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Rival Pollsters Declare Victory
Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid each say they predicted best.
Pollster Angus Reid: rivals 'have some answering to do.'
The B.C. Liberals weren't the only ones claiming victory after Tuesday's provincial election.
Pollsters Angus Reid Strategies and Ipsos Reid were also quick to claim wins.
The election result -- Liberals, 46 per cent; New Democrats, 42 per cent; Green party, eight per cent; B.C. Conservatives, two per cent -- fell within the stated margin of error of both pollsters.
It's true that this claim is complicated by the fact that some experts and pollsters hold that online polls like the ones used by Reid should not carry a margin of error.
Pollsters will tell you that all they can do is hope the final result falls within their margin of error. But for what it's worth, Reid came the closest of the three main B.C. pollsters to the Election Night popular vote results. Reid's final poll, conducted May 5 and 6, showed the Liberals at 44 per cent (down two from the final result); the NDP at 42 per cent (identical to the Reid result); the Greens at 10 per cent (+2); and the B.C. Conservatives at two per cent (0) among decided voters.
The final Ipsos poll, conducted May 4-7, showed the Liberals at 47 per cent (+1); the NDP at 39 per cent (-3); and the Greens at 10 per cent (+2) among decided voters. Ipsos lumped the B.C. Conservatives in the "other" category.
Mustel slightly outside range
The final Mustel Group poll, conducted April 29 to May 6, showed the Liberals at 47 per cent (+1); the NDP at 38 per cent (-4); the Greens at 12 per cent (+4); and the B.C. Conservatives at three per cent (+1).
Mustel's results for the NDP and Greens fall slightly outside the poll's overall margin of error -- plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. But those numbers are for all respondents to the poll. The horserace numbers quoted above are based on a smaller sample -- decided voters -- which carries a higher margin of error.
Therefore, Mustel might still be able to claim that its numbers fall within its margin of error. (Evi Mustel of the Mustel Group was not immediately available to comment Wednesday.)
Dueling press release boasts
In the aftermath of the election, Angus Reid Strategies issued a press release headlined "Angus Reid Makes the Best Electoral Prediction in British Columbia."
Ipsos countered with a release headlined "Ipsos Reid Posts Double Play for Home Run in BC Election: Only Pollster to Hit the Mark on Both the General Election and the Referendum on Electoral Reform."
As the duelling press releases indicate, election polling is a high-stakes game. Pollsters engage in it as a way of gaining media attention for the rest of their business, much of which tends to concentrate on market research.
The Ipsos release pointed out that the company's numbers exactly matched the outcome of the BC-STV referendum. British Columbians voted 61 per cent in favour of the current First-Past-the-Post system, compared to 39 per cent for the Single Transferable Ballot -- the same numbers quoted for decided voters in the final Ipsos poll.
Reid, in contrast, had 45 per cent of decided voters favouring BC-STV, as opposed to 55 per cent for First-Past-the-Post -- well outside the poll's stated margin of error.
Mustel did not quote a figure for decided voters on STV, reporting 33 per cent of respondents in favour of BC-STV, 43 per cent in favour of FPTP and 24 per cent undecided.
NDP respondents more likely to vote
Angus Reid, head of Angus Reid Strategies, told The Tyee Wednesday that "we didn’t really focus our attention on the STV issue.
"We said it was going to fail, it failed," he said. "If they [Ipsos] want to do a victory lap because they got the STV thing right, well, good luck, God bless."
Reid argued that the telephone pollsters consistently underreport the NDP's share of the vote.
"I think that my friends on the telephone side of the business have got a little answering to do in terms of just why there's this systematic underreporting on that side of the equation," he said. "I think the telephone guys are losing more than they're winning in terms of accuracy."
Ipsos vice-president Kyle Braid told The Tyee that the NDP appears to have done a better job of getting its vote out, which could explain why it did better than the results suggested by telephone pollsters.
"There’s really nothing pollsters can do to factor in the efforts of the campaigns at getting out their vote," he said. "We can look at measures of the intentions of people to go out and vote but that's not the same as the number of calls they get from the campaign teams asking whether they've actually gone out to vote."
Traditionally, the NDP has been better than other parties at getting their voters to the polls, while the Green party fails to deliver its supporters.
"It looks like that might be something that's always going to happen," said Braid. "You have to take the final poll, subtract two from the Greens and add two to the NDP and you'll have something that's pretty close to the result."
Online vs. phone polling: unresolved
Braid said he doesn't think this election will settle arguments about the merits of online versus telephone polling.
