and therefore must be avoided at all costs.
The "democracty" in democratic socialsm is key. Without it, state control can turn into Stalinism or US style corporatism. But with hard work that all democracies require, a society can remain fair and balanced, as we know from 1500 BC Athens to 300 BC Rome. And in Northern Europe.
Rafe's sentiments are echoed in many economic blogs, including a large number of 'free market' analysts. The most cogent is Mike "Mish" Shedlock, who inspite of his right wing views about unions, is not afraid to take on big banks, big business and the massive waste of the US military.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
For those reading Mish in 2008, he predicted the collapse of the stock market and financial system perfectly. Many, like Rafe, intuitively knew things were wrong and took action.
Those of us who read Mish did the same thing. We have all avoided the meltdown as a result of this logic.
Mish too is calling for worse yet to come. I think Rafe and Mish are correct. Read these blogs yourself and you decided.
Great article!
Hughes
1 year ago
More dots for the jar
I don’t know if it’s his lineage or his arrogance that shapes my opinion of him most, but Michael Campbell’s condescending and patronizing eekconomic drivel and bias commentaries on a certain radio station are rife with conjecture, fallaciousness, and right wing ideological spin.
I can’t help but wonder if his big brother’s fisco acumum (that’s fiscal acumen spoken with one’s tongue firmly place in one’s cheek) and his own dubious eekconomic ideologies are more dots for your jar Rafe?
Van Isle
1 year ago
I, too, believe that our
I, too, believe that our whole ponsi-economic system is about to implode; it's just a matter of when. I, too, had that queesy gut feeling years ago but now my guts are rumbling. It seems to me that our government/economic elite are a bunch of psychopaths.
KWD
1 year ago
yes, the worst is yet to come
Mair raises issues that go way beyond “the West’s economic system”; it is universal.
And he’s right when he claims there is a common factor, but the sequence laid out needs rearrangement.
Let’s not put the cart before the horse. The more likely order of events should read: “… they've lied through their teeth …” and as a result “… have failed to monitor and regulate properly …”
If viewed this way it removes that gray area of whether it was or was not deliberate, and it becomes apparent that governments are complicit in criminal cover-ups.
But even if we view it this way it doesn’t get around the fact that the voters prefer liars. They don’t want to be told the truth.
At this point in socioeconomic evoltion … through which most societies function … some are finally recognizing that the branch of the evolutionary tree we’ve chosen to follow is a dead end and there’s little we can do to change that fact.
Imagine the anxiety and chaos that would erupt if folks tried changing their thinking about the need for economic and population growth, began questioning their market place behaviours and agreed that the environment comes first.
Booker
1 year ago
Krugman
As samuidave notes above, Krugman, sadly, was right. The stimulus was too small and now the backlash against the deficit may result in a double-dip recession, the same as in 1937. History is repeating itself. The conservatives who created this mess are probably going get back into power. They sowed the seeds of this disaster with Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher 30 years ago. Government, they said, was the problem. Deregulate the market and let it rip, let the rich get richer, break the unions, etc, etc. That resulted in flatlined real incomes for the middle-class, a destitute underclass, and deficits as far as the eye can see. Conservatism in action is not pretty.
Jerry Munro
1 year ago
Of dead ends and things I....
"...some are finally recognizing that the branch of the evolutionary tree we’ve chosen to follow is a dead end and there’s little we can do to change that fact." wrote KWD.
First, what tells me that the "free market system" is in terminal demise here, soon to be fed upon by their own dreaded and self-created scavenger of free markets, "deflation", is that all the systems "capitalist" solutions, even looked at from their own "objective" self-interest, are wrong and destined to produce the opposite result. Deflation, to the capitalist, is simply falling prices, and that is what they focus upon.
The reality is, however, that deflation is but one link in the causal chain. It starts with all the cuts to purchasing power that they have been robbing from the working class wage packet, through added working class expenditures for "the system's" savaging of the social safety net, and a taxation burden shifted more and more to them from the wealthy. The net effect of which, because they fail to fully appreciate that the worker is also the major consumer, savages his and his family's ability to actually purchase/consume his precious increased productivity. And when that begins to back up, and the critical final step in the capitalist free market system fails. it languishes upon store shelves and in warehouse unpurchased. There is no consumption. It is unaffordable. The pressure builds to critical mass and prices have no choice but to "deflate". tTypically which occurs in an atmosphere of "free market" panic... to recover investment and share, in any amount possible, even a portion.
It is not rocket science. It is really elementary, dear Watson.
And all aid and largesse assistance is still going to the "top", being siphoned off ever more from the bottom of the socio-economic and class structure, further exacerbating the really critical purchasing power crisis at the "bottom", and driving it toward collapse.
In short, capitalism is failing AGAIN, by the death of a thousand cuts... at its own hand.
Continued next post...
Jerry Munro
1 year ago
Of dead ends and things II...
From previous post...
