Analysts Argue over Olympics Effect on BC Tourism
New report puts impact at zero so far, but another expert says 'more clever' counting yields rosier view.
Lured by 2010 buzz? Photo by user "Miss Barbanov" in The Tyee's Flickr pool.
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$6.7 Billion Lopped off Olympic Economic Benefits Projections
And government's new number, $4 billion, is based on a seven-year-old 'best case' scenario that hasn't panned out.
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Olympic tourism impacts fell short: report
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Olympic economic impact will be 'billions and billions': BC minister Hansen
The 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in Vancouver and Whistler are on their way to having a significant economic impact on British Columbia, but major risks remain.
That's the assessment of Mike Tretheway, a vice president of InterVISTAS Consulting and the author of a much-quoted 2002 report on Olympic impacts.
Tretheway spoke with The Tyee following the release of a PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report that found the Olympics generated about $788 million worth of economic activity in B.C. between 2003 and 2008, but that tourism numbers have been well short of the most optimistic figures politicians have regularly quoted from the InterVISTAS report.
The Olympics have likely had more impact on visits to B.C. than the analysts at PricewaterhouseCoopers found, he said. They said there had been zero impact. "That's something we at InterVISTAS dispute," he said. "Our view is some of the tourists we're seeing right now are likely here because of the Olympics."
While B.C. has seen a drop in tourism in recent years, it is difficult to say whether or not it might have been worse without the Olympics, he said.
Medium scenario on track
There have been people here doing security preparation for the games as well as those working on the technical aspects of various venues. Neither show up in the official tourism statistics the PwC researchers relied upon, he said. "It may exist -- you just have to do something more clever to find it."
Also, he said, resorts in other parts of the province -- including the Kootenays, Vancouver Island, Kelowna and Kamloops -- have seen a rise this year as people who would normally go to Whistler seek out alternatives. "There has been an uptick in tourism and bookings outside of the Vancouver region."
Tretheway's 2002 report predicted $4.2 billion worth of economic activity with the success of a major tourism marketing campaign before and after the games. When the impact of the Vancouver Convention Centre expansion was added, the figure ballooned to $10.7 billion, which is what politicians and government publications quoted -- at least until they reassessed last February.
But that was one of just four scenarios detailed in the report. At the bottom, based on low tourist visits and without the convention centre, was a $2 billion projection. The current total cost of the games is estimated at $7 billion.
So which scenario does Tretheway now think is most likely to be right?
Most likely it will be the medium visits scenario, which would see $2.4 billion in economic activity and 54,000 new jobs from the games, he said. Or it might be closer to the medium-high scenario, with a $3.3 billion boost to GDP and 77,000 jobs.
Asked about the lack of nuance in how politicians have quoted his report, Tretheway said, "What they quote is what they quote."
H1N1 may kill visits
The Olympics will have an impact -- though it remains to be seen how big an effect it is, said Tretheway, who taught courses in cost-benefit analysis at the University of British Columbia before joining InterVISTAS.
He said that a certain number of visits are virtually guaranteed and that many of the visitors who will come for the games won't be deterred by the economy. "The people who come for the Olympics tend not to be price sensitive or economic activity sensitive," he said. They include the athletes, their families, media, judges and security people. "All those people are going to come one way or another."
Tourists, on the other hand, may or may not come. Rising numbers of deaths from H1N1 in the province might discourage some people from coming during flu season, he said.
B.C. has been harder hit than most jurisdictions, with eight deaths last week attributed to H1N1 and 23 total for this fall.
"That could lead to people staying home," said Tretheway.
Another possible tourism killer would be a major terrorist attack, he said.
"We know that pandemics like SARS and terrorism like 9/11 can have an immediately negative impact," said Tretheway. "I personally worry the most about H1N1, and what impact between now and January that will have."
The future remains tough to predict. ![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
Fiat lux
16-11-2009
The one thing people ignore
The one thing people ignore is that with thousands of airliners in the Earth's skies, polluting the air, waters and contributing to climate change, tourism has become one of the major ecological disaster areas.
