Analysts and election-watchers are entering the long weekend not sure which polls to believe, or what they portend for post-election Canada.
In a news release dated April 18, Harris Decima put the NDP in Quebec at 15 percent with the Bloc Quebecois at 33, the Liberals at 24, the Conservatives at 21 and the Greens at 5 percent. Nationally, Harris-Decima put the Conservatives at 36, 8 points ahead of the Liberals' 28. The NDP was at 19.
Three days later, an Ekos/iPolitics poll put the NDP in first place in Quebec with 31.4, ahead of the Bloc's 27.2, the Liberals' 15.5 and the Conservatives' 18.4. Nationally, Ekos found the Conservatives slipping from 37.4 to 34.4 while the Liberals stagnated at 24.7. Ekos said "the real story of campaign 41" is the NDP's sudden surge:
On March 24th, the NDP stood at 14.2 points. Since then, they moved up steadily to around 17 points, then they started closing in on 20 and, in this poll, they find themselves at 24.7, tying themselves with the Liberals and only 9 points shy of the once-distant Conservative Party. This steady progression from "also ran" to contender has been smooth and steady. It is very uncertain whether it will be sustained or whether it could even advance further.
How to interpret these results has preoccupied analysts and blog pundits alike. The Globe and Mail, using Ipsos Reid and Nanos data, says "[A] majority government seems to be within Stephen Harper's reach."
But the Laurier Institute, under the headline "Tsunami in Quebec," projects just 149 seats for the Conservatives(-6 from 2008), with 68 for the Liberals(-9), 52 for the NDP(+15) , and 39 for the Bloc(-10). Its projection is based on a blend of polls conducted between April 18 and 20.
Pundits' Guide argues that the NDP surge means the Conservatives must now gain two dozen extra seats, not a dozen, for a majority. PG also speculates on the post-election impact on the Liberals if potential leaders like Martin Cauchon and Justin Trudeau are defeated in their Quebec seats. Echo effects in Ontario, PG says, could result in the NDP gaining a total of 80 seats.
At ThreeHundredEight.com, analyst Eric Grenier offers a more cautious projection:
The Conservatives remain stuck at 38.6%, but they have gained three seats and are now projected to win 150. The Liberals are down 0.5 points to 27.4% and four seats to 76, back under their standing at the fall of the government. The New Democrats are up 0.8 points to 19% and one seat to 36, while the Bloc Québécois is down 0.2 points nationally to 8.2%. They remain at 45 seats, with the Greens unchanged at 5.7%.
And at Voices for Democracy, blogger Emily Dee suspects it's all a Conservative plot. She cites a book by longtime Harper supporter Gerry Nicholls in which he describes a right-wing campaign to attack Ed Broadbent's NDP and thereby provoke his supporters to rally round him instead of voting strategically for the Liberals (who were then promising to cancel free trade). The same technique, she says, is now in use:
The day you hear a Conservative suggesting that people vote NDP, "their ideological opposites", is when you know there's something else going on. They are trying to throw us off course. And it would appear that Jack Layton has taken the bait. He will now pound away at Michael Ignatieff, in the same way that he pounded at the carbon tax, giving Harper a stronger minority.
Given the confused and contradictory data and interpretation this week, Canadians will have just a week to sort things out and decide which way to vote, and why.
Crawford Kilian is a contributing editor of The Tyee.
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notdarkyet
1 year ago
Polls
Since when are journalists supposed to make the news. Most of the polls are commissioned by one of the major media outlets. Then they spend time analyzing the results of the polls instead of analyzing the leaders and the issues.
It seems like so much lazy journalism.
Crawford's last comment (whether intentional or not) implies that people have to figure out how to vote based on poll results.
Mangrove
1 year ago
NDP surge is great!
I don't know why a lot of projection bloggers seem to think that the NDP surge equates to a Conservative majority. In numerous provinces, including here in BC, the race is between the NDP and Conservatives, and the polls show this. With the NDP surge, the Conservatives are slipping further away from their majority. Vote NDP in BC to prevent the Cons from ruling (not governing) this country.
G West
1 year ago
Mangrove
Absolutely spot on. Ignatieff has made a meal of this campaign - instead of responding directly to Pee Wee's provocation over the perceived evil of 'any' coalition government he allowed the bully boy to back him into a corner.
Harper is a bully and someone who cares less about the truth and more about power - the only way to respond to a bully (when there are no monitors in the playground) is to face him down and reveal what he's actually up to.
Layton has had the courage to do that - and it seems to be resonating with the electorate.
No matter what the 'centre' tries to sell, the people in the regions know that a Harper Government will not represent more than a minority of public opinion in this country.
Any coalition, based as it must be on consultation and compromise, is always going to represent the majority of the people better than Harper will.
The disconnect is particularly evident when the voters realize that the PMO is muzzling the Conservatives own candidates and keeping them from appearing at local all candidates meetings and debates.
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/westcoastnews/story.html?id=654b937a-fd24-4f46-970b-14f954d49715&k=42038
Van Isle
1 year ago
It was umpteen years ago
It was umpteen years ago that I figured out that the pollsters were in bed with the ruling parties, whether it was Liberal or Conservative. Most sheeple vote whatever the trend is and of course the pollsters tell them who to vote for. Just have to look at Harper and the Conservatives for the last 5 years; couldn't ask for more of a bunch of bandits (except for maybe the ones in Victoria). The polls always say that the Cons are always in the lead; why?
Frank
1 year ago
Aggregates
For those not impressed by the way 308 does their poll aggregates you might want to check out http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/
He eliminates polls older than 2 weeks from his projections.
My own view is that the NDP is heading for nearly 80 seats if polls don't change. If they continue to rise as they have, I have no idea but it would be over 100 seats.
Frank
1 year ago
And...
About half of those would be in Quebec.
crankypants
1 year ago
Polls
The fact that two polls taken at approximately the same time period show a difference of 9 points for the Conservatives should be enough of a red flag to suggest that they are about as useful as the tips trotted out by a tout at the racetrack.
The only credible poll will be the one brought forth by Elections Canada on May 2.
realisticman
1 year ago
Frank
I'm surprised that you're making predictions but I'm sure there's a good reason. Anything can happen in a campaign, as you well know. Even after the recent surge '308' still has the NDP projected to win 36 and 'tooclosetocall' suggests 47, which is still a very long shot.
In all reality nothing much has changed during the campaign, except for the NDP jumping 5 points and the Bloc losing 3. The Conservatives and the Liberals are just where they were at the start.
The interesting time will be after the vote.
morechatter
1 year ago
NDP the Official Opposition
I don't know if it is so much a prediction but wouldn't it be grand. Layton could even be the prime minister, it is anyone's game.
Just the fact there are so many swinging to the left says there are more voters likely to be in the middle.
It will not pay off for the Conservatives.
Especially since Layton seems to have gotten a second wind, perhaps it has something to do with his own health. Often it takes a illness to make one really appreciate life and all it has to offer.