An American report predicts almost 197 million Americans will catch H1N1 influenza by the end of December, with 77 million falling ill--2.6 million in the last week of October alone. What's more, vaccination will come too late to make much difference.
With the same assumptions applied to Canada, the delay in rolling out H1N1 vaccine may make it irrelevant to the impact of the disease here.
The report, by two Purdue University researchers, was published October 15 in Eurosurveillance. It predicts 63% of Americans will catch H1N1 by the end of the year. Up to 60% of those infected won't show any symptoms, but 40% - 77 million - will fall ill.
Although vaccinations are already under way in the U.S., the authors say the peak of the flu will occur at the end of this month, when 8 percent of all Americans will be infected in one week. This will be well before most vaccinated people have formed antibodies to the disease. At best, the authors estimate vaccinations will reduce the number of cases by 6 percent.
Applying the same model to Canada suggests that 21 million of us will catch H1N1 by New Year's Eve, with 8.4 million actually falling ill. At the peak of the outbreak, 1.6 million will be infected in a single week. Since Canadian vaccine won't be available until the first week of November at the earliest, it would seem unlikely to have much effect on the spread of the disease until late November or early December.
The Purdue researchers say that vaccination would reduce the number of infections by only 6 percent. This would reduce the number of deaths from swine flu by anywhere from 2,500 to 25,000 depending on the mortality rate.
Without any vaccination in Canada, a mortality rate of 0.05% to 0.5% would mean between 4,158 and 41,580 deaths. A 6% reduction in deaths thanks to vaccination would therefore save between 250 and 2,500 lives.
Applied to British Columbia's 4.4 million people, the Purdue model suggests 2.7 million of us will catch H1N1, and 675,000 will fall ill. Assuming a mortality rate between 0.05% and 0.5%, that indicates between 337 and 3,375 flu deaths by New Year's Day.
The test of the Purdue predictions will come in the next few weeks.
Crawford Kilian is a contributing editor of The Tyee.
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freebear
2 years ago
Who can afford sick days in BC?
What happens if a third of the work force is ill?
No sick pay mean homelessness for some?
Dr Alexander
2 years ago
"Assuming a mortality rate between 0.05% and 0.5%"
Aww Man! What kind of crap science is that?
Assumption based on what?
What is the mortality rate in the absence of the H1N1 flu?
How much worse is H1N1 than any other "seasonal" flu?
This is just plain shoddy science.
Frank
2 years ago
Timing
I hope the flu doesn't hit here until Campbell's 2 week party is in swing. That would be funny.
OilbertaRedTory
2 years ago
Doing the math :
From WHO/ Seasonal 'flu :
"Influenza epidemics occur yearly during autumn and winter in temperate regions. Illnesses result in hospitalizations and deaths mainly among high-risk groups (the very young, elderly or chronically ill). Worldwide, these annual epidemics result in about three to five million cases of severe illness, and about 250 000 to 500 000 deaths. Most deaths associated with influenza in industrialized countries occur among people age 65 or older. In some tropical countries, influenza viruses circulate throughout the year with one or two peaks during rainy seasons."
In contrast, h1n1 mortality is skewed to the young.
Confirmed cases: 153,697 (35 countries reported)
Number deaths : 3,406 (25 countries reported)
Annex 2: Number of cases and deaths confirmed for the Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus
Region of the Americas. Updated as of XX 2009, (17 h GMT; 12 h EST).
Source: Ministries of Health of the countries in the Region.
http://new.paho.org/hq/images/atlas/en/atlas.html
Frank
2 years ago
Looking forward to the excuses
I wonder how long it will take Campbell to blame the economy on the flu? Kind of like how he declared that SARS was a terrible hit to the BC economy.
Dr Alexander
2 years ago
Isn't it ironic?
For those that have a predisposing medical condition, catch the H1N1 virus and die, their death is blamed on the H1N1 virus.
For those that get tasered five times and die, their death is blamed on "predisposing medical conditions".
EverettR
2 years ago
disease
Everyone's been scared about the latest virus flying around the globe. Has anyone ever heard of Habba Syndrome? (We all Habba syndrome at one time or another – Ha! Forgive the cheap pun.) Habba Syndrome was first described by Dr. Saad F. Habba, as a condition in which chronic diarrhea is associated with abnormal activity and excess bile being released by the gall bladder. Dr. Habba (who checks out – he's got his bona fides in order) first described and attached his name to the syndrome (which was published) in the early 2000s. It is different from Irritable Bowel Syndrome, as it doesn't present with abdominal pain and generally improves with fasting. Treatment is usually a course of bile acid binding agent therapy, and some of them are generic – so it might not run you payday loans to treat it, if you get diagnosed. Click here http://personalmoneystore.com/Payday-Loans/ for more details.
realisticman
2 years ago
Frank
"I hope the flu doesn't hit here until Campbell's 2 week party is in swing. That would be funny."
Frank, the large contractors have made their money. Most of the legacy projects are completed either on or before time and also on budget. The only people that will be hurt by a pandemic are the service workers; the bus-boys, the bus and other vehicle drivers and mechanics, the waitresses and waiters, the restaurants staff and their suppliers, the bell hops and the room maids, the camera crews, all the other staff and support people. all the organizers and the security workers, all the competitors and their support teams that have trained for years. Not forgetting the earnings to our province generally. Do you really wish them and us all the worst?
I have always considered you to be a decent and considerate person but this comment of yours can only be described as despicable towards all the hard working men and women that will work on and around this event.