If Conservative leader Stephen Harper fails to win the majority he's looking for in Tuesday's election, or even loses some seats, his strategists will have to take a close look at whether his “bubble boy” campaign prevented him from connecting with voters.
In today's Globe and Mail, columnist Lawrence Martin observed that both Harper and Liberal leader Stéphane Dion failed to connect with voters, while the Green Party's Elizabeth May, NDP's Jack Layton and Bloc Quebecois' Gilles Duceppe all managed to get their messages to resonate better.
That may be true of how they fared in the televised debates and in national media coverage, but it's also a reflection of how they campaigned on the ground.
Take Victoria as an example. B.C.'s capital region has three ridings, with the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP each holding one. The leaders of all three parties had reason to visit, with hopes of holding onto seats they have now and of gaining others.
During the campaign Dion and Harper each visited the region twice, and Layton once. May did not visit, spending her time in B.C. in ridings in Vancouver, the Okanagan and Nanaimo where the Greens are more likely to be competitive.
While Layton and Dion each held events that were open to the public, Harper did not. Layton and Dion took questions from random attendees at their events and held fluid scrums with reporters. Harper, on the other hand, mainly took questions from the reporters travelling on his tour. He could have been at a hotel anywhere.
Harper's tight campaign is what one would expect of a front runner, trying to prevent too many gaffes. But in a contest where he's hoping to pick up votes and seats, it also makes him that much more disconnected from voters. That may well cost him.
Following are notes on each of those visits:
Dion, Sept. 13: The Liberal leader's first visit was a chaotic town hall style event at the University of Victoria. Hundreds lined up but were left outside the small lecture hall where Dion appeared. He took questions from the crowd and seemed relaxed, insisting on taking more questions even as his handlers tried to get him off the stage. Outside afterward, with a crowd gathered around, he scrummed with reporters, with the first part of the session reserved for local press.
Harper, Sept. 25: The Conservative leader touched down 12 days later for a short appearance at a hotel in the capital's tourist district. A small crowd of supporters gathered; even campaign insiders only got details of Harper's schedule a day ahead of the visit. The public was not invited. Harper read a speech then took questions from reporters who'd signed up on a list, mainly reporters from wire services and national media who were travelling with his tour.
Layton, Sept. 25: Later that day the NDP leader arrived for a better-advertised event at a local recreation centre. A few hundred seats were set in a rectangular pattern, putting Layton in the centre. He delivered an enthusiastic rally-the-troops kind of speech, then took questions, some of them confrontational, from the not entirely partisan public. Afterward he scrummed with reporters. Follow-up questions were allowed. Reporters riffed off each others questions for a relatively casual feeling exchange.
Dion, Oct. 6: The Liberal leader's second visit was an evening rally at a community centre packed with supporters and campaign workers. It was all thunder sticks and clapping. Dion gave a rally-style speech heavy on economics and light on the Green Shift. He did not take questions from attendees or reporters before getting back on his bus.
Harper, Oct. 8: Harper's second stop was very similar to his first, another morning event at another tourist district hotel, just steps from the one he appeared at last time. No public, just a small room full of campaign workers and supporters. He read a speech then took 10 questions from reporters. Nine were from national reporters touring with him, one was from a local reporter.
Andrew MacLeod is The Tyee’s Legislative Bureau Chief in Victoria. Reach him here.
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slim
3 years ago
Harper's campaign-in-a-bubble
Harper's campaign started going downhill when he cut $45 million from arts funding. I don't think the actual dollar amount mattered that much in the campaign. He could have cut $5 million or 245 million. He failed to understand the different groups of Canadians. His arts funding cut position had deep resonance with les québécois which he and his party of Harper clones recognized as a nation in an act of parliament. Harper recognized the Québécois as a nation. However, he was unable to describe that nation. Yes, the Québécois mostly speak French. They have a civil law judicial system in their province. But, how else could Harper describe la nation québécoise?
Harper may have some interesting ideas on how to help Canadians. Unfortunately, because Harper's campaign was in a bubble, he didn't get a chance to meet and listen to random Canadians who may not necessarily be Conservative Party supporters but could potentially be. If Harper couldn't describe the Québécois, how could he describe all his fellow Canadians? How could he understand the feelings of Canadians if he didn't get a chance to meet them. Instead of having peculiarly interesting ideas, he could have had great ideas to present to Canadians had he listened to his fellow Canadians.
