- Ms Kaye is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Mary Carlisle is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Prem Gill is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Nancy Flight is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Justin Everett is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- John Westover is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Nora Etches is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Edward Henderson is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Bharadwaj Chandramouli is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Dean Chatterson is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Marius Scurtescu is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Robert Parkes is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- James Murton is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Susan Doyle is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Vincent Strgar is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Helen Spiegelman is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Subir Guin is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Kimball Finigan is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- Joanne Manley is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
- David Leach is a Tyee Builder. You can be, too.
Gordon Campbell's $400 Million Power Line Bet
Did BC's premier juice up his claims for the Northwest Transmission Line? A Tyee special report.
Proposed route of power line up Highway 37, as shown on its supporters' website.
For a year, the massive power line project in British Columbia's north looked like it had fizzled. But then, on Sept. 26th, Premier Gordon Campbell zapped it back to life.
Campbell's announced intention to extend B.C.'s electrical grid hundreds of kilometres into the northwest corner of the province is based on the assumption that the required $400 million investment will pay for itself by spurring prosperity across the under-developed north.
But a representative of the mining industry that helped Campbell craft this rosy scenario counselled caution in an interview with The Tyee. The big ticket mining projects that would finance the power line are more of a wish list than anything certain, explained Byng Giraud, vice-president of policy & communications for the Mining Association of B.C. His group is optimistic, he said, but "nobody should necessarily go to the bank on this."
That's not how Campbell sounded in September.
"The communities in the North have a vision to further open their region to economic opportunities on a global scale, and today, I want them to know that we share their vision..." read a prepared statement based on Campbell's annual address to the Union of B.C. Municipalities. "According to the Mining Association of B.C., this project has the potential to attract $15 billion in new capital investments and create almost 11,000 jobs, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing the reliance on dirty diesel-electric power for industry and communities."
Claims oversold?
The Northwest Transmission Line (NTL) -- which would roughly follow the Stewart-Cassiar Highway (Highway 37) for 335 kilometres from near Terrace to Bob Quinn Lake -- is vitally important to dozens of potential mines and run-of-river hydro projects in various stages of regulatory and feasibility study across a broad triangle of land between Prince Rupert, Prince George and Whitehorse. Proposed energy projects will require the NTL for ready grid access, and most of the promising mines will need it to drive their energy intensive operations.
The announcement came nearly a year after the province put the power line on hold after its funding partnership with NovaGold/Teck Cominco collapsed after the massive Galore Creek copper mine was put on hold due to rising costs.
Campbell's announcement was not only reminiscent of the massive, publically funded infrastructure projects of B.C.'s Socred past, it was also light on explaining how the actual NTL will get done. Consider the following:
- At an estimated potential cost of $400 million, the NTL will not remove a single northern community from diesel power
- The original pledge of $158 million from the owners of the Galore Creek mine is gone and other private sector partners have not been found
- The province currently has no way to predict or manage the cumulative environmental and social impacts of the dozens of mines and run-of-river hydro projects that might become economically feasible if the line is built.
Whose numbers are these?
The NTL has found new life thanks to the research and persistant prodding from a coalition of northern business development groups, mining and energy interests led by the B.C. Mining Association, which has successfully pushed the government to revive the project.
On the same day of Campbell's announcement, the B.C. Mining Association published a report highlighting the economic benefits of the NTL. It is this document that is the source of Campbell's statistics used to justify the public spending required to move the NTL forward.
"Government did its own financial analysis and they also focused on the best available public information and estimates available at the time," says Jake Jacobs, spokesman for the B.C. Ministry of Energy Mines and Petroleum Resources. "It's safe to say that if the Mining Association numbers were used in the press release, [we] were comfortable with those numbers."
Yet the B.C. Mining Association document represents little more than a wish list created by the coalition, highlighting the project details and economic potential of the most promising mines and energy projects.
"The report is pre-feasibility work [based] on interviews with all the coalition members asking 'what do you see as the future?'" said Giraud of the Mining Association of B.C. "This isn't necessarily saying that [these projects] will be here tomorrow or for sure."
Giraud says that timelines for projects were not considered in the report, and it is because so many of the projects are still speculative that the coalition only asked the BC Liberals for $10 million for environmental assessment, engineering and FN consultation.
"We don't expect the government to kick in its $250 million until there is something to tie into," he says. "But we will argue that there is enough here that if even just a portion of [proposed projects] come forward, then you'll have success."
Not that the B.C. Mining Association and coalition got all it was asking for: while their report specifically proposes the construction of a longer $600-million line terminating at Dease Lake, the province's environmental assessment will examine a line only as far as Bob Quinn Lake.
Dirty diesel forever?
Despite Campbell's Sept. 26 claim that the NTL will "bring clean power to the whole northwest region and eliminate community dependence on dirty diesel for their power," the construction of the NTL will not remove a single northern community from dirty diesel power generation.
Just three communities are in the general vicinity of the proposed line, and only two of these are currently dependent on diesel for power: Iskut is located about 100 km north of the termination of the proposed line; Telegraph Creek is even further away, located off the highway at the end of a long spur road. Dease Lake relies primarily on a small hydro dam for power.
"The line would be a catalyst to get communities off of diesel, but... will these communities get off diesel as a direct result of NTL? No," says Jacobs. "More infrastructure will be needed."
(In an April 2007 article in the Tyee, the Victoria-based Dogwood Initiative estimated that northwest communities relying on diesel power could be served at current levels of energy consumption by micro-hydro generation at a cost of $22 million.)
Although the line is clearly not designed to remove communities from diesel, it is unclear at this writing how much public money designated for "green" initiatives will be spent on the project: potential sources include the Northern Development Initiative Trust (a member of the coalition supporting the powerline), which was created with seed money from the sale of BC Rail, and a portion of the nearly $200 million federal "EcoTrust" money given to B.C. in March 2007.
