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Battleground BC
Okanagan-Vernon and Shuswap Shift 'Solid' for Libs
Unity Party not around to siphon off conservative voters this time.
Two seats in B.C's Central Interior, OKANAGAN-VERNON and SHUSWAP, have been moved from 'likely' to 'solid' for the Liberals.
Although the two neighbouring constituencies are located in different Battleground BC sub-regions - Okanagan-Vernon is one of five seats in the Okanagan, while Shuswap is one of four Thompson-Coquihalla ridings - they share an interesting characteristic. That is, in the 2001 general election, these two ridings were the highest in the province in terms of popular vote awarded to the short-lived B.C. Unity party.
Although Unity received votes from just 3.2% of voters across the province, they garnered four-times as much in Okanagan-Vernon and Shuswap: in the former, 13.1%; and in the latter, 12.4%.
Unity, an amalgam of various right-of-centre parties, is not a serious entity in 2005. (It is offering but a single candidate.) As a consequence, it seems likely that most of that party's support now will shift to the centre-right Liberals. That factor should provide an insurmountable advantage to the Liberal incumbents Okanagan-Vernon and Shuswap. OKANAGAN-VERNON was created in 1991 (out of the old Okanagan North electoral district) and that year re-elected Social Credit MLA Lyall Hanson, just one of seven Socreds returned to the legislature. Hanson retired in 1996, and Liberal April Sanders, a physician, won election with a bare 39.1% of the vote. The four-way contest saw credible performances by the NDP candidate at 30.0%, a Reform representative at 21.4%, and a PDA hopeful at 7.4%.
Sanders retired without seeking re-election in 2001, and was succeeded by Liberal Tom Christensen, a lawyer. He took 56.5% of the vote - a percentage point below the Liberals' province-wide average - but finished well ahead of the New Democratic Party and Unity candidates at 14.4% and 13.1%, respectively.
Christensen now enjoys an elevated profile as minister of education, and in a head-to-head battle against the NDP (without the distraction of a centre-right alternative such as Reform or Unity), should easily retain his seat.
Representing the NDP is Juliette Cunningham, a veteran school trustee. SHUSWAP has a lengthy history in the Legislative Assembly, and attained something close to its present configuration in redistribution before the 1991 general election. That initial contest was won by a New Democrat, Shannon O'Neill with a minuscule 35.5% of the vote, barely ahead of her Liberal and Social Credit opponents. She retired after a single legislative term.
O'Neill was succeeded in 1996 by Liberal George Abbott, who prevailed with a tiny 34.6% of the vote, as credible performances were recorded by NDP, Reform and PDA candidates. Abbott won re-election in 2001 with a significantly larger vote-share, 56.3%, but that again was under the Liberals' province-wide average. Trailing far behind were the NDP, Unity and Green candidates, at 16.5%, 12.4% and 10.5%, respectively. Abbott was named to cabinet in 2001 as minister of community, aboriginal and women's services.
The New Democratic Party candidate is Calvin White, a teacher and unsuccessful federal candidate in 1997.
Table - Unity party popular vote, 2001 - Top 10 ridings
- Okanagan-Vernon - 13.1%
- Shuswap - 12.4%
- Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain - 10.4%
- Prince George-Omineca - 9.9%
- Bulkley Valley-Stikine - 9.0%
- Abbotsford-Mount Lehman - 8.5%
- Prince George-Mount Lehman - 7.7%
- Kelowna-Mission - 7.1%
- Surrey-Green Timbers - 6.9%
- Surrey-Panorama Ridge - 6.9%
Check here daily for Battleground BC, Will McMartin's voting predictions and analysis, exclusive to The Tyee. You can reach him with tips, insights and info at will@thetyee.ca ![[Tyee]](http://thetyee.cachefly.net/ui/img/ico_fishie.png){kind=small}
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2
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wolfman
7 years ago
Comments on "Okanagan-Vernon and Shuswap Shift 'Solid' for
Although it is true that the unity party is not running candidates in these two ridings there are several right wing/fringe parties running. In Okannagan-Vernon, there is a Conservative party candidate and a BC patriot party candidate. I can't find much info on the patriot party, but I'm assuming there towards the right.
In Shuswap, in addition to the Conservative and Patriot party, there is a Bloc BC candidate, who I beleive is a former BC marijuana party member, with libretarian/BC nationalist views, as far as I know. Since the Unity party was so succsseful in these ridings last election, perhaps these riding are fertile ground for right winged fringe parties. If that is the case, the combination of these parties could do as much damage to the Liberals as the Unity did. Maybe even more if there is as much anti-Liberal sentiment in the Okanagan Shuswap areas as there is in the rest of the province.
dcw
7 years ago
Sadly wolfman is grasping. We are sunk up there.