Economy watchers have been talking about "green shoots" of recovery in the ruins of the recession. Bloggers aren't so sure.
At the Progressive Economics Forum, Erin Weir warns that "despite expansive monetary policy from central banks and perceived 'green shoots' in the economy, deflation remains a more serious risk than rising inflation."
At Cliff Küle's Notes, a graph shows the green shoots as a small, brief rise after a long, steep fall.
At Whispers from the Village on the Edge of the Rainforest, "Whisperer" worries about the Vancouver real estate market:
Province-wide, the [CMHC] forecast calls for a 43-per-cent decline in housing starts compared with 2008. It estimates that builders will start work on 19,725 new housing units this year, with a 10-per-cent uptick to 21,000 new units in 2010 -- a far cry from the 34,321 built in 2008.
...Are the fundamentals there for recovery? Or are the 'green shoots' actually the yellow weeds of a bear market trap?
RunToGold.com takes the weed metaphor even further:
The "green shoots" of the economy are really red roots evidenced by a labor market stasis and plummeting earnings. Chairman Bernanke told '60 Minutes' on Sunday that "green shoots" of economic resurgence are sprouting. But those perceived green shoots are really red weeds that the Federal Reserve has internally debated for weeks. The economy is grinding to a halt, the FRN$ is under intense pressure and beginning to buckle again while gold is predictably playing its role.
And at ActionForex, today's European Market Update offers little encouragement:
Hard data not confirming any "green shoots" at this time; Japan April steel output -43.6% y/y; HK GDP below expectations and the HKMA noted that no recovery in global economy seen soon. IMF: more UK banks may have to be nationalized. FOMC Minutes: Deeper recession possible.
Early this morning, the Globe and Mail reported that "Stocks slump on U.S. jobless data."
Crawford Kilian is a contributing editor of The Tyee.
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Van Isle
3 years ago
If anyone pays attention to
If anyone pays attention to the trends during a big recession/depression there are always spikes. Last week I attended another one of those (raw-raw-raw, happy days are just around the corner)retirement seminars thinking that they would have something enlightning and different to say. Nope, same ol' crap. The powers of "B" have learnt sweet-bugger-all and all they're doing right now is just trying keep their backsides out of the wringer. Just wait for a couple of months and the graph will take another spike downwards. Just checkout what happened to the Japenese economy during the 'Asian Flu season' of the 90's. The investment industry knows that the savings rate amoungst Canadians has gone up and they wants to get there fingers into it.
freebear
3 years ago
We need a Tsunami of a correction
If we are to get off this unsustainable path and re-design (not invent) the way we live.
freebear
3 years ago
I am sure 'Green Thumb' Gordon Campbell
will take credit for the green shoots in BC!
And David will say its becuase of the glorious Carbon Tax! LOL!
ME2
3 years ago
self-delusions
Re the always ready-to-be-trotted-out rosy prognostications of the bankers, the economists and the Chamber of Commerce types, these have all sophistication of the "peek-a-boo, I see you" game played with a one year-old