In the latter case, a press release issued by the premier's office in March of 2007 named the Highway 37 electrification project as a way of "...providing clean electricity to remote rural areas now fuelled by dirty diesel."
Power options
The least expensive option for extending the grid would be to extend the existing 138-kV transmission line currently connecting Terrace to Stewart at the base of the Alaskan panhandle; at Meziadin junction, the extension could follow the Highway 37 up to Bob Quinn Lake.
The problem with this option is that such a line could only power a single large mine the size of Galore Creek, whereas the 287-kV line now championed by both the coalition and the B.C. government could power at least five big mines.
The problem with the larger option, says the Pembina Institute program strategist and senior policy analyst Jaisel Vadgama, is the absence of adequate planning processes to mediate the rate of growth and impacts of such a potential energy and mineral rush.
"In B.C., we don't have very good processes for planning on a regional scale, in terms of cumulative ecological thresholds, or how much development people want in the region," says Vadgama, who has studied the plans for the line. "This means the decision determining the [capacity] of the power line will determine in and of itself how many mines you will build in the region."
Vadgama says that while people certainly want jobs and access to resource revenues, they might not want five large-scale mines operating in relatively close proximity -- or more exactly, the cumulative environmental and social impacts inherent to such boom and bust scenarios.
"What would make sense is to have a planning process, saying 'let's look at this region and consider community needs, economic factors and ecological thresholds,'" he says. "Bring government, industry and First Nations and other communities to a table to set out a blueprint for how many mines... maybe that leads to one mine, or even two, but probably not five."
Who's willing to pay?
The $158 million Galore Creek contribution to the NTL is off the table, which leaves the province holding a bag containing just $250 million.
So who is willing to pay? The B.C. Mining Association report that Gordon Campbell quoted in his Sept. 26 press release and announcement is markedly less optimistic on this subject:
"...most of the developers of the mining and IPP projects need to raise additional capital to conclude the development of their projects. Consequently, most of the developers have only limited immediate capability of funding a capital contribution."
Of all the big mining projects planned in the northwest, the Schaft Creek project north of Bob Quinn Lake is among the most advanced mines proposed for the area, and its feasibility planning thus far has assumed it will tap the NTL by 2013.
"The concept of contributing to the line is acceptable to us, when we get to that position," says Guillermo Salazar, president and CEO of majority project owner Copper Fox Metals Inc. of Calgary. "The project will be a lot easier to evaluate with knowing that the line is going to be there."
Salazar notes that the volatility of cost makes diesel power impractical, and that the construction of a dedicated run-of-river project to power the mine is unrealistic because such a source is intermittent and unable to meet their enormous power requirements.
All of which brings this back to the powerline, and the need for more private sector money to make it happen. Byng Giraud notes that the $10 million Gordon Campbell has promised to kick-start the environmental assessment and consultations will inevitably lead to an infusion of private money.
"We're realists and we know there has to be a private sector partner in this," says Giraud. "We are the primary demanders of this, and probably the initial primary beneficiaries, too."
Related Tyee stories:
- Huge 'Green' Boondoggle?
Critics claim $300 million will be wasted on BC 'clean energy' project. - The Hook: Campbell's Highway 37 plan an expensive way to cut emissions
- Inside BC's Mining Boom
Why billions are pouring in for copper, coal, uranium.
![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
- BC snuffs out AirCare test program
- AFN national chief Shawn Atleo to launch re-election bid
- Citizens group releases video to fight undead Bill C-30
- Conservative MP says he might vote against budget, then 'clarifies' his position
- Genetically modified plants won't take root with councillors in Richmond, BC
- Hundreds at Vancouver rally to support Quebec students
- Could Fort Mac become an eco-tourist hotspot?
- Rick Hansen's Man in Motion anniversary tour concludes in Vancouver
- The Gem of Canadian Science that Harper Killed
- Who Mowed Down the Premier?
- Canada's Economy, Deconstructed (by a 12 year-old)
- Death in Remand: a Tyee Inquiry
- Now Is the Time to Talk up Big Ideas
- Sexism Tinges Criticism of Teachers' Job Action
- Bill C-38: the Environmental Destruction Act
- Death In Remand: 'A Gut Feeling'
- Bias in BC's Pesticide Decision? Follow the Bouncing Verbs
- The Ethics of Addiction Studies
- The Gem of Canadian Science that Harper Killed
- Sexism Tinges Criticism of Teachers' Job Action
- Now Is the Time to Talk up Big Ideas
- The Ethics of Addiction Studies
- Bill C-38: the Environmental Destruction Act
- Alberta Fills Pipes with Corrosive Denial
- Bias in BC's Pesticide Decision? Follow the Bouncing Verbs
- How Our Immune Systems Exaggerate Fear
- BC biotech company seeks approval for GM apple
- What's Behind BC's Doors?
- The Ethics of Addiction Studies
- What's Behind BC's Doors?
- The Gem of Canadian Science that Harper Killed
- Sexism Tinges Criticism of Teachers' Job Action
- Should You Run from that Medical Test?
- 'The Dictator'
- Death in Remand: Stacked Deck
- 'Moonrise Kingdom'
- From Financial Advisor to Occupier
- Seven Goals to Build the Conservative 'Dream'
- Double lung recipient dances on Ellen show
- ISS astronauts grab DragonX space capsule by the tail with Canada Arm
- Metro Vancouver gas prices peak at record levels
- Ottawa posts $9-billion deficit in March despite pledge to avoid spending spree
- BC phases out AirCare to focus on fighting bigger vehicle emissions
- Tsunami senors to be dropped into deep sea off of Vancouver Island
- Student groups file court challenge against Quebec protest law
- ...while on the streets, pirates and ninjas put aside mutual animosity to join student protests
50
Login or register to post comments
egmont rapids
3 years ago
I wouldn`t lay a saw buck
With Campbell down 11 points in the polls,with Gregor robertson winning Vancouver mayoral race and Sather winning maple ridge mayoral race.
