A poll released yesterday found only four out of 10 Canadians would approve of a ruling coalition between the Liberals and the NDP. However, reports on the poll failed to mention that 40 per cent support in our voting system is often enough to form a majority government.
The Ipsos Reid poll, conducted for CanWest News Service and Global National, conversely found that 45 percent of people would disapprove of a coalition between the Liberals and NDP. The survey of 1,092 people is considered accurate within 3.1 percent, 19 times out of 20.
The headline in the Victoria CanWest paper, the Times-Colonist, said: “Half of voters against idea of coalition.”
Interestingly, when Stephen Harper and the Conservative party broach 40 per cent in polls, the media tend to report that he's close to forming a majority, rather than point out that 60 percent of respondents were against him.
“This is pretty rich,” said University of Victoria political science professor Dennis Pilon. “Reid is doing some crazy stuff.”
As with all polls, he said, much depends on how the question is asked. If you asked people whether it was fairer for a party with 40 per cent of the vote to win a majority of the seats, as happens regularly in our first-past-the-post electoral system, or for two parties that together won 60 percent of the votes to govern, the answer would likely be different.
“I pretty much guarantee what the results of that poll would be,” said Pilon.
The media should do their jobs and report on the issues, he said, rather than give so much play to unreliable, and often contradictory, polls.
Andrew MacLeod is The Tyee's Legislative Bureau Chief in Victoria. You can reach him here.
4
Login or register to post comments
BrianWhite
3 years ago
Polls leading us astray.
Polls are really important because they influence voter perception and participation and choice.
If the poll tells that the con candidate is leading the liberal candidate by 5 or 6% the ndp voters are less inclined to bother to vote.
But if the con is shown only to be leading by 2% the ndp voter is likely to show up and vote liberal!
(Ndp is most often in 3rd place so I used them as the example) They are pretty screwed by the polling system and electoral system combined.
This is like quantum mechanics! You make an observation and just making the observation influences the result! But in the pollsters case they are trying to influence the result in lots of cases.
So it depends on who "commissions" the poll. (Thats who pays the piper).
Because a poll that doesnt give favourable results dies a death and never reaches the public.
As far as I am concerned polling is a fraudulent occupation to start with and made worse by the customer wanting the "right" result.
If horse racing was as on the level as polling, I do not think there would be many people making bets.
G West
3 years ago
I don't think so
ndp voters are less inclined to bother to vote
NDP voters are the most committed voters out there - they squeeze every last possible vote out of the community to the very last minute of polling time – the other parties are tyros by comparison…that’s why Liberals and Conservatives hate the NDP so much – because they know many of their own supporters are fickle.
However, I do think the proliferation of polls in election campaigns is a big problem.
I suggest anyone who is called in the next few days to respond to poll questions would be wise to lie through their teeth.
Van Isle
3 years ago
This is a classical case of
This is a classical case of the media manipulating information. Report it as fact and don't allow criticism of the info. No wonder young people feel as if they're not part of the system and don't bother to vote.
seth
3 years ago
strategic voting
go to www.voteforenvironment.ca check out your riding. It will suggest where the anybody but Harper people should put their vote. Pass it on!!!!