From the monetary point, Expo 86 went on for 6 summer months and was a major disaster for the Interior, with businesses losing big and going broke, because nobody came and the locals went to Vancouver. It cost us $5,000 loss of income, although we haven't been near the bloody place.
So, what can these clever people really expect from 2 weeks of frenzied activities in the middle of winter ? In short, they're full of it.....
Nobody knows nothing and the people of BC will be paying through the nose for this showbiz extravaganza for many years to come, with governments and economist desperately trying to cover up the real costs.
Ed Deak, Big Lake.
Jeffrey J.
16-11-2009
Alice in Wonderland
Let's just think about this:
"At the bottom, based on low tourist visits and without the convention centre, was a $2 billion projection. The current total cost of the games is estimated at $7 billion."
We spend $7 billion, and we get $2 billion back in tourism. And think of what BC could have done with that $7 billion. Health, eduction, alleviating poverty, protecting wild salmon.
But no, the Five Ring circus must go on. Don't bother us with details.
Insane.
DPL
16-11-2009
No matter what the "experts"
No matter what the "experts" have to say, this family won't be showing up. Why might that be? A ferry ride over from the town of Victoria, at least two places to stay for free but we won't be going. The impact on our two family memebers living in Vancouver will be huge. One still hasn't figured how he will get to work nights, due to road closures, and he doesn't drive. And taking holidays will not be allowed. The other will be excluded as most of his work is in False Creek. Other than that, we find it disgusting that Gordo and crew has stripped funding from so many associations that help the sick, the poor, disabled. Hopefully the international press will ask pointed questions of the street clearing of the homeless and of course this province holding the record for the lowest minimum wage and the worst child poverty in the country. No money for all those items but all the money they want, to spend on a 14 day circus. BC has sold it's soul for some possible copany profets in the future, that only some other"experts dream may occur. A pox on their houses
Skywalker
16-11-2009
if you wanted to promote tourism....
...all the billions spent could have been better used to attract tourists all over BC. You could have cut hotel/motel costs by 30% and the people would have flocked to BC and all over the province not just to Vancouver and Whistler. You would have saved the security costs as well. More people would have benefited. Oh no, the money had to go to the friends of Liberals.
VanAudio
16-11-2009
Do you want some cheese with that whine?
The only negative thing I have to say about the Olympics is I was unable to purchace more tickects on the weekend. The Olympics have put thousands of dollars in my pocket through all the work I've received and, just like Expo 86, we won't see the HUGE benefits until after it's over and the tourists start to flock in and we get to enjoy the world class infrastructure ourselves.
Norman Farrell
16-11-2009
Everyone is an expert
when the unknown is compared with the obscure. Why? Because there are no wrong answers. Up can be down and down can be up, depending on your own point of view.
The Olympic movement depends on myths, not facts or authentic traditions. But we can find clues in former host cities. It's not upbeat for all but it's definitely a lucrative party for some.
http://northerninsights.blogspot.com/2009/11/searching-for-gravy-train.html
refedmel
16-11-2009
Olympic effect on BC
ALL SUMMED UP> "owe`lympics"! Vancouver and area get the grease while the rest of us get the shaft. A $7Billion shaft that the next 4 generations will pay for.
Owelympics are just a money grab by the 'corp.`s that are spending the $7B. If the owelympics were truly about athletes, or even nationalism, then we could send all athletes to prebuilt facilities around the world -- of course that would generate no revenue for the 'backroom boys', so the scam goes on.
Big business, all wrapped up in 'new world order' uses athletes to continue flim flam scam - are athletes that stupid or just caught up in the rampant attitude of 'all for one and all for me'.
dave49
16-11-2009
See this link... ...What? A recession? People not travelling?
Consumers to keep 2010 travel budget tight: survey
More than 40 percent of consumers plan to travel less in 2010
http://www.canada.com/life/Consumers+keep+2010+travel+budget+tight+survey/2228084/story.html
Skywalker
16-11-2009
This coment always makes me chuckle.
we won't see the HUGE benefits until after it's over and the tourists start to flock in and we get to enjoy the world class infrastructure ourselves."
I can't believe there are still people who fall for this con.
Norman Farrell
16-11-2009
Capital budget yes, operating budget no!