Liberals/corporate cronies are falling fast.
Gordon Campbell has 6 months to start or to lock in any new projects,thats it,he`s done,period!
Campbell has done non stop ads since june,the carbon tax theme,then all those personal tax cuts,now the fancy t.v ad running,newspaper,outdoor signs, photo-ops,news broadcast speeches, 100 million dollars in ads!
And what does Gordon Campbell have to show for it, 11 points and 12 points down in the latest Ipsos reid polls!
As for mines,didn`t a zinc mine close in Campbell river last week, 300 jobs gone,commodity prices are flat and falling
I expect Campbell to be hospitalized with a nervous breakdown within the next month,maybe even before the legislature opens!
Jeffrey J.
3 years ago
Trend of Incompetence Continues
This initiative of the neocon BC premiere is typical of right wing regimes. They have eschewed government projects for so long, they no longer know how to build or execute a successful policy, except giving public wealth away to private corporations. This trend is likely to continue, especially under Campbell's influence. Our loss. Great article!
G West
3 years ago
Ummm
Campbell's announcement was made on Sept 26...the reader should note this was prior to the provincial government realizing that the economic downturn was going to hit the province - perhaps he hadn't got the note from the Finance minister - you remember when Hansen told a radio show that... “we have seen the projections from provincial revenues collapse in the last six weeks to the tune of billions of dollars.”
Like a lot of Gordon Campbell's promises, this one illustrates more about its maker than his grasp of reality.
Michael
3 years ago
Related Tyee Stories?
It's odd that the related stories function didn't link to the Tyee story North Island Dreams of Better Days, an article bemoaning shrinking opportunities in the North and the need for more government investment.
Ronald Pagan
3 years ago
You really think that's odd?
You really think that's odd?
G West
3 years ago
What's odd?
I take it you mean this story:
http://thetyee.ca/News/2008/08/06/NorthIsland/
monty
3 years ago
BBC carried stories on economic downturn last April
Suggest the tyee send this story to the Seattle Times, Seattle Post Intelligencer, Globe and Mail and NY Times--all of whom have published stories about BC and the bizarre goings on here in the past week.
There is a rampant social disease--it's called lack of honesty, absence of ethics, you name it. Take your choice. As for the Finance Min. just discovering there is an economic downturn that's as credible as Flaherty and Harper who said our economy is sound, our banks are fine before the election. Then, oops after the election "We may have to run a deficit" when in fact there was a deficit in August. Now they are shovelling money to the banks!
Keep fit--watch the comedy channels.
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
The Catalyst...
The catalyst for the northwest transmission line was the $2 billion Galore Creek gold/copper deposit along that same corridor.
Unfortunately, development costs for Galore Creek escalated to $5 billion and the project was put on hold. Currently, it is undergoing a new design plan to slash the astronomical rise in development costs.
And then you have the Schaft Creek mineral project mentioned in this story.
Good idea and welcomed up north. Get the environmental assessment certificate for the transmission line and be ready when the eventual development in the region begins.
Northwest BC has always had BC's highest levels of unemployment and many in the region look forward to these developments.
After reading some of the above comments... I must ask... Is this Carole James position???? If that's the case, the current NDP-held Skeena riding (which includes Terrace) is a swing constituency and now may very well drift back to the Liberals in 2009.
cboo44
3 years ago
Hydro Power to the North
Yes, God forbid that any taxpayers money be spent "Beyond Hope". The typical urban latte` crowd doesn't care where their juice actually comes from, they just demand that it be there. To hell with the other 85% of BC that actually PRODUCES the provincial basis for wealth and GPP.
This transmission line is part of the infrastructure for the Site "C" power generation project that WILL go ahead. You see, NIMBY urbanites don't want local, clean hydro generation(even BC Hydro owned and operated run of river) to spoil their aethetics, so we have to build a huge (out of sight, out of mind) generation project in the NORTH, where "other people" live and would like to work and raise families. "Work" involves "industry" to provide high paying jobs to sustain the higher costs of living in the NORTH. The spin-off jobs CREATED by industry in the NORTH are what NIMBY urbanites depend on to make a living and buy their latte`, even if they don't realize it.
Ronald Pagan
3 years ago
cost-benefit
The value of northern employment would have to be astronomical for this project to pass the cost-benefit test.
freebear
3 years ago
Government Subsidizes Development
So for all those free market stalwarts who say that government should stay out of their way and their business, what say you?
Oh I see, you play both sides when its to your advantage!
Free market: free to be greedy and mess things up and then expect the governments of the world (read: taxpayers) to bail them out!
Wind farms would aready be built on Northern Vancouver Island if the Premier would pay to increase the transmission capacity from the north end, south to Campbell River (more social and environmental benefit too I think).
Of course it may be hard to sell offshore oil & gas drilling with wind turbines generating electricity operating in the vicinity!
What else is the provincial government going to deliver to their corporate and individual buddies before election day?
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Economic Opportunities...
To re-iterate, the proposed $400 million northwest transmission line will never get built by BCTC until there is a firm decision for the Galore Creek mine to proceed.
Of that $400 million, Galore Creek will contribute $158 million leaving $242 million for the province, unless another mine operator decides to tie into the system and contribute.
But the bigger economic story is this:
Galore Creek:
Construction Jobs: 1,000;
Permanent Jobs: 500;
Taxes: $560 million (over 20-year life)
Schaft Creek
Construction Jobs: 2,100;
Permanent Jobs: 700;
Taxes: N/A
With numbers like those (just two out of a potential many), the business case in terms of benefits certainly overwhelms the costs.