What KWD describes in the quote at the start here, is essentially correct. We are on a dead end evolutionary branch of the historical tree here, and in more than strictly "free market" economic terms. This reality can't be changed under current socio-economic circumstances. We have to exit this friggin' branch posthaste, and strike off in quite another direction. A task necessity to which "democratic socialism", as they used to call themselves, here, then there "social democracy", such as the NDP, is frankly ill suited. It buys into the free market bullshit, if necessary, guided and assisted, as at present, by the bourgeois notion "parliamentary status quo State".
Whereas such as myself says, we need to strike off in quite another direction, STARTING with a "democratic" economic system controlled and guided from "the bottom", not another elite "top". Give ordinary folks that power, control of the social product wealth themselves, and the politics will take care of itself. As for the environment... population and resource demand reduction, which I agree are absolutely critical to any kind of future, egalitarian solutions for shared pain and gain will ease the pain and at least, make it all more fair.
The "classism" of capitalism is only tolerable with more and more materialism, its baubles, gadgets and beads. It quickly becomes intolerable under conditions of restraint and economization of resources etc. It needs to be gone, yesterday.
KWD
1 year ago
there ain't no such thing as "fair"
“… egalitarian solutions for shared pain and gain will ease the pain and at least, make it all more fair.”
Imagine the joy to be had while sitting around the communal, corrogated-iron-sheltered campfire, while roasting the latest environmental road kill and slowly sipping the last few ounces of the best double malt in the rapidly disappearing liquor supply. And imagine being able to share that experience with everyone from the Animal Farm: the Campbells, Harpers, Conrads, Greenspans, Soros’ and maybe even a few Suzukis.
Afer all; fair is fair, and everyone is equal ... well, almost … some of us are more equal than others
Jerry Munro
1 year ago
Cute....
I disagree. I think there is a legitimate concept called "fair", and we all know it and recognize it when we see it, and when we don't. You are merely attempting to be cute semantically, as the word "cute" was used in this context during "our" parent's time. Your argument is a kind of attempt at pseudo-intellectual sophistry, or, "an attempt to be clever with fallacious arguments."
That said, :-) I do recognize that it is cynically fashionable in some "clever" circles, and amongst the right wing, to attempt to discredit the concept of "fairness", and belittle its attainability. I would counter that while nothing, or at least near nothing is "absolute", certainly greater or lesser "fairness" in social AND economic affairs has existed in the past, and is attainable to the satisfaction of "most" human beings... save pseudo-intellectual navel gazers and sophists. :-)
Jerry Munro
1 year ago
Mind...
the "notion" of "fair" is certainly a human intellectual construct, that typically, in practical socio-economic terms thus far, has to be fought for and won. And if you are not prepared to do that, you are unlikely to get it, and you may not even then be said to "deserve" it.
To secure this fairness however, "power" is likely the critical weapon you must have to hand. You must possess "power" by one or another means or form to ensure that you get what you perceive as your "legitimate share". No "power" share, no "fairness" otherwise, in the greater likelihood. (Which was the founding recognition/principle of trade unionism, in my experience and read of the history.)
And "power" seems to rightly belong to this with the courage and mass to simply "take it.", by whatever means. My view. :-) As in, very often power does, in fact, come out of the barrel of a gun, however much that notion/reality may offend some. Not "necessarily" perhaps, but certainly on the basis of the empirical historical evidence, very often.
Regrettable as may be, still true. And this is just a for the sake of "intellectual argument" we are having here, of course. :-)
Fairness does not seem to go naturally to the candyass.
Birch
1 year ago
Fair?
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." -G. Orwell
Says it all, doesn't it?
KWD
1 year ago
for the sake of argument
you can't win or lose a construct. It's a creation of the mind: an abstraction.
Yes there is a legit concept called fair and it’s usually associated with games, rides and jestors :-)). Any other use of the word is problematic and, in your jargon, illegitimate.
“Fair”, when used to justify or condemn some pain or pleasure-ridden state of (in)equality of access, is based on the distortional thinking that wants to believe the judgments about whether or not wealth is distributed (un)equally are real.
Fair, in this usage, is a judgment. All judgments have their origins in pain or pleasure, and they are used by the explicit mind as it attempts to explain the unexplainable.
KWD
1 year ago
the real message behind statements of fairness
When folks use the words “fair” or "not fair", they are usually telling me they are happy or angry. What they aren’t telling me is why.
Jerry Munro
1 year ago
More intellectual sophistry...
I'll leave it at that. I think most folks outside of cynical intellectual sophisticates know about the desirability of fairness in life, as a distinctly human construct to be sure, between men and women and various social strata etc, outside of male gaming notions. :-) I concede though, that it is fashionable in late capitalism, especially amongst some groups of males and in the bourgeois controlled marketplaces of labour and "stuff", to eschew and mock notions of "fairness". Which continue to have to be fought for by the masses of people in social relations. And it is fashionable for some intellectuals as well, to take on these cynicisms of "the system". (The ruling ideas of any age tend to be the ideas of its ruling class. K.Marx)
We will just have to disagree on this matter. :-)
anarcho
1 year ago
Anarchism does not equal the Black Bloc
Please, Rafe, do not confuse the anarchist movement with the Black Bloc. They are only a small minority of the movement. Though I can understand their anger, I do not agree with their tactics. But this disagreement does not mean I am in favour of attacking them either. Save our attacks for the real enemy...
samuidave (not verified)
1 year ago
It is indisputable that...