"As I’ve said before, either methodology is a valid methodology. Both our poll and the online poll hit within the mark.
"It’s going to be something that’s talked about as a result of this campaign because a particular group said it's all about online and everything else is wrong. And I think our results show that there are two ways to get at the same answer."
Related Tyee stories:
- Polling that Obsesses BC's Campaign Strategists
Economy and crime seem to obliterate other issues for BC voters. It's not that simple. - Pollsters in High Stakes Race, Too
The numbers are all over the place. Who will get to brag about being right? - Burger Polls back after 20-year marinade
![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
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- Who Mowed Down the Premier?
- Bill C-38: the Environmental Destruction Act
- Death in Remand: a Tyee Inquiry
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- Bill C-38: the Environmental Destruction Act
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- BC biotech company seeks approval for GM apple
- Bias in BC's Pesticide Decision? Follow the Bouncing Verbs
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- Death in Remand: A Jail Crammed with Risk
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- The Gem of Canadian Science that Harper Killed
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- Should You Run from that Medical Test?
- 'The Dictator'
25
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offended
3 years ago
Robbins SCE Research
had the best predictions, IMHO.
Frank
3 years ago
LOL
"Ipsos vice-president Kyle Braid told The Tyee that the NDP appears to have done a better job of getting its vote out"
uh-huh, that old canard. Fact is Mustel had the NDP at 35% (17% behind the Libs) and Ipsos had them at 39%. Angus Reid had them at 42%.
AR was right. Just as they were right when it came to the federal election.
But of course next election the AR poll will once again be ignored whereas the Ipsos and Mustel polls will be promoted by Can-West.
Van Isle
3 years ago
I hear you Frank, and with
I hear you Frank, and with that they try to influence the voter with numbers instead of reporting the facts at a particular point in time. Just listen to your replacement 'Bill Bonehead" and his two comical side-kick-reliefs, tweedle dum and tweedle dee, when Mustel releases a survey.
ROBBINS Sce Research
3 years ago
Ipsos and Mustel ought to be
Ipsos and Mustel ought to be ashamed. With a reported 50%--my insiders are telling me this is actually 48% voter turnout,---we all know what happened here.
I've played for Canada--Angus Reid Jr. is the best centre in football today.
My point--go with class.
driftwolf
3 years ago
Polls should be banned.
Polls should be banned. There are too many negatives associated with this hype around polls, including them being used by one side or the other to further their campaign. Polls can become self-fulfilling predictions, which isn't good for democracy.
Ban the polls.
wstander
3 years ago
Weird math
Actual vote Lib 46 NDP 42 (+4)
Angus Reid Lib 44 NDP 42 (+2)
Ipsos Reid Lib 47 NDP 39 (+8)
Ipsos Pollsters Angus Reid Strategies and Ipsos Reid were also quick to claim wins
I guess Ipsos Reid can claim the victory, but that simply makes the claim as accurate as their poll- not very, albeit more accurate than the poll numbers they were peddling to the public through the media several weeks earlier when the horse race aspect of the campaign was being framed. In contrast Angus Reid's polls were consistent throughout the campaign.
Norman Farrell
3 years ago
Keith Baldrey - offensive use of polls
Angus Reid Strategies had updated poll information the week before election day. It showed Liberals leading by 2%, a near tie. Yet, Global’s Keith Baldrey reported on Thursday before voting that polls (plural) had Liberals in a safe lead. Friday, Baldrey said that Campbell's comfortable lead allowed him to spend a leisurely day in the Okanagan. Accompanying video showed the Premier strolling through a vineyard with an old investing partner of Herb Doman.
On the newscasts that I viewed, Baldrey didn’t even mention the Angus Reid online polls, despite their previous record of accuracy. On Friday, following Baldrey, the next story implied Carole James was in panic mode while the Liberals were relaxing.
The distortion by Global, Baldrey in particular, could only be intentional, probably because of the likelihood of undecideds swinging to the party perceived the likely winner. Canwest's TV news operation offers no reasonable way for viewers to raise complaints or address errors. Unlike Global, CBC provides a lively discussion forum online for every significant story, even allowing readers to offer thumbs up or down on individual comments. Screening of contributions is minimal.
CBC, by the way, had a much better review of election polling, noting differences between them and discussing methodologies and potential accuracy.
Anyone wanting fair coverage of the BC election needed to avoid Global TV news.
It was unethical of Baldrey to mention one poll favoring the party supported by the corporation that employs him while he ignored another legitimate survey that had a different story.