During the interim, the only thing occuring is the $10 million costs estimated to be incurred in terms of moving things along in the Environment Assessment process.
PS. egmont rapids... the last BC Ipsos poll was in mid-June showing the Liberals with a comfortable lead. The last BC poll was by Environics (yesterday) still showing the Liberals in the lead.
RickW
3 years ago
One would think......
.....that a conscientious government, concerned with the welfare of the citizens, would negotiate an agreement that would see the mining companies underwriting the transmission line, as part of their infrastructure costs.
Given the volatility of the marketplace into the forseeable future, to have the government commit itself to the construction of this line, when the proposed mines could easily be "on again, off again" for the next several years, would be foolish to the extreme. It would be the equivalent of the highways and bridges to nowehere that we hear about now and then.
Much better to have the mining companies build the line, as part of THEIR commitment.
UnCivilizedEngineer
3 years ago
NTL not related to Site C
Quote: "This transmission line is part of the infrastructure for the Site "C" power generation project that WILL go ahead."
Not even close to Site C.
Refer to page 23 of the MABC report, though, and one notes that there are 1000s of potential run-of-river sites. Not all are related to the NTL, but potential for 7,000 construction and ~100 permanent jobs in the < $150/MW category.
It's too bad Edziza plateau is a park. Some of BC's best geothermal is there.
cghzd
3 years ago
liberal mole
It's nice to know that the Tyee has their very own not so clandestine liberal mole.He appears to have a research department, how else would his facts and figures show up in with in minutes of a story being posted.Guys like this are put in place to sew a little doubt on any subject that is deemed to be critical of our current sleazy group of thugs we call a government. Most of the contributors know who he is and I for one go on to something else outside of the Tyee to get my news and opinion fix when I see his comments. I wonder if he does radio too?
sdgreen
3 years ago
BCLiberal Energy Policy just wrong
The entire BC Liberal energy policy is completely wrong!
Instead of permitting BCHydro to do the right things, the BCLiberals have dictated to the corporation to do nothing except capital maintenance projects and save money via massive taxes to promote conservation.
BCHydro should be given the authority to 'provide' electrical service in the most efficent manner possible; to advance clean power either hydro electric, or alternate clean technologies.
The BS surrounding the issuance of private power generation must be abolished; they will provide nothing compared to the cost to produce.
We are talking mega projects here that BC Hydro must be the leader.
The BCTC should be abolished and returned to the management of BC Hydro; hydro pays for the bloody corporation anyway.
The BCLiberals totally screwed British Columbians on this issue, mind you the NDP really have no plan neither.
cboo44
3 years ago
Power to the North
"Quote: "This transmission line is part of the infrastructure for the Site "C" power generation project that WILL go ahead."
Not even close to Site C."
Should I have said Site "C" power distribution, David?
egmont rapids
3 years ago
Good news abound
I told you about the polls,this is the 3rd angus Reid poll and you now know why Gordon Campbell is hiding the last 2 Ipsos Reid polls!
Have a read,have a smile!
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=c84d1d7bd6b2-4403-98c4-dfe5b60d5f87
egmont rapids
3 years ago
I try again on that link
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=c84d1d7b-d6b2-4403-98c4-dfe5b60d5f87
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
egmont rapids...
Ya may take the following with a grain of salt but anyhooo...
Both Mustel and Ipsos have been polling BC for over a decade and each have mirrored each others results during that time period. Both are quite accurate in terms of actual BC election results.
The last Mustel and Ipsos surveys were released in early/mid-June respectively, summer is not a good time to poll and they did not poll during the federal election due to the potential skewing of results/confusion factor.
OTOH, Angus Reid Strategies has never polled BC politically before and has no track record in that arena. In fact, this represents only their second publicly released opinion poll.
Furthermore, ARS engages exclusively in "online" polling, which is an entirely new frontier and they do not have "margins of error" akin to regular polling methodology.
As Evi Mustel, president of Mustel, stated after the first ARS BC poll was released in August, the people participating in online polls tend to be "less educated" and "less gainfully employed".
Case in point. ARS conducted an 800-sample size online poll during the last federal election in Saskatchewan resulting in CPC - 45%, NDP - 35%, a "10% spread". The actual election result a few days later was CPC - 55%, NDP - 25%, a "30% spread".
That's a whopping "20% spread" differential between the poll result and actual result. Extremely Wayyyyyyy off.
Environics also released a BC poll a few days ago showing the Liberals in the lead here in BC. The problem was the sample size was 250... should be at least 400 - 500 for accuracy purposes.
Both Mustel and Ipsos should also be releasing BC poll results within the next four weeks.
And if the NDP leads in those polls, then you will have somethin' to crow about.
Ricardo
3 years ago
Power to California?
One has to wonder if Gordon Campbell is going to build this power line to satisfy his committments to the Independent Power Producers. After all, the planned river diversion projects of the northwest need to get their product to the California market somehow.This initiative may be more about getting the privately produced power out of the north at the expense of the residents of B.C. We need a public enquiry regarding this rapidly growing private energy industry. Campbell and his energy plan are selling off our land, water and environment to produce power for the California market. B.C. Hydro and B.C. residents are taking all the environmental and economic risk.
egmont rapids
3 years ago
You wrong again
Luke it is far more more likely that weathy more affluent voters would be far more versed in computers.
The poor peasent/uneducated NDP voters are to busy breaking rocks,flipping burgers and collecting cans and bottles!
As for the latest Ipsos Reid polls--Luke you and I know that those latest Ipsos polls have already been done,Campbell and the Canwest team have had them burned and buried.