DPL
3 years ago
Harper reminds me of a
Harper reminds me of a similar campaign by Campbell. The cartoon of Campbell riding inside a armoured car with just his eyes showing, and an announcement. Please step back from the vehicle. If politicians don't have the gonads to meet the great unwashed, they are unsure of themselves and are not fit to govern.
Back to Harper. Most of his candidates said little if anything, missed lots of all candidates meetings. Sort of some type of hangers on to his coattails. A lot of people find that petty. We will know tommorrow how Harper makes out. We already know how Campbell did last time around. The opposition went from three to over 30 members.
David Lewis
3 years ago
Bubble Boy sure can throw the money around
October 9: The Economist publishes an analysis of the election here entitled: "Please have the decency to panic" outining the view of its author that Harper was taking a hit for not doing anything in particular about the financial meltdown, whereas Dion was trumpeting his action plan.
October 10: Harper appears and hands out $25 billion to Canada's banks, saying he's buying mortgages. He's NOT copying the action the US appeared to be doing, i.e. buying up toxic waste from its banking system, i.e. mortgage backed securities in a massive bailout. He's "exchanging" assets, our $25 billion in cash, for $25 billion in gold plated mortgages the way Harper talks the banks probably wanted to have still on their books, but whatever, here's $25 billion, and whatever they palmed off on him, its now ours. Harper is going to make money on this he says. He gave them what the mortgages are worth, he says. It is widely predicted that Canada's house prices can only fall. Harper knows how to make money - buy up mortgages written with no down payment in a falling market. Its foolproof.
October 11 or 12: The US makes up its mind to take the money Congress gave the Treasury to buy up toxic waste paper and buy an equity stake in the banks instead.
This would still amount to handing the $700 billion to Dr Evil, but instead of taking everything that was killing him off his hands, Treasury is going to come away with a piece of Dr Evil. The banks will have to sort out all the toxic waste, and they won't be self governing until they buy the Treasury out when they are healthy again. If they won't pass on interest rate cuts or won't loan, their new owner can just tell them what to do.
October 13: no one in Canada seems to care. It looks like Harper is either conducting a little stage play with our $25 billion handing it to banks that do not need it, or, the banks are not in the position people believe and they need this or some other bailout.
Given that the US and the UK and the markets are all cheered up now that they think they have the solution, and their solution is not only radically different than Harper's but sounds better,
Is Harper a chump for taking waste paper off the hands of the Canadian banks without getting an equity position? Or are we chumps for letting him throw around money like that without taking him on in debate?
Or if he did get gold plated mortgages and the banks didn't need the money is he a criminal for pulling off an election stunt like this?
Lots of questions I have....
Van Isle
3 years ago
Yes David I think most
Yes David I think most thinking people have a number of questions to ask 'Bubble Boy' but he won't answer them cuz he thinks he doesn't have to. And heaven forbid if any of the 'mass-media talking heads' are going to push him. Just look how he's reacted to the revelations of Cadman tapes!!!
runner
3 years ago
great observations, but...
alas, no one who looks at the MSM will ever realise the protective cocoon Harper's handlers have kept him in. After all, it was only the MSM correspondents who were accompanying Harper on his campaign, and they certainly weren't reporting that local media and anyone other than themselves were not there to ask some hard questions.
The fact that his campaign was so packaged and removed from the people is one of the more frightening aspects of his leadership - how can you represent the people when you won't even speak to or mingle with them?
Tha same symptoms were displayed by his minions running in the ridings: isolating themselves in a similar manner, as MacLeod touches on above (no-shows at forums, no comments to local media, no personal positions that weren't read in monotone from an Official CPP Statement Card, no direct questions from regular citizens, etc.) just indicates the extent of control he and his court have over the party. In fact, it isn't a party, it's just him, because it isn't like local Conservative candidate Jane Parachute will ever have a voice in Commons if elected there.
But to the point, anyone getting their info from the likes of the G&M, NP, Macleans, CanWest, etc would never know Harper has insulated himself from the unwashed masses, of which they themselves are a part.
Of course, this all sounds eerily similar to the packages running for office down south... cooincidence? Who has Harper been getting campaign guidance from? I don't think Dana Carvey answering "Could it be...SATAN?" is too out of line ;-)
Anyways, too late now...we'll see soon enough if the isolation plan worked.