Too bad this current group at Global TV News can coast on the work of great news folks of BCTV long since gone.
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Some Other Points to Take Into Account...
The actual election spread between the Libs and NDP was 4%, according to preliminary vote estimates.
ARS had the spread at 2%, which was off by 2%.
Mustel had the spread off by 5% from the actual, while Ipsos had the spread off by 4%.
Mustel had the Greens 4% higher than actual while Ipsos had the Greens at 2% higher.
Not out of the realm of possibility when at the ballot box these Green voters decide to mark an X for the NDP at the last minute, which brings the results into line with the actual results.
And then there is the perceived "Libs will win, it's a slam dunk" factor "so I don't need to vote" resulting in many Libs staying home.
If all we had during the election campaign was the close ARS polls, that might have resulted in motivating many Libs getting off their duffs to vote.
Remember, voter turnout provincially was at or below 50% overall - a historic low.
And out of the "top 10" ridings with the lowest voter turnout, 8 were strong Lib ridings in 2005.
http://bc2009.com/page/2/
Caveat Emptor.
Frank
3 years ago
Luke
Mustel was claiming a 17% gap in the two main parties and high support for the Greens in April. It was wrong twice.
Just before the election it "narrowed" the lead of the Liberals to 9%.
That's outside of its own claimed margin of error.
"Not out of the realm of possibility when at the ballot box these Green voters decide to mark an X for the NDP at the last minute, which brings the results into line with the actual results."
You have no idea if this is true, its an excuse to explain bad polling is all. Its about as accurate as me saying aliens must have beamed up lots of Green and Liberal supporters.
ROBBINS Sce Research
3 years ago
With an unbelievably low
With an unbelievably low voter turnout--pre-election 'announcement' of lack of funds to cover election---and the handling of the publishing of polls--particularly the initial ones with the big 'bandwagon' gap between the two parties---and the contractor sponsored poll---, finanically 'needy' publishing.
there ought to be an inquiry or further investigation----something is very, very odd about all of this---I personally feel we should be very concerned and troubled.
A margin of error of 3.5% on party numbers is not a sufficient apology/excuse.
Lastly, every pollster except ROBBINS, has been using the Green party federally--and provincially--as an excuse to 'park' often 5-7% of respondents---when in our experience this is not merited. When the Green party is constantly out by 50%--another party usually one on the left is under 'reported'--conveniently providing a 'rationale' for bandwagon polls--which as witnessed -- in this bc election are thus 'adjusted' at the end---to just make it into the margin of error which at the standard 3-3.5% is easily handled.
Point of interest. Joan McIntyre-BC Liberal ---Olympic riding-----is former partner to Mustel (Mustel McIntyre).
A few years ago we wrote to Ted Hughes as this related to Joan McIntrye--a backbencher sitting in on BC Liberal executive meetings-----.
Folks--I am not easily given to conspiracy theory--but there is something very wrong about how that election rolled out--- in my opinion--very creepy.
ROBBINS Sce Research
3 years ago
nice research Luke
nice research Luke
Skywalker
3 years ago
Bad polling ..
is just a euphemism for "polling for a political agenda".
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Frank...
Did you read the article? To requote:
Robbins SCE REsearch:
Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.... Robbins SCE Research doesn't even use proper statistics & probability margins of error but some comedic secret formula: :D
http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_582.html
Frank
3 years ago
Luke
"Did you read the article?"
Did you look at the Mustel poll results versus the actual electoral results?
One poll had a 17% spread and the other had a 9% spread.
Mustel proved itself to be a joke. Of course I expect Liberal supporters like Keith Baldrey and Bill Good to play up their 2013 polls which will probably declare the Libs have a 25% lead or something.
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Frank...
Yuppers... again from the article:
Looks like many declared Green voters switched over to the NDP at the last minute while marking their X at the ballot box.
Remember Carole's continuous plea to "soft" Green voters in the dying days of the campaign?
Looks like it was somewhat effective.
Frank
3 years ago
Luke
"Looks like many declared Green voters switched over to the NDP at the last minute while marking their X at the ballot box."
Sez you. It looks like the Mustel poll was completely wrong to begin with sez me.
"The final Mustel Group poll, conducted April 29 to May 6, showed the Liberals at 47 per cent (+1); the NDP at 38 per cent (-4); the Greens at 12 per cent (+4); and the B.C. Conservatives at three per cent (+1)."
That adds up to 10% wrong.