Not to mention Gordon Campbell has been electioneering with almost 100 million in ads since june 2008 to present,as well as a 15 minute spotlight on all the news outlets,every photo-op,tons of olympic ads,announcements everyday and Campbell just finished the Whistler convention which came with front page exposure all over the province!
Your methadology in assesing who is or is not more likely to be a on-line user is ass backwards!
Luke---You also stated Campbell was going to win both bi-elections! --10.000.00
The poll had a very telling number in it, a mere 20% of those polled believed Campbell was "honest and trustworthy"
Canseco stated that " For someone going for a third term those numbers were very concerning"
Lets face it Luke, besides the majority thinking Campbell is a asshole, 80% of the people believe Gordon Campbell is a lying sack of shit!
Those numbers can`t be turned.
Double or nothing?
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
egmont rapids...
Here it is from the horse's mouth:
egmont rapids
3 years ago
Polls please
Luke,stop playing around,when was the last plublished Canwest/Ipsos reid poll?
I believe it was may
Are you expecting me to or anyone else to believe the Campbell/cawest team has not done a poll?
Of course they have,you know it,I know it!
Why do you think the coq tolls came off/And still the polls wouldn`t budge in favour of the BC Liberals
Then came another advertizing blitz by Campbell,then Campbell hijacked the airways with his economic announcements/more (alledged)tax cuts/then came the Liberal convention in Whistler,with more announcements/property tax deferment/rural roads spending and more front page coverage in the major BC papers!
The whole time radio ads/news paper ads/on-line ads/photo-ops/ the ads still haven`t stopped.
None of this would of happened without Campbell knowing that the --Propriatory property in the form of Canwest Global/BC Liberal polls conducted by Ipsos Reid along with BC Liberal internal polls showed that the Campbell goverment is falling fast!
In the angus reid poll even of the 39% who said they would vote for the BC Liberals the majority of them said Gordon Campbell is "NOT HONEST AND TRUSTWORTHY"
After 7 years in power for Campbell to have 80% say he is not trustworthy or honest is bad news for Campbell!
Prediction--2 NDP MLAs will become mayors today,Gregor Robertson(VAN) --Sather(maple ridge)
By the way, Ladner was asked on a radio debate who his favorite politician was,his answere "Gordon Campbell" need I say more!
BC Liberals have one hope/Campbell must step down--But his overblown ego won`t allow him to do-it!
happy
3 years ago
Hi Egmont
Hey neighbour, hope all is well. I notced you didn't draw readers attention to the "Comments" section under your Vancouver Sun poll like you have before with similiar polls.
Is that b/c of the 15 comments registered only 6 support the NDP? And 2 of those are you and GWest. Perfect!
As well, you seem to have glossed over some other numbers. Respondents say Gordo is beter Premier material than Carole 34 -32. Close enough I guess, but look at those numbers who voters trust with the purse strings - 41 to 18.
Thats gotta hurt.
Off topic, but did Rafe get back to you on that email you were sending him about the 15000 rivers? I need some resource material for another thread.
Cheers!
egmont rapids
3 years ago
Hi Happy
If you don`t believe me,check out the Audio Vault
Cue up August/29--9.00 am--fast foward to 9.07 am --have a real good listen.
there was a Angus Reid poll on august 27th which had the NDP up 3 Points.
On August 29th--At 9.07 Am---Keith Baldrey states " Well I am not to sure about this poll,I will be really interested in the Ipsos reid and Mustel Poll that will be out shortly"
Well Happy,well Luke,what does shortly mean?
There has been both a mustel poll and 2 Ipsos Reid polls since august 27th--The polls and results have been buried,Campbell said the samething after that August27th poll " On-line poll is un-reliable"
Do you really think Campbell would not do all he could to have another poll done?
Here is the audio vault,cue up august 29th-9.00 am.listen to what Baldrey says!
http://cknwam.corusradionetwork.com/emmis/AudioVault.cfm
Have a listen,then we`ll talk.
egmont rapids
3 years ago
Happy
here are 2 links
http://www.citizensforpublicpower.ca/issues/water
http://www.citizensforpublicpower.ca/files/uploads/Fall_2007_DM_E2_Collateral_ROR_Map.pdf
I don`t want to quibble,they make reference to over 600 hundred water licenses for ROR
Check out the map!
G West
3 years ago
happy
You won't be surprised to learn that I never, by choice, read the Vancouver Sun.
The only reason I bothered to post the comment was because egmont brought it to my attention.
The suggestion that commenters to an online comment facility at a newspaper which is basically broke, whose newsroom is empty and which was, when it had any money, a great supporter of the current corrupt government means about as much as the observation (which i read around here all the time and which is equally fallacious) that everyone who posts here at Tyee is a shill for labour unions.
I'd only observe, relative to polls, that the Angus Reid firm hit the result of the Federal election with almost preternatural accuracy.
My only interest in this debate is disclosing how utterly fraudulent are the claims that Gordon Campbell has been good for this province.
Four more years of that kind of 'good' and it won't be any more than a suburb Calgary.
As for Carole James, I'll take a modest honest person any time over a crook.
happy
3 years ago
Sakinaw
Your ROR source is as meaningless to me as the Fraser Institute would be to you. The Board is dominated by Public Union honcho's. Hidden agenda obviously. :)
And not to quibble, it makes reference to 500 water APPLICATIONS.
To the polls, I really have no comment. I was just keeping you a little honest with the numbers you "omitted" It may very well be the Libs are trailimg. What goes around comes around is my motto. There are even some who claim the polls are cooked to "light a fire" under the Libs lest the barbarians attemot to retake the castle.
Conspiracy theories abound
egmont rapids
3 years ago
Wrong Happy
That first link states that over 600 water licenses have been granted to RUN of River projects, but who wants to quibble!
