Finance Minister Colin Hansen said today he believes B.C. will avoid a recession and the provincial government won’t run a deficit, but admitted that accurate predictions are difficult to make in today's economic climate.
Hansen said the province has seen its projected revenues drop “dramatically” but said he was confident the provincial economy will see modest but steady growth rates over the coming fiscal year thanks largely to the natural gas industry. He added that current economic figures will be released Monday. .
“British Columbia, according to all the leading economists, can still anticipate positive economic growth through this very difficult time,” Hansen said.
But questioned on his confidence in the accuracy of the government’s economic forecasters, Hansen said the volatile global economy makes it hard to predict the future. “It’s been a very difficult time to be an economist and a forecaster in North America,” he said. “It’s fair to say that some of the forecasts given six months ago are now being dramatically revised.”
Bernie Magnan, chief economist with the Vancouver Board of Trade, said the province will likely "skirt close" to a recession with growth between 0.5 and 1.5 per cent GDP over the next fiscal year.
“Any prediction that an economist makes can be wrong,” he said. “But you go with the information that you have.”
Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives researcher Iglika Ivanova said declines in consumer spending, investment and real estate values mean a provincial recession is likely.
But she added the effects in B.C. won’t be as pronounced as they will be in Ontario, where a collapsing manufacturing industry could wreak economic havoc.
Whether B.C.’s economy is able to post growth over the next year will most likely depend on factors beyond the province’s control such as U.S. demand for forestry products, she said.
“It’s a difficult time to make accurate predictions because things are changing so fast,” Ivanova said. “There’s a lot of things up in the air.”
Geoff Dembicki is a staff reporter for the Hook.
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munroe
3 years ago
Sounds like John McCain:
Sounds like John McCain: "the fundamentals of the American economy are strong".
Name
3 years ago
Yeah, right...
What's Mr Hansen smoking? With oil prices tanking, the real estate development industry crashing, forestry in trouble, other commodity prices and exports dropping, tourism collapsing and retail evaporating, what is going to stop BC's economy going into freefall?
Is it the same industry that would appear to be fuelling Mr Hansen's whacky economic projections? BC Bud is the only economic sector I can see surviving - but do they really expect that to keep BC out of a recession while everyone else goes down?
These guys are jokes. The hilarious part is they stood in front of the parade as world oil prices, interest rates and unregulated greed fuelled the great bubble, claiming it was their economic prowess responsible. Now when all the same factors are causing it all to come crashing down again, because the only thing of substance they actually created out of the global wave for BC was a few rec centres, roads and bridges, they're too dumb & deluded by their own sense of grandeur to just get out of the way and admit that a pokey provincial government in Victoria, Canada doesn't actually have much say in these global ups or the downs.
And the things they could have done while things were good to cushion the inevitable downturn, like restructuring & diversifying BC's economy to reduce our reliance on commodity exports, supporting new green industries, or strengthening the social fabric to make vulnerable British Columbians more resilient and self-sufficient in tough times - they totally failed to do. And now it's too late. It'll take maybe another 6-12 months, but a lot of British Columbians will be hurting by then, and there will be no one and nothing to help them when they're the ones in trouble, because these jackasses smoked all our wealth or gave it away to their rich buddies!
Luke Skywalker
3 years ago
Some Budget Items...
Natural Gas Bonus Bids:
Budgeted: $642 million
Actual: $2.1 billion (over calendar year)
Natural Gas Royalties:
Budgeted: $5.39 Cdn/Gigajoule
Current Price: $7.20 Cdn/Gigajoule
1. Every $1.00 change in natural gas price results in an additional $275 to $325 million in revenue;
2. Every 1 cent change downward in the $Cdn results in additional $15 to $25 million in natural gas royalties;
At last on those fronts the revenue stream continues to be much higher than budgeted.
On another front, in the central interior near Williams Lake the forest industry is hit hard. The proposed Prosperity copper/gold mine development would create 500 permanent jobs and would spend $5 billion over its 20-year lifespan.
Yet the local NDP MLA, Charlie Wyse, has told the Willimas Lake mayor, a councillor, and the chief administrative officer that the mine "should be delayed for three years".
Silly. That now seems to be creating a bit of a broohaha now up in Williams Lake.
Frank
3 years ago
Other budget items
Of course the natural gas and mining revenues will be spent on blocking freedom of information requests by reporters wanting to find out how badly abused children have been treated by this government.
Apparently there is money for gold medals with Campbell's name on it to be handed out and even more money for radio, newspaper and television spots promoting the government but no money to help abused kids.
Paul Willcocks had a good article on abused kids and FOI back on November 11th titled :
"FOI cover up, or isolated mistake - your call"
http://willcocks.blogspot.com/
The province will need 50 new mines to pay for Campbell's self-promoting ads and medals. Maybe a new government could ebay those medals and buy some help for the kids.
Of course that would never happen in this province where selling pot and abusing kids is a mum and apple pie thing.
crh
3 years ago
Colin Hansen was interviewed
on CFAX radio earlier this week and would not answer the question of how much our total provincial debt is as of today. He was asked at least five times for a straight answer. I only heard, 'well, you know, it goes up, and it goes down', or 'I'm not sure of the exact number right at this time' Really, it was most ridiculous that he could not give an answer to this question.
My best guess is that our total provincial debt has climed by about 7billion since Gordo has been at the helm.
Frank
3 years ago
crh
It would be great if it was only $7 billion but unfortunately our debt has probably gone up under Campbell by over 50 billion $.
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/columnists/story.html?id=be4c05c2-444b-4624-afbb-fb98ac8b799e