ROBBINS Sce Research
3 years ago
Luke--I have accepted your
Luke--I have accepted your criticism for my 'secret formula' remark and on another stream at this publication--have explained in part what I mean-sufficient to have a number of people email me personally to say they understand--I am creating al gore rythms within the context of the poll--based on the limitation of the science methodology on sample size only--which we can now see is part of the problems of some of these polls--sold as science. Picking your nose and flicking it on someone could as easily be described as an act of science.
There is nothing even remotely related to "pot calling the kettle black". In fact you precisely made my case. I am calling a one half point margin of error while inferring that some other polling firms are (mis)using the standard 3.0 percent based on a relatively high sample size--to facilitate the band wagon affect and increase influence through the portrayal of these 'outcomes' manifest through headlines in regular media.
I won't be able to kick it around with you further--we are busy trying to determine who the real government in BC is --based on the Van Rassel amendment--which he will be publishing here and around the world soon.
Thank you.
Macb423
3 years ago
Mustel and Ipsos predict NDP victory?
Mustel and Ipsos missed the actual gap in the race by 5% and 4%. If they had been off by the same amount in the other direction, they would have predicted an NDP victory! Their polling was just as lousy in 2005, if I recall. I've now learned to pay more attention to AR, and ignore these other two. They have no right to brag.
Rod Smelser
3 years ago
Norman Farrell: What's the deal with Baldrey?
Norman Farrell
... Yet, Global’s Keith Baldrey reported on Thursday before voting that polls (plural) had Liberals in a safe lead. Friday, Baldrey said that Campbell's comfortable lead allowed him to spend a leisurely day in the Okanagan. Accompanying video showed the Premier strolling through a vineyard with an old investing partner of Herb Doman.
Ah, ... yes, ... Herb Doman did have a very special understanding of concept of increasing shareholder value, didn't he?
What's the deal with Baldrey. In years past he was friendly with Glen Clark, now he seems to be as you describe him, pretty much another Liberal propagandist. Is there some reason why he's done such a complete about face???
ROBBINS Sce Research
3 years ago
I have read a number of
I have read a number of articles relating to the regular stream pollster--online vs telephone etc., and received correspondence from a third party indicating that when AR broke up with Ipsos--use of the telephone for polling--(non compete?) was part of the separation package?
If this is true--then wouldn't it be in AR's best interest to promote on-line polling since that is where the investment $$ have gone?
lynn
3 years ago
Well said, Norman.
Quote:
"It was unethical of Baldrey to mention one poll favoring the party supported by the corporation that employs him while he ignored another legitimate survey that had a different story.
Too bad this current group at Global TV News can coast on the work of great news folks of BCTV long since gone."
Well said, Norman Farrell.
And a really insightful comment on the thread above on the blatant bias of Global TV News.
brg61
3 years ago
Baldrey....
I felt exactly as Norman Farrell did as I watched that Fri. newscast. Baldrey even went so far as to say ndp insiders told him the liberal lead was as much as nine points.
This slanted reporting does influence voters and many people stayed home thinking their vote wouldn't matter. Either their party was way ahead or way behind.
Baldrey is pandering to the liberals because he knows his employer is bankrupt and a communications job paid by tax payers looks good to him.
We all know you can't spell obsequIOUs without IOU.
BDD63
3 years ago
Luke
Quote: Not out of the realm of possibility when at the ballot box these Green voters decide to mark an X for the NDP at the last minute, which brings the results into line with the actual results.
I arrived at the polling station ready to vote NDP as I had indicated on the Angus Reid on-line poll in which I had participated. However at the last second I changed my vote to Green.
Norman Farrell
3 years ago
Baldrey.... Global
Baldrey might be positioning for a new job but more likely he wanted to keep the old one. Aspers may disappear but Canadian media ownership only transfers from Tweedledum to Tweedledee. Baldrey knows that saluting the corporate flag is always a safe strategy and Global's pole was erect for Campbell's GOP.
Broadcasters now pick our pockets with the Canadian Television Fund. Soon the take will be enriched with cable carriage fees. Additionally, this year the regulatory limits on television advertising are removed.
Governments are not only regulators but also large advertising buyers. It is easy to understand why mainstream media must favor incumbent governments. The situation we are now in explains why so many observers opposed media ownership concentration.
ROBBINS Sce Research
3 years ago
ROBBINS calls election turnout 48.91% (not bad)
http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_574.html
In this poll we get Green--and get BC Conservatives (unadjusted).
4.6% lead for Campbell.
This poll-Rodeo Round-up--Final Answer--average for parties--I'll bet we are within .5%
Humbly--that's not toooo shabby.
gpr