As for me not quoting all the numbers in the last poll,I quoted the main ones 44% ndp---39% liberals---80% say Campbell is dishonest not trustworthy,it doesn`t really matter who people think are better at running the economy if they aren`t going to vote for them!
As for lighting a fire under the BC Liberals
100 million in advertizing,15 minutes of prime time hijacked T.V.--photo-ops,announcements etc etc etc
The Liberals are trailing,falling,numbers are dropping like a stone and the NDP have had NO EXPOSURE,wait until the NDP drops some land mines on Campbell next week in the legislature.
Wait until the NDP make the link between Vanoc/Millennium and how the city of Vancouver through Millennium got 3 million dollars to Vanoc who still has a 67 million dollar deficit!
happy
3 years ago
Point taken West
But its not really the newspaper that is broke is it. Its Canwest, a company that got in over its head with too much debt so that now the entire chain is suffering cutbacks. Poor mangement.
Be honest though, you post links to Canwest artcles now and then when they publish critical articles on Gordo. Nothing wrong with that.
I see in that article Egmont gave us Carole says she won't run on the NDP's past record. Why not?
One final thought. I read in the paper commodity prices have crashed 50%. I would imagine that puts in the same range they were in the 90's. Do you think the Libs will run huge deficets now as the NDP was "forced" to in the 90's?
Because I have read time and time again (here) high commodity prices are the ONLY reason Gordo balanced the budget.
egmont rapids
3 years ago
Happy/Luke
please explain how MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION a over budget/needing a 100 million dollar bailout company can afford to give VANOC 3 MILLION DOLLARS!
This is/was a backdoor way to funnel money to Vanoc?
Is that the cost BCers have to pay to get VANOC 3 Million--100 million?
How much more money has been funneled to Millennium in the form of a cost over-run only to make its way to Vanoc?
Some very interesting questions indeed,bankrupt company has 3 million or more to give to Vanoc!
Here is the link
http://westcoastindienews.blogspot.com/2008/11/follow-money-trail-part-2-all-good.html
happy
3 years ago
To clarify Egmont
From your link:
As of October 1, 2008
Current
Licences 113
Points of diversion 116
Applications
Licences 559
Points of diversion 674
Don't lump Applications in with Licences. It hurts your argument when you embellish. And you're firing sideways again, Mellinium is not the topic. There are plenty of threads going on that elsewhere.
G West
3 years ago
Deficits
I think Gordon Campbell, if re-elected, will make Bill Bennett look like a wild spender...he'll cut everything that moves in order to try and avoid running a deficit - and he's clearly going to use the revenue from the gas tax to make it look as though things are better than they actually are - by recognizing the revenue in fiscal 2008 even though it's not really revenue (covered by a contingent liability).
As for CanWest, I think they're done for. The financing for their purchases of the specialty cable channels is going to do them in.
Carole James doesn't have a record to run on - Campbell does, and for all his effort to run against the NDP from the Nineties, it just won't wash.
Right now reports from the Premier's office indicate they're eating each other trying to figure out who to blame for the Carbon Tax...
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
egmont rapids...
Nonsense. To reiterate, Ipsos and Mustel have not been in the field/released a BC opinion poll since June.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3968
http://www.mustelgroup.com/pdf/20080626.pdf
They didn't poll during the holiday summer months and did not poll during the federal writ period and thereafter due to potential skewed results/voter confusion.
Both Evi Mustel (Mustel) confirmed that here:
http://bc2009.com/2008/09/09/mustel-confirms-no-provincial-polling/#comments
... and Kyle Braid (Ipsos) confirmed that on federal election night on Global News that Ipsos would wait at least a few more weeks for the aforesaid reasons.
I would expect both of them to be out relatively shortly (within 4 weeks).
Your second man on the grassy knoll theory is a bit overboard. :)
egmont rapids
3 years ago
Happy
I enjoy diversions, hint hint,maybe the tyee will put up another Millennium story.
As for this topic,no-one is coming up with money for a northern transmission line, all mining operations are on hold,falling commodity prices!
As for oil and gas,did you notice how small the last bonus auction was?
As for many Run of River projects,the credit crunch,will take it`s toll,especially small micro operations,like everything else Campbell has planned or tried to predict has failed,all Gordon Campbells predictions were based on exponetial growth on reality,commodities,consumer wealth,hell even George Bush today mentioned the possibility of a world wide DEPRESSION!
P.S. happy,why the hell you havn`t been run out of town yet is beyond me,you must be one of those closet Liberals! (Roberts Creek) TREE HUGGER CENTRAL, have you bought any locally made bee honey? Hope you don`t get stung!
happy
3 years ago
Thanks Egmont!
"P.S. happy,why the hell you havn`t been run out of town yet is beyond me,you must be one of those closet Liberals! (Roberts Creek) TREE HUGGER CENTRAL, have you bought any locally made bee honey? Hope you don`t get stung!"
You made me laugh again this morning! You have a way with words.
You're absolutely right, I've learned how to fly under the radar in RC. When I come home from working in the city I park the Mercedes in a locked garage and then tool around town in a rusted out VW bus with a Green Party sticker on the bumper. No one knows the truth!
But think about it. We look just like you! The next time you're having a cold one that guy sitting at the end of the bar who looks like a local grizzled unemployed logger could actually be....!
reallife
3 years ago
Egmont
Quote:
"As for oil and gas,did you notice how small the last bonus auction was?"
$115 million dollars is small? This much money covers lots of welfare cheques and helps subsidize ferry travel to the coastal communities.
I do not agree with everything the Liberal government has done but it certainly has helped increase the revenue the province gets from the oil and gas industry. For example, in the last year of the previous government the November sale only brought $10 million. The total take for 2000 was only $248 million which is one-tenth the $2.5 billion realized so far in 2008.
zalm
3 years ago
Who increased the revenue?