Skywalker, are you referring to the infrastructure for which there will be no budgets to operate once the show is over? Too bad the big guys make their money on the construction, not the operations.
We already have recreational facilities that close many hours each week because full operations are not affordable.
mcdull
16-11-2009
Why do the experts always
Why do the experts always say that we will only have upsides. THe HST , the OW -lympics , PPP's and IPP's when the only ones who benefit are the wealthy and big companies. The ordinary Islander will not benefit. Viva the province of Vancouver Island.
dave49
16-11-2009
DPL
Don't forget the $100 million contract to a Quebec company to put a removable roof on BC Place Stadium. To me, that is offensive.
Fiat lux
16-11-2009
I believe that contract is
I believe that contract is for almost $500. million.
Ed Deak.
DPL
16-11-2009
I read somewhere that it's
I read somewhere that it's closer to 575 millions and don't be surprised if it goes higher. It rains a lot in Vancouver so maybe they should have saved a bunch of taxpayers money by just repairing the one they have now.And if they used BC workers a lot of the money would have come back in taxes and dollars spent locally. But that's not Gordo's way of greasing the wheels
sunshine coast girl
16-11-2009
Well duh....
"There have been people here doing security preparation for the games as well as those working on the technical aspects of various venues. Neither show up in the official tourism statistics the PwC researchers relied upon, Tretheway said." Well duh. Those people are NOT tourists, they're workers. And most of them are from out of province. And isn't it lucky for Gordo and gang that the H1N1 showed up when it did so they have something to blame for the lack of economic benefit of the Owelympics?
mmphosis
16-11-2009
tourism?
If anything tourists are turning away from BC because from all indication I've seen, the BC government is not interested in tourism. Mayhaps speculative real estate, drug dealing, the promotion of drunk driving, raiding the public coffers, destroying the environment, but not tourism. I met tourists who were looking for the "big trees" and they told me the only big trees they found were going down the highway on a logging truck.
The only effect on Tourism will be people from BC fleeing the circus for warmer climes.
dave49
16-11-2009
Doubling tourism by 2015
I've seen this reference to a BC Liberal policy of doubling tourism by 2015. In that push, we seem to be abandoning the Supernatural BC theme. In reality, the Europeans come here because there is wild land and close-to untouched nature. Getting the Harper government to exempt BC from the Navigable Water Protection Act seems like part of a plan to develop more resorts and despoil the wildness of even more lakes and rivers (and for the latter, there is run-of-river power to downgrade our small rivers further).
I see lots of wonderful Aboriginal art at the airport (YVR) and the new convention centre, but beyond the Anthropology Museum at UBC, the new Bill Reid Gallery, and the occasional Vancouver Art Gallery show, it's not a big focus of our culture. This campaign seems disconnected with the cultural reality of Vancouver, which is mostly Western European.
dave49
16-11-2009
The security bill and economic stimulus
The bill for Olympic security is predicted to be almost $1 billion. Presumably, the bulk of that is salaries. There is no economic multiplier effect unless these people are going out and spending their money. I suspect many of these people will be too busy to spend that money.
Dr Alexander
16-11-2009
dave49.. any more info on the Navigable Water Protection Act
I have heard nothing about this myself.
That is front page news stuff.
RickW
16-11-2009
Skywalker
That is why the Olympics have been entirely funded through private investment. The business plan put forward was so irresistible in guaranteeing long-term profits, that some of the notables in BC such as Jimmy Pattison immediately rushed to invest.
And then I woke up................
crankypants
16-11-2009
I guess
I guess that they should also have counted those workers that came from overseas to work on the Golden Ears Bridge and the Canada Line as well as all the Mexicans that come to pick the crops each year. With all these extra "Tourists" one must conclude that the businesses that make their through tourism must be misleading the public. InterVISTAS Consultants sound as believable as Colin Hansen extolling the virtues of the HST.
What a joke.
michelt13
17-11-2009
Of course the winter games will have a financial impact on BC...
The province (and the taxpayers) will be paying for it for the next few generations!
In Quebec, it took them the better part of 3 decades to clear up the debt. I wonder how long it will take BC to do the same.