In the 2006 election, Liberal Bill Cunningam lost the federal riding of Burnaby-Douglas to New Democratic Party candidate Bill Siksay by a margin slim enough to floss with. But though both contenders are gearing up for another tight race, it would be premature to write off the Conservatives, says a B.C. political expert.

“Traditionally, (Burnaby-Douglas) has been a competition between the federal Liberals and New Democrats,” said Dennis Pilon, a professor of political science at the University of Victoria. “But anytime you have a three way split vote it can become unpredictable.”

First in 2004, and then in 2006, Siksay and Cunningham battled head to head in heated races that were decided in the NDP candidate’s favour by margins of less than 1,500 votes. But during those elections the Conservatives recorded third place finishes that were far from cringe-worthy – they nabbed 27.63 per cent of the vote in 2004 and 27.65 per cent in 2006.

This time around, new Tory blood and a hotly debated carbon tax could turn underdogs into victors. “Even a little bit of a shift could tip the riding,” Pilon told The Tyee.

Typically, local contenders themselves have little sway in attracting support for a federal party. But a well-known candidate with a strong connection to the community can boost voter support by two to three per cent, he says, turnout that can be crucial in a tight race.

In the Conservative camp, newcomer Ronald Leung may benefit from his reputation as a well-known commentator in the Chinese-Community, a bonus in a diverse riding that’s recently seen an influx of immigrants. He’ll be up against Liberal challenger Cunningham, a small business owner who sits on the board of directors for the Simon Fraser Alumni Association and the Burnaby Symphony Orchestra.

They’ll both seek to chip away support from incumbent Siksay, an openly gay contender who has a lengthy history of involvement in church, labour and same sex issues. He served his last term in federal office as the NDP Party critic on Canadian Heritage, housing and Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Transgender and Transsexual issues.

Geoff Dembicki is a staff reporter for The Hook.