Not the Liberals.
The raw commodity price of gas tripled then fell back to double, making economical the exploration of marginal fields.
The substitutionary price of oil quadrupled in this time, and supply was restricted by a variety of factors, including unfortunate political choices made by our greatest customer for natural gas.
All this demand has served to raise the demand for gas, and encourage the exploration for it as well, without one single change in exploration policy. All the policy you are looking at was created in 1998 under protest by the resources companies.
Were the Fiberals really interested in getting good taxpayer value for the buck, they would be toying with increases to royalty rates to maximize returns to the taxpayer while minimizing losses to the drilling industry, in accordance with the policy of Louis the XIV's minister of Finance Jean Colbert, who advised the king "to pluck the greatest number of feathers of the goose with the least amount of hissing."
egmont rapids
3 years ago
Reallife
Oil and gas sales are only a temporary fix,gas reserves are finite.The benefit to communities and workers is puny compared forestry,the fact that Campbell has counted on this finite resource is a very slippery slope.
The same with gambling,gambling revenue in 2000 was about 300 million a year,Campbell ran on a no-expansion of gambling platform,gambling revenue last year was over 1.3 billion dollars,again Campbell has lied and led us down this slippery slope,the social cost are very high!
As for your assertion about ferry subsidies is all wrong!
The sea to sky highway upgrade is a 3.6 billion dollar expense, 800 million for construction and the remainder is paid out over 25 years.
Well if you do the math,the builder will be paid after construction costs, 300.000.00 a day for 25 years,roughly 100 million dollars a year!
The BC ferry fleet services a population of over 1 million people,how many does the sea to sky serve?
No where near that!
Whats the difference,100 million for ferries or 100 million for 1 road?
The ferry fleet employs a large work force,moves tourists around our province,the revenue generated by the ferry fleet moving people and goods around the province is in the tens of billions of dollars,sea to sky doesn`t even come close!
Sudsidy for ferries,no such animal,just shut down the ferries and watch BCs economy collapse.in fact it would more economically wise to cut ferry fares in half or more,all that money and more would be spent in the economy generating far more goverment revenue than the loss of fares.
What Campbell has based the future on is false,houses prices will rise forever along with commodities and investments,his ideoligy has failed,there is nothing to fall back on, what good is bulk payments to goverment when the people are broke?The goverment would be better off with smaller monies coming in but people with full pockets.
Reallife,I don`t expect you to understand that,if you think the Russian model or the Venezeualla model is appropiate(goverments flush but citizens broke)have at her.
Gordon Campbell trickle down economy has been a utter failure,6 years of cyclical boom with every penny and more squandered,tens and tens of billions added to BC debt not 1 dime paid towards debt and all aspect of the social fabric of the province in complete dissaray,6 straight years leading the nation in child poverty/25%--Thats 1 in every 4 children living in poverty.
I would love to go back to the doom and gloom of the 90s! And if you ask the majority of BCers you will get the same answere!
As for the transmission line north,ain`t going to happen,Gordon Campbell has 6 months left,he`s gone and good ridance!
Cheers
HawkEyes
3 years ago
“dirty diesel”
Who knows why diesel, traditionally half the price of gas, always costs more now-who gets that windfall? Can’t blame Katrina…the increase is too recent?
Diesel isn’t dirty, gasoline is filthy.
A good diesel vehicle leaves the smallest footprint.
Diesel supports living organisms; gasoline fumes are toxic.
How can anyone forget this legacy?
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20000320/kitman
Diesel delivered a lot of the power this society is built on; slamming it is thankless.
What’s this legacy about?
http://www.blacklistednews.com/news-1369-0-13-13--.html
(And scientists don’t know what’s wrong with bees.)
Jaccard is clueless, Penner can’t fathom anything he can’t lay his eyes on and the self appointed one can only parrot “dirty diesel”.
That’s getting old, even if needed to defend that Not Charcoal & Not A Tax Tax. You just wonder what this scam is.
Our over paid politicians and scientists should try thinking about more than deep pockets and photo-ops; there’s a lot more going on than what Gore pointed out.
My son wonders if the tons (daily) of evaporated gasoline nano-particles aren’t magnifying the suns’ rays... Now, that’s what you call a thought, boys.
Ronald Pagan
3 years ago
EDITED FOR PERSONAL INSULTS analysis Luke Skywalker
The 400 million capital cost is upfront. The royalties received from the mine need to be discounted over the 20 years.
So if we use a conservative discount rate of 8% and assume that the $560 million can be divided equally over a twenty year period then the present value of the tax receipts are $274 million. Well below the construction costs.
Also, you fail to acknowledge the incremental new demand that these mines will add to the peak. Meaning that BC Hydro will have to acquire additional peak supply which is not trivial.
So, I guess that I would say that your analysis doesn't pass the sniff test.
happy
3 years ago
106 mil Egmont
You've got lots of good points but you often make statements that blow them. Such as this one:
"Sudsidy for ferries,no such animal"
Thats a popular myth that the Ferry Workers union always tries to insinuate but just not true. The fact is:
"BC Ferries offers ferry service under a service contract with the Province of BC. Through this contract, the government pays BC Ferries a defined annual subsidy or “service fee” in return for making specified numbers of ferry sailings on specified routes, with a maximum total value of some $106 million per year."
egmont rapids
3 years ago
Happy
Again you miss the point,the point is --Sea to sky has subsidies that every taxpayer pays throughout the province,yet there are NO TOLLS.
The spin off from ferries and the general economy into the provincial coffers is in the billions.