...the stimulus offered up was not stimulus at all. It was allegedly top-up money for the big players causing the problems -- banks and global corporatists.
We were robbed, plain and simple. In your face theft from the bottom to the top, and with the smiling faces of Obamas and Harpers and the rest of the filthy lot trying to sanitize the entire matter.
In my world, these guys would all be on a chain gang doing hard labour till they drop.
carfreecity
1 year ago
middle class
strive to be middle class.
that has been a big problem too.
upper middle class, lower middle class and working poor.
big differences.
people so caught up in consummerism and carving their own slice of the cake that they have no concern about who gets the crumbs.
the minimum wage has remained so low it is criminal.
All this from Christians?
Like, put a box or 2 of Kraft dinner in the foodbank box at Christmas, eh. And go shop.
Des
1 year ago
Rafe Presents
a good wide overview of our financial system. Two more "dots" not mentioned should be noted as basic problems, neither of which are likely to be reformed, unfortunately.
One is that the stock market has become just another gambling den, more Vegas and Atlantic City than Wall St. or Bay St. or Fleet St. The original purpose of a stock market was to allow an investor to financially back a project if he could be convinced of its viability. Now the fast and furious trading, especially in "shorting" a stock, has resulted in traders taking unjustified risks and putting ordinary investors into jeopardy. Perhaps the way to avoid this pitfall would be be legislate that stocks and bonds purchased today must be held for a period of six months or so before they can be re-sold.
The second error society has made is giving "economists" the trust and admiration formerly granted to "men of the cloth." In olden days the purpose of Man was to give adoration to God. Nowadays we allow The Economy" to take the place of the Deity, making it the be-all and end-all of everyday living.
The Ten Commandments start out with "You shall not have strange gods before Me," but now the "Me" is the economist. And under his law Profit is the primary purpose of business. So BP is justified in cutting corners in order to maximize profits. And I've already heard that argument in real life. The feet of clay are firmly planted at the bottom of the GoM.
Jerry Munro
1 year ago
Save Attacks for Real Enemy...
"I do not agree with their tactics. But this disagreement does not mean I am in favour of attacking them either. Save our attacks for the real enemy..." wrote anarcho
My attitude exactly, Anarcho. We will almost certainly yet have need of each other.
Community Guy
1 year ago
Lower Income?
Anyone with lower income will get an HST rebate as long as they file a tax return every year, so I don't think it's right to generalize like you have done in the second paragraph Rafe.
Luck
1 year ago
Thank you Tyee for having a
Thank you Tyee for having a free speak and democrtaic approach.
Nice read, Mr Rafe Mair.
I sure hope the worst is yet to come. I hope it means riots in the streets and politicians and the like removed once and for all.
I know people so mad that they have looked up how to make explosives on the website.
Suprizing what you can find to make on the website.
If we need riots and more hand to hand combat then so be it.
Maybe bring along a guillotine that they used to use in France. Might have more impact that words could ever say.
Any way we are all fed up right, now what are we gonna do about it.
All words and no action will continue the government carnage.
We do not need to generalize people, We need action now.
United we stand and go forward or divided we fall.
G West
1 year ago
@Community Guy in re of HST rebates
The big HST rebates go to corporate and business interests - on the scale of 1.9 billion dollars a year for the BC economy.
Anyone who compares the niggardly personal quarterly rebates to low income people (money THEY had to spend to buy the goods and services they need to LIVE) with the latest Campbell payoff to his business friends and neighbors simply hasn't been paying attention.
rantnic
1 year ago
GET OFF OUR ASSES
we got over 700,000 votes on the "Fight HST Campaign" so why can't we make a change in our corrupt political system? There are alternatives out there!
BillMelater
1 year ago
austerity=war on the people
It is no coincidence that the gov't gifted the police with lots of shiny new toys of oppression and lots of overtime so the anonymous blackclad police thug will have a smile on his face thinking about all that overtime pay while clubbing protestors over the head. It is no coincidence that the govt armed itself against the people before declaring war on the people. Make no mistake "austerity" means war on the people.
jim1966
1 year ago
HST Rebate
Perception is a funny thing to some folks isn't it?. As a lower income citizen I can tell you that the HST rebate is well in a word... a farce. Why, you might think?. Think back to the 2010 BC budget, remember when Campbell & Co cut much needed resources from disability and the like. Most people affected experienced a cut to their budgets at about $240.00 per year, then the HST debacle and Hansen's lies. People who have less will have even less now. One does not simply cancel out the other Mr Hansen as there is still an increase (almost 7%) to goods and services. Campbell & Co cannot even get their lies straight.