No tolls on the 566 million dollar Bill Bennett floating bridge in Kelowna,who pays for that? Everyone
Who is going to pay for the 1 billion dollar olympic security bill? everyone
Who reaps the reward from the billions in economis activity from ferry dependent communities,the Province!
And in case you didn`t know Happy the langdale run from horseshoe bay to Langdale has made millions of dollars every year for decades,how come WE have to sudsidize the ferry to gabriola Island or the ferry to Galiano Island?
The BC water routes are an extension of highways,like the Albion ferry,everyone pays,you can bet your last dollar that if the municipalities around ferry terminals were all Liberal ridings the fares would be half what they are!
If the ferries were half price millions more people would go for road trips,island trips and the monies spent would far out weigh any loss revenue to the province!
What I am talking about is raising fees to the point of DIMINISHING RETURNS, the more you charge the less people travel requiring raising of fees to make up for the shortfall!
Example,if you can only get 3000 people in a stadium because the tickets are 100.00$ but if you lower the tickets to 25.00$ you get 40.000 people in the stadium, all buying dogs and drinks and mini doughnuts and paying for parking,which is better?
Try to think outside the box Happy!
happy
3 years ago
ER
You are claiming there are alternate routes to Sqaumish and Kelowna.
What alternate routes? I don't think driving to Sqaumish from Vancouver by way of Lilloette makes a hell of a lot of sense. Or driving to Kelwona by way of Vernon. Don't be silly. For PRACTICAL purposes they are the only route. Hence no tolls. The Golden Ears bridge will be tolled and so will the new PM bridge when built. They do have alternate routes that don't involve driving ten times the distance.
I know the Langdale route is one of the three profitable routes and I agree 100% the little islanders should pay a larger part of their share. We are "subsidizing" them. Lets start with Bowen Island. They're a noisy bunch with lower fares (by distance travelled) and better service than what we get.
"Try to think outside the box Happy!"
I'm trying buts its hard for us low brow neocons. Please be patient with me. There might be hope I can come around.
egmont rapids
3 years ago
Happy
You can drive to Whistler without using the sea to sky,it just takes a little longer and they already had a perfectly adequate road before the up-grade.
The drive around Kelowna lake is not that long of a drive and again they had a perfectly good bridge before the up-grade,if these were brand new road and bridge projects that would be diffrent,they aren`t,we all ready have a fantastic bought and paid for port mann bridge.
By the wat the Kelowna bridge was a P3--1oo plus million for construction and they remainder to be paid out over 20 years,the maintenance that the builder gets for the Kelowna bridge works out to----10.000.00 a day for maintenance and the bridge is a whole 0.9 of a kilometer long.
Talk about a builder bonanza on these P3s --300.000.00 a day for whistler maintenance for 25 years--10.000.00 a day for for 20 years for a short little bridge,all with alternate routes all with no tolls!
Remember the puttella bridge is going to tolled as well,so where is the alternate route? The alex fraser,the tunnel? Those diversions around are much farther and longer than the drive around the lake.
Anyways I am glad your willing to pay the rip-off for 25 years for infrastructure that we will rarely if ever use!
Lets just pay 10 billion dollars for a bridge to the island and that should be free because there is no other way to drive there!
happy
3 years ago
What?
"You can drive to Whistler without using the sea to sky,it just takes a little longer and they already had a perfectly adequate road before the up-grade."
Just takes a little longer? By what route?
Perfectly adequate? Thats why its been known as the Killer Highway for the past forty years eh. I used to work at the Woodfibre sawmill in my younger days. They were talking about upgrades way back then, it just kept getting put off by whatever Govt was in power. Hwy 101 is like a freeway compared to the old 99 before upgrades.
When was the last time you drove to Kelowna. 1972? That bridge has been a parking lot for as long as I can remember. And you consider driving 60 K's up to Vernon, then 60 more back down to Kelowna as "not that long of a drive" compared to the 0.9 K bridge.
Maybe I'll be just stay in my box after all :)
egmont rapids
3 years ago
Happy
The alternate route to Whitler is a 4 hour detour but you can drive there,as for the Kelowna bridge being a parking lot so is the port mann bridge.
Even after the port mann gets twinned it will still be a parking lot,one stall,one snow flake,the only diffrence is it will be a PAY PARKING LOT.
As for the sea to sky being a killer highway,it will still be a killer highway,partly because of the aggressive ski crowd plus the likes of the Gordon campbell crowd(glug glug glug) and the fact that people get up so early to go skiing and they are all pooped out on the return trip!
But mainly it`s dangerous because of GLUG GLUG GLUG Gordons!
happy
3 years ago
Have it your way
Vancouver-Whistler 120 K 1.5 hrs
Vancouver-Lilloette-Pemberton-Whistler 450 K 6 hrs
Whistler was a (literally) garbage dump when I used to work in Sqaumish. No agressive ski crowds or glug-glug-glug Gordos on the road back then when it first got its reputation. Many poor souls were killed b/c of washed out bridges and rockslides. I'm a little dissapointed in you
No further comments
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Ronald Pagan...
So let me get this straight. If/when Galore Creek goes ahead with its capital investment of between $2 billion - $5 billion the Galore Creek concern has already agreed to contribute $158 million toward the power line leaving $242 million for the province.
A net present value to the province of $274 million - $242 million = $32 million. And that's even before others come on board financially such as Schaft Creek, etc.
Now aside from the estimated taxes in the amount of $560 million generated over a 20-year life of just Galore Creek these figures should also not be overlooked:
Construction Jobs: 1,000;
Permanent Jobs: 500;
The employment opportunities for the high unemployment northwest region as well as the personal taxes/retail economic spin-offs resulting therefrom.
To re-iterate... that's just from Galore Creek alone.
I hope Carole James is gonna go up to the northwest/Terrace area and say the